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Applications/Time Series

Sapna Chaudhary, Mukulika Maity, Sandip Chakraborty, Naval Shukla

HTTP/3 is a new application layer protocol supported by most browsers. It uses QUIC as an underlying transport protocol. QUIC provides multiple benefits, like faster connection establishment, reduced latency, and improved connection migration. Hence, most popular browsers like Chrome/Chromium, Microsoft Edge, Apple Safari, and Mozilla Firefox have started supporting it. In this paper, we present an HTTP/3-supported browser dataset collection tool named H3B. It collects the application and network-level logs during YouTube streaming. We consider YouTube, as it the most popular video streaming application supporting QUIC. Using this tool, we collected a dataset of over 5936 YouTube sessions covering 5464 hours of streaming over 5 different geographical locations and 5 different bandwidth patterns. We believe our tool and as well as the dataset could be used in multiple applications such as a better configuration of application/transport protocols based on the network conditions, intelligent integration of network and application, predicting YouTube's QoE etc. We analyze the dataset and observe that during an HTTP/3 streaming not all requests are served by HTTP/3. Instead whenever the network condition is not favorable the browser chooses to fallback, and the application requests are transmitted using HTTP/2 over the old-standing transport protocol TCP. We observe that such switching of protocols impacts the performance of video streaming applications.

Deep Learning/Graph Neural Networks

Zhen Zhang, Bingqiao Luo, Shengliang Lu, Bingsheng He

Numerous studies have been conducted to investigate the properties of large-scale temporal graphs. Despite the ubiquity of these graphs in real-world scenarios, it's usually impractical for us to obtain the whole real-time graphs due to privacy concerns and technical limitations. In this paper, we introduce the concept of {\it Live Graph Lab} for temporal graphs, which enables open, dynamic and real transaction graphs from blockchains. Among them, Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have become one of the most prominent parts of blockchain over the past several years. With more than \$40 billion market capitalization, this decentralized ecosystem produces massive, anonymous and real transaction activities, which naturally forms a complicated transaction network. However, there is limited understanding about the characteristics of this emerging NFT ecosystem from a temporal graph analysis perspective. To mitigate this gap, we instantiate a live graph with NFT transaction network and investigate its dynamics to provide new observations and insights. Specifically, through downloading and parsing the NFT transaction activities, we obtain a temporal graph with more than 4.5 million nodes and 124 million edges. Then, a series of measurements are presented to understand the properties of the NFT ecosystem. Through comparisons with social, citation, and web networks, our analyses give intriguing findings and point out potential directions for future exploration. Finally, we also study machine learning models in this live graph to enrich the current datasets and provide new opportunities for the graph community. The source codes and dataset are available at https://livegraphlab.github.io.

Applications/Health

Wenwen Zhang, Arvin Tashakori, Zenan Jiang, Amir Servati, Harishkumar Narayana, Saeid Soltanian, Rou Yi Yeap, Menghan Ma, Lauren Toy, Peyman Servati

The kinematics of human movements and locomotion are closely linked to the activation and contractions of muscles. To investigate this, we present a multimodal dataset with benchmarks collected using a novel pair of Intelligent Knee Sleeves (Texavie MarsWear Knee Sleeves) for human pose estimation. Our system utilizes synchronized datasets that comprise time-series data from the Knee Sleeves and the corresponding ground truth labels from visualized motion capture camera system. We employ these to generate 3D human models solely based on the wearable data of individuals performing different activities. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this camera-free system and machine learning algorithms in the assessment of various movements and exercises, including extension to unseen exercises and individuals. The results show an average error of 7.21 degrees across all eight lower body joints when compared to the ground truth, indicating the effectiveness and reliability of the Knee Sleeve system for the prediction of different lower body joints beyond knees. The results enable human pose estimation in a seamless manner without being limited by visual occlusion or the field of view of cameras. Our results show the potential of multimodal wearable sensing in a variety of applications from home fitness to sports, healthcare, and physical rehabilitation focusing on pose and movement estimation.

