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Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Chenguang Wang, Kaiyuan Cui, Weichen Zhao, Tianshu Yu

Sampling from binary quadratic distributions (BQDs) is a fundamental but challenging problem in discrete optimization and probabilistic inference. Previous work established theoretical guarantees for stochastic localization (SL) in continuous domains, where MCMC methods efficiently estimate the required posterior expectations during SL iterations. However, achieving similar convergence guarantees for discrete MCMC samplers in posterior estimation presents unique theoretical challenges. In this work, we present the first application of SL to general BQDs, proving that after a certain number of iterations, the external field of posterior distributions constructed by SL tends to infinity almost everywhere, hence satisfy Poincaré inequalities with probability near to 1, leading to polynomial-time mixing. This theoretical breakthrough enables efficient sampling from general BQDs, even those that may not originally possess fast mixing properties. Furthermore, our analysis, covering enormous discrete MCMC samplers based on Glauber dynamics and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, demonstrates the broad applicability of our theoretical framework.Experiments on instances with quadratic unconstrained binary objectives, including maximum independent set, maximum cut, and maximum clique problems, demonstrate consistent improvements in sampling efficiency across different discrete MCMC samplers.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Idan Achituve, Hai Victor Habi, Amir Rosenfeld, Arnon Netzer, Idit Diamant, Ethan Fetaya

In image processing, solving inverse problems is the task of finding plausible reconstructions of an image that was corrupted by some (usually known) degradation operator. Commonly, this process is done using a generative image model that can guide the reconstruction towards solutions that appear natural. The success of diffusion models over the last few years has made them a leading candidate for this task. However, the sequential nature of diffusion models makes this conditional sampling process challenging. Furthermore, since diffusion models are often defined in the latent space of an autoencoder, the encoder-decoder transformations introduce additional difficulties. To address these challenges, we suggest a novel sampling method based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in the latent space of diffusion models. We name our method LD-SMC. We define a generative model for the data using additional auxiliary observations and perform posterior inference with SMC sampling based on a backward diffusion process. Empirical evaluations on ImageNet and FFHQ show the benefits of LD-SMC over competing methods in various inverse problem tasks and especially in challenging inpainting tasks.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Hugh Dance, Pierre Glaser, Peter Orbanz, Ryan P. Adams

With the advent of automatic vectorization tools (e.g., JAX's vmap), writing multi-chain MCMC algorithms is often now as simple as invoking those tools on single-chain code. Whilst convenient, for various MCMC algorithms this results in a synchronization problem---loosely speaking, at each iteration all chains running in parallel must wait until the last chain has finished drawing its sample. In this work, we show how to design single-chain MCMC algorithms in a way that avoids synchronization overheads when vectorizing with tools like vmap, by using the framework of finite state machines (FSMs). Using a simplified model, we derive an exact theoretical form of the obtainable speed-ups using our approach, and use it to make principled recommendations for optimal algorithm design. We implement several popular MCMC algorithms as FSMs, including Elliptical Slice Sampling, HMC-NUTS, and Delayed Rejection, demonstrating speed-ups of up to an order of magnitude in experiments.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Sophia Hager, Aleem Khan, Andrew Wang, Nicholas Andrews

Most successful applications of deep learning involve similar training and test conditions. However, tasks such as biological sequence design involve searching for sequences that improve desirable properties beyond previously known values, which requires novel hypotheses that \emph{extrapolate} beyond training data. In these settings, extrapolation may be achieved by using random search methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which, given an initial state, sample local transformations to approximate a target density that rewards states with the desired properties. However, even with a well-designed proposal, MCMC may struggle to explore large structured state spaces efficiently. Rather than relying on stochastic search, it would be desirable to have a model that greedily optimizes the properties of interest, successfully extrapolating in as few steps as possible. We propose to learn such a model from the Markov chains resulting from MCMC search. Specifically, our approach uses selected states from Markov chains as a source of training data for an autoregressive model, which is then able to efficiently generate novel sequences that extrapolate along the sequence-level properties of interest. The proposed approach is validated on three problems: protein sequence design, text sentiment control, and text anonymization. We find that the autoregressive model can extrapolate as well or better than MCMC, but with the additional benefits of scalability and significantly higher sample efficiency.

