论文检索

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Shida Wang, Beichen Xue

State-space models have gained popularity in sequence modelling due to their simple and efficient network structures. However, the absence of nonlinear activation along the temporal direction limits the model's capacity. In this paper, we prove that stacking state-space models with layer-wise nonlinear activation is sufficient to approximate any continuous sequence-to-sequence relationship. Our findings demonstrate that the addition of layer-wise nonlinear activation enhances the model's capacity to learn complex sequence patterns. Meanwhile, it can be seen both theoretically and empirically that the state-space models do not fundamentally resolve the issue of exponential decaying memory. Theoretical results are justified by numerical verifications.

Deep Learning/Recurrent Networks

Lukas Eisenmann, Zahra Monfared, Niclas Göring, Daniel Durstewitz

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are popular machine learning tools for modeling and forecasting sequential data and for inferring dynamical systems (DS) from observed time series. Concepts from DS theory (DST) have variously been used to further our understanding of both, how trained RNNs solve complex tasks, and the training process itself. Bifurcations are particularly important phenomena in DS, including RNNs, that refer to topological (qualitative) changes in a system's dynamical behavior as one or more of its parameters are varied. Knowing the bifurcation structure of an RNN will thus allow to deduce many of its computational and dynamical properties, like its sensitivity to parameter variations or its behavior during training. In particular, bifurcations may account for sudden loss jumps observed in RNN training that could severely impede the training process. Here we first mathematically prove for a particular class of ReLU-based RNNs that certain bifurcations are indeed associated with loss gradients tending toward infinity or zero. We then introduce a novel heuristic algorithm for detecting all fixed points and $k$-cycles in ReLU-based RNNs and their existence and stability regions, hence bifurcation manifolds in parameter space. In contrast to previous numerical algorithms for finding fixed points and common continuation methods, our algorithm provides $\textit{exact}$ results and returns fixed points and cycles up to high orders with surprisingly good scaling behavior. We exemplify the algorithm on the analysis of the training process of RNNs, and find that the recently introduced technique of generalized teacher forcing completely avoids certain types of bifurcations in training. Thus, besides facilitating the DST analysis of trained RNNs, our algorithm provides a powerful instrument for analyzing the training process itself.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla, Haotian Xu, Daren Wang, OSCAR HERNAN MADRID PADILLA, Yi Yu

This paper addresses the problem of localizing and inferring multiple change points, in non-parametric multivariate time series settings. Specifically, we consider a multivariate time series with potentially short-range dependence, whose underlying distributions have Hölder smooth densities and can change over time in a piecewise-constant manner. The change points, which correspond to the times when the distribution changes, are unknown. We present the limiting distributions of the change point estimators under the scenarios where the minimal jump size vanishes or remains constant. Such results have not been revealed in the literature in non-parametric change point settings. As byproducts, we develop a sharp estimator that can accurately localize the change points in multivariate non-parametric time series, and a consistent block-type long-run variance estimator. Numerical studies are provided to complement our theoretical findings.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Shanyun Gao, Raghavendra Addanki, Tong Yu, Ryan Rossi, Murat Kocaoglu

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical science. Here, we consider this problem for a class of non-stationary time series. The structural causal model (SCM) of this type of time series, called the semi-stationary time series, exhibits that a finite number of different causal mechanisms occur sequentially and periodically across time. This model holds considerable practical utility because it can represent periodicity, including common occurrences such as seasonality and diurnal variation. We propose a constraint-based, non-parametric algorithm for discovering causal relations in this setting. The resulting algorithm, PCMCI$_{\Omega}$, can capture the alternating and recurring changes in the causal mechanisms and then identify the underlying causal graph with conditional independence (CI) tests. We show that this algorithm is sound in identifying causal relations on discrete time series. We validate the algorithm with extensive experiments on continuous and discrete simulated data. We also apply our algorithm to a real-world climate dataset.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Xiao Shou, Debarun Bhattacharjya, Tian Gao, Dharmashankar Subramanian, Oktie Hassanzadeh, Kristin P Bennett

Although pairwise causal relations have been extensively studied in observational longitudinal analyses across many disciplines, incorporating knowledge of causal pairs into deep learning models for temporal event sequences remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for enhancing the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by injecting pairwise qualitative causal knowledge such as `event Z amplifies future occurrences of event Y'. We establish a new framework for causal inference in temporal event sequences using a transformer architecture, providing a theoretical justification for our approach, and show how to obtain unbiased estimates of the proposed measure. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy by effectively leveraging knowledge about causal pairs. We also consider a unique application where we extract knowledge around sequences of societal events by generating them from a large language model, and demonstrate how a causal knowledge graph can help with event prediction in such sequences. Overall, our framework offers a practical means of improving the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by explicitly exploiting pairwise causal information.