Applications/Climate

Sebastian Gerard, Yu Zhao, Josephine Sullivan

We present a multi-temporal, multi-modal remote-sensing dataset for predicting how active wildfires will spread at a resolution of 24 hours. The dataset consists of 13607 images across 607 fire events in the United States from January 2018 to October 2021. For each fire event, the dataset contains a full time series of daily observations, containing detected active fires and variables related to fuel, topography and weather conditions. The dataset is challenging due to: a) its inputs being multi-temporal, b) the high number of 23 multi-modal input channels, c) highly imbalanced labels and d) noisy labels, due to smoke, clouds, and inaccuracies in the active fire detection. The underlying complexity of the physical processes adds to these challenges. Compared to existing public datasets in this area, WildfireSpreadTS allows for multi-temporal modeling of spreading wildfires, due to its time series structure. Furthermore, we provide additional input modalities and a high spatial resolution of 375m for the active fire maps. We publish this dataset to encourage further research on this important task with multi-temporal, noise-resistant or generative methods, uncertainty estimation or advanced optimization techniques that deal with the high-dimensional input space.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Cheng Tan, Siyuan Li, Zhangyang Gao, Wenfei Guan, Zedong Wang, Zicheng Liu, Lirong Wu, Stan Z. Li

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow, and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Applications/Climate

Anatol Garioud, Nicolas Gonthier, Loic Landrieu, Apolline De Wit, Marion Valette, Marc Poupée, Sebastien Giordano, boris Wattrelos

We introduce the French Land cover from Aerospace ImageRy (FLAIR), an extensive dataset from the French National Institute of Geographical and Forest Information (IGN) that provides a unique and rich resource for large-scale geospatial analysis. FLAIR contains high-resolution aerial imagery with a ground sample distance of 20 cm and over 20 billion individually labeled pixels for precise land-cover classification. The dataset also integrates temporal and spectral data from optical satellite time series. FLAIR thus combines data with varying spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions across over 817 km² of acquisitions representing the full landscape diversity of France. This diversity makes FLAIR a valuable resource for the development and evaluation of novel methods for large-scale land-cover semantic segmentation and raises significant challenges in terms of computer vision, data fusion, and geospatial analysis. We also provide powerful uni- and multi-sensor baseline models that can be employed to assess algorithm's performance and for downstream applications.

Applications/Health

Nina Montana-Brown, Shaheer U. Saeed, Ahmed Abdulaal, Thomas Dowrick, Yakup Kilic, Sophie Wilkinson, Jack Gao, Meghavi Mashar, Chloe He, Alkisti Stavropoulou 等

Minimally-invasive surgery (MIS) and robot-assisted minimally invasive (RAMIS) surgery offer well-documented benefits to patients such as reduced post-operative pain and shorter hospital stays.However, the automation of MIS and RAMIS through the use of AI has been slow due to difficulties in data acquisition and curation, partially caused by the ethical considerations of training, testing and deploying AI models in medical environments.We introduce \texttt{SARAMIS}, the first large-scale dataset of anatomically derived 3D rendering assets of the human abdominal anatomy.Using previously existing, open-source CT datasets of the human anatomy, we derive novel 3D meshes, tetrahedral volumes, textures and diffuse maps for over 104 different anatomical targets in the human body, representing the largest, open-source dataset of 3D rendering assets for synthetic simulation of vision tasks in MIS+RAMIS, increasing the availability of openly available 3D meshes in the literature by three orders of magnitude.We supplement our dataset with a series of GPU-enabled rendering environments, which can be used to generate datasets for realistic MIS/RAMIS tasks.Finally, we present an example of the use of \texttt{SARAMIS} assets for an autonomous navigation task in colonoscopy from CT abdomen-pelvis scans for the first time in the literature.\texttt{SARAMIS} is publically made available at https://github.com/NMontanaBrown/saramis/, with assets released under a CC-BY-NC-SA license.

