Evaluating the performance of large language models (LLMs) from human preference data is crucial for obtaining LLM leaderboards. However, many existing approaches either rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or lack valid uncertainty quantification when flexible machine learning methods are used. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric statistical framework, called DMLRank, for comparing and ranking LLMs from preference data using debiased machine learning (DML). For this, we introduce generalized average ranking scores (GARS), which generalize commonly used ranking models, including the Bradley-Terry model or PageRank/ Rank centrality with complex human responses such as ties. \framework comes with the following advantages: (i)~It produces statistically efficient estimates of GARS ranking scores. (ii) It naturally allows to incorporate black-box machine learning methods for estimation. (iii) It can be combined with pre-trained LLM evaluators (e.g., using LLM-as-a-judge). (iv) It suggests optimal policies for collecting preference data under budget constraints. We demonstrate these advantages both theoretically and empirically using both synthetic and real-world preference datasets. In summary, our framework provides practitioners with powerful, state-of-the-art methods for comparing or ranking LLMs for leaderboards.
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Deep Learning · Large Language Models
High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news. While directly training on this data leads to performance drops, carefully curating questions creates a valuable training resource. We use the resulting dataset, OpenForesight, to post-train Qwen3 thinking models. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster-8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We will open-source our models, code, and data to make LLM based forecasting research broadly accessible.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
The Plan-then-Code paradigm effectively enhances Large Language Models (LLMs) in complex code generation by decomposing reasoning into explicit, interpretable steps. However, introducing the plan and verification report substantially enlarges the context, which in turn misdirects the model’s attention toward irrelevant tokens and the most recently generated code. This effect leads the model to overlook critical constraints and to generate incorrect code, especially for small-scale LLMs (less than 8B). To address this issue, we propose \textbf{P}erturbation-Verified \textbf{A}ttention \textbf{D}istillation and Dynamic \textbf{A}lignment (PADA). PADA identifies the key tokens most critical to the student model and constructs the optimal attention target matrix, dynamically aligning the student’s focus with key tokens for each plan step. We evaluate PADA with two teacher models and three student models across seven benchmarks, and the results show that PADA improves Pass@1 by up to 16.7\% and outperforms SOTA methods in all settings. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PADA-coder
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
Accurate seasonal‑to‑interannual climate forecasting provides critical support for decision-making in agriculture, energy, and disaster preparedness. Current deterministic models often fail to capture climate uncertainty, while existing generative approaches oversimplify the system by neglecting key spatiotemporal dependencies and cross-scale interactions. To address these limitations, we introduce ClimateAR, an AutoRegressive generative model for probabilistic seasonal-to-interannual Climate forecasting. The framework incorporates two novel components: (1) an aligned tokenizer that bridges and aligns heterogeneous simulation and real-world data to improve transferability across domains, and (2) a mixed-scale conditioning mechanism that captures multi-scale climate interactions for robust probabilistic forecasting. Extensive evaluations on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset show that ClimateAR achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving anomaly correlation skill by 37.56\% on average compared to leading baselines. The Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ClimateAR-956D.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have become a cornerstone in mechanistic interpretability. However, current training methods inherit the Block Training paradigm from LLM pre-training. We identify this as a critical methodological oversight when applied to instruct models. Theoretically, utilizing GSNR analysis, we prove that attention leakage from unrelated contexts introduces destructive gradient noise. To rectify this paradigm, we propose $\underline{\textbf{F}}$inetuning-$\underline{\textbf{a}}$ligned $\underline{\textbf{S}}$equential $\underline{\textbf{T}}$raining ($\textit{FAST}$), a novel training method specifically tailored for instruct models.$\textit{FAST}$ aligns the training process with the data distribution and activation patterns of instruct models, achieving substantial improvements in both reconstruction and feature interpretability. Experimental results validate the efficacy of$\textit{FAST}$. GSNR analysis confirms improved training performance, with $\textit{FAST}$ demonstrating higher GSNR. This translates into superior reconstruction fidelity: $\textit{FAST}$ achieves an MSE of 0.6468 (significantly outperforming the baseline’s 5.1985) and maintains a near-zero Delta Loss (-0.51% to 0.37%). Consequently, feature quality is markedly enhanced; on Llama-3.2-3B-it, $\textit{FAST}$ yields 21.1% high-quality features, surpassing the 7.0% and 10.2% achieved by baselines. Surprisingly, we discover that intervening on special token activations via SAEs improves output quality, suggesting new opportunities for fine-grained control. Code, data, and all 240 trained SAEs will be publicly released.
