We present Functional Mean Flow (FMF) as a one-step generative model defined in infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. FMF extends the one-step Mean Flow framework to functional domains by providing a theoretical formulation for Functional Flow Matching and a practical implementation for efficient training and sampling. We also introduce an x_1-prediction variant that improves stability over the original u-prediction form. The resulting framework is a practical one-step Flow Matching method applicable to a wide range of functional data generation tasks such as time series, images, PDEs, and 3D geometry.
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Enhancing Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting in Off-the-Shelf LLMs via Noise Injection Prompting
PDF ↗Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated effectiveness as zero-shot time series (TS) forecasters. While existing work often relies on fine-tuning specialized modules to bridge this gap, a distinct, yet challenging, paradigm aims to leverage truly off-the-shelf LLMs without any fine-tuning whatsoever, relying solely on strategic tokenization of numerical sequences. However, the parameters of these fully frozen models cannot adapt to distribution shifts. Thus, we introduce a novel yet highly effective strategy to overcome this brittleness: injecting noise into the raw TS before tokenization. This non-invasive intervention acts as a form of inference-time augmentation, compelling the frozen LLM to extrapolate based on robust underlying temporal patterns rather than superficial numerical artifacts. We theoretically analyze this phenomenon and empirically validate its effectiveness across diverse benchmarks. Notably, to fully eliminate potential biases from data contamination during LLM pre-training, we introduce multiple novel real-world TS datasets that fall outside all utilized LLMs’ pre-training scopes, and consistently observe improved performance. This study provides a further step in directly leveraging off-the-shelf LLMs for TS forecasting[<https://github.com/jkumh/NLTS>].
Agent for Numerical Data Retrieval and Understanding by Code Generation and Multimodal Reasoning
PDF ↗Numerical data from sensors and time series are widely used in scientific research fields such as nuclear fusion experiments, which generate vast amounts of complex, high-dimensional data. Therefore, efficient numerical data analysis tools are crucial to accelerate experimental research. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as promising solutions to analyze numerical data with natural language queries. However, LLMs have difficulties treating this type of data as they have been designed for text in the first place. To overcome these limitations, we propose a model-agnostic and data-agnostic agent that processes numerical data by code generation and multimodal reasoning. Our agent demonstrates competitive performance against baselines on benchmark data on numerical data tasks such as sensor data classification and time series understanding. While outperforming them on information retrieval benchmarks, also we have successfully applied our agent in the context of nuclear fusion research, where physicists and Tokamak operators interact with it to plan and analyze fusion experiments.
Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently exhibit “contextual disregard” when faced with input evidence that conflicts with their internal parametric memory, leading to persistent factual hallucinations. Existing mitigation strategies primarily rely on suppressing specific neuron activations or employing computationally expensive contrastive decoding mechanisms, which often result in increased perplexity or significantly elevated inference latency. To address these limitations, we propose Resonant Context Anchoring (RCA), a lightweight inference-time intervention method grounded in the perspective of residual stream signal dynamics. RCA aims to resolve the signal attenuation of external evidence during its propagation through deep networks. The core mechanism involves the orthogonal decoupling of routing logic and information magnitude within the self-attention module. By utilizing raw pre-softmax attention scores as an instantaneous metric of semantic alignment, we construct a dynamic gain field via non-linear rectification to selectively amplify the norms of value vectors corresponding to context tokens, without altering the attention probability distribution. This mechanism effectively elevates the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of input evidence within the residual stream mixture, thereby robustly anchoring the generation trajectory to the truthful context during inference. Extensive experiments on the Llama-3 model series demonstrate that RCA significantly improves contextual faithfulness across multiple factual consistency and strong knowledge-conflict tasks, effectively suppressing parametric hallucinations. Furthermore, results confirm that as a training-free and computationally negligible plug-and-play module, RCA achieves a Pareto improvement in faithfulness and fluency while maintaining the model’s general language understanding capabilities. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/RCA-Implementation-D8B5
Recent automated transcription systems have focused on end-to-end orthographic approaches driven by deep neural networks and sequence-to-sequence transformers. Growing public interest in transcription at the phonemic or phonetic level has led to re-purposing these systems to segment and identify phones, the basic sounds which comprise human speech. However, they miss the mark on a fundamental component of time-series analysis, namely time. For linguistic applications which require high fidelity in the temporal domain, the loss of timing information is untenable. Our work proposes a deadline-bounded expectation maximization (EM) algorithm with a novel initialization method to estimate formants, i.e., salient speech frequencies, for enhanced phonetic segmentation. Based on the concept of spectral gravity, i.e., treating spectral energy as mass attenuated by the square of frequency distance across the spectrum, our technique outperforms the recent state of the art on key clustering metrics, generating reasonable alignments across multiple languages with no a priori training.
