We present a taxonomy-driven framework for constructing domain-specific knowledge graphs (KGs) that integrates structured taxonomies, Large Language Models (LLMs) and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Although we focus on climate science to illustrate its effectiveness, our approach can potentially be adapted for other specialized domains. Existing methods often neglect curated taxonomies—hierarchies of verified entities and relationships—and LLMs frequently struggle to extract KGs in specialized domains. Our approach addresses these gaps by anchoring extraction to expert-curated taxonomies, aligning entities and relations with domain semantics, and validating LLM outputs using RAG against the domain taxonomy. Through a climate science case study using our annotated dataset of 25 publications (1,705 entity-publication links, 3,618 expert-validated relationships), we demonstrate that taxonomy-guided LLM prompting combined with RAG-based validation reduces hallucinations by 23.3% while improving F1 scores by 13.9% compared to baselines without the proposed techniques. Our contributions include: 1) a generalizable methodology for taxonomy-aligned KG construction; 2) a reproducible annotation pipeline, 3) the first benchmark dataset for climate science information retrieval; and 4) empirical insights into combining structured taxonomies with LLMs for specialized domains. The dataset, including expert annotations and taxonomy-aligned outputs, is publicly available at https://github.com/Jo-Pan/ClimateIE, and the accompanying framework can be accessed at https://github.com/Jo-Pan/TaxoDrivenKG.
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WXImpactBench: A Disruptive Weather Impact Understanding Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models
PDF ↗Climate change adaptation requires the understanding of disruptive weather impacts on society, where large language models (LLMs) might be applicable. However, their effectiveness is under-explored due to the difficulty of high-quality corpus collection and the lack of available benchmarks. The climate-related events stored in regional newspapers record how communities adapted and recovered from disasters. However, the processing of the original corpus is non-trivial. In this study, we first develop a disruptive weather impact dataset with a four-stage well-crafted construction pipeline. Then, we propose WXImpactBench, the first benchmark for evaluating the capacity of LLMs on disruptive weather impacts. The benchmark involves two evaluation tasks, multi-label classification and ranking-based question answering. Extensive experiments on evaluating a set of LLMs provide first-hand analysis of the challenges in developing disruptive weather impact understanding and climate change adaptation systems. The constructed dataset and the code for the evaluation framework are available to help society protect against vulnerabilities from disasters.
We introduce a novel multilingual and hierarchical corpus annotated for entity framing and role portrayal in news articles. The dataset uses a unique taxonomy inspired by storytelling elements, comprising 22 fine-grained roles, or archetypes, nested within three main categories: protagonist, antagonist, and innocent. Each archetype is carefully defined, capturing nuanced portrayals of entities such as guardian, martyr, and underdog for protagonists; tyrant, deceiver, and bigot for antagonists; and victim, scapegoat, and exploited for innocents. The dataset includes 1,378 recent news articles in five languages (Bulgarian, English, Hindi, European Portuguese, and Russian) focusing on two critical domains of global significance: the Ukraine-Russia War and Climate Change. Over 5,800 entity mentions have been annotated with role labels. This dataset serves as a valuable resource for research into role portrayal and has broader implications for news analysis. We describe the characteristics of the dataset and the annotation process, and we report evaluation results on fine-tuned state-of-the-art multilingual transformers and hierarchical zero-shot learning using LLMs at the level of a document, a paragraph, and a sentence.
PolyNarrative: A Multilingual, Multilabel, Multi-domain Dataset for Narrative Extraction from News Articles
PDF ↗We present polyNarrative, a new multilingual dataset of news articles, annotated for narratives. Narratives are overt or implicit claims, recurring across articles and languages, promoting a specific interpretation or viewpoint on an ongoing topic, often propagating mis/disinformation. We developed two-level taxonomies with coarse- and fine-grained narrative labels for two domains: (i) climate change and (ii) the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia. We collected news articles in four languages (Bulgarian, English, Portuguese, and Russian) related to the two domains and manually annotated them at the paragraph level. We make the dataset publicly available, along with experimental results of several strong baselines that assign narrative labels to news articles at the paragraph or the document level. We believe that this dataset will foster research in narrative detection and enable new research directions towards more multi-domain and highly granular narrative related tasks.
