Simulating Crisis Cognition: A Computational Framework for Hypothesis Generation in Crisis Communication

摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable fidelity in simulating social dynamics, yet using them to inform high-stakes crisis policy requires rigorous causal evaluation. We introduce CRISIS COGNITION, a framework rooted in generative Structural Causal Models (SCM) that functions as an in-silico hypothesis generator. By coupling real-world telemetry with 1,813 agents, we conduct a counterfactual simulation to evaluate communication strategies. Unlike prior descriptive work, we employ a Stratified Analysis to strictly control for personality confounders. Our simulations generate a computational hypothesis: within the LLM’s generative process, emotional scaffolding serves as a functional prerequisite to unlock valid reasoning paths for high-neuroticism agents. Crucially, we identify a “Sedative Effect” in simultaneous interventions, confirming that the sequence of support is as vital as the content. This framework provides a rigorous testbed for evaluating strategies before human-subject trials.