Uncovering hidden symbolic laws from time series data, as an aspiration dating back to Kepler’s discovery of planetary motion, remains a core challenge in scientific discovery and artificial intelligence. While Large Language Models show promise in structured reasoning tasks, their ability to infer interpretable, context-aligned symbolic structures from time series data is still underexplored. To systematically evaluate this capability, we introduce SymbolBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess symbolic reasoning over real-world time series across three tasks: multivariate symbolic regression, Boolean network inference, and causal discovery. Unlike prior efforts limited to simple algebraic equations, SymbolBench spans a diverse set of symbolic forms with varying complexity. We further propose a unified framework that integrates LLMs with genetic programming to form a closed-loop symbolic reasoning system. Our empirical results reveal key strengths and limitations of current models, highlighting the importance of combining domain knowledge, context alignment, and reasoning structure to improve LLMs in automated scientific discovery.
Time series captioning, the task of describing time series in natural language, requires numeric and temporal reasoning, trend interpretation, and contextual understanding. Existing benchmarks, however, often rely on fully synthetic or generic captions, and typically neglect metadata and visual representations. We introduce CaTS-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark for Context-aware Time Series reasoning across 11 diverse domains, centered on a gold-standard evaluation set of 1746 human-rewritten captions that measure how effectively models translate numeric trends into immediately interpretable narratives. To address the scarcity of human-annotated data, we also propose a scalable pipeline for generating high-fidelity synthetic captions, the quality of which we validate. We evaluate leading Vision-Language Models on our benchmark, revealing that even proprietary models struggle to capture numeric nuances in temporal descriptions, while finetuning open-source models on synthetic data yields substantial performance gains. Finally, we release a diagnostic suite of 910 multiple-choice questions and use tailored numeric metrics to gauge time-series-specific reasoning capabilities, establishing CaTS-Bench as a reliable foundation for grounded, multimodal text generation in numeric domains.
LLaTiSA: Towards Difficulty-Stratified Time Series Reasoning from Visual Perception to Semantics
PDF ↗Comprehensive understanding of time series remains a significant challenge for Large Language Models (LLMs). Current research is hindered by fragmented task definitions and benchmarks with inherent ambiguities, precluding rigorous evaluation and the development of unified Time Series Reasoning Models (TSRMs). To bridge this gap, we formalize Time Series Reasoning (TSR) via a four-level taxonomy of increasing cognitive complexity. We introduce HiTSR, a **hi**erarchical **t**ime **s**eries **r**easoning dataset comprising 83k samples with diverse task combinations and verified Chain-of-Thought (CoT) trajectories. Leveraging HiTSR, we propose LLaTiSA, a strong TSRM that integrates visualized patterns with precision-calibrated numerical tables to enhance the temporal perception of Vision-Language Models (VLMs). Through a multi-stage curriculum fine-tuning strategy, LLaTiSA achieves superior performance and exhibits robust out-of-distribution generalization across diverse TSR tasks and real-world scenarios. We will publicly release the code, dataset, and model weights.
