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Theory · Online Learning and Bandits

Anastasios Angelopoulos, Rina Barber, Stephen Bates

We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously estimate a population quantile when it exists. Our theory and experiments indicate substantially improved practical properties: in particular, when the distribution is stable, the coverage is close to the desired level *for every time point*, not just on average over the observed sequence.

Deep Learning · Robustness

Alaa Anani, Tobias Lorenz, Bernt Schiele, Mario Fritz

Certification for machine learning is proving that no adversarial sample can evade a model within a range under certain conditions, a necessity for safety-critical domains. Common certification methods for segmentation use a flat set of fine-grained classes, leading to high abstain rates due to model uncertainty across many classes. We propose a novel, more practical setting, which certifies pixels within a multi-level hierarchy, and adaptively relaxes the certification to a coarser level for unstable components classic methods would abstain from, effectively lowering the abstain rate whilst providing more certified semantically meaningful information. We mathematically formulate the problem setup, introduce an adaptive hierarchical certification algorithm and prove the correctness of its guarantees. Since certified accuracy does not take the loss of information into account for coarser classes, we introduce the Certified Information Gain ($\mathrm{CIG}$) metric, which is proportional to the class granularity level. Our extensive experiments on the datasets Cityscapes, PASCAL-Context, ACDC and COCO-Stuff demonstrate that our adaptive algorithm achieves a higher $\mathrm{CIG}$ and lower abstain rate compared to the current state-of-the-art certification method. Our code can be found here: [https://github.com/AlaaAnani/adaptive-certify](https://github.com/AlaaAnani/adaptive-certify).

Reinforcement Learning

Philip Amortila, Dylan Foster, Akshay Krishnamurthy

Exploration is a major challenge in reinforcement learning, especially for high-dimensional domains that require function approximation. We propose exploration objectives---policy optimization objectives that enable downstream maximization of any reward function---as a conceptual framework to systematize the study of exploration. We introduce a new objective, L1-Coverage, which generalizes previous exploration schemes and supports three fundamental desiderata: 1. *Intrinsic complexity control.* L1-Coverage is associated with a structural parameter, L1-Coverability, which reflects the intrinsic statistical difficulty of the underlying MDP, subsuming Block and Low-Rank MDPs. 2. *Efficient planning.* For a known MDP, L1-Coverage efficiently reduces to standard policy optimization, allowing flexible integration with off-the-shelf methods such as policy gradient and Q-learning approaches. 3. *Efficient exploration.* L1-Coverage enables the first computationally efficient model-based and model-free algorithms for online (reward-free or reward-driven) reinforcement learning in MDPs with low coverability. Empirically, we find that L1-Coverage effectively drives off-the-shelf policy optimization algorithms to explore the state space.

Theory · Optimization

Konstantinos Ameranis, Adela DePavia, Lorenzo Orecchia, Erasmo Tani

A fundamental approach to semi-supervised learning is to leverage the structure of the sample space to diffuse label information from annotated examples to unlabeled points. Traditional methods model the input data points as a graph and rely on fast algorithms for solving Laplacian systems of equations, such as those defining PageRank. However, previous work has demonstrated that graph-based models fail to capture higher-order relations, such as group membership, which are better modeled by hypergraphs. Unfortunately, the scalable application of hypergraph models has been hampered by the non-linearity of the hypergraph Laplacian. In this paper, we present highly scalable algorithms for hypergraph primitives, such as hypergraph PageRank vectors and hypergraph Laplacian systems, over general families of hypergraphs. In addition to giving strong theoretical guarantees, we empirically showcase the speed of our algorithms on benchmark instances of semi-supervised learning on categorical data. We exploit their generality to improve semi-supervised manifold clustering via hypergraph models. By providing significant speed-ups on fundamental hypergraph tasks, our algorithms enable the deployment of hypergraph models on a massive scale.

Probabilistic Methods · Graphical Models

Taha Ameen Ur Rahman, Bruce Hajek

Two models are introduced to study the problem of matching two correlated graphs when some of the nodes are corrupt. In the weak model, a random subset of nodes in one or both graphs can interact randomly with their network. For this model, it is shown that no estimator can correctly recover a positive fraction of the corrupt nodes. Necessary conditions for any estimator to correctly identify and match all the uncorrupt nodes are derived, and it is shown that these conditions are also sufficient for the k-core estimator. In the strong model, an adversarially selected subset of nodes in one or both graphs can interact arbitrarily with their network. For this model, detection of corrupt nodes is impossible. Even so, we show that if only one of the networks is compromised, then under appropriate conditions, the maximum overlap estimator can correctly match a positive fraction of nodes albeit without explicitly identifying them.

