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Christina P. Walker, Daniel S. Schiff, Kaylyn Jackson Schiff

This article presents the Political Deepfakes Incidents Database (PDID), a collection of politically-salient deepfakes, encompassing synthetically-created videos, images, and less-sophisticated `cheapfakes.' The project is driven by the rise of generative AI in politics, ongoing policy efforts to address harms, and the need to connect AI incidents and political communication research. The database contains political deepfake content, metadata, and researcher-coded descriptors drawn from political science, public policy, communication, and misinformation studies. It aims to help reveal the prevalence, trends, and impact of political deepfakes, such as those featuring major political figures or events. The PDID can benefit policymakers, researchers, journalists, fact-checkers, and the public by providing insights into deepfake usage, aiding in regulation, enabling in-depth analyses, supporting fact-checking and trust-building efforts, and raising awareness of political deepfakes. It is suitable for research and application on media effects, political discourse, AI ethics, technology governance, media literacy, and countermeasures.

Eli Sherman, Ian Eisenberg

As AI systems’ sophistication and proliferation have increased, awareness of the risks has grown proportionally. The AI industry is increasingly emphasizing the need for transparency, with proposals ranging from standardizing use of technical disclosures, like model cards, to regulatory licensing regimes. Since the AI value chain is complicated, with actors bringing varied expertise, perspectives, and values, it is crucial that consumers of transparency disclosures be able to understand the risks of the AI system in question. In this paper we propose a risk profiling standard which can guide downstream decision-making, including triaging further risk assessment, informing procurement and deployment, and directing regulatory frameworks. The standard is built on our proposed taxonomy of AI risks, which distills the wide variety of risks proposed in the literature into a high-level categorization. We outline the myriad data sources needed to construct informative Risk Profiles and propose a template and methodology for collating risk information into a standard, yet flexible, structure. We apply this methodology to a number of prominent AI systems using publicly available information. To conclude, we discuss design decisions for the profiles and future work.

Kathrin Grosse, Lukas Bieringer, Tarek R. Besold, Battista Biggio, Alexandre Alahi

In contrast to vast academic efforts to study AI security, few real-world reports of AI security incidents exist. Released incidents prevent a thorough investigation of the attackers' motives, as crucial information about the company and AI application is missing. As a consequence, it often remains unknown how to avoid incidents. We tackle this gap and combine previous reports with freshly collected incidents to a small database of 32 AI security incidents. We analyze the attackers' target and goal, influencing factors, causes, and mitigations. Many incidents stem from non-compliance with best practices in security and privacy-enhancing technologies. In the case of direct AI attacks, access control may provide some mitigation, but there is little scientific work on best practices. Our paper is thus a call for action to address these gaps.

Arihant Chadda, Sean McGregor, Jesse Hostetler, Andrea Brennen

Intelligent system audits are labor-intensive assurance activities that are typically performed once and discarded along with the opportunity to programmatically test all similar products for the market. This study illustrates how several incidents (i.e., harms) involving Named Entity Recognition (NER) can be prevented by scaling up a previously-performed audit of NER systems. The audit instrument's diagnostic capacity is maintained through a security model that protects the underlying data (i.e., addresses Goodhart's Law). An open-source evaluation infrastructure is released along with an example derived from a real-world audit that reports aggregated findings without exposing the underlying data.

Zakaria Mehrab, Logan Stundal, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Samarth Swarup, Bryan Leroy Lewis, Henning S. Mortveit, Christopher L. Barrett, Abhishek Pandey, Chad R. Wells, Alison P. Galvani 等

Large-scale population displacements arising from conflict-induced forced migration generate uncertainty and introduce several policy challenges. Addressing these concerns requires an interdisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge from both computational modeling and social sciences. We propose a generalized computational agent-based modeling framework grounded by Theory of Planned Behavior to model conflict-induced migration outflows within Ukraine during the start of that conflict in 2022. Existing migration modeling frameworks that attempt to address policy implications primarily focus on destination while leaving absent a generalized computational framework grounded by social theory focused on the conflict-induced region. We propose an agent-based framework utilizing a spatiotemporal gravity model and a Bi-threshold model over a Graph Dynamical System to update migration status of agents in conflict-induced regions at fine temporal and spatial granularity. This approach significantly outperforms previous work when examining the case of Russian invasion in Ukraine. Policy implications of the proposed framework are demonstrated by modeling the migration behavior of Ukrainian civilians attempting to flee from regions encircled by Russian forces. We also showcase the generalizability of the model by simulating a past conflict in Burundi, an alternative conflict setting. Results demonstrate the utility of the framework for assessing conflict-induced migration in varied settings as well as identifying vulnerable civilian populations.