Accurate and interpretable predictions of depression severity are essential for clinical decision support, yet existing models often lack uncertainty estimates and temporal interpretability. We propose PTTSD, a Probabilistic framework for Depression Detection from clinical interview utterance sequences that predicts PHQ-8 scores while modeling calibrated uncertainty. PTTSD includes sequence-to-sequence and sequence-to-one variants, both combining LSTMs, self-attention, and residual connections with Gaussian or Student’s-t output heads trained via negative log-likelihood. The sequence-to-sequence variant enables temporal analysis of how predictive confidence evolves over an interview, despite the target being a single session-level score. Evaluated on E-DAIC and DAIC-WOZ, PTTSD achieves competitive performance among text-only systems (e.g., MAE = 3.85 on E-DAIC, 3.55 on DAIC) and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals. Ablations confirm the value of attention and probabilistic modeling, while a three-part calibration analysis and qualitative case studies highlight the clinical relevance of uncertainty-aware prediction.
Test-Time Scaling (TTS) has emerged as an effective paradigm for improving the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods — most notably majority voting and heuristic token-level scoring — treat reasoning traces or tokens equally, thereby being susceptible to substantial variations in trajectory quality and localized logical failures. In this work, we introduce **Chronos**, a lightweight and plug-and-play chronological reasoning scorer that models each trajectory as a time series. Specifically, Chronos learns to capture trajectory features of token probabilities, assigns quality scores accordingly, and employs a weighted voting mechanism. Extensive evaluations on both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks demonstrate that Chronos consistently delivers substantial gains across a variety of models, with negligible computational overhead. Notably, Chronos@128 achieves relative improvements of 34.21% over Pass@1 and 22.70% over Maj@128 on HMMT25 using Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507, highlighting its effectiveness.
Learning Dynamic Representations and Policies from Multimodal Clinical Time-Series with Informative Missingness
PDF ↗Multimodal clinical records contain structured measurements and clinical notes recorded over time, offering rich temporal information about the evolution of patient health. Yet these observations are sparse, and whether they are recorded depends on the patient’s latent condition. Observation patterns also differ across modalities, as structured measurements and clinical notes arise under distinct recording processes. While prior work has developed methods that accommodate missingness in clinical time series, how to extract and use the information carried by the observation process itself remains underexplored. We therefore propose a patient representation learning framework for multimodal clinical time series that explicitly leverages informative missingness. The framework combines (1) a multimodal encoder that captures signals from structured and textual data together with their observation patterns, (2) a Bayesian filtering module that updates a latent patient state over time from observed multimodal signals, and (3) downstream modules for offline treatment policy learning and patient outcome prediction based on the learned patient state. We evaluate the framework on ICU sepsis cohorts from MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and eICU. It improves both offline treatment policy learning and adverse outcome prediction, achieving FQE 0.679 versus 0.528 for clinician behavior and AUROC 0.886 for post-72-hour mortality prediction on MIMIC-III.
VecCISC: Improving Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency with Reasoning Trace Clustering and Candidate Answer Selection
PDF ↗A standard technique for scaling inference-time reasoning is Self-Consistency, whereby multiple candidate answers are sampled from an LLM and the most common answer is selected. More recently, it has been shown that weighted majority voting (e.g. Confidence-Informed Self Consistency (CISC)), which assigns a confidence value to each candidate answer and chooses the answer with the largest accumulated score, tends to be more accurate on a wide range of popular benchmarks. In practice, weighted majority voting necessitates calling a critic LLM on each candidate’s reasoning trace to produce the answer’s confidence score. This secondary series of LLM calls greatly increases the overhead and cost of weighted majority voting, despite its potential performance benefits. To reduce this expense, we propose VecCISC, a lightweight, adaptive framework that uses a measure of semantic similarity to filter reasoning traces that are semantically equivalent to others, degenerate, or hallucinated, thus decreasing the number of candidate answers that must be evaluated by the critic. To ensure adequate experimental thoroughness, we evaluated VecCISC on five challenging, widely-adopted datasets spanning the domains of mathematics, chemistry, biology, commonsense reasoning, and the humanities. Our results demonstrate that VecCISC reduces the total token usage by 47%, while maintaining or exceeding the accuracy of CISC.
