论文检索

Reinforcement Learning/Multi-agent

Zikang Tian, Ruizhi Chen, Xing Hu, Ling Li, Rui Zhang, Fan Wu, Shaohui Peng, Jiaming Guo, Zidong Du, Qi Guo 等

In recent years, Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) techniques have made significant strides in achieving high asymptotic performance in single task. However, there has been limited exploration of model transferability across tasks. Training a model from scratch for each task can be time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-scale Multi-Agent Systems. Therefore, it is crucial to develop methods for generalizing the model across tasks. Considering that there exist task-independent subtasks across MARL tasks, a model that can decompose such subtasks from the source task could generalize to target tasks. However, ensuring true task-independence of subtasks poses a challenge. In this paper, we propose to \textbf{d}ecompose a \textbf{t}ask in\textbf{to} a series of \textbf{g}eneralizable \textbf{s}ubtasks (DT2GS), a novel framework that addresses this challenge by utilizing a scalable subtask encoder and an adaptive subtask semantic module. We show that these components endow subtasks with two properties critical for task-independence: avoiding overfitting to the source task and maintaining consistent yet scalable semantics across tasks. Empirical results demonstrate that DT2GS possesses sound zero-shot generalization capability across tasks, exhibits sufficient transferability, and outperforms existing methods in both multi-task and single-task problems.

Reinforcement Learning

Ti-Rong Wu, Hung Guei, Ting Han Wei, Chung-Chin Shih, Jui-Te Chin, I-Chen Wu

Game solving is a similar, yet more difficult task than mastering a game. Solving a game typically means to find the game-theoretic value (outcome given optimal play), and optionally a full strategy to follow in order to achieve that outcome. The AlphaZero algorithm has demonstrated super-human level play, and its powerful policy and value predictions have also served as heuristics in game solving. However, to solve a game and obtain a full strategy, a winning response must be found for all possible moves by the losing player. This includes very poor lines of play from the losing side, for which the AlphaZero self-play process will not encounter. AlphaZero-based heuristics can be highly inaccurate when evaluating these out-of-distribution positions, which occur throughout the entire search. To address this issue, this paper investigates applying online fine-tuning while searching and proposes two methods to learn tailor-designed heuristics for game solving. Our experiments show that using online fine-tuning can solve a series of challenging 7x7 Killall-Go problems, using only 23.54\% of computation time compared to the baseline without online fine-tuning. Results suggest that the savings scale with problem size. Our method can further be extended to any tree search algorithm for problem solving. Our code is available at https://rlg.iis.sinica.edu.tw/papers/neurips2023-online-fine-tuning-solver.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Shangshang Yang, Xiaoshan Yu, Ye Tian, Xueming Yan, Haiping Ma, Xingyi Zhang

Knowledge tracing (KT) aims to trace students' knowledge states by predicting whether students answer correctly on exercises. Despite the excellent performance of existing Transformer-based KT approaches, they are criticized for the manually selected input features for fusion and the defect of single global context modelling to directly capture students' forgetting behavior in KT, when the related records are distant from the current record in terms of time. To address the issues, this paper first considers adding convolution operations to the Transformer to enhance its local context modelling ability used for students' forgetting behavior, then proposes an evolutionary neural architecture search approach to automate the input feature selection and automatically determine where to apply which operation for achieving the balancing of the local/global context modelling. In the search space, the original global path containing the attention module in Transformer is replaced with the sum of a global path and a local path that could contain different convolutions, and the selection of input features is also considered. To search the best architecture, we employ an effective evolutionary algorithm to explore the search space and also suggest a search space reduction strategy to accelerate the convergence of the algorithm. Experimental results on the two largest and most challenging education datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the architecture found by the proposed approach.

Applications/Time Series

Zelin Ni, Hang Yu, Shizhan Liu, Jianguo Li, Weiyao Lin

Bases have become an integral part of modern deep learning-based models for time series forecasting due to their ability to act as feature extractors or future references. To be effective, a basis must be tailored to the specific set of time series data and exhibit distinct correlation with each time series within the set. However, current state-of-the-art methods are limited in their ability to satisfy both of these requirements simultaneously. To address this challenge, we propose BasisFormer, an end-to-end time series forecasting architecture that leverages learnable and interpretable bases. This architecture comprises three components: First, we acquire bases through adaptive self-supervised learning, which treats the historical and future sections of the time series as two distinct views and employs contrastive learning. Next, we design a Coef module that calculates the similarity coefficients between the time series and bases in the historical view via bidirectional cross-attention. Finally, we present a Forecast module that selects and consolidates the bases in the future view based on the similarity coefficients, resulting in accurate future predictions. Through extensive experiments on six datasets, we demonstrate that BasisFormer outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods by 11.04% and 15.78% respectively for univariate and multivariate forecasting tasks. Code isavailable at: https://github.com/nzl5116190/Basisformer.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Henry C Bendekgey, Gabe Hope, Erik Sudderth

