Surprisal Minimisation over Goal-directed Alternatives Predicts Production Choice in Dialogue

摘要

We model utterance production as probabilistic cost-sensitive choice over contextual alternatives, using information-theoretic notions of cost. We distinguish between goal-directed alternatives that realise a fixed communicative intent and goal-agnostic alternatives defined only by contextual plausibility, allowing us to derive speaker- and listener-oriented interpretations of different cost measures. We present a procedure to generate both types of alternative sets using language models. Analysing production choices in open-ended dialogue under both deterministic and noisy cost minimisation, we find that surprisal minimisation relative to goal-directed alternatives provides the strongest explanation of production choices. Uniformity-based costs show weaker overall predictive power, but their influence increases markedly when evaluated relative to goal-agnostic alternatives, consistent with listener-oriented accounts. More broadly, our study suggests that alternative-conditioned optimisation with LM-generated alternatives provides a principled framework for studying speaker and listener pressures in naturalistic language production.