Time series forecasting underpins critical decision-making across diverse domains. While large language models (LLMs) offer promising reasoning capabilities, existing LLM-based time series forecasting approaches either reduce them to numerical predictors that bypass their strengths, or allow direct forecast generation that destabilizes predictions in non-stationary settings. We introduce CTRL, a framework that decouples semantic reasoning from quantitative prediction. A frozen backbone generates base forecasts, while specialized LLM agents function as controllers that analyze backbone prediction errors through decomposed trend, seasonal, and irregular components, grounding reasoning in interpretable temporal structure. Each agent outputs compact control signals that a lightweight residual decoder translates into forecast corrections. CTRL incorporates label-free test-time adaptation that detects distribution shift from input statistics alone and readapts control signals with only 3–24 LLM calls via caching. CTRL is explicitly designed to improve robustness under non-stationary temporal dynamics and distribution shift, while remaining competitive on highly stationary time series where adaptive correction provides limited additional benefit.
Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has traditionally focused on binary classification and often lacks the fine-grained categorization and explanatory reasoning required for transparent decision-making. To address these limitations, we propose Time-series Reasoning for Anomaly (Time-RA), a novel task that reformulates TSAD from a discriminative into a generative, reasoning-intensive paradigm. To facilitate this, we introduce RATs40K, the first real-world large-scale multimodal benchmark with ~40,000 samples across 10 domains, integrating raw time series, textual context, and visual plots with structured reasoning annotations. Extensive benchmarking shows that while supervised fine-tuning and visual representations boost diagnostic accuracy and reasoning consistency, performance varies across complex scenarios. Notably, fine-tuned models demonstrate strong "plug-and-play" transferability, outperforming traditional baselines on unseen real-world datasets. Our work establishes a foundation for interpretable, multimodal time series analysis. All code and the RATs40K dataset are fully open-sourced to facilitate future research.
Reward models (RMs) play a critical role in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Yet in the domain of tool learning, the lack of RMs specifically designed for function-calling tasks has limited progress toward more capable agentic AI. We introduce ToolRM, a family of lightweight reward models tailored for general tool-use scenarios. To build these models, we propose a novel pipeline that constructs high-quality pairwise preference data using rule-based scoring and multidimensional sampling. This yields ToolPref-Pairwise-30K, a diverse, balanced, and challenging preference dataset that supports both generative and discriminative reward modeling. We also introduce TRBench_{BFCL}, a benchmark built on the agent evaluation suite BFCL to evaluate RMs on tool calling tasks. Trained on our constructed data, models from the Qwen3-4B/8B series achieve up to 17.94% higher accuracy, substantially outperforming frontier LLMs and RMs in pairwise reward judgments. Beyond training objectives, generative ToolRM generalizes to broader critique tasks, including Best-of-N sampling and self-correction. Experiments on ACEBench highlight its effectiveness and efficiency, enabling inference-time scaling while reducing output token usage by over 66%. Its support for downstream RL training further validates its practical utility. We release data to facilitate future research.
A line of work in planning uses LLM not to generate a plan, but to generate a formal representation in some planning language, which can be input into a symbolic solver to deterministically find a plan. While showing improved trust and promising performance, dozens of recent publications have proposed scattered methods on a variety of benchmarks under different experimental settings. We attempt to unify the inference-time LLM-as-formalizer methodology for classical planning by proposing a unifying organizational framework based on intermediate representations. We thus systematically evaluate more than a dozen pipelines that subsume most existing work, while proposing novel ones that involve syntactically similar but high-resource intermediate languages (such as a Python wrapper of PDDL). We provide recipes for planning language generation pipelines, draw a series of conclusions showing the efficacy of their various components, and evidence their robustness against problem complexity.