By composing graphical models with deep learning architectures, we learn generative models with the strengths of both frameworks. The structured variational autoencoder (SVAE) inherits structure and interpretability from graphical models, and flexible likelihoods for high-dimensional data from deep learning, but poses substantial optimization challenges. We propose novel algorithms for learning SVAEs, and are the first to demonstrate the SVAE's ability to handle multimodal uncertainty when data is missing by incorporating discrete latent variables. Our memory-efficient implicit differentiation scheme makes the SVAE tractable to learn via gradient descent, while demonstrating robustness to incomplete optimization. To more rapidly learn accurate graphical model parameters, we derive a method for computing natural gradients without manual derivations, which avoids biases found in prior work. These optimization innovations enable the first comparisons of the SVAE to state-of-the-art time series models, where the SVAE performs competitively while learning interpretable and structured discrete data representations.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Vaisakh Shaj Kumar, SALEH GHOLAM ZADEH, Ozan Demir, Luiz Douat, Gerhard Neumann

Intelligent agents use internal world models to reason and make predictions about different courses of their actions at many scales. Devising learning paradigms and architectures that allow machines to learn world models that operate at multiple levels of temporal abstractions while dealing with complex uncertainty predictions is a major technical hurdle. In this work, we propose a probabilistic formalism to learn multi-time scale world models which we call the Multi Time Scale State Space (MTS3) model. Our model uses a computationally efficient inference scheme on multiple time scales for highly accurate long-horizon predictions and uncertainty estimates over several seconds into the future. Our experiments, which focus on action conditional long horizon future predictions, show that MTS3 outperforms recent methods on several system identification benchmarks including complex simulated and real-world dynamical systems. Code is available at this repository:https://github.com/ALRhub/MTS3.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Allan Raventós, Mansheej Paul, Feng Chen, Surya Ganguli

Pretrained transformers exhibit the remarkable ability of in-context learning (ICL): they can learn tasks from just a few examples provided in the prompt without updating any weights. This raises a foundational question: can ICL solve fundamentally _new_ tasks that are very different from those seen during pretraining? To probe this question, we examine ICL’s performance on linear regression while varying the diversity of tasks in the pretraining dataset. We empirically demonstrate a _task diversity threshold_ for the emergence of ICL. Below this threshold, the pretrained transformer cannot solve unseen regression tasks, instead behaving like a Bayesian estimator with the _non-diverse pretraining task distribution_ as the prior. Beyond this threshold, the transformer significantly outperforms this estimator; its behavior aligns with that of ridge regression, corresponding to a Gaussian prior over _all tasks_, including those not seen during pretraining. Thus, when pretrained on data with task diversity greater than the threshold, transformers _can_ optimally solve fundamentally new tasks in-context. Importantly, this capability hinges on it deviating from the Bayes optimal estimator with the pretraining distribution as the prior. This study also explores the effect of regularization, model capacity and task structure and underscores, in a concrete example, the critical role of task diversity, alongside data and model scale, in the emergence of ICL.

Deep Learning

Oussama Boussif, Ghait Boukachab, Dan Assouline, Stefano Massaroli, Tianle Yuan, Loubna Benabbou, Yoshua Bengio

Solar power harbors immense potential in mitigating climate change by substantially reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions. Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context.In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate day-ahead time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations. Our approach exhibits robust performance in solar irradiance forecasting, including zero-shot generalization tests at unobserved solar stations, and holds great promise in promoting the effective integration of solar power into the grid.