What would it mean to have a *scientific* understanding of AI? Language models are not static objects—they are snapshots of time-evolving processes shaped by data, objectives, and optimization dynamics. Yet the field predominantly treats models as fixed artifacts, analyzing behaviors after training rather than asking *why* they emerge. **This position paper argues that AI research should move beyond *post hoc* fixes and study the learning dynamics of models.** We envision a hierarchy of scientific maturity: first *predict* outcomes from early training signals, then *intervene* when trajectories go wrong, ultimately *design* training procedures that guarantee desired properties. Scaling laws have reached the first level for loss; the challenge is extending all three levels to general capabilities, biases, and safety. We articulate requirements for such theories, survey progress across mechanistic interpretability, fairness, memorization, and learning dynamics, and identify concrete open problems. The path forward requires treating models as processes to be understood, not just artifacts to be patched.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
By incorporating test-time compute scaling, large reasoning models (LRMs) are able to solve complex problems by generating explicit chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning processes. However, they often suffer from overthinking during generation, resulting in redundant token outputs and degraded accuracy. Existing methods to mitigate this issue remain limited: training-based approaches incur substantial training costs, while training-free methods often rely on well-crafted prompting or unreliable confidence signals. In this work, we study early stopping through attention distributions and propose a simple method, ASAG, that infers the model's reasoning state and adaptively adjusts the generation strategy. The proposed method is training-free and plug-and-play, enabling seamless integration into existing LRMs. Extensive experiments on nine benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements across mainstream LRMs with varying parameter scales, including the Deepseek-R1-Distill and Qwen3 series. In particular, ASAG achieves a 4.4% relative improvement in accuracy while reducing the number of generated tokens by over 40% across all reasoning tasks on Qwen3-8B.
Theory · Everything Else
Hybrid sequence models—combining Transformer and state-space model layers—seek to gain the expressive versatility of attention as well as the computational efficiency of state-space model layers. Despite burgeoning interest in hybrid models, we lack a basic understanding of the settings where—and underlying mechanisms through which—they offer benefits over their constituent models. In this paper, we study this question, focusing on a broad family of core synthetic tasks. For this family of tasks, we prove the existence of fundamental limitations for non-hybrid models. Specifically, any Transformer or state-space model that solves the underlying task requires either a large number of parameters or a large working memory. On the other hand, for two prototypical tasks within this family—namely selective copying and associative recall—we construct hybrid models of small size and working memory that provably solve these tasks, thus achieving the best of both worlds. Our experimental evaluation empirically validates our theoretical findings. Importantly, going beyond the settings in our theoretical analysis, we empirically show that learned—rather than constructed—hybrids outperform non-hybrid models with up to $6 \times$ as many parameters. We additionally demonstrate that hybrid models exhibit stronger length generalization and out-of-distribution robustness than non-hybrids.
Applications · Computer Vision
In most real-world image-to-image (I2I) scenarios, existing evaluations primarily focus on instruction following and the perceptual quality or aesthetics of the generated images. However, they largely fail to assess whether the output image preserves the semantic correspondence and spatial structure of the input image. To address this limitation, we propose StableI2I, a unified and dynamic evaluation framework that explicitly measures content fidelity and pre--post consistency across a wide range of I2I tasks without requiring reference images, including image editing and image restoration. In addition, we construct StableI2I-Bench, a benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the accuracy of MLLMs on such fidelity and consistency assessment tasks. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that StableI2I provides accurate, fine-grained, and interpretable evaluations of content fidelity and consistency, with strong correlations to human subjective judgments. Our framework serves as a practical and reliable evaluation tool for diagnosing content consistency and benchmarking model performance in real-world I2I systems.