Reinforcement Learning · Planning

Tuan Dam, Kishan Panaganti, Brahim Driss, Adam Wierman

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a powerful framework for solving complex decision-making problems, yet it often relies on the assumption that the simulator and the real-world dynamics are identical. Although this assumption helps achieve the success of MCTS in games like Chess, Go, and Shogi, the real-world scenarios incur ambiguity due to their modeling mismatches in low-fidelity simulators. In this work, we present a new robust variant of MCTS that mitigates dynamical model ambiguities. Our algorithm addresses transition dynamics and reward distribution ambiguities to bridge the gap between simulation-based planning and real-world deployment. We incorporate a robust power mean backup operator and carefully designed exploration bonuses to ensure finite-sample convergence at every node in the search tree. We show that our algorithm achieves a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/2})$ for the value estimation at the root node, comparable to that of standard MCTS. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that our method achieves robust performance in planning problems even under significant ambiguity in the underlying reward distribution and transition dynamics.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Gefan Yang, Frank van der Meulen, Stefan Sommer

We propose a novel method for simulating conditioned diffusion processes (diffusion bridges) in Euclidean spaces. By training a neural network to approximate bridge dynamics, our approach eliminates the need for computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods or reverse-process modeling. Compared to existing methods, it offers greater robustness across various diffusion specifications and conditioning scenarios. This applies in particular to rare events and multimodal distributions, which pose challenges for score-learning- and MCMC-based approaches. We propose a flexible variational family for approximating the diffusion bridge path measure which is partially specified by a neural network. Once trained, it enables efficient independent sampling at a cost comparable to sampling the unconditioned (forward) process.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Denis Blessing, Xiaogang Jia, Gerhard Neumann

Diffusion models optimized via variational inference (VI) have emerged as a promising tool for generating samples from unnormalized target densities. These models create samples by simulating a stochastic differential equation, starting from a simple, tractable prior, typically a Gaussian distribution. However, when the support of this prior differs greatly from that of the target distribution, diffusion models often struggle to explore effectively or suffer from large discretization errors. Moreover, learning the prior distribution can lead to mode-collapse, exacerbated by the mode-seeking nature of reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence commonly used in VI.To address these challenges, we propose end-to-end learnable Gaussian mixture priors (GMPs). GMPs offer improved control over exploration, adaptability to target support, and increased expressiveness to counteract mode collapse. We further leverage the structure of mixture models by proposing a strategy to iteratively refine the model through the addition of mixture components during training. Our experimental results demonstrate significant performance improvements across a diverse range of real-world and synthetic benchmark problems when using GMPs without requiring additional target evaluations.

Applications · Computer Vision

Yuxin Dai, Qi Wang, Jingsen Zhu, xi db, Yuchi Huo, Chen Qian, Ying He

We introduce MIRReS, a novel two-stage inverse rendering framework thatjointly reconstructs and optimizes explicit geometry, materials, and lightingfrom multi-view images. Unlike previous methods that rely on implicit irradiance fields or oversimplified ray tracing, our method begins with an initialstage that extracts an explicit triangular mesh. In the second stage, we refine this representation using a physically-based inverse rendering modelwith multi-bounce path tracing and Monte Carlo integration. This enables our method to accurately estimate indirect illumination effects, including self-shadowing and internal reflections, leading to a more preciseintrinsic decomposition of shape, material, and lighting. To address thenoise issue in Monte Carlo integration, we incorporate reservoir sampling,improving convergence and enabling efficient gradient-based optimizationwith low sample counts. Through both qualitative and quantitative assessments across various scenarios, especially those with complex shadows,we demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art decompositionperformance. Furthermore, our optimized explicit geometry seamlesslyintegrates with modern graphics engines supporting downstream applications such as scene editing, relighting, and material editing.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Shengyu Feng, Xiang Kong, shuang ma, Aonan Zhang, Dong Yin, Chong Wang, Ruoming Pang, Yiming Yang