Applications/Time Series

Xu Liu, Yutong Xia, Yuxuan Liang, Junfeng Hu, Yiwei Wang, LEI BAI, Chao Huang, Zhenguang Liu, Bryan Hooi, Roger Zimmermann

Road traffic forecasting plays a critical role in smart city initiatives and has experienced significant advancements thanks to the power of deep learning in capturing non-linear patterns of traffic data. However, the promising results achieved on current public datasets may not be applicable to practical scenarios due to limitations within these datasets. First, the limited sizes of them may not reflect the real-world scale of traffic networks. Second, the temporal coverage of these datasets is typically short, posing hurdles in studying long-term patterns and acquiring sufficient samples for training deep models. Third, these datasets often lack adequate metadata for sensors, which compromises the reliability and interpretability of the data. To mitigate these limitations, we introduce the LargeST benchmark dataset. It encompasses a total number of 8,600 sensors in California with a 5-year time coverage and includes comprehensive metadata. Using LargeST, we perform in-depth data analysis to extract data insights, benchmark well-known baselines in terms of their performance and efficiency, and identify challenges as well as opportunities for future research. We release the datasets and baseline implementations at: https://github.com/liuxu77/LargeST.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

suresh kumar amalapuram, Sumohana Channappayya, Bheemarjuna Reddy Tamma

Intrusion detection is a form of anomalous activity detection in communication network traffic. Continual learning (CL) approaches to the intrusion detection task accumulate old knowledge while adapting to the latest threat knowledge. Previous works have shown the effectiveness of memory replay-based CL approaches for this task. In this work, we present two novel contributions to improve the performance of CL-based network intrusion detection in the context of class imbalance and scalability. First, we extend class balancing reservoir sampling (CBRS), a memory-based CL method, to address the problems of severe class imbalance for large datasets. Second, we propose a novel approach titled perturbation assistance for parameter approximation (PAPA) based on the Gaussian mixture model to reduce the number of \textit{virtual stochastic gradient descent (SGD) parameter} computations needed to discover maximally interfering samples for CL. We demonstrate that the proposed approaches perform remarkably better than the baselines on standard intrusion detection benchmarks created over shorter periods (KDDCUP'99, NSL-KDD, CICIDS-2017/2018, UNSW-NB15, and CTU-13) and a longer period with distribution shift (AnoShift). We also validated proposed approaches on standard continual learning benchmarks (SVHN, CIFAR-10/100, and CLEAR-10/100) and anomaly detection benchmarks (SMAP, SMD, and MSL). Further, the proposed PAPA approach significantly lowers the number of virtual SGD update operations, thus resulting in training time savings in the range of 12 to 40\% compared to the maximally interfered samples retrieval algorithm.

Applications/Health

Çağlar Hızlı, ST John, Anne Juuti, Tuure Saarinen, Kirsi Pietiläinen, Pekka Marttinen

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been studied in a static setting. In healthcare, data come in the form of complex, irregularly sampled time-series, with dynamic interdependencies between a treatment, outcomes, and mediators across time. Existing approaches to dynamic causal mediation analysis are limited to regular measurement intervals, simple parametric models, and disregard long-range mediator--outcome interactions. To address these limitations, we propose a non-parametric mediator--outcome model where the mediator is assumed to be a temporal point process that interacts with the outcome process. With this model, we estimate the direct and indirect effects of an external intervention on the outcome, showing how each of these affects the whole future trajectory. We demonstrate on semi-synthetic data that our method can accurately estimate direct and indirect effects. On real-world healthcare data, our model infers clinically meaningful direct and indirect effect trajectories for blood glucose after a surgery.