Applications/Time Series

Patrick Emami, Abhijeet Sahu, Peter Graf

Short-term forecasting of residential and commercial building energy consumption is widely used in power systems and continues to grow in importance. Data-driven short-term load forecasting (STLF), although promising, has suffered from a lack of open, large-scale datasets with high building diversity. This has hindered exploring the pretrain-then-fine-tune paradigm for STLF. To help address this, we present BuildingsBench, which consists of: 1) Buildings-900K, a large-scale dataset of 900K simulated buildings representing the U.S. building stock; and 2) an evaluation platform with over 1,900 real residential and commercial buildings from 7 open datasets. BuildingsBench benchmarks two under-explored tasks: zero-shot STLF, where a pretrained model is evaluated on unseen buildings without fine-tuning, and transfer learning, where a pretrained model is fine-tuned on a target building. The main finding of our benchmark analysis is that synthetically pretrained models generalize surprisingly well to real commercial buildings. An exploration of the effect of increasing dataset size and diversity on zero-shot commercial building performance reveals a power-law with diminishing returns. We also show that fine-tuning pretrained models on real commercial and residential buildings improves performance for a majority of target buildings. We hope that BuildingsBench encourages and facilitates future research on generalizable STLF. All datasets and code can be accessed from https://github.com/NREL/BuildingsBench.

Applications/Climate

Andrea Nascetti, Ritu Yadav, Kirill Brodt, Qixun Qu, Hongwei Fan, Yuri Shendryk, Isha Shah, Christine Chung

Above Ground Biomass is an important variable as forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change as they act as an efficient, natural and cost-effective carbon sink. Traditional field and airborne LiDAR measurements have been proven to provide reliable estimations of forest biomass. Nevertheless, the use of these techniques at a large scale can be challenging and expensive. Satellite data have been widely used as a valuable tool in estimating biomass on a global scale. However, the full potential of dense multi-modal satellite time series data, in combination with modern deep learning approaches, has yet to be fully explored. The aim of the "BioMassters" data challenge and benchmark dataset is to investigate the potential of multi-modal satellite data (Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI) to estimate forest biomass at a large scale using the Finnish Forest Centre's open forest and nature airborne LiDAR data as a reference. The performance of the top three baseline models shows the potential of deep learning to produce accurate and higher-resolution biomass maps. Our benchmark dataset is publically available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nascetti-a/BioMassters (doi:10.57967/hf/1009) and the implementation of the top three winning models are available at https://github.com/drivendataorg/the-biomassters.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Chirag Raman, Alec Nonnemaker, Amelia Villegas-Morcillo, Hayley Hung, Marco Loog

We propose a post hoc saliency-based explanation framework for counterfactual reasoning in probabilistic multivariate time-series forecasting (regression) settings. Building upon Miller's framework of explanations derived from research in multiple social science disciplines, we establish a conceptual link between counterfactual reasoning and saliency-based explanation techniques. To address the lack of a principled notion of saliency, we leverage a unifying definition of information-theoretic saliency grounded in preattentive human visual cognition and extend it to forecasting settings. Specifically, we obtain a closed-form expression for commonly used density functions to identify which observed timesteps appear salient to an underlying model in making its probabilistic forecasts. We empirically validate our framework in a principled manner using synthetic data to establish ground-truth saliency that is unavailable for real-world data. Finally, using real-world data and forecasting models, we demonstrate how our framework can assist domain experts in forming new data-driven hypotheses about the causal relationships between features in the wild.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Mingzhou Liu, Xinwei Sun, Lingjing Hu, Yizhou Wang

Inferring causal structures from time series data is the central interest of many scientific inquiries. A major barrier to such inference is the problem of subsampling, *i.e.*, the frequency of measurement is much lower than that of causal influence. To overcome this problem, numerous methods have been proposed, yet either was limited to the linear case or failed to achieve identifiability. In this paper, we propose a constraint-based algorithm that can identify the entire causal structure from subsampled time series, without any parametric constraint. Our observation is that the challenge of subsampling arises mainly from hidden variables at the unobserved time steps. Meanwhile, every hidden variable has an observed proxy, which is essentially itself at some observable time in the future, benefiting from the temporal structure. Based on these, we can leverage the proxies to remove the bias induced by the hidden variables and hence achieve identifiability. Following this intuition, we propose a proxy-based causal discovery algorithm. Our algorithm is nonparametric and can achieve full causal identification. Theoretical advantages are reflected in synthetic and real-world experiments.

Applications/Time Series

Yutong Xia, Yuxuan Liang, Haomin Wen, Xu Liu, Kun Wang, Zhengyang Zhou, Roger Zimmermann

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate the temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability. Our source code is available at https://github.com/yutong-xia/CaST.

Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders

Josephine Lamp, Mark Derdzinski, Christopher Hannemann, Joost van der Linden, Lu Feng, Tianhao Wang, David Evans

We focus on the problem of generating high-quality, private synthetic glucose traces, a task generalizable to many other time series sources. Existing methods for time series data synthesis, such as those using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), are not able to capture the innate characteristics of glucose data and cannot provide any formal privacy guarantees without severely degrading the utility of the synthetic data. In this paper we present GlucoSynth, a novel privacy-preserving GAN framework to generate synthetic glucose traces. The core intuition behind our approach is to conserve relationships amongst motifs (glucose events) within the traces, in addition to temporal dynamics. Our framework incorporates differential privacy mechanisms to provide strong formal privacy guarantees. We provide a comprehensive evaluation on the real-world utility of the data using 1.2 million glucose traces; GlucoSynth outperforms all previous methods in its ability to generate high-quality synthetic glucose traces with strong privacy guarantees.

Applications/Time Series

Andrea Coletta, Sriram Gopalakrishnan, Daniel Borrajo, Svitlana Vyetrenko

Synthetic time series are often used in practical applications to augment the historical time series dataset, amplify the occurrence of rare events and also create counterfactual scenarios.Distributional-similarity (which we refer to as realism) as well as the satisfaction of certain numerical constraints are common requirements for counterfactual time series generation. For instance, the US Federal Reserve publishes synthetic market stress scenarios given by the constrained time series for financial institutions to assess their performance in hypothetical recessions.Existing approaches for generating constrained time series usually penalize training loss to enforce constraints, and reject non-conforming samples. However, these approaches would require re-training if we change constraints, and rejection sampling can be computationally expensive, or impractical for complex constraints.In this paper, we propose a novel set of methods to tackle the constrained time series generation problem and provide efficient sampling while ensuring the realism of generated time series. In particular, we frame the problem using a constrained optimization framework and then we propose a set of generative methods including 'GuidedDiffTime', a guided diffusion model. We empirically evaluate our work on several datasets for financial and energy data, where incorporating constraints is critical. We show that our approaches outperform existing work both qualitatively and quantitatively, and that 'GuidedDiffTime' does not require re-training for new constraints, resulting in a significant carbon footprint reduction, up to 92% w.r.t. existing deep learning methods.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Daolang Huang, Ayush Bharti, Amauri Souza, Luigi Acerbi, Samuel Kaski

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models. However, such methods are known to yield untrustworthy and misleading inference outcomes under model misspecification, thus hindering their widespread applicability. In this work, we propose the first general approach to handle model misspecification that works across different classes of SBI methods. Leveraging the fact that the choice of statistics determines the degree of misspecification in SBI, we introduce a regularized loss function that penalizes those statistics that increase the mismatch between the data and the model. Taking NPE and ABC as use cases, we demonstrate the superior performance of our method on high-dimensional time-series models that are artificially misspecified. We also apply our method to real data from the field of radio propagation where the model is known to be misspecified. We show empirically that the method yields robust inference in misspecified scenarios, whilst still being accurate when the model is well-specified.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Shane Bergsma, Tim Zeyl, Lei Guo

We propose SutraNets, a novel method for neural probabilistic forecasting of long-sequence time series. SutraNets use an autoregressive generative model to factorize the likelihood of long sequences into products of conditional probabilities. When generating long sequences, most autoregressive approaches suffer from harmful error accumulation, as well as challenges in modeling long-distance dependencies. SutraNets treat long, univariate prediction as multivariate prediction over lower-frequency sub-series. Autoregression proceeds across time and across sub-series in order to ensure coherent multivariate (and, hence, high-frequency univariate) outputs. Since sub-series can be generated using fewer steps, SutraNets effectively reduce error accumulation and signal path distances. We find SutraNets to significantly improve forecasting accuracy over competitive alternatives on six real-world datasets, including when we vary the number of sub-series and scale up the depth and width of the underlying sequence models.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Vinitra Swamy, Malika Satayeva, Jibril Frej, Thierry Bossy, Thijs Vogels, Martin Jaggi, Tanja Käser, Mary-Anne Hartley