Augmenting the multi-step reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) has been a persistent challenge. Recently, verification has shown promise in improving solution consistency by evaluating generated outputs. However, current verification approaches suffer from sampling inefficiencies, requiring a large number of samples to achieve satisfactory performance. Additionally, training an effective verifier often depends on extensive process supervision, which is costly to acquire. In this paper, we address these limitations by introducing a novel verification method based on Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TSMC). TSMC sequentially refines its sampling effort to focus exploration on promising candidates, resulting in more efficient generation of high-quality solutions. We apply TSMC to LLMs by estimating the expected future rewards at partial solutions. This approach results in a more straightforward training target that eliminates the need for step-wise human annotations. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of our method across multiple math benchmarks, and also validate our theoretical analysis of both our approach and existing verification methods.

Optimization · Sampling and Optimization

Sebastian Sanokowski, Wilhelm Berghammer, Haoyu Wang, Martin Ennemoser, Sepp Hochreiter, Sebastian Lehner

Learning to sample from complex unnormalized distributions over discrete domains emerged as a promising research direction with applications in statistical physics, variational inference, and combinatorial optimization. Recent work has demonstrated the potential of diffusion models in this domain. However, existing methods face limitations in memory scaling and thus the number of attainable diffusion steps since they require backpropagation through the entire generative process. To overcome these limitations we introduce two novel training methods for discrete diffusion samplers, one grounded in the policy gradient theorem and the other one leveraging Self-Normalized Neural Importance Sampling (SN-NIS). These methods yield memory-efficient training and achieve state-of-the-art results in unsupervised combinatorial optimization.Numerous scientific applications additionally require the ability of unbiased sampling. We introduce adaptations of SN-NIS and Neural Markov Chain Monte Carlo that enable for the first time the application of discrete diffusion models to this problem. We validate our methods on Ising model benchmarks and find that they outperform popular autoregressive approaches. Our work opens new avenues for applying diffusion models to a wide range of scientific applications in discrete domains that were hitherto restricted to exact likelihood models.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Rishal Aggarwal, Daniel Penaherrera, Justin Shao, Minhyek Jeon, David Koes

Training a generative model with energy or unnormalized density functions is considered an important problem for physical systems such as molecules. This provides a path to train generative models to sample from the much desired Boltzmann distribution in situations of data scarcity. As of late, several generative frameworks have been proposed to target this problem. However, as we show in the following blog post, these methods have not been benchmarked sufficiently well against traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that are used to sample from energy functions. We take the example of two recent methods (IDEM and IEFM) and show that MCMC outperforms both methods in terms of number of energy evaluations and wall clock time on established baselines. With this, we suggest a “course correction” on the benchmarking of these models and comment on the utility and potential of generative models on these tasks.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Po-Hung Yeh, Kuang-Huei Lee, Jun-Cheng Chen

Aligning diffusion models with user preferences has been a key challenge.Existing methods for aligning diffusion models either require retraining or are limited to differentiable reward functions.To address these limitations, we propose a stochastic optimization approach, dubbed *Demon*, to guide the denoising process at inference time without backpropagation through reward functions or model retraining.Our approach works by controlling noise distribution in denoising steps to concentrate density on regions corresponding to high rewards through stochastic optimization.We provide comprehensive theoretical and empirical evidence to support and validate our approach, including experiments that use non-differentiable sources of rewards such as Visual-Language Model (VLM) APIs and human judgements.To the best of our knowledge, the proposed approach is the first inference-time, backpropagation-free preference alignment method for diffusion models.Our method can be easily integrated with existing diffusion models without further training.Our experiments show that the proposed approach significantly improves the average aesthetics scores for text-to-image generation. Implementation is available at [this URL](https://github.com/aiiu-lab/DemonSampling).

