ReAugment: Targeted Few-Shot Time Series Augmentation via Model Zoo-Guided Reinforcement Learning

摘要

Few-shot time series forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the scarcity of high-quality training data and the risk of severe overfitting. To address this issue, we propose ReAugment, a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that explicitly learns where and how to augment time series data. ReAugment maintains a zoo of forecasting models and measures prediction diversity across them to identify training samples that are most prone to overfitting. These samples serve as anchor points and are used as inputs to the data augmentation process. We then employ an RL approach to learn transformation policies, using a model zoo-guided reward function to bias the transformed data to overfit-prone regions of the training distribution that are most beneficial for generalization. A key advantage of the RL formulation is that it avoids backpropagating gradients through the forecasting models, thereby mitigating gradient vanishing. Experiments across diverse forecasting architectures demonstrate the effectiveness of ReAugment in both few-shot and standard time series forecasting.