CausalGame: Benchmarking Causal Thinking of LLM Agents in Games

摘要

Recently, it has received growing attention in building AI Scientist agents with Large Language Models (LLMs). Since scientific discovery fundamentally relies on uncovering causal relationships from observations, the capability of causal thinking that distinguish causation from correlation and hidden biases, is essential to LLM agents. Despite a number of existing benchmarks for AI scientists, none of them are designed with the consideration of hidden biases and confounders, that widely exist in real-world scientific discovery. To this end, we present CausalGame, a benchmark that evaluates the causal thinking capabilities of LLM agents through interactive games. More specifically, we ask LLM agents to actively design experimental protocols, collect observation data and derive a final solution with an explanation report. To emulate realistic scientific discovery challenges, we design 14 game settings with the incorporation of selection bias, noisy measurements, and hidden confounders. The results with 16 frontier LLM agents show that they consistently fail to reason about and recover the underlying causal relationships required to solve the games. CausalGame provides a rigorous measurement of capabilities essential to AI Scientist agents.