Applications/Time Series

Hyun Dong Lee, Andrew Warrington, Joshua Glaser, Scott Linderman

An important problem in time-series analysis is modeling systems with time-varying dynamics. Probabilistic models with joint continuous and discrete latent states offer interpretable, efficient, and experimentally useful descriptions of such data. Commonly used models include autoregressive hidden Markov models (ARHMMs) and switching linear dynamical systems (SLDSs), each with its own advantages and disadvantages. ARHMMs permit exact inference and easy parameter estimation, but are parameter intensive when modeling long dependencies, and hence are prone to overfitting. In contrast, SLDSs can capture long-range dependencies in a parameter efficient way through Markovian latent dynamics, but present an intractable likelihood and a challenging parameter estimation task. In this paper, we propose _switching autoregressive low-rank tensor_ SALT models, which retain the advantages of both approaches while ameliorating the weaknesses. SALT parameterizes the tensor of an ARHMM with a low-rank factorization to control the number of parameters and allow longer range dependencies without overfitting. We prove theoretical and discuss practical connections between SALT, linear dynamical systems, and SLDSs. We empirically demonstrate quantitative advantages of SALT models on a range of simulated and real prediction tasks, including behavioral and neural datasets. Furthermore, the learned low-rank tensor provides novel insights into temporal dependencies within each discrete state.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Owen Queen, Tom Hartvigsen, Teddy Koker, Huan He, Theodoros Tsiligkaridis, Marinka Zitnik

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Bong Gyun Kang, HyunGi Kim, Dahuin Jung, Sungroh Yoon

Continual learning (CL) aims to incrementally learn multiple tasks that are presented sequentially. The significance of CL lies not only in the practical importance but also in studying the learning mechanisms of humans who are excellent continual learners. While most research on CL has been done on structured data such as images, there is a lack of research on CL for abstract logical concepts such as counting, sorting, and arithmetic, which humans learn gradually over time in the real world. In this work, for the first time, we introduce novel algorithmic reasoning (AR) methodology for continual tasks of abstract concepts: CLeAR. Our methodology proposes a one-to-many mapping of input distribution to a shared mapping space, which allows the alignment of various tasks of different dimensions and shared semantics. Our tasks of abstract logical concepts, in the form of formal language, can be classified into Chomsky hierarchies based on their difficulty. In this study, we conducted extensive experiments consisting of 15 tasks with various levels of Chomsky hierarchy, ranging from in-hierarchy to inter-hierarchy scenarios. CLeAR not only achieved near zero forgetting but also improved accuracy during following tasks, a phenomenon known as backward transfer, while previous CL methods designed for image classification drastically failed.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Jiaxiang Dong, Haixu Wu, Haoran Zhang, Li Zhang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long

Time series analysis is widely used in extensive areas. Recently, to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various tasks, self-supervised pre-training has attracted immense interest. One mainstream paradigm is masked modeling, which successfully pre-trains deep models by learning to reconstruct the masked content based on the unmasked part. However, since the semantic information of time series is mainly contained in temporal variations, the standard way of randomly masking a portion of time points will seriously ruin vital temporal variations of time series, making the reconstruction task too difficult to guide representation learning. We thus present SimMTM, a Simple pre-training framework for Masked Time-series Modeling. By relating masked modeling to manifold learning, SimMTM proposes to recover masked time points by the weighted aggregation of multiple neighbors outside the manifold, which eases the reconstruction task by assembling ruined but complementary temporal variations from multiple masked series. SimMTM further learns to uncover the local structure of the manifold, which is helpful for masked modeling. Experimentally, SimMTM achieves state-of-the-art fine-tuning performance compared to the most advanced time series pre-training methods in two canonical time series analysis tasks: forecasting and classification, covering both in- and cross-domain settings.

Applications/Time Series

Zhiding Liu, Mingyue Cheng, Zhi Li, Zhenya Huang, Qi Liu, Yanhu Xie, Enhong Chen

Deep learning models have progressively advanced time series forecasting due to their powerful capacity in capturing sequence dependence. Nevertheless, it is still challenging to make accurate predictions due to the existence of non-stationarity in real-world data, denoting the data distribution rapidly changes over time. To mitigate such a dilemma, several efforts have been conducted by reducing the non-stationarity with normalization operation. However, these methods typically overlook the distribution discrepancy between the input series and the horizon series, and assume that all time points within the same instance share the same statistical properties, which is too ideal and may lead to suboptimal relative improvements. To this end, we propose a novel slice-level adaptive normalization, referred to \textbf{SAN}, which is a novel scheme for empowering time series forecasting with more flexible normalization and denormalization. SAN includes two crucial designs. First, SAN tries to eliminate the non-stationarity of time series in units of a local temporal slice (i.e., sub-series) rather than a global instance. Second, SAN employs a slight network module to independently model the evolving trends of statistical properties of raw time series. Consequently, SAN could serve as a general model-agnostic plugin and better alleviate the impact of the non-stationary nature of time series data. We instantiate the proposed SAN on four widely used forecasting models and test their prediction results on benchmark datasets to evaluate its effectiveness. Also, we report some insightful findings to deeply analyze and understand our proposed SAN. We make our codes publicly available.

