Rethinking Time-Series Imputation as Conditional Inference along Temporal Evolution

摘要

Real-world time-series data often suffer from missing observations, hindering long-range temporal modeling. However, most existing imputation methods formulate imputation as conditional reconstruction over limited context, which restricts temporal information propagation and fails to explicitly model temporal evolution. To overcome this limitation, we propose the Conditional Temporal Inference Paradigm (CTIP), which formulates time-series imputation as conditional inference along temporal evolution. Under this paradigm, we introduce CBiT, which leverages a history compression mechanism to encode long-range history into a compact latent space for history-conditioned temporal imputation. In addition, we adopt a partitioned modeling strategy that distinguishes historical context and temporal imputation targets with only linear-time complexity. Extensive experiments on multiple public benchmarks show that CBiT improves imputation accuracy by reducing Masked MAE and Masked RMSE by 27.3% and 18.6%, respectively, across different missing rates.