Maira Alvi, Tim French, Philip Keymer, Rachel Cardell-Oliver

Complex urban systems can be difficult to monitor, diagnose and manage because the complete states of such systems are only partially observable with sensors. State estimation techniques can be used to determine the underlying dynamic behavior of such complex systems with their highly non-linear processes and external time-variant influences. States can be estimated by clustering observed sensor readings. However, clustering performance degrades as the number of sensors and readings (i.e. feature dimension) increases. To address this problem, we propose a framework that learns a feature-centric lower dimensional representation of data for clustering to support analysis of system dynamics. We propose Unsupervised Feature Attention with Compact Representation (UFACR) to rank features contributing to a cluster assignment. These weighted features are then used to learn a reduced-dimension temporal representation of the data with a deep-learning model. The resulting low-dimensional representation can be effectively clustered into states. UFACR is evaluated on real-world and synthetic wastewater treatment plant data sets, and feature ranking outcomes were validated by Wastewater treatment domain experts. Our quantitative and qualitative experimental analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of UFACR for uncovering system dynamics in an automated and unsupervised manner to offer guidance to wastewater engineers to enhance industrial productivity and treatment efficiency.

Neil Thompson, Martin Fleming, Benny J. Tang, Anna M. Pastwa, Nicholas Borge, Brian C. Goehring, Subhro Das

Deep learning, the most important subfield of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) over the last decade, is considered one of the fundamental technologies underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution. But despite its record-breaking history, deep learning’s enormous appetite for compute and data means that sometimes it can be too costly to practically use. In this paper, we connect technical insights from deep learning scaling laws and transfer learning with the economics of IT to propose a framework for estimating the cost of deep learning computer vision systems to achieve a desired level of accuracy. Our tool can be of practical use to AI practitioners in industry or academia to guide investment decisions.

Md Nasim, Xinghang Zhang, Anter El-Azab, Yexiang Xue

The availability of tera-byte scale experiment data calls for AI driven approaches which automatically discover scientific models from data. Nonetheless, significant challenges present in AI-driven scientific discovery: (i) The annotation of large scale datasets requires fundamental re-thinking in developing scalable crowdsourcing tools. (ii) The learning of scientific models from data calls for innovations beyond black-box neural nets. (iii) Novel visualization & diagnosis tools are needed for the collaboration of experimental and theoretical physicists, and computer scientists. We present Phase-Field-Lab platform for end-to-end phase field model discovery, which automatically discovers phase field physics models from experiment data, integrating experimentation, crowdsourcing, simulation and learning. Phase-Field-Lab combines (i) a streamlined annotation tool which reduces the annotation time (by ~50-75%), while increasing annotation accuracy compared to baseline; (ii) an end-to-end neural model which automatically learns phase field models from data by embedding phase field simulation and existing domain knowledge into learning; and (iii) novel interfaces and visualizations to integrate our platform into the scientific discovery cycle of domain scientists. Our platform is deployed in the analysis of nano-structure evolution in materials under extreme conditions (high temperature and irradiation). Our approach reveals new properties of nano-void defects, which otherwise cannot be detected via manual analysis.

Serdar Kadıoğlu, Bernard Kleynhans

We present a modular recommender system framework that tightly integrates yet maintains the independence of individual components, thus satisfying two of the most critical aspects of industrial applications, generality and specificity. On the one hand, we ensure that each component remains self-contained and is ready to serve in other applications beyond recommender systems. On the other hand, when these components are combined, a unified theme emerges for recommender systems. We present the details of each component in the context of recommender systems and other applications. We release each component as an open-source library, and most importantly, we release their integration under MAB2REC, an industry-strength open-source software for building bandit-based recommender systems. By bringing standalone components together, Mab2Rec realizes a powerful and scalable toolchain to build and deploy business-relevant personalization applications. Finally, we share our experience and best practices for user training, adoption, performance evaluation, deployment, and model governance within the enterprise and the broader community.

Xi Yang, Rohan R. Arora, Saurabh Jha, Chandra Narayanaswami, Cheuk Lam, Jerrold Leichter, Yu Deng, Daby M. Sow

The widespread adoption of public and hybrid clouds, along with elastic resources and various automation tools for dynamic deployment, has accelerated the rapid provisioning of compute resources as needed. Despite these advancements, numerous resources persist unnecessarily due to factors such as poor digital hygiene, risk aversion, or the absence of effective tools, resulting in substantial costs and energy consumption. Existing threshold-based techniques prove inadequate in effectively addressing this challenge. To address this issue, we propose an unsupervised machine learning framework to automatically identify resources that can be de-provisioned completely or summoned on a schedule. Application of this approach to enterprise data has yielded promising initial results, facilitating the segregation of productive workloads with recurring demands from non-productive ones.