Luca Ambrogioni

The behavior of a GP regression depends on the choice of covariance function. Stationary covariance functions are preferred in machine learning applications. However, (non-periodic) stationary covariance functions are always mean reverting and can therefore exhibit pathological behavior when applied to data that does not relax to a fixed global mean value. In this paper we show that it is possible to use improper GP priors with infinite variance to define processes that are stationary but not mean reverting. To this aim, we use of non-positive kernels that can only be defined in this limit regime. The resulting posterior distributions can be computed analytically and it involves a simple correction of the usual formulas. The main contribution of the paper is the introduction of a large family of smooth non-reverting covariance functions that closely resemble the kernels commonly used in the GP literature (e.g. squared exponential and Matérn class). By analyzing both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that these non-positive kernels solve some known pathologies of mean reverting GP regression while retaining most of the favorable properties of ordinary smooth stationary kernels.

Theory · Optimization

Nico Alvarado, Hans Lobel

During the last few years, the field of dynamical systems has been developing innovative tools to study the asymptotic behavior of different optimizers in the context of neural networks. In this work, we redefine an extensively studied optimizer, employing classical techniques from hyperbolic geometry. This new definition is linked to a non-linear differential equation as a continuous limit. Additionally, by utilizing Lyapunov stability concepts, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of its critical points.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Patrick Altmeyer, Andrew Demetriou, Antony Bartlett, Cynthia C. S. Liem

Developments in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and particularly large language models (LLMs), have created a 'perfect storm’ for observing 'sparks’ of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that are spurious. Like simpler models, LLMs distill meaningful representations in their latent embeddings that have been shown to correlate with external variables. Nonetheless, the correlation of such representations has often been linked to human-like intelligence in the latter but not the former. We probe models of varying complexity including random projections, matrix decompositions, deep autoencoders and transformers: all of them successfully distill information that can be used to predict latent or external variables and yet none of them have previously been linked to AGI. We argue and empirically demonstrate that the finding of meaningful patterns in latent spaces of models cannot be seen as evidence in favor of AGI. Additionally, we review literature from the social sciences that shows that humans are prone to seek such patterns and anthropomorphize. We conclude that both the methodological setup and common public image of AI are ideal for the misinterpretation that correlations between model representations and some variables of interest are 'caused' by the model's understanding of underlying 'ground truth’ relationships. We, therefore, call for the academic community to exercise extra caution, and to be keenly aware of principles of academic integrity, in interpreting and communicating about AI research outcomes.

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Matias Altamirano, Francois-Xavier Briol, Jeremias Knoblauch

To enable closed form conditioning, a common assumption in Gaussian process (GP) regression is independent and identically distributed Gaussian observation noise. This strong and simplistic assumption is often violated in practice, which leads to unreliable inferences and uncertainty quantification. Unfortunately, existing methods for robustifying GPs break closed-form conditioning, which makes them less attractive to practitioners and significantly more computationally expensive. In this paper, we demonstrate how to perform provably robust and conjugate Gaussian process (RCGP) regression at virtually no additional cost using generalised Bayesian inference. RCGP is particularly versatile as it enables exact conjugate closed form updates in all settings where standard GPs admit them. To demonstrate its strong empirical performance, we deploy RCGP for problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to sparse variational Gaussian processes.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Youssef Allouah, Anastasiia Koloskova, Aymane Firdoussi, Martin Jaggi, Rachid Guerraoui

Decentralized learning is appealing as it enables the scalable usage of large amounts of distributed data and resources without resorting to any central entity, while promoting privacy since every user minimizes the direct exposure of their data. Yet, without additional precautions, curious users can still leverage models obtained from their peers to violate privacy. In this paper, we propose Decor, a variant of decentralized SGD with differential privacy (DP) guarantees. Essentially, in Decor, users securely exchange randomness seeds in one communication round to generate pairwise-canceling correlated Gaussian noises, which are injected to protect local models at every communication round. We theoretically and empirically show that, for arbitrary connected graphs, Decor matches the central DP optimal privacy-utility trade-off. We do so under SecLDP, our new relaxation of local DP, which protects all user communications against an external eavesdropper and curious users, assuming that every pair of connected users shares a secret, i.e., an information hidden to all others. The main theoretical challenge is to control the accumulation of non-canceling correlated noise due to network sparsity. We also propose a companion SecLDP privacy accountant for public use.