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Timofei Gritsaev, Nikita Morozov, Sergey Samsonov, Daniil Tiapkin

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are a family of generative models that learn to sample objects with probabilities proportional to a given reward function. The key concept behind GFlowNets is the use of two stochastic policies: a forward policy, which incrementally constructs compositional objects, and a backward policy, which sequentially deconstructs them. Recent results show a close relationship between GFlowNet training and entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (RL) problems with a particular reward design. However, this connection applies only in the setting of a fixed backward policy, which might be a significant limitation. As a remedy to this problem, we introduce a simple backward policy optimization algorithm that involves direct maximization of the value function in an entropy-regularized Markov Decision Process (MDP) over intermediate rewards. We provide an extensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach across various benchmarks in combination with both RL and GFlowNet algorithms and demonstrate its faster convergence and mode discovery in complex environments.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Hengzhuang Li, Teng Zhang

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial for developing trustworthy and reliable machine learning systems. Recent advances in training with auxiliary OOD data demonstrate efficacy in enhancing detection capabilities. Nonetheless, these methods heavily rely on acquiring a large pool of high-quality natural outliers. Some prior methods try to alleviate this problem by synthesizing virtual outliers but suffer from either poor quality or high cost due to the monotonous sampling strategy and the heavy-parameterized generative models. In this paper, we overcome all these problems by proposing the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Outlier Synthesis (HamOS) framework, which views the synthesis process as sampling from Markov chains. Based solely on the in-distribution data, the Markov chains can extensively traverse the feature space and generate diverse and representative outliers, hence exposing the model to miscellaneous potential OOD scenarios. The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with sampling acceptance rate almost close to 1 also makes our framework enjoy great efficiency. By empirically competing with SOTA baselines on both standard and large-scale benchmarks, we verify the efficacy and efficiency of our proposed HamOS.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Lukas Aichberger, Kajetan Schweighofer, Mykyta Ielanskyi, Sepp Hochreiter

Large language models (LLMs) can suffer from hallucinations when generating text. These hallucinations impede various applications in society and industry by making LLMs untrustworthy. Current LLMs generate text in an autoregressive fashion by predicting and appending text tokens. When an LLM is uncertain about the semantic meaning of the next tokens to generate, it is likely to start hallucinating. Thus, it has been suggested that predictive uncertainty is one of the main causes of hallucinations. We introduce Semantically Diverse Language Generation (SDLG) to quantify predictive uncertainty in LLMs. SDLG steers the LLM to generate semantically diverse yet likely alternatives for an initially generated text. This approach provides a precise measure of aleatoric semantic uncertainty, detecting whether the initial text is likely to be hallucinated. Experiments on question-answering tasks demonstrate that SDLG consistently outperforms existing methods while being the most computationally efficient, setting a new standard for uncertainty estimation in LLMs.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Daniel Ward, Mark Beaumont, Matteo Fasiolo

Estimating a distribution given access to its unnormalized density is pivotal in Bayesian inference, where the posterior is generally known only up to an unknown normalizing constant. Variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are the predominant tools for this task; however, both are often challenging to apply reliably, particularly when the posterior has complex geometry. Here, we introduce Soft Contrastive Variational Inference (SoftCVI), which allows a family of variational objectives to be derived through a contrastive estimation framework. The approach parameterizes a classifier in terms of a variational distribution, reframing the inference task as a contrastive estimation problem aiming to identify a single true posterior sample among a set of samples. Despite this framing, we do not require positive or negative samples, but rather learn by sampling the variational distribution and computing ground truth soft classification labels from the unnormalized posterior itself. The objectives have zero variance gradient when the variational approximation is exact, without the need for specialized gradient estimators. We empirically investigate the performance on a variety of Bayesian inference tasks, using both simple (e.g. normal) and expressive (normalizing flow) variational distributions. We find that SoftCVI can be used to form objectives which are stable to train and mass-covering, frequently outperforming inference with other variational approaches.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Maxence Noble, Louis Grenioux, Marylou Gabrié, Alain Oliviero Durmus