Monika Wysoczanska, Moran Beladev, Karen Lastmann Assaraf, Fengjun Wang, Ofri Kleinfeld, Gil Amsalem, Hadas Harush Boke

Image collection summarization techniques aim to present a compact representation of an image gallery through a carefully selected subset of images that captures its semantic content. When it comes to web content, however, the ideal selection can vary based on the user's specific intentions and preferences. This is particularly relevant at Booking.com, where presenting properties and their visual summaries that align with users' expectations is crucial. To address this challenge, in this work, we consider user intentions in the summarization of property visuals by analyzing property reviews and extracting the most significant aspects mentioned by users. By incorporating the insights from reviews in our visual summaries, we enhance the summaries by presenting the relevant content to a user. Moreover, we achieve it without the need for costly annotations. Our experiments, including human perceptual studies, demonstrate the superiority of our cross-modal approach, which we coin as CrossSummarizer over the no-personalization and image-based clustering baselines.

Bhavan Vasu, Steven Lu, Emily Dunkel, Kiri L. Wagstaff, Kevin Grimes, Michael Mcauley

The NASA Planetary Data System (PDS) hosts millions of images of planets, moons, and other bodies collected throughout many missions. The ever-expanding nature of data and user engagement demands an interpretable content classification system to support scientific discovery and individual curiosity. In this paper, we leverage a prototype-based architecture to enable users to understand and validate the evidence used by a classifier trained on images from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover mission. In addition to providing explanations, we investigate the diversity and correctness of evidence used by the content-based classifier. The work presented in this paper will be deployed on the PDS Image Atlas, replacing its non-interpretable counterpart.

Krishu K Thapa, Bhupinderjeet Singh, Supriya Savalkar, Alan Fern, Kirti Rajagopalan, Ananth Kalyanaraman

Snow Water-Equivalent (SWE)—the amount of water available if snowpack is melted—is a key decision variable used by water management agencies to make irrigation, flood control, power generation, and drought management decisions. SWE values vary spatiotemporally—affected by weather, topography, and other environmental factors. While daily SWE can be measured by Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations with requisite instrumentation, such stations are spatially sparse requiring interpolation techniques to create spatiotemporal complete data. While recent efforts have explored machine learning (ML) for SWE prediction, a number of recent ML advances have yet to be considered. The main contribution of this paper is to explore one such ML advance, attention mechanisms, for SWE prediction. Our hypothesis is that attention has a unique ability to capture and exploit correlations that may exist across locations or the temporal spectrum (or both). We present a generic attention-based modeling framework for SWE prediction and adapt it to capture spatial attention and temporal attention. Our experimental results on 323 SNOTEL stations in the Western U.S. demonstrate that our attention-based models outperform other machine-learning approaches. We also provide key results highlighting the differences between spatial and temporal attention in this context and a roadmap toward deployment for generating spatially-complete SWE maps.

Santosh Palaskar, Vijay Ekambaram, Arindam Jati, Neelamadhav Gantayat, Avirup Saha, Seema Nagar, Nam H. Nguyen, Pankaj Dayama, Renuka Sindhgatta, Prateeti Mohapatra 等

The efficiency of business processes relies on business key performance indicators (Biz-KPIs), that can be negatively impacted by IT failures. Business and IT Observability (BizITObs) data fuses both Biz-KPIs and IT event channels together as multivariate time series data. Forecasting Biz-KPIs in advance can enhance efficiency and revenue through proactive corrective measures. However, BizITObs data generally exhibit both useful and noisy inter-channel interactions between Biz-KPIs and IT events that need to be effectively decoupled. This leads to suboptimal forecasting performance when existing multivariate forecasting models are employed. To address this, we introduce AutoMixer, a time-series Foundation Model (FM) approach, grounded on the novel technique of channel-compressed pretrain and finetune workflows. AutoMixer leverages an AutoEncoder for channel-compressed pretraining and integrates it with the advanced TSMixer model for multivariate time series forecasting. This fusion greatly enhances the potency of TSMixer for accurate forecasts and also generalizes well across several downstream tasks. Through detailed experiments and dashboard analytics, we show AutoMixer's capability to consistently improve the Biz-KPI's forecasting accuracy (by 11-15%) which directly translates to actionable business insights.