Optimization · Large Scale, Parallel and Distributed

Youssef Allouah, Sadegh Farhadkhani, Rachid Guerraoui, Nirupam Gupta, Rafael Pinot, Geovani Rizk, Sasha Voitovych

The possibility of adversarial (a.k.a., Byzantine) clients makes federated learning (FL) prone to arbitrary manipulation. The natural approach to robustify FL against adversarial clients is to replace the simple averaging operation at the server in the standard $\mathsf{FedAvg}$ algorithm by a robust averaging rule. While a significant amount of work has been devoted to studying the convergence of federated robust averaging (which we denote by $\mathsf{FedRo}$), prior work has largely ignored the impact of client subsampling and local steps, two fundamental FL characteristics. While client subsampling increases the effective fraction of Byzantine clients, local steps increase the drift between the local updates computed by honest (i.e., non-Byzantine) clients. Consequently, a careless deployment of $\mathsf{FedRo}$ could yield poor performance. We validate this observation by presenting an in-depth analysis of $\mathsf{FedRo}$ tightly analyzing the impact of client subsampling and local steps. Specifically, we present a sufficient condition on client subsampling for nearly-optimal convergence of $\mathsf{FedRo}$ (for smooth non-convex loss). Also, we show that the rate of improvement in learning accuracy diminishes with respect to the number of clients subsampled, as soon as the sample size exceeds a threshold value. Interestingly, we also observe that under a careful choice of step-sizes, the learning error due to Byzantine clients decreases with the number of local steps. We validate our theory by experiments on the FEMNIST and CIFAR-$10$ image classification tasks.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Zeyuan Allen-Zhu, Yuanzhi Li

Large language models (LLMs) can store a vast amount of world knowledge, often extractable via question-answering (e.g., "What is Abraham Lincoln's birthday?''). However, do they answer such questions based on exposure to similar questions during training (i.e., cheating), or by genuinely learning to extract knowledge from sources like Wikipedia? In this paper, we investigate this issue using a controlled biography dataset. We find a strong correlation between the model's ability to extract knowledge and various _diversity measures_ of the training data. **Essentially**, for knowledge to be reliably extracted, it must be sufficiently augmented (e.g., through paraphrasing, sentence shuffling) _during pretraining_. Without such augmentation, knowledge may be memorized but not extractable, leading to 0% accuracy, regardless of subsequent instruction fine-tuning. To understand why this occurs, we employ (nearly) linear probing to demonstrate a strong connection between the observed correlation and _how the model internally encodes knowledge_ --- whether it is linearly encoded in the hidden embeddings of entity names or distributed across other token embeddings in the training text. **This paper provides several key recommendations for LLM pretraining in the industry:** (1) rewrite the pretraining data --- using small, auxiliary models --- to provide knowledge augmentation, and (2) incorporate more instruction-finetuning data into the pretraining stage before it becomes too late.

Theory · Learning Theory

Meysam Alishahi, Jeff Phillips

We refine and generalize what is known about coresets for classification problems via the sensitivity sampling framework. Such coresets seek the smallest possible subsets of input data, so one can optimize a loss function on the coreset and ensure approximation guarantees with respect to the original data. Our analysis provides the first no dimensional coresets, so the size does not depend on the dimension. Moreover, our results are general, apply for distributional input and can use iid samples, so provide sample complexity bounds, and work for a variety of loss functions. A key tool we develop is a Radamacher complexity version of the main sensitivity sampling approach, which can be of independent interest.

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Mathieu Alain, So Takao, Brooks Paige, Marc Deisenroth

In recent years, there has been considerable interest in developing machine learning models on graphs to account for topological inductive biases. In particular, recent attention has been given to Gaussian processes on such structures since they can additionally account for uncertainty. However, graphs are limited to modelling relations between two vertices. In this paper, we go beyond this dyadic setting and consider polyadic relations that include interactions between vertices, edges and one of their generalisations, known as cells. Specifically, we propose Gaussian processes on cellular complexes, a generalisation of graphs that captures interactions between these higher-order cells. One of our key contributions is the derivation of two novel kernels, one that generalises the graph Matérn kernel and one that additionally mixes information of different cell types.