Applications/Physics

Xihan Li, Xiang Chen, Rasul Tutunov, Haitham Bou Ammar, Lei Wang, Jun Wang

Self-consistent Field (SCF) equation is a type of nonlinear eigenvalue problem in which the matrix to be eigen-decomposed is a function of its own eigenvectors. It is of great significance in computational science for its connection to the Schrödinger equation. Traditional fixed-point iteration methods for solving such equations suffer from non-convergence issues. In this work, we present a novel perspective on such SCF equations as a principal component analysis (PCA) for non-stationary time series, in which a distribution and its own top principal components are mutually updated over time, and the equilibrium state of the model corresponds to the solution of the SCF equations. By the new perspective, online PCA techniques are able to engage in so as to enhance the convergence of the model towards the equilibrium state, acting as a new set of tools for converging the SCF equations. With several numerical adaptations, we then develop a new algorithm for converging the SCF equation, and demonstrated its high convergence capacity with experiments on both synthesized and real electronic structure scenarios.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Zihao Zhou, Rose Yu

Learning continuous-time point processes is essential to many discrete event forecasting tasks. However, integration poses a major challenge, particularly for spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs), as it involves calculating the likelihood through triple integrals over space and time. Existing methods for integrating STPP either assume a parametric form of the intensity function, which lacks flexibility; or approximating the intensity with Monte Carlo sampling, which introduces numerical errors. Recent work by Omi et al. proposes a dual network approach for efficient integration of flexible intensity function. However, their method only focuses on the 1D temporal point process. In this paper, we introduce a novel paradigm: `Auto-STPP` (Automatic Integration for Spatiotemporal Neural Point Processes) that extends the dual network approach to 3D STPP. While previous work provides a foundation, its direct extension overly restricts the intensity function and leads to computational challenges. In response, we introduce a decomposable parametrization for the integral network using ProdNet. This approach, leveraging the product of simplified univariate graphs, effectively sidesteps the computational complexities inherent in multivariate computational graphs. We prove the consistency of `Auto-STPP` and validate it on synthetic data and benchmark real-world datasets. `Auto-STPP` shows a significant advantage in recovering complex intensity functions from irregular spatiotemporal events, particularly when the intensity is sharply localized. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/AutoSTPP.

Applications/Time Series

Yuxin Jia, Youfang Lin, Xinyan Hao, Yan Lin, Shengnan Guo, Huaiyu Wan

Capturing semantic information is crucial for accurate long-range time series forecasting, which involves modeling global and local correlations, as well as discovering long- and short-term repetitive patterns. Previous works have partially addressed these issues separately, but have not been able to address all of them simultaneously. Meanwhile, their time and memory complexities are still not sufficiently low for long-range forecasting. To address the challenge of capturing different types of semantic information, we propose a novel Water-wave Information Transmission (WIT) framework. This framework captures both long- and short-term repetitive patterns through bi-granular information transmission. It also models global and local correlations by recursively fusing and selecting information using Horizontal Vertical Gated Selective Unit (HVGSU). In addition, to improve the computing efficiency, we propose a generic Recurrent Acceleration Network (RAN) which reduces the time complexity to $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{L})$ while maintaining the memory complexity at $\mathcal{O}(L)$. Our proposed method, called Water-wave Information Transmission and Recurrent Acceleration Network (WITRAN), outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by 5.80% and 14.28% on long-range and ultra-long-range time series forecasting tasks respectively, as demonstrated by experiments on four benchmark datasets. The code is available at: https://github.com/Water2sea/WITRAN.

Theory/Game Theory

Victor Boone, Panayotis Mertikopoulos

In this paper, we examine the long-run behavior of regularized, no-regret learning in finite N-player games. A well-known result in the field states that the empirical frequencies of play under no-regret learning converge to the game’s set of coarse correlated equilibria; however, our understanding of how the players' _actual strategies_ evolve over time is much more limited – and, in many cases, non-existent. This issue is exacerbated further by a series of recent results showing that _only_ strict Nash equilibria are stable and attracting under regularized learning, thus making the relation between learning and _pointwise_ solution concepts particularly elusive. In lieu of this, we take a more general approach and instead seek to characterize the _setwise_ rationality properties of the players' day-to-day trajectory of play. To do so, we focus on one of the most stringent criteria of setwise strategic stability, namely that any unilateral deviation from the set in question incurs a cost to the deviator – a property known as _closedness under better replies_ (club). In so doing, we obtain a remarkable equivalence between strategic and dynamic stability: _a product of pure strategies is closed under better replies if and only if its span is stable and attracting under regularized learning._ In addition, we estimate the rate of convergence to such sets, and we show that methods based on entropic regularization (like the exponential weights algorithm) converge at a geometric rate, while projection-based methods converge within a finite number of iterations, even with bandit, payoff-based feedback.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Berken Utku Demirel, Christian Holz