Predicting multiple real-world tasks in a single model often requires a particularly diverse feature space. Multimodal (MM) models aim to extract the synergistic predictive potential of multiple data types to create a shared feature space with aligned semantic meaning across inputs of drastically varying sizes (i.e. images, text, sound). Most current MM architectures fuse these representations in parallel, which not only limits their interpretability but also creates a dependency on modality availability. We present MultiModN, a multimodal, modular network that fuses latent representations in a sequence of any number, combination, or type of modality while providing granular real-time predictive feedback on any number or combination of predictive tasks. MultiModN's composable pipeline is interpretable-by-design, as well as innately multi-task and robust to the fundamental issue of biased missingness. We perform four experiments on several benchmark MM datasets across 10 real-world tasks (predicting medical diagnoses, academic performance, and weather), and show that MultiModN's sequential MM fusion does not compromise performance compared with a baseline of parallel fusion. By simulating the challenging bias of missing not-at-random (MNAR), this work shows that, contrary to MultiModN, parallel fusion baselines erroneously learn MNAR and suffer catastrophic failure when faced with different patterns of MNAR at inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first inherently MNAR-resistant approach to MM modeling. In conclusion, MultiModN provides granular insights, robustness, and flexibility without compromising performance.

Deep Learning/Attention Mechanisms

Xiaolei Ru, XINYA ZHANG, Zijia Liu, Jack Murdoch Moore, Gang Yan

We consider the problem of reconstructing coupled networks (e.g., biological neural networks) connecting large numbers of variables (e.g.,nerve cells), of which state evolution is governed by dissipative dynamics consisting of strong self-drive (dominants the evolution) and weak coupling-drive. The core difficulty is sparseness of coupling effect that emerges (the coupling force is significant) only momentarily and otherwise remains quiescent in time series (e.g., neuronal activity sequence). Here we learn the idea from attention mechanism to guide the classifier to make inference focusing on the critical regions of time series data where coupling effect may manifest. Specifically, attention coefficients are assigned autonomously by artificial neural networks trained to maximise the Attentive Transfer Entropy (ATEn), which is a novel generalization of the iconic transfer entropy metric. Our results show that, without any prior knowledge of dynamics, ATEn explicitly identifies areas where the strength of coupling-drive is distinctly greater than zero. This innovation substantially improves reconstruction performance for both synthetic and real directed coupling networks using data generated by neuronal models widely used in neuroscience.

Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders

Zacharia Issa, Blanka Horvath, Maud Lemercier, Cristopher Salvi

Neural SDEs are continuous-time generative models for sequential data. State-of-the-art performance for irregular time series generation has been previously obtained by training these models adversarially as GANs. However, as typical for GAN architectures, training is notoriously unstable, often suffers from mode collapse, and requires specialised techniques such as weight clipping and gradient penalty to mitigate these issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of scoring rules on pathspace based on signature kernels and use them as objective for training Neural SDEs non-adversarially. By showing strict properness of such kernel scores and consistency of the corresponding estimators, we provide existence and uniqueness guarantees for the minimiser. With this formulation, evaluating the generator-discriminator pair amounts to solving a system of linear path-dependent PDEs which allows for memory-efficient adjoint-based backpropagation. Moreover, because the proposed kernel scores are well-defined for paths with values in infinite dimensional spaces of functions, our framework can be easily extended to generate spatiotemporal data. Our procedure significantly outperforms alternative ways of training Neural SDEs on a variety of tasks including the simulation of rough volatility models, the conditional probabilistic forecasts of real-world forex pairs where the conditioning variable is an observed past trajectory, and the mesh-free generation of limit order book dynamics.

Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders

François Rozet, Gilles Louppe

Data assimilation, in its most comprehensive form, addresses the Bayesian inverse problem of identifying plausible state trajectories that explain noisy or incomplete observations of stochastic dynamical systems. Various approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, including particle-based and variational methods. However, most algorithms depend on the transition dynamics for inference, which becomes intractable for long time horizons or for high-dimensional systems with complex dynamics, such as oceans or atmospheres. In this work, we introduce score-based data assimilation for trajectory inference. We learn a score-based generative model of state trajectories based on the key insight that the score of an arbitrarily long trajectory can be decomposed into a series of scores over short segments. After training, inference is carried out using the score model, in a non-autoregressive manner by generating all states simultaneously. Quite distinctively, we decouple the observation model from the training procedure and use it only at inference to guide the generative process, which enables a wide range of zero-shot observation scenarios. We present theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of our method.