Anh N. Nhu, Abderahmen Zoghbi

The Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) is an International Space Station (ISS)-based Space Telescope developed by NASA and devoted to the study of high-energy X-Ray sources in the universe, including but not limited to neutron stars, pulsars, and black holes in stellar systems and active galactic nuclei (AGN). One prominent problem with NICER observations is the highly variable background spectra, obscuring actual signals of astrophysical sources and negatively affecting scientific analysis of the targets. Therefore, obtaining accurate estimations of the background spectra is crucial to filter the noise and facilitate better scientific discoveries of new astronomical objects. In this paper, we propose the very first Deep Neural Network architecture to model the NICER background spectra variation using information about the spacecraft and telescope associated with each observation. In particular, we develop a BERT-based architecture with tokenizers applied to different groups of features in our tabular dataset. We also introduce an adapted Tabular Deep Residual Network architecture as the predictor following the Transformer modules in our network. We show that our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art background model developed by the NICER team in most evaluation metrics. Finally, we discuss pathways and future work for the deployment of this model on NASA’s next versions of HEASARC Software packages.

Leopold Müller, Patrick Hemmer, Moritz Queisner, Igor Sauer, Simeon Allmendinger, Johannes Jakubik, Michael Vössing, Niklas Kühl

A significant challenge in image-guided surgery is the accurate measurement task of relevant structures such as vessel segments, resection margins, or bowel lengths. While this task is an essential component of many surgeries, it involves substantial human effort and is prone to inaccuracies. In this paper, we develop a novel human-AI-based method for laparoscopic measurements utilizing stereo vision that has been guided by practicing surgeons. Based on a holistic qualitative requirements analysis, this work proposes a comprehensive measurement method, which comprises state-of-the-art machine learning architectures, such as RAFT-Stereo and YOLOv8. The developed method is assessed in various realistic experimental evaluation environments. Our results outline the potential of our method achieving high accuracies in distance measurements with errors below 1 mm. Furthermore, on-surface measurements demonstrate robustness when applied in challenging environments with textureless regions. Overall, by addressing the inherent challenges of image-guided surgery, we lay the foundation for a more robust and accurate solution for intra- and postoperative measurements, enabling more precise, safe, and efficient surgical procedures.

Prateeti Mohapatra, Gargi Dasgupta

Technical support services get several thousand voice calls every year. These calls vary across a range of technical issues or maintenance requests for a suite of hardware and software products. On receiving the call, a support agent creates a ser- vice request artifact that contains her interpretation of the customer’s problem. This service request goes through the life cycle of the problem remediation process with the resolution also being recorded as part of the service request. It has been empirically observed that the actual complaint voiced by the customer is often different from the recorded interpretation in the service request. The service request created by sup- port agents runs the risk of missing key information elements present in the customer voice records. In this paper, we build a framework that taps into voice calls and uses unsupervised and supervised learning methods to enrich the service requests with additional information. The enriched data is then used for automated problem resolution.

Karol Lynch, Bradley Eck, Joern Ploennigs

Mathematical formulas give concise representations of a document's key ideas in many natural sciences and engineering domains. The symbols that make up formulas carry semantic meaning that may differ by document or equation. What does ? mean in a given paper? Interpreting the symbols that comprise formulas requires identifying descriptions from the surrounding text. We approach this task of symbol description reading as an application of current AI technologies targeting the tuning of large language models for particular domains and automation of machine learning. Our pipeline integrates AI question answering and natural language processing to read symbol descriptions. We consider extractive and generative AI model variations and apply our pipeline on two example tasks of symbol description reading. Promising results provide motivation for wider deployment for which we describe a microservice architecture and related challenges.

ChungYi Lin, Shen-Lung Tung, Hung-Ting Su, Winston H. Hsu

To address the limitations of traffic prediction from location-bound detectors, we present Geographical Cellular Traffic (GCT) flow, a novel data source that leverages the extensive coverage of cellular traffic to capture mobility patterns. Our extensive analysis validates its potential for transportation. Focusing on vehicle-related GCT flow prediction, we propose a graph neural network that integrates multivariate, temporal, and spatial facets for improved accuracy. Experiments reveal our model's superiority over baselines, especially in long-term predictions. We also highlight the potential for GCT flow integration into transportation systems.

Bingxuan Li, Antonio Castellanos, Pengyi Shi, Amy Ward

Incarceration-diversion programs have proven effective in reducing recidivism. Accurate prediction of the number of individuals with different characteristics in the program and their program outcomes based on given eligibility criteria is crucial for successful implementation, because this prediction serves as the foundation for determining the appropriate program size and the consequent staffing requirements. However, this task poses challenges due to the complexities arising from varied outcomes and lengths-of-stay for the diverse individuals in incarceration-diversion programs. In collaboration with an Illinois government agency, we develop a framework to address these issues. Our framework combines ML and queueing model simulation, providing accurate predictions for the program census and interpretable insights into program dynamics and the impact of different decisions in counterfactual scenarios. Additionally, we deploy a user-friendly web app beta-version that allows program managers to visualize census data by counties and race groups. We showcase two decision support use cases: Changing program admission criteria and launching similar programs in new counties.