Applications · Computer Vision
Aligning objects with corresponding textual descriptions is a fundamental challenge and a realistic requirement in vision-language understanding. While recent multimodal embedding models excel at global image-text alignment, they often struggle with fine-grained alignment between image regions and specific phrases. In this work, we present ObjEmbed, a novel MLLM embedding model that decomposes the input image into multiple regional embeddings, each corresponding to an individual object, along with global embeddings. It supports a wide range of visual understanding tasks like visual grounding, local image retrieval, and global image retrieval. ObjEmbed enjoys three key properties: (1) Object-Oriented Representation: It captures both semantic and spatial aspects of objects by generating two complementary embeddings for each region: an object embedding for semantic matching and an IoU embedding that predicts localization quality. The final object matching score combines semantic similarity with the predicted IoU, enabling more accurate retrieval. (2) Versatility: It seamlessly handles both region-level and image-level tasks. (3) Efficient Encoding: All objects in an image, along with the full image, are encoded in a single forward pass for high efficiency. Superior performance on 18 diverse benchmarks demonstrates its strong semantic discrimination. We will release the code, models, and data for future research.
Social Aspects · Privacy
Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on sensitive datasets raises privacy concerns, as training data extraction (TDE) attacks can expose highly confidential information. Existing defenses against such attacks either lack formal privacy guarantees or incur substantial utility degradation. We observe that fine-tuning induces widespread probability shifts, yet preserving only a small subset of influential token-level deviations is sufficient; the remaining shifts can be aggressively smoothed with minimal impact on utility. Motivated by this insight, we propose SCP-$\Delta_r$, a Near Access Freeness (NAF)-based algorithm that operates on relative probabilities and explicitly smooths low-impact tokens using a base model. SCP-$\Delta_r$ achieves orders-of-magnitude better theoretical bounds than existing NAF based methods and provides strong empirical protection against TDE attacks with minimal performance loss.
Optimization · Everything Else
Graph coarsening is a fundamental dimensionality reduction technique for scaling large graphs while preserving structural and feature information. However, most existing coarsening methods are designed for static graphs and do not extend well to dynamic settings where nodes, edges, and connectivity patterns evolve over time. Recomputing a coarsened graph from scratch after every update is often infeasible, which limits scalability and real-time applicability. To address this, we propose a unified framework for coarsening discrete-time dynamic graphs by incrementally updating the coarsening mapping matrix. The framework initializes from any static coarsening technique and then efficiently incorporates real-world graph events, including node additions, node deletions, and edge modifications. We instantiate this framework with two optimization based incremental update algorithms tailored to different dynamic regimes, one focusing on efficiently integrating growth related changes and another handling broader topology evolution with adaptive reassignment. We derive fast and scalable solvers with convergence guarantees, and provide theoretical guarantee via $\epsilon$-similarity bounds that quantify and control quality degradation in the coarsened graph. Extensive experiments under realistic dynamic scenarios show substantial improvements in runtime and memory, delivering significant speedups while maintaining or improving downstream task performance, including graph neural network accuracy.
Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods
This paper is concerned with differentiable resampling in the context of sequential Monte Carlo (e.g., particle filtering). We propose a new informative resampling method that is instantly differentiable, based on an ensemble score diffusion model. We theoretically prove that our diffusion resampling method provides a consistent resampling distribution, and we show empirically that it outperforms the state-of-the-art differentiable resampling methods on multiple filtering and parameter estimation benchmarks. Finally, we show that it achieves competitive end-to-end performance when used in learning a complex dynamics-decoder model with high-dimensional image observations.