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit the ability to generalize given few-shot examples in their input prompt, an emergent capability known as in-context learning (ICL). We investigate whether LLMs use ICL to perform structured reasoning in ways that are consistent with a Bayesian framework or rely on pattern matching. Using a controlled setting of biased coin flips, we find that: (1) LLMs often possess biased priors, causing initial divergence in zero-shot settings, (2) in-context evidence outweighs explicit bias instructions, (3) LLMs broadly follow Bayesian posterior updates, with deviations primarily due to miscalibrated priors rather than flawed updates, and (4) attention magnitude has negligible effect on Bayesian inference. With sufficient demonstrations of biased coin flips via ICL, LLMs update their priors in a Bayesian manner. Code and visualizations are available on the [project page](https://ai-climate.berkeley.edu/llm-coin-flips/).
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a ``double penalty'' effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.
Applications · Time Series
Time-series data are critical in diverse applications, such as industrial monitoring, medical diagnostics, and climate research. However, effectively integrating these high-dimensional temporal signals with natural language for dynamic, interactive tasks remains a significant challenge. To address this, we introduce the Time-Series Question Answering (Time-Series QA) task and release EngineMT-QA, the first large-scale, multi-task, temporal-textual QA dataset designed to capture complex interactions between time-series signals and natural language. Building on this resource, we propose the Instruct Time Transformer (ITFormer), a novel framework that bridges time-series encoders with frozen large language models (LLMs). ITFormer effectively extracts, aligns, and fuses temporal and textual features, achieving a strong improvement in QA accuracy over strong baselines with fewer than 1\% additional trainable parameters. By combining computational efficiency with robust cross-modal modeling, our work establishes a adaptable paradigm for integrating temporal data with natural language, paving the way for new research and applications in multi-modal AI. More details about the project, including datasets and code, are available at: https://pandalin98.github.io/itformer_site/.
Deep Learning · Everything Else
Existing symmetry discovery methods predominantly focus on global transformations across the entire system or space, but they fail to consider the symmetries in local neighborhoods. This may result in the reported symmetry group being a misrepresentation of the true symmetry. In this paper, we formalize the notion of local symmetry as atlas equivariance. Our proposed pipeline, automatic local symmetry discovery (AtlasD), recovers the local symmetries of a function by training local predictor networks and then learning a Lie group basis to which the predictors are equivariant. We demonstrate AtlasD is capable of discovering local symmetry groups with multiple connected components in top-quark tagging and partial differential equation experiments. The discovered local symmetry is shown to be a useful inductive bias that improves the performance of downstream tasks in climate segmentation and vision tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/AtlasD.
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
Significant efforts have been directed towards adapting self-supervised multimodal learning for Earth observation applications. However, most current methods produce coarse patch-sized embeddings, limiting their effectiveness and integration with other modalities like LiDAR. To close this gap, we present DUNIA, an approach to learn pixel-sized embeddings through cross-modal alignment between images and full-waveform LiDAR data. As the model is trained in a contrastive manner, the embeddings can be directly leveraged in the context of a variety of environmental monitoring tasks in a zero-shot setting. In our experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the embeddings for seven such tasks: canopy height mapping, fractional canopy cover, land cover mapping, tree species identification, plant area index, crop type classification, and per-pixel waveform-based vertical structure mapping. The results show that the embeddings, along with zero-shot classifiers, often outperform specialized supervised models, even in low-data regimes. In the fine-tuning setting, we show strong performances near or better than the state-of-the-art on five out of six tasks.
General Machine Learning · Causality
Many important phenomena in scientific fields like climate, neuroscience, and epidemiology are naturally represented as spatiotemporal gridded data with complex interactions. Inferring causal relationships from these data is a challenging problem compounded by the high dimensionality of such data and the correlations between spatially proximate points. We present SPACY (SPAtiotemporal Causal discoverY), a novel framework based on variational inference, designed to model latent time series and their causal relationships from spatiotemporal data. SPACY alleviates the high-dimensional challenge by discovering causal structures in the latent space. To aggregate spatially proximate, correlated grid points, we use spatial factors, parametrized by spatial kernel functions, to map observational time series to latent representations. Theoretically, we generalize the problem to a continuous spatial domain and establish identifiability when the observations arise from a nonlinear, invertible function of the product of latent series and spatial factors. Using this approach, we avoid assumptions that are often unverifiable, including those about instantaneous effects or sufficient variability. Empirically, SPACY outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic data, even in challenging settings where existing methods struggle, while remaining scalable for large grids. SPACY also identifies key known phenomena from real-world climate data. An implementation of SPACY is available at \url{https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/SPACY/}
Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes
Applying Gaussian processes (GPs) to very large datasets remains a challenge due to limited computational scalability. Matrix structures, such as the Kronecker product, can accelerate operations significantly, but their application commonly entails approximations or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, the most common path to creating a Kronecker-structured kernel matrix is by evaluating a product kernel on gridded inputs that can be expressed as a Cartesian product. However, this structure is lost if any observation is missing, breaking the Cartesian product structure, which frequently occurs in real-world data such as time series. To address this limitation, we propose leveraging latent Kronecker structure, by expressing the kernel matrix of observed values as the projection of a latent Kronecker product. In combination with iterative linear system solvers and pathwise conditioning, our method facilitates inference of exact GPs while requiring substantially fewer computational resources than standard iterative methods. We demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art sparse and variational GPs on real-world datasets with up to five million examples, including robotics, automated machine learning, and climate applications.