Optimization · First-order

Ahmet Alacaoglu, Donghwan Kim, Stephen Wright

We focus on constrained, $L$-smooth, potentially stochastic and nonconvex-nonconcave min-max problems either satisfying $\rho$-cohypomonotonicity or admitting a solution to the $\rho$-weakly Minty Variational Inequality (MVI), where larger values of the parameter $\rho>0$ correspond to a greater degree of nonconvexity. These problem classes include examples in two player reinforcement learning, interaction dominant min-max problems, and certain synthetic test problems on which classical min-max algorithms fail. It has been conjectured that first-order methods can tolerate a value of $\rho$ no larger than $\frac{1}{L}$, but existing results in the literature have stagnated at the tighter requirement $\rho < \frac{1}{2L}$. With a simple argument, we obtain optimal or best-known complexity guarantees with cohypomonotonicity or weak MVI conditions for $\rho < \frac{1}{L}$. First main insight for the improvements in the convergence analyses is to harness the recently proposed *conic nonexpansiveness* property of operators. Second, we provide a refined analysis for inexact Halpern iteration that relaxes the required inexactness level to improve some state-of-the-art complexity results even for constrained stochastic convex-concave min-max problems. Third, we analyze a stochastic inexact Krasnosel'skii-Mann iteration with a multilevel Monte Carlo estimator when the assumptions only hold with respect to a solution.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Mohammad Al-Jarrah, Niyizhen Jin, Bamdad Hosseini, Amirhossein Taghvaei

This paper is concerned with the problem of nonlinear filtering, i.e., computing the conditional distribution of the state of a stochastic dynamical system given a history of noisy partial observations. Conventional sequential importance resampling (SIR) particle filters suffer from fundamental limitations, in scenarios involving degenerate likelihoods or high-dimensional states, due to the weight degeneracy issue. In this paper, we explore an alternative method, which is based on estimating the Brenier optimal transport (OT) map from the current prior distribution of the state to the posterior distribution at the next time step. Unlike SIR particle filters, the OT formulation does not require the analytical form of the likelihood. Moreover, it allows us to harness the approximation power of neural networks to model complex and multi-modal distributions and employ stochastic optimization algorithms to enhance scalability. Extensive numerical experiments are presented that compare the OT method to the SIR particle filter and the ensemble Kalman filter, evaluating the performance in terms of sample efficiency, high-dimensional scalability, and the ability to capture complex and multi-modal distributions.

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Emmanuel Akeweje, Mimi Zhang

We propose an ensemble clustering framework to uncover latent cluster labels in functional data generated from a Gaussian process mixture. Our method exploits the fact that the projection coefficients of the functional data onto any given projection function follow a univariate Gaussian mixture model (GMM). By conducting multiple one-dimensional projections and learning a univariate GMM for each, we create an ensemble of GMMs. Each GMM serves as a base clustering, and applying ensemble clustering yields a consensus clustering. Our approach significantly reduces computational complexity compared to state-of-the-art methods, and we provide theoretical guarantees on the identifiability and learnability of Gaussian process mixtures. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets confirm the superiority of our method over existing techniques.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Causality

Sina Akbari, Negar Kiyavash

The renowned difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator relies on the assumption of 'parallel trends,' which may not hold in many practical applications. To address this issue, economists are increasingly considering the triple difference estimator as a more credible alternative. Both DiD and triple difference are limited to assessing average effects exclusively. An alternative avenue is offered by the changes-in-changes (CiC) estimator, which provides an estimate of the entire counterfactual distribution by relying on assumptions imposed on the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we extend the triple difference estimator to accommodate the CiC framework, presenting the `triple changes estimator' and its identification assumptions, thereby expanding the scope of the CiC paradigm. Subsequently, we empirically evaluate the proposed framework and apply it to a study examining the impact of Medicaid expansion on children's preventive care.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Jiahao Ai, Zhimei Ren

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the outcome ($Y$) and the covariates ($X$). We propose to reweight the training samples to adjust for an identifiable shift in covariate distribution while protecting against the worst-case conditional distribution shift bounded in an $f$-divergence ball. Based on ideas from conformal inference and distributionally robust learning, we present an algorithm that outputs (approximately) valid and efficient prediction intervals in the presence of distributional shifts. As a use case, we apply the framework to sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects with hidden confounding. The proposed methods are evaluated in simulations and four real data applications, demonstrating superior robustness and efficiency compared with existing benchmarks.

Optimization · Non-Convex

Kwangjun Ahn, Zhiyu Zhang, Yunbum Kook, Yan Dai

Despite the success of the Adam optimizer in practice, the theoretical understanding of its algorithmic components still remains limited. In particular, most existing analyses of Adam show the convergence rate that can be simply achieved by non-adative algorithms like SGD. In this work, we provide a different perspective based on online learning that underscores the importance of Adam's algorithmic components. Inspired by Cutkosky et al. (2023), we consider the framework called online learning of updates/increments, where we choose the updates/increments of an optimizer based on an online learner. With this framework, the design of a good optimizer is reduced to the design of a good online learner. Our main observation is that Adam corresponds to a principled online learning framework called Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL). Building on this observation, we study the benefits of its algorithmic components from the online learning perspective.