Deep Learning/Other Representation Learning

YUANHAO WANG, Ramzi Idoughi, Wolfgang Heidrich

We present a novel learning-based framework for reconstructing 3D structures from tilt-series cryo-Electron Tomography (cryo-ET) data. Cryo-ET is a powerful imaging technique that can achieve near-atomic resolutions. Still, it suffers from challenges such as missing-wedge acquisition, large data size, and high noise levels. Our framework addresses these challenges by using an adaptive tensorial-based representation for the 3D density field of the scanned sample. First, we optimize a quadtree structure to partition the volume of interest. Then, we learn a vector-matrix factorization of the tensor representing the density field in each node. Moreover, we use a loss function that combines a differentiable tomographic formation model with three regularization terms: total variation, boundary consistency constraint, and an isotropic Fourier prior. Our framework allows us to query the density at any location using the learned representation and obtain a high-quality 3D tomogram. We demonstrate the superiority of our framework over existing methods using synthetic and real data. Thus, our framework boosts the quality of the reconstruction while reducing the computation time and the memory footprint. The code is available at https://github.com/yuanhaowang1213/adaptivetensordf.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Samuel Dooley, Gurnoor Singh Khurana, Chirag Mohapatra, Siddartha V Naidu, Colin White

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Xin Liu, Zheng Li, Yifan Gao, Jingfeng Yang, Tianyu Cao, Zhengyang Wang, Bing Yin, Yangqiu Song

The goal of session-based recommendation in E-commerce is to predict the next item that an anonymous user will purchase based on the browsing and purchase history. However, constructing global or local transition graphs to supplement session data can lead to noisy correlations and user intent vanishing. In this work, we propose the Frequent Attribute Pattern Augmented Transformer (FAPAT) that characterizes user intents by building attribute transition graphs and matching attribute patterns. Specifically, the frequent and compact attribute patterns are served as memory to augment session representations, followed by a gate and a transformer block to fuse the whole session information. Through extensive experiments on two public benchmarks and 100 million industrial data in three domains, we demonstrate that FAPAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods by an average of 4.5% across various evaluation metrics (Hits, NDCG, MRR). Besides evaluating the next-item prediction, we estimate the models' capabilities to capture user intents via predicting items' attributes and period-item recommendations.

Applications/Time Series

Wei Jin, Haitao Mao, Zheng Li, Haoming Jiang, Chen Luo, Hongzhi Wen, Haoyu Han, Hanqing Lu, Zhengyang Wang, Ruirui Li 等

Modeling customer shopping intentions is a crucial task for e-commerce, as it directly impacts user experience and engagement. Thus, accurately understanding customer preferences is essential for providing personalized recommendations. Session-based recommendation, which utilizes customer session data to predict their next interaction, has become increasingly popular. However, existing session datasets have limitations in terms of item attributes, user diversity, and dataset scale. As a result, they cannot comprehensively capture the spectrum of user behaviors and preferences.To bridge this gap, we present the Amazon Multilingual Multi-locale Shopping Session Dataset, namely Amazon-M2. It is the first multilingual dataset consisting of millions of user sessions from six different locales, where the major languages of products are English, German, Japanese, French, Italian, and Spanish.Remarkably, the dataset can help us enhance personalization and understanding of user preferences, which can benefit various existing tasks as well as enable new tasks. To test the potential of the dataset, we introduce three tasks in this work:(1) next-product recommendation, (2) next-product recommendation with domain shifts, and (3) next-product title generation.With the above tasks, we benchmark a range of algorithms on our proposed dataset, drawing new insights for further research and practice. In addition, based on the proposed dataset and tasks, we hosted a competition in the KDD CUP 2023 https://www.aicrowd.com/challenges/amazon-kdd-cup-23-multilingual-recommendation-challenge and have attracted thousands of users and submissions. The winning solutions and the associated workshop can be accessed at our website~https://kddcup23.github.io/.

