Linear Ensembles Wash Away Watermarks: On the Fragility of Distributional Perturbations in LLMs

摘要

Watermarking embeds statistical signatures in AI-generated text for detection and attribution. We reveal a fundamental vulnerability: when users access multiple models (today's reality), watermarks trivially fail. Watermarks perturb output distributions away from the original, and in competitive markets, these perturbations are typically independent across providers. We theoretically prove that averaging output probability distributions recovers the unwatermarked distribution with up to a second-order error term. Empirically, simply averaging 3-5 models cancels out these perturbations. We introduce WASH (Watermark Attenuation via Statistical Hybridisation), which solves practical challenges in ensemble generation: vocabulary misalignment and tokenisation differences across heterogeneous models. Experiments across six watermarking schemes and three LLMs show that detection z-scores drop from 5-300 to **below 2** (below the detection threshold of ~4) when averaging across 3 models, while improving quality by **27.5%** and running **6×** faster than the best baseline on the long sequence generation task. Our results suggest that robust AI-text detection via watermarking requires either accepting this fundamental vulnerability or unprecedented coordination among model providers.