StormInsight: Hierarchical Environmental Forcing and Vertical Coupling for Weather System Evolution

摘要

Nowcasting forms the first line of defense against rapidly evolving weather hazards, where even minutes of delay can lead to severe societal impacts. However, existing systems predominantly extrapolate 2D radar reflectivity, which struggles under rapid intensification regimes. We introduce \N, a multi-scale modeling framework that enables coherent reconstruction of the three-dimensional evolution of convective systems while explicitly conditioning on the ambient environment. \N\ integrates multi-source observations—including radar, satellite, and station—with reanalysis fields through two components: (i) \texttt{\ComponentA} that explicitly disentangles convective system state form vertical thermodynamic coupling and large-scale environmental forcing; (ii) \texttt{\ComponentB} that predicts future echos by adaptively aggregating cross-layer interactions conditioned on evolving environmental conditions. To support comprehensive evaluation, we build a new benchmark \texttt{StormBench} that integrates observational and reanalysis data across regions. On this benchmark,~\N\ consistently achieves the best performance, reducing MAE by 12.4\% and improving the mCSI by 34.0\%. \textit{Dataset and code will be released after the review process}.