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
Satellite imagery is essential for Earth observation, enabling applications like crop yield prediction, environmental monitoring, and climatechange assessment. However, integrating satellite imagery with climate data remains a challenge, limiting its utility for forecasting and scenario analysis. We introduce a novel dataset of 2.9 million Sentinel-2 images spanning 15 land cover types with corresponding climate records, forming the foundation for two satellite image generation approaches using fine-tuned Stable Diffusion 3 models. The first is a text-to-image generation model that uses textual prompts with climate and land cover details to produce realistic synthetic imagery for specific regions. The second leverages ControlNet for multi-conditional image generation, preserving spatial structures while mapping climate data or generating time-series to simulate landscape evolution. By combining synthetic image generation with climate and land cover data, our work advances generative modeling in remote sensing, offering realistic inputs for environmental forecasting and new possibilities for climate adaptation and geospatial analysis.
General Machine Learning · Representation Learning
Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have recently demonstrated impressive generative capabilities. There is emerging evidence that their sample reconstruction ability can yield meaningful representations for recognition tasks. In this paper, we demonstrate that the objectives underlying generation and representation learning are not perfectly aligned. Through a spectral analysis, we find that minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) between the original graph and its reconstructed counterpart does not necessarily optimize representations for downstream tasks. Instead, focusing on reconstructing a small subset of features, specifically those capturing global information, proves to be more effective for learning powerful representations. Motivated by these insights, we propose a novel framework, the Smooth Diffusion Model for Graphs (SDMG), which introduces a multi-scale smoothing loss and low-frequency information encoders to promote the recovery of global, low-frequency details, while suppressing irrelevant high-frequency noise. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our method, suggesting a promising direction for advancing diffusion models in graph representation learning.
Applications · Social Sciences
Global cooperation on climate change mitigation is essential to limit temperature increases while supporting long-term, equitable economic growth and sustainable development. Achieving such cooperation among diverse regions, each with different incentives, in a dynamic environment shaped by complex geopolitical and economic factors, without a central authority, is a profoundly challenging game-theoretic problem. This article introduces RICE-N, a multi-region integrated assessment model that simulates the global climate, economy, and climate negotiations and agreements. RICE-N uses multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to encourage agents to develop strategic behaviors based on the environmental dynamics and the actions of the others. We present two negotiation protocols: (1) Bilateral Negotiation, an exemplary protocol and (2) Basic Club, inspired from Climate Clubs and the carbon border adjustment mechanism (Nordhaus, 2015; Comissions, 2022). We compare their impact against a no-negotiation baseline with various mitigation strategies, showing that both protocols significantly reduce temperature growth at the cost of a minor drop in production while ensuring a more equitable distribution of the emission reduction costs.
Applications · Everything Else
Knowing where a particular species can or cannot be found on Earth is crucial for ecological research and conservation efforts. By mapping the spatial ranges of all species, we would obtain deeper insights into how global biodiversity is affected by climate change and habitat loss. However, accurate range estimates are only available for a relatively small proportion of all known species. For the majority of the remaining species, we typically only have a small number of records denoting the spatial locations where they have previously been observed. We outline a new approach for few-shot species range estimation to address the challenge of accurately estimating the range of a species from limited data. During inference, our model takes a set of spatial locations as input, along with optional metadata such as text or an image, and outputs a species encoding that can be used to predict the range of a previously unseen species in a feedforward manner. We evaluate our approach on two challenging benchmarks, where we obtain state-of-the-art range estimation performance, in a fraction of the compute time, compared to recent alternative approaches.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate promising capabilities in solving scientific problems but often suffer from the issue of hallucination. While integrating LLMs with tools can mitigate this issue, models fine-tuned on tool usage become overreliant on them and incur unnecessary costs. Inspired by how human experts assess problem complexity before selecting solutions, we propose a novel two-component fine-tuning method, *Adapting while Learning* (AWL). In the first component *World Knowledge Learning* (WKL), LLMs internalize scientific knowledge by learning from tool-generated solutions. In the second component *Tool Usage Adaptation* (TUA), we categorize problems as easy or hard based on the model's accuracy, and train it to maintain direct reasoning for easy problems while switching to tools for hard ones. We validate our method on 6 scientific benchmark datasets across climate science, epidemiology, physics, and other domains. Compared to the original instruct model (8B), models post-trained with AWL achieve 29.11\% higher answer accuracy and 12.72\% better tool usage accuracy, even surpassing state-of-the-art models including GPT-4o and Claude-3.5 on 4 custom-created datasets. Our code is open-source at \url{https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/Adapting-While-Learning}.
