Aggregating Information and Preferences under Different Coordination Ability

摘要

We investigate majority voting where agents possess private information about an unobservable ground truth that determines their preferences. In such settings, agents may hold different preferences and (collectively) engage in counterintuitive strategic behaviors. Previous work either assumes strategic behavior occurs without coordination or with unlimited coordination, yielding overly inclusive or exclusive predictions about voting outcomes. We incorporate coordination ability—the largest coalition size at which agents could strategically coordinate—into the analysis. Under the ex-ante Bayesian k-strong equilibrium framework, where no group of at most k agents can benefit from deviation, we provide closed-form characterizations of when informed majority decisions, the decision favored by the majority if the ground truth is common knowledge, are achievable. Specifically, we determine (1) when all k-strong equilibria reach the informed majority decision and (2) when at least one such equilibrium exists. These conditions depend on three factors: coordination ability, fraction of majority agents, and information structure. The boundary for the second question exhibits surprising complexity--non-continuous, non-linear, and segmental. Our results reveal the complicated landscape and provide refined predictions for strategic behavior across different coordination levels.