ODTQA-FoRe: An Open-Domain Tabular Question Answering Dataset for Future Data Forecasting and Reasoning
PDF ↗The rapid development of LLMs has significantly advanced tabular question answering, but most systems cannot perform future-oriented numerical prediction. To address this gap, we introduce a novel task, Open-Domain Tabular Question Answering for Future Data Forecasting and Reasoning, and propose the first dataset to cover time-series forecasting and forecast-based reasoning scenarios using real estate data. This task poses challenges in retrieving precise historical data, overcoming the forecasting limitations of LLMs, and standardizing responses for diverse queries. To solve the above challenges, we propose TimeFore, an LLM agent-based framework that decomposes the problem into three collaborative roles: a Retriever autonomously generates SQL to fetch data, a Forecaster invokes external time-series models for higher accuracy, and an Analyzer synthesizes the results to construct a precise and consistent final answer. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our TimeFore.
The Retentive Network (RetNet) has recently emerged as a formidable successor to the Transformer architecture. Although the self-attention mechanism excels at capturing global dependencies, its inherent quadratic complexity imposes significant memory constraints and inhibits scalability during long-sequence modeling. To overcome these challenges, RetNet introduces an innovative retention mechanism that integrates the inductive bias of recurrent neural networks with the parallelizable training advantages of attention-based models. This unified representation allows RetNet to achieve constant-time inference and linear-time training without sacrificing representational capacity. Despite the growing body of research demonstrating the efficacy of RetNet across diverse fields such as natural language processing, computer vision, and time-series analysis, a systematic synthesis of the current literature is currently unavailable. This paper presents the first comprehensive survey of Retentive Networks through a detailed examination of its architectural foundations, core innovations, and specialized variants. Furthermore, we provide a multi-disciplinary analysis of its applications ranging from basic sequence tasks to complex cross-modal scenarios. Finally, we offer prospective insights and suggest strategic avenues for future inquiry to facilitate the continued evolution of RetNet in both academic research and large-scale industrial applications.
Accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs) has been a critical challenge in generative AI. Speculative decoding (SD) substantially improves LLM inference efficiency. However, its utility is limited by a fundamental constraint: the draft and target models must share the same vocabulary, thus limiting the herd of available draft models and often necessitating the training of a new model from scratch. Inspired by Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), a classic algorithm for aligning time series, we propose the algorithm TokenTiming for universal speculative decoding. It operates by re-encoding the draft token sequence to get a new target token sequence, and then uses DTW to build a mapping to transfer the probability distributions for speculative sampling. Benefiting from this, our method accommodates mismatched vocabularies and works with any off-the-shelf models without retraining and modification. We conduct comprehensive experiments on various tasks, demonstrating 1.57x speedup. This work enables a universal approach for draft model selection, making SD a more versatile and practical tool for LLM acceleration.
Despite the recent success of large language models (LLMs) in time-series forecasting, most existing methods still adopt a Deep Synchronous Fusion strategy, where dense interactions between textual and temporal features are enforced at every layer of the network. This design overlooks the inherent granularity mismatch between modalities and leads to what we term semantic perceptual dissonance: high-level abstract semantics provided by the LLM become inappropriately entangled with the low-level, fine-grained numerical dynamics of time series, making it difficult for semantic priors to effectively guide forecasting. To address this issue, we propose TimeSAF, a new framework based on hierarchical asynchronous fusion. Unlike synchronous approaches, TimeSAF explicitly decouples unimodal feature learning from cross-modal interaction. It introduces an independent cross-modal semantic fusion trunk, which uses learnable queries to aggregate global semantics from the temporal and prompt backbones in a bottom-up manner, and a stage-wise semantic refinement decoder that asynchronously injects these high-level signals back into the temporal backbone. This mechanism provides stable and efficient semantic guidance while avoiding interference with low-level temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments on standard long-term forecasting benchmarks show that TimeSAF significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, and further exhibits strong generalization in both few-shot and zero-shot transfer settings.