Over the past few years, several approaches utilizing score-based diffusion have been proposed to sample from probability distributions, that is without having access to exact samples and relying solely on evaluations of unnormalized densities. The resulting samplers approximate the time-reversal of a noising diffusion process, bridging the target distribution to an easy-to-sample base distribution. In practice, the performance of these methods heavily depends on key hyperparameters that require ground truth samples to be accurately tuned. Our work aims to highlight and address this fundamental issue, focusing in particular on multi-modal distributions, which pose significant challenges for existing sampling methods. Building on existing approaches, we introduce *Learned Reference-based Diffusion Sampler* (LRDS), a methodology specifically designed to leverage prior knowledge on the location of the target modes in order to bypass the obstacle of hyperparameter tuning. LRDS proceeds in two steps by (i) learning a *reference* diffusion model on samples located in high-density space regions and tailored for multimodality, and (ii) using this reference model to foster the training of a diffusion-based sampler. We experimentally demonstrate that LRDS best exploits prior knowledge on the target distribution compared to competing algorithms on a variety of challenging distributions.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Byoungwoo Park, Hyungi Lee, Juho Lee

Many real-world datasets, such as healthcare, climate, and economics, are often collected as irregular time series, which poses challenges for accurate modeling. In this paper, we propose the Amortized Control of continuous State Space Model (ACSSM) for continuous dynamical modeling of time series for irregular and discrete observations. We first present a multi-marginal Doob's $h$-transform to construct a continuous dynamical system conditioned on these irregular observations. Following this, we introduce a variational inference algorithm with a tight evidence lower bound (ELBO), leveraging stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory to approximate the intractable Doob's $h$-transform and simulate the conditioned dynamics. To improve efficiency and scalability during both training and inference, ACSSM leverages auxiliary variable to flexibly parameterize the latent dynamics and amortized control. Additionally, it incorporates a simulation-free latent dynamics framework and a transformer-based data assimilation scheme, facilitating parallel inference of the latent states and ELBO computation. Through empirical evaluations across a variety of real-world datasets, ACSSM demonstrates superior performance in tasks such as classification, regression, interpolation, and extrapolation, while maintaining computational efficiency.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Byoungwoo Park, Hyungi Lee, Juho Lee

Many real-world datasets, such as healthcare, climate, and economics, are often collected as irregular time series, which poses challenges for accurate modeling. In this paper, we propose the Amortized Control of continuous State Space Model (ACSSM) for continuous dynamical modeling of time series for irregular and discrete observations. We first present a multi-marginal Doob's $h$-transform to construct a continuous dynamical system conditioned on these irregular observations. Following this, we introduce a variational inference algorithm with a tight evidence lower bound (ELBO), leveraging stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory to approximate the intractable Doob's $h$-transform and simulate the conditioned dynamics. To improve efficiency and scalability during both training and inference, ACSSM leverages auxiliary variable to flexibly parameterize the latent dynamics and amortized control. Additionally, it incorporates a simulation-free latent dynamics framework and a transformer-based data assimilation scheme, facilitating parallel inference of the latent states and ELBO computation. Through empirical evaluations across a variety of real-world datasets, ACSSM demonstrates superior performance in tasks such as classification, regression, interpolation, and extrapolation, while maintaining computational efficiency.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Emanuel Sommer, Jakob Robnik, Giorgi Nozadze, Uros Seljak, David Rügamer

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption, current state-of-the-art samplers still struggle to navigate the complex and highly multimodal posteriors of BNNs. As a consequence, sampling still requires considerably longer inference times than non-Bayesian methods even for small neural networks, despite recent advances in making software implementations more efficient. Besides the difficulty of finding high-probability regions, the time until samplers provide sufficient exploration of these areas remains unpredictable. To tackle these challenges, we introduce an ensembling approach that leverages strategies from optimization and a recently proposed sampler called Microcanonical Langevin Monte Carlo (MCLMC) for efficient, robust and predictable sampling performance. Compared to approaches based on the state-of-the-art No-U-Turn Sampler, our approach delivers substantial speedups up to an order of magnitude, while maintaining or improving predictive performance and uncertainty quantification across diverse tasks and data modalities. The suggested Microcanonical Langevin Ensembles and modifications to MCLMC additionally enhance the method's predictability in resource requirements, facilitating easier parallelization. All in all, the proposed method offers a promising direction for practical, scalable inference for BNNs.