Transformers have been established as the most popular backbones in sequence modeling, mainly due to their effectiveness in in-context retrieval tasks and the ability to learn at scale. Their quadratic memory and time complexity, however, bound their applicability in longer sequences and so has motivated researchers to explore effective alternative architectures such as modern recurrent neural networks (a.k.a long-term recurrent memory module). Despite their recent success in diverse downstream tasks, they struggle in tasks that requires long context understanding and extrapolation to longer sequences. We observe that these shortcomings come from three disjoint aspects in their design: (1) limited memory capacity that is bounded by the architecture of memory and feature mapping of the input; (2) online nature of update, i.e., optimizing the memory only with respect to the last input; and (3) less expressive management of their fixed-size memory. To enhance all these three aspects, we present Atlas, a long-term memory module with high capacity that learns to memorize the context by optimizing the memory based on the current and past tokens, overcoming the online nature of long-term memory models. Our experimental results on language modeling, common-sense reasoning, recall-intensive, and long-context understanding tasks support the effectiveness of Atlas compared to other modern recurrent neural networks.
Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders
The two-sample testing problem, a fundamental task in statistics and machine learning, seeks to determine whether two sets of samples, drawn from underlying distributions $p$ and $q$, are in fact identically distributed (i.e.~whether $p=q$). A popular and intuitive approach is the classifier two-sample test (C2ST), where a classifier is trained to distinguish between samples from $p$ and $q$. Yet despite simplicity of the C2ST, its reliability hinges on access to a near-Bayes-optimal classifier, a requirement that is rarely met and difficult to verify. This raises a major open question: can a weak classifier still be useful for two-sample testing? We show that the answer is a definitive yes. Building on the work of Hu & Lei (2024), we analyze two conformal variants of the C2ST that convert the scores from any trained classifier---even if weak, biased, or overfit---into exact, finite-sample p-values. We establish two key theoretical properties of the conformal C2ST: (i) finite-sample Type-I error control, and (ii) non-trivial power that degrades gently in tandem with the error of the trained classifier. The upshot is that even poorly performing classifiers can yield powerful and reliable two-sample tests. This general framework finds a powerful application in Bayesian inference, particularly for validating Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) models, where the task of comparing a learned posterior approximation $q(\theta \mid y)$ to the true posterior $p(\theta \mid y)$ can be framed as a two-sample test. Empirically, the Conformal C2ST outperforms classical discriminative tests across a wide range of benchmarks for this task. Our results establish the conformal C2ST as a practical, theoretically grounded diagnostic tool.
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
The high cost and data scarcity in scientific exploration have motivated the use of large language models (LLMs) as knowledge-driven components in Bayesian optimization (BO). However, existing approaches typically embed LLMs directly into the sampling or surrogate modeling pipeline, without fully leveraging their significantly lower evaluation cost compared to real-world experiments. To address this limitation, we propose LLM-Accelerated Bayesian Optimization (LABO), a framework that combines LLM predictions with experimental observations within a single BO loop. LABO employs a gating mechanism to dynamically balance reliance on LLM predictions versus actual experiments. By leveraging inexpensive LLM evaluations to broadly explore the search space and reserving costly real experiments only for regions with high uncertainty, LABO achieves more sample-efficient optimization. We provide a theoretical analysis with a cumulative regret bound that formalizes this efficiency gain. Empirical results across diverse scientific tasks demonstrate that LABO consistently outperforms existing methods under identical experimental budgets. Our results suggest that LABO offers a practical and theoretically grounded approach for integrating LLMs into scientific discovery workflows.
Applications · Time Series
Effective time series forecasting enables various real-world applications, benefiting from the proliferation of mobile devices. However, the volume of time series data may vary significantly across domains due to low sampling rates and data regulations. To maximally create value from sparse data, this study focuses on a new problem of source-free time series forecasting, aiming to adapt a pretrained model from sufficient source time series to the sparse target time series without access to the source data, enabling data protection. To achieve this, we propose TimeID, a novel source-free time series forecasting framework with a large language model (LLM) centric proxy denoising inspired by the powerful generalization capabilities of LLMs. Specifically, TimeID consists of three key components: (1) dual-branch invariant disentangled feature learning that enforces representation- and gradient-wise invariance by means of season-trend decomposition; (2) lightweight, parameter-free proxy denoising that dynamically calibrates systematic biases of LLMs; and (3) knowledge distillation that bidirectionally aligns the denoised prediction and the original target prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeID outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, improving MSE and MAE by 10.7\% and 9.3\% on average. The code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TimeID-6D1D/.
