Prediction-Powered Adaptive Shrinkage Estimation

摘要

Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a powerful framework for enhancing statistical estimates by combining limited gold-standard data with machine learning (ML) predictions. While prior work has demonstrated PPI’s benefits for individual statistical problems, modern applications require answering numerous parallel statistical questions. We introduce Prediction-Powered Adaptive Shrinkage ($\texttt{PAS}$), a method that bridges PPI with empirical Bayes shrinkage to improve estimation of multiple means. $\texttt{PAS}$ debiases noisy ML predictions $\textit{within}$ each task and then borrows strength $\textit{across}$ tasks by using those same predictions as a reference point for shrinkage. The amount of shrinkage is determined by minimizing an unbiased estimate of risk, and we prove that this tuning strategy is asymptotically optimal. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that $\texttt{PAS}$ adapts to the reliability of the ML predictions and outperforms traditional and modern baselines in large-scale applications.