The success of contrastive learning is well known to be dependent on data augmentation.Although the degree of data augmentations has been well controlled by utilizing pre-defined techniques in some domains like vision, time-series data augmentation is less explored and remains a challenging problem due to the complexity of the data generation mechanism, such as the intricate mechanism involved in the cardiovascular system.Moreover, there is no widely recognized and general time-series augmentation method that can be applied across different tasks.In this paper, we propose a novel data augmentation method for time-series tasks that aims to connect intra-class samples together, and thereby find order in the latent space.Our method builds upon the well-known data augmentation technique of mixup by incorporating a novel approach that accounts for the non-stationary nature of time-series data.Also, by controlling the degree of chaos created by data augmentation, our method leads to improved feature representations and performance on downstream tasks.We evaluate our proposed method on three time-series tasks, including heart rate estimation, human activity recognition, and cardiovascular disease detection. Extensive experiments against the state-of-the-art methods show that the proposed method outperforms prior works on optimal data generation and known data augmentation techniques in three tasks, reflecting the effectiveness of the presented method. The source code is available at double-blind policy.

Social Aspects/Trustworthy Machine Learning

Mintong Kang, Dawn Song, Bo Li

Diffusion-based purification defenses leverage diffusion models to remove crafted perturbations of adversarial examples and achieve state-of-the-art robustness. Recent studies show that even advanced attacks cannot break such defenses effectively, since the purification process induces an extremely deep computational graph which poses the potential problem of gradient obfuscation, high memory cost, and unbounded randomness. In this paper, we propose a unified framework DiffAttack to perform effective and efficient attacks against diffusion-based purification defenses, including both DDPM and score-based approaches. In particular, we propose a deviated-reconstruction loss at intermediate diffusion steps to induce inaccurate density gradient estimation to tackle the problem of vanishing/exploding gradients. We also provide a segment-wise forwarding-backwarding algorithm, which leads to memory-efficient gradient backpropagation. We validate the attack effectiveness of DiffAttack compared with existing adaptive attacks on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. We show that DiffAttack decreases the robust accuracy of models compared with SOTA attacks by over 20\% on CIFAR-10 under $\ell_\infty$ attack $(\epsilon=8/255)$, and over 10\% on ImageNet under $\ell_\infty$ attack $(\epsilon=4/255)$. We conduct a series of ablations studies, and we find 1) DiffAttack with the deviated-reconstruction loss added over uniformly sampled time steps is more effective than that added over only initial/final steps, and 2) diffusion-based purification with a moderate diffusion length is more robust under DiffAttack.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Giovanni De Felice, John Goulermas, Vladimir Gusev

Kernel design is a pivotal but challenging aspect of time series analysis, especially in the context of small datasets. In recent years, Reservoir Computing (RC) has emerged as a powerful tool to compare time series based on the underlying dynamics of the generating process rather than the observed data. However, the performance of RC highly depends on the hyperparameter setting, which is hard to interpret and costly to optimize because of the recurrent nature of RC. Here, we present a new kernel for time series based on the recently established equivalence between reservoir dynamics and Nonlinear Vector AutoRegressive (NVAR) processes. The kernel is non-recurrent and depends on a small set of meaningful hyperparameters, for which we suggest an effective heuristic. We demonstrate excellent performance on a wide range of real-world classification tasks, both in terms of accuracy and speed. This further advances the understanding of RC representation learning models and extends the typical use of the NVAR framework to kernel design and representation of real-world time series data.

Applications/Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Tracey Mills, Josh Tenenbaum, Samuel Cheyette

People are adept at learning a wide variety of structured patterns from small amounts of data, presenting a conundrum from the standpoint of the bias-variance tradeoff: what kinds of representations and algorithms support the joint flexibility and data-paucity of human learning? One possibility is that people "learn by programming": inducing probabilistic models to fit observed data. Here, we experimentally test human learning in the domain of structured 2-dimensional patterns, using a task in which participants repeatedly predicted where a dot would move based on its previous trajectory. We evaluate human performance against standard parametric and non-parametric time-series models, as well as two Bayesian program synthesis models whose hypotheses vary in their degree of structure: a compositional Gaussian Process model and a structured "Language of Thought" (LoT) model. We find that signatures of human pattern learning are best explained by the LoT model, supporting the idea that the flexibility and data-efficiency of human structure learning can be understood as probabilistic inference over an expressive space of programs.