Reinforcement Learning/Multi-agent

Yiheng Zhu, Yang Zhan, Xuankun Huang, Yuwei Chen, yujie Chen, Jiangwen Wei, Wei Feng, Yinzhi Zhou, Haoyuan Hu, Jieping Ye

The dramatic growth of global e-commerce has led to a surge in demand for efficient and cost-effective order fulfillment which can increase customers' service levels and sellers' competitiveness. However, managing order fulfillment is challenging due to a series of interdependent online sequential decision-making problems. To clear this hurdle, rather than solving the problems separately as attempted in some recent researches, this paper proposes a method based on multi-agent reinforcement learning to integratively solve the series of interconnected problems, encompassing order handling, packing and pickup, storage, order consolidation, and last-mile delivery. In particular, we model the integrated problem as a Markov game, wherein a team of agents learns a joint policy via interacting with a simulated environment. Since no simulated environment supporting the complete order fulfillment problem exists, we devise Order Fulfillment COoperative mUlti-agent Reinforcement learning Scalable Environment (OFCOURSE) in the OpenAI Gym style, which allows reproduction and re-utilization to build customized applications. By constructing the fulfillment system in OFCOURSE, we optimize a joint policy that solves the integrated problem, facilitating sequential order-wise operations across all fulfillment units and minimizing the total cost of fulfilling all orders within the promised time. With OFCOURSE, we also demonstrate that the joint policy learned by multi-agent reinforcement learning outperforms the combination of locally optimal policies. The source code of OFCOURSE is available at: https://github.com/GitYiheng/ofcourse.

Applications/Computer Vision

Ao Zhang, Hao Fei, Yuan Yao, Wei Ji, Li Li, Zhiyuan Liu, Tat-Seng Chua

Since developing a new multimodal LLM (MLLM) by pre-training on tremendous image-text pairs from scratch can be exceedingly resource-consuming, connecting an existing LLM with a comparatively lightweight visual prompt generator (VPG) becomes a feasible paradigm. However, further tuning the VPG component of the MLLM still incurs significant computational costs, such as thousands of GPU hours and millions of training data points. An alternative solution is transferring an existing VPG from one MLLM to the target MLLM. In this work, we investigate VPG transferability across LLMs for the first time, aiming to reduce the cost of VPG training. Specifically, we explore VPG transfer across different LLM sizes (e.g., small-to-large) and types. We identify key factors to maximize transfer efficiency, based on which we develop a simple yet highly effective two-stage transfer framework, called VPGTrans. Notably, it enables VPG transfer from BLIP-2 OPT 2.7B to BLIP-2 OPT 6.7B with less than 10% of the GPU hours using only 10.7% of the training data compared to training a VPG for OPT 6.7B from scratch. Furthermore, we provide a series of intriguing findings and discuss potential explanations behind them. Finally, we showcase the practical value of our VPGTrans approach, by customizing two novel MLLMs, including VL-LLaMA and VL-Vicuna, with recently released LLaMA and Vicuna LLMs.

Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders

Hang Lou, Siran Li, Hao Ni

Generating high-fidelity time series data using generative adversarial networks (GANs) remains a challenging task, as it is difficult to capture the temporal dependence of joint probability distributions induced by time-series data. Towards this goal, a key step is the development of an effective discriminator to distinguish between time series distributions. We propose the so-called PCF-GAN, a novel GAN that incorporates the path characteristic function (PCF) as the principled representation of time series distribution into the discriminator to enhance its generative performance. On the one hand, we establish theoretical foundations of the PCF distance by proving its characteristicity, boundedness, differentiability with respect to generator parameters, and weak continuity, which ensure the stability and feasibility of training the PCF-GAN. On the other hand, we design efficient initialisation and optimisation schemes for PCFs to strengthen the discriminative power and accelerate training efficiency. To further boost the capabilities of complex time series generation, we integrate the auto-encoder structure via sequential embedding into the PCF-GAN, which provides additional reconstruction functionality. Extensive numerical experiments on various datasets demonstrate the consistently superior performance of PCF-GAN over state-of-the-art baselines, in both generation and reconstruction quality.