Applications
Food systems are responsible for a third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. We investigate what Large Language Models (LLMs) can contribute to reducing the environmental impacts of food production. We define a typology of design and prediction tasks based on the sustainable food literature and collaboration with domain experts, and evaluate six LLMs on four tasks in our typology. For example, for a sustainable protein design task, food science experts estimated that collaboration with an LLM can reduce time spent by 45% on average, compared to 22% for collaboration with another expert human food scientist. However, for a sustainable menu design task, LLMs produce suboptimal solutions when instructed to consider both human satisfaction and climate impacts. We propose a general framework for integrating LLMs with combinatorial optimization to improve reasoning capabilities. Our approach decreases emissions of food choices by 79% in a hypothetical restaurant while maintaining participants' satisfaction with their set of choices. Our results demonstrate LLMs' potential, supported by optimization techniques, to accelerate sustainable food development and adoption.
Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders
Time-series forecasting finds application across domains such as finance, climate science, and energy systems. We introduce the Conditional Diffusion with Nonlinear Data Transformation Model (CN-Diff), a generative framework that employs novel nonlinear transformations and learnable conditions in the forward process for time series forecasting. A new loss formulation for training is proposed, along with a detailed derivation of both forward and reverse process. The new additions improve the diffusion model's capacity to capture complex time series patterns, thus simplifying the reverse process. Our novel condition facilitates learning an efficient prior distribution. This also reduces the gap between the true negative log-likelihood and its variational approximation. CN-Diff is shown to perform better than other leading time series models on nine real-world datasets. Ablation studies are conducted to elucidate the role of each component of CN-Diff.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Representation Learning
Implicit neural representations (INRs) exhibit growing promise in addressing Earth representation challenges, ranging from emissions monitoring to climate modeling. However, existing methods disproportionately prioritize global average performance, whereas practitioners require fine-grained insights to understand biases and variations in these models. To bridge this gap, we introduce FAIR-Earth: a first-of-its-kind dataset explicitly crafted to challenge and examine inequities in Earth representations. FAIR-Earth comprises various high-resolution Earth signals, and uniquely aggregates extensive metadata along stratifications like landmass size and population density to assess the fairness of models. Evaluating state-of-the-art INRs across the various modalities of FAIR-Earth, we uncover striking performance disparities. Certain subgroups, especially those associated with high-frequency signals (e.g., islands, coastlines), are consistently poorly modeled by existing methods. In response, we propose spherical wavelet encodings, building on previous spatial encoding research for INRs. Leveraging the multi-resolution analysis capabilities of wavelets, our encodings yield more consistent performance over various scales and locations, offering more accurate and robust representations of the biased subgroups. These open-source contributions represent a crucial step towards facilitating the equitable assessment and deployment of implicit Earth representations.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · General Machine Learning Techniques
Modeling the dynamics of complex real-world systems from temporal snapshot data is crucial for understanding phenomena such as gene regulation, climate change, and financial market fluctuations. Researchers have recently proposed a few methods based either on the Schroedinger Bridge or Flow Matching to tackle this problem, but these approaches remain limited in their ability to effectively combine data from multiple time points and different experimental settings. This integration is essential in real-world scenarios where observations from certain combinations of time points and experimental conditions are missing, either because of experimental costs or sensory failure. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method named Multi-Marginal Flow Matching (MMFM). MMFM first constructs a flow using smooth spline-based interpolation across time points and conditions and regresses it with a neural network using the classifier-free guided Flow Matching framework. This framework allows for the sharing of contextual information about the dynamics across multiple trajectories. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets, including a recent single-cell genomics data set with around a hundred chemical perturbations across time points. Our results show that MMFM significantly outperforms existing methods at imputing data at missing time points.