CausalMob: Causal Human Mobility Prediction with LLMs-derived Human Intentions toward Public Events

摘要

Large-scale human mobility exhibits spatial and temporal patterns that can assist policymakers in decision making. Although traditional prediction models attempt to capture these patterns, they are often affected by nonperiodic public events, such as disasters and occasional celebrations. Since regular human mobility patterns are affected by these events, estimating their causal effects is critical to accurate mobility predictions. News articles provide unique perspectives on these events, though processing them is a challenge. In this study, we propose a causality based prediction model, CausalMob, to analyze the causal effects of public events. We first utilize large language models (LLMs) to extract human intentions from news and transform them into features that act as causal treatments. Next, the model learns representations of spatio-temporal regional covariates from multiple data sources to serve as confounders for causal inference. Finally, we present a causal effect estimation framework to ensure that event features remain independent of confounders during prediction. Based on large-scale real-world data, the experimental results show that the proposed model excels in human mobility prediction, outperforming state-of-the-art models.