A Novel Approach for Longitudinal Modeling of Aging Health and Predicting Mortality Rates

摘要

Aging is a complex stochastic process that affects healthy functioning through various pathways. In contrast to the more commonly used cross-sectional methods, our research focuses on longitudinal modeling of aging, a less explored but crucial area. We have developed a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) model, at the forefront of aging research, designed to accurately forecast the health trajectories and survival rates of individuals. This model adeptly delineates the connections between different health indicators and provides clear, interpretable results. Our approach utilizes the SDE framework to encapsulate the inherent uncertainty in the aging process. Moreover, it incorporates a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to integrate past health data into future health projections. We plan to train and test our model using a comprehensive dataset tailored for aging studies. This model is not only computationally cost-effective but also highly relevant in assessing health risks in older populations, particularly for those at high risk. It can serve as an essential tool in anticipating and preparing for challenges like infectious disease outbreaks. Overall, our research aims to improve health equity and global health security significantly, offering substantial benefits to public health and deepening our understanding of the aging process.