Beyond Reactivity: Proactive Adaptive Conformal Inference for Online LLM Factuality

摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce hallucinated outputs, which limit their reliability in high-stakes applications. Conformal prediction can provide guarantees on the correctness and factuality of LLM outputs, but existing approaches rely on the exchangeability assumption, which rarely holds in online settings where user queries and interests change over time. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose **PACE** (**P**roactive **A**daptive **C**onformal Inferenc**E**), a novel framework that sequentially updates the time-varying target miscoverage parameter with a dynamic step size to maintain valid coverage under online distribution shifts. PACE is motivated by the theoretical connections between expected miscoverage error and key factors such as distribution shifts and instantaneous parameter error. It integrates two complementary signals: (1) a proactive shift detection to estimate the magnitude of distribution shifts, and (2) a reactive error that scales updates according to the local coverage gap. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that PACE consistently outperforms advanced adaptive baselines. It reduces the deviation from the target error rate by up to 60\% in QA tasks and accelerates coverage recovery by over 2.5x during abrupt shifts, ensuring stable factuality guarantees without compromising utility and stability.