Probabilistic Methods/Variational Inference

Sebastian Zeng, Florian Graf, Roland Kwitt

We consider the problem of variational Bayesian inference in a latent variable model where a (possibly complex) observed stochastic process is governed by the unobserved solution of a latent stochastic differential equation (SDE). Motivated by the challenges that arise when trying to learn a latent SDE in $\mathbb{R}^n$ from large-scale data, such as efficient gradient computation, we take a step back and study a specific subclass instead. In our case, the SDE evolves inside a homogeneous latent space and is induced by stochastic dynamics of the corresponding (matrix) Lie group. In the context of learning problems, SDEs on the $n$-dimensional unit sphere are arguably the most relevant incarnation of this setup. For variational inference, the sphere not only facilitates using a uniform prior on the initial state of the SDE, but we also obtain a particularly simple and intuitive expression for the KL divergence between the approximate posterior and prior process in the evidence lower bound. We provide empirical evidence that a latent SDE of the proposed type can be learned efficiently by means of an existing one-step geometric Euler-Maruyama scheme. Despite restricting ourselves to a less diverse class of SDEs, we achieve competitive or even state-of-the-art performance on a collection of time series interpolation and classification benchmarks.

Christian Joppi, Geri Skenderi, Marco Cristani

We propose a data-centric pipeline able to generate exogenous observation data for the New Fashion Product Performance Forecasting (NFPPF) problem, i.e., predicting the performance of a brand-new clothing probe with no available past observations. Our pipeline manufactures the missing past starting from a single, available image of the clothing probe. It starts by expanding textual tags associated with the image, querying related fashionable or unfashionable images uploaded on the web at a specific time in the past. A binary classifier is robustly trained on these web images by confident learning, to learn what was fashionable in the past and how much the probe image conforms to this notion of fashionability. This compliance produces the POtential Performance (POP) time series, indicating how performing the probe could have been if it were available earlier. POP proves to be highly predictive for the probe’s future performance, ameliorating the sales forecasts of all state-of-the-art models on the recent VISUELLE fast-fashion dataset. We also show that POP reflects the ground-truth popularity of new styles (ensembles of clothing items) on the Fashion Forward benchmark, demonstrating that our webly-learned signal is a truthful expression of popularity, accessible by everyone and generalizable to any time of analysis. Forecasting code, data and the POP time series are available at: https://github.com/HumaticsLAB/POP-Mining-POtential-Performance

Aditi Basu Bal, Ramy Mounir, Sathyanarayanan Aakur, Sudeep Sarkar, Anuj Srivastava

Graph-based representations are becoming increasingly popular for representing and analyzing video data, especially in object tracking and scene understanding applications. Accordingly, an essential tool in this approach is to generate statistical inferences for graphical time series associated with videos. This paper develops a Kalman-smoothing method for estimating graphs from noisy, cluttered, and incomplete data. The main challenge here is to find and preserve the registration of nodes (salient detected objects) across time frames when the data has noise and clutter due to false and missing nodes. First, we introduce a quotient-space representation of graphs that incorporates temporal registration of nodes, and we use that metric structure to impose a dynamical model on graph evolution. Then, we derive a Kalman smoother, adapted to the quotient space geometry, to estimate dense, smooth trajectories of graphs. We demonstrate this framework using simulated data and actual video graphs extracted from the Multiview Extended Video with Activities (MEVA) dataset. This framework successfully estimates graphs despite the noise, clutter, and missed detections. Keywords: motion tracking, graph representations, video graphs, quotient metrics, Kalman smoothing, nonlinear manifolds.

Lei Wang, Piotr Koniusz

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is used for matching pairs of sequences and celebrated in applications such as forecasting the evolution of time series, clustering time series or even matching sequence pairs in few-shot action recognition. The transportation plan of DTW contains a set of paths; each path matches frames between two sequences under a varying degree of time warping, to account for varying temporal intra-class dynamics of actions. However, as DTW is the smallest distance among all paths, it may be affected by the feature uncertainty which varies across time steps/frames. Thus, in this paper, we propose to model the so-called aleatoric uncertainty of a differentiable (soft) version of DTW. To this end, we model the heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty of each path by the product of likelihoods from Normal distributions, each capturing variance of pair of frames. (The path distance is the sum of base distances between features of pairs of frames of the path.) The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) applied to a path yields two terms: (i) a sum of Euclidean distances weighted by the variance inverse, and (ii) a sum of log-variance regularization terms. Thus, our uncertainty-DTW is the smallest weighted path distance among all paths, and the regularization term (penalty for the high uncertainty) is the aggregate of log-variances along the path. The distance and the regularization term can be used in various objectives. We showcase forecasting the evolution of time series, estimating the Fréchet mean of time series, and supervised/unsupervised few-shot action recognition of the articulated human 3D body joints.