UNDERSTANDING TRANSFORMERS FOR TIME SERIES FORECASTING: A CASE STUDY ON MOIRAI

摘要

We give a comprehensive theoretical analysis of transformers as time series pre- diction models, with a focus on MOIRAI (Woo et al., 2024). We study its ap- proximation and generalization capabilities. First, we demonstrate that there exist transformers that fit an autoregressive model on input univariate time series via gradient descent. We then analyze MOIRAI, one of the state-of-the-art multivariate time series prediction models capable of modeling arbitrary number of covariates. We prove that MOIRAI is capable of automatically fitting autoregressive models with an arbitrary number of covariates, offering insights into its design and em- pirical success. For generalization, we establish learning bounds for pretraining when the data satisfies Dobrushin’s condition. Experiments support our theoretical findings, highlighting the efficacy of using transformers for time series forecasting.