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
Inferring cellular trajectories from destructive snapshots is complicated by the challenges of stochasticity and non-conservative mass dynamics such as cell proliferation and apoptosis. Existing unbalanced Optimal Transport (OT) methods treat mass as a continuous fluid, performing inference at the population level. However, this macroscopic view often fails to capture the discrete, jump-like nature of birth-death events at single-cell resolution, which is essential for understanding lineage branching and fate decisions. We present **Unbalanced Schrödinger Bridge (USB)**, a simulation-free framework for learning underlying dynamics that effectively integrates both stochastic and unbalanced effects which also models the discrete, jump-like birth–death dynamics at single-cell resolution. Theoretically, USB provides a tractable solution to the Branching Schrödinger Bridge (BSB) problem, offering a rigorous microscopic interpretation where individual cells undergo both Brownian motion and discrete birth-death jumps. Technically, the method implements an efficient solver by introducing a simulation-free training objective that effectively scales to high-dimensional omics data. Empirically, we demonstrate on both simulated and real-world datasets that USB not only achieves trajectory reconstruction performance better than or comparable to deterministic baselines but also uniquely enables realistic discrete simulation of birth-death dynamics at single-cell resolution.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as automated evaluators that assign numeric scores to model outputs, a paradigm known as LLM-as-a-Judge. However, standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods typically rely on binary rewards (e.g., 0-1 accuracy), thereby ignoring the ordinal structure inherent in regression tasks; for instance, they fail to recognize that predicting 4 is significantly better than predicting 1 when the ground truth is 5. Conversely, existing regression-aware approaches are often confined to Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), limiting their ability to explore optimal reasoning paths. To bridge this gap, we propose REAL (Regression-Aware Reinforcement Learning), a principled RL framework designed to optimize regression rewards, and also proven to be optimal for correlation metrics. A key technical challenge is that the regression objective is explicitly policy-dependent, thus invalidating standard policy gradient methods. To address this, we employ the generalized policy gradient estimator, which naturally decomposes optimization into two complementary components: (1) exploration over Chain-of-Thought (CoT) trajectory, and (2) regression-aware prediction refinement of the final score. Extensive experiments across model scales (8B to 32B) demonstrate that REAL consistently outperforms both regression-aware SFT baselines and standard RL methods, exhibiting significantly better generalization on out-of-domain benchmarks. On Qwen3-32B specifically, we achieve gains of +8.40 Pearson and +7.20 Spearman correlation over the SFT baseline, and +18.30/+11.20 over the base model. These findings highlight the critical value of integrating regression objectives into RL exploration for accurate LLM evaluation.
Transformers have been established as the de-facto backbones for most recent advances in sequence modeling, mainly due to their growing memory capacity that scales with the context length. While plausible for retrieval tasks, it causes quadratic complexity and so has motivated recent studies to explore viable subquadratic recurrent alternatives. Despite showing promising preliminary results in diverse tasks, such recurrent architectures underperform Transformers in recall-intensive tasks, {often attributed to their fixed-size memory. In this paper, we introduce Memory Caching (MC), a simple yet effective technique that enhances recurrent models by caching checkpoints of their memory states (a.k.a. hidden states). Memory Caching allows the effective memory capacity of RNNs to grow with sequence length, offering a flexible trade-off that interpolates between the fixed memory ( $O(L)$ complexity) of RNNs and the growing memory ( $O(L^2)$ complexity) of Transformers. We propose four variants of MC, including gated aggregation and sparse selective mechanisms, and discuss their implications on both linear and deep memory modules.} Our experimental results on language modeling, and long-context understanding tasks show that MC enhances the performance of recurrent models, supporting its effectiveness. In in-context recall tasks, our results indicate that while Transformers still achieve the best performance, our MC variants show competitive performance, close the gap with Transformers, and performs better than state-of-the-art recurrent models.