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Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Maksim Sinelnikov, Manuel Haussmann, Harri Lähdesmäki

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness patterns, and measurement time points can be governed by an unknown stochastic process. While various solutions have been suggested, the majority of them have been designed to account for only one of these challenges. In this work, we propose a flexible and efficient latent-variable model that is capable of addressing all these limitations. Our approach utilizes Gaussian processes to capture correlations between samples and their associated missingness masks as well as to model the underlying point process. We construct our model as a variational autoencoder together with deep neural network parameterised decoder and encoder models, and develop a scalable amortised variational inference approach for efficient model training. We demonstrate competitive performance using both simulated and real datasets.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Shubhanshu Shekhar, Aaditya Ramdas

We consider the problem of sequential change detection under minimal assumptions on the distribution generating the stream of observations. Formally, our goal is to design a scheme for detecting any changes in a parameter or functional $\theta$ of the data stream distribution that has small detection delay, but guarantees control on the frequency of false alarms in the absence of changes. We describe a simple reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences (CSs): begin a new level-$(1-\alpha)$ CS at each time step, and proclaim a change as soon as the intersection of all active CSs becomes empty. We prove that the average run length of our scheme is at least $1/\alpha$, resulting in a change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions (thus allowing for possibly dependent observations, and nonparametric distribution classes), but strong guarantees. We also describe an interesting parallel with Lorden's reduction from change detection to sequential testing and connections to the recent ''e-detector'' framework.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Weijieying Ren, Xiaoting Li, Huiyuan Chen, Vineeth Rakesh, Zhuoyi Wang, Mahashweta Das, Vasant Honavar

We consider the problem of test-time adaptation of predictive models trained on tabular data. Effective solution of this problem requires adaptation of predictive models trained on the source domain to a target domain, using only unlabeled target domain data, without access to source domain data. Existing test-time adaptation methods for tabular data have difficulty coping with the heterogeneous features and their complex dependencies inherent in tabular data. To overcome these limitations, we consider test-time adaptation in the setting wherein the logical structure of the rules is assumed to remain invariant despite distribution shift between source and target domains whereas the numerical parameters associated with the rules and the weights assigned to them can vary to accommodate distribution shift. TabLog discretizes numerical features, models dependencies between heterogeneous features, introduces a novel contrastive loss for coping with distribution shift, and presents an end-to-end framework for efficient training and test-time adaptation by taking advantage of a logical neural network representation of a rule ensemble. We present results of experiments using several benchmark data sets that demonstrate TabLog is competitive with or improves upon the state-of-the-art methods for test-time adaptation of predictive models trained on tabular data. Our code is available at https://github.com/WeijieyingRen/TabLog.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Rom N. Parnichkun, Stefano Massaroli, Alessandro Moro, Jimmy Smith, Ramin Hasani, Mathias Lechner, Qi An, Christopher Re, Hajime Asama, Stefano Ermon 等

We approach designing a state-space model for deep learning applications through its dual representation, the *transfer function*, and uncover a highly efficient sequence parallel inference algorithm that is *state-free*: unlike other proposed algorithms, state-free inference does not incur any significant memory or computational cost with an increase in state size. We achieve this using properties of the proposed frequency domain transfer function parametrization, which enables direct computation of its corresponding convolutional kernel's spectrum via a single Fast Fourier Transform. Our experimental results across multiple sequence lengths and state sizes illustrates, on average, a 35% training speed improvement over S4 layers -- parametrized in time-domain -- on the Long Range Arena benchmark, while delivering state-of-the-art downstream performances over other attention-free approaches. Moreover, we report improved perplexity in language modeling over a long convolutional Hyena baseline, by simply introducing our transfer function parametrization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruke1ire/RTF.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

William Merrill, Jackson Petty, Ashish Sabharwal

State-space models (SSMs) have emerged as a potential alternative architecture for building large language models (LLMs) compared to the previously ubiquitous transformer architecture. One theoretical weakness of transformers is that they cannot express certain kinds of sequential computation and state tracking (Merrill & Sabharwal, 2023), which SSMs are explicitly designed to address via their close architectural similarity to recurrent neural networks (RNNs). *But do SSMs truly have an advantage (over transformers) in expressive power for state tracking?* Surprisingly, the answer is no. Our analysis reveals that the expressive power of SSMs is limited very similarly to transformers: SSMs cannot express computation outside the complexity class $\mathsf{TC}^0$. In particular, this means they cannot solve simple state-tracking problems like permutation composition. It follows that SSMs are provably unable to accurately track chess moves with certain notation, evaluate code, or track entities in a long narrative. To supplement our formal analysis, we report experiments showing that Mamba-style SSMs indeed struggle with state tracking. Thus, despite its recurrent formulation, the "state'' in an SSM is an illusion: SSMs have similar expressiveness limitations to non-recurrent models like transformers, which may fundamentally limit their ability to solve real-world state-tracking problems.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ivan Marisca, Cesare Alippi, Filippo Maria Bianchi

Given a set of synchronous time series, each associated with a sensor-point in space and characterized by inter-series relationships, the problem of spatiotemporal forecasting consists of predicting future observations for each point. Spatiotemporal graph neural networks achieve striking results by representing the relationships across time series as a graph. Nonetheless, most existing methods rely on the often unrealistic assumption that inputs are always available and fail to capture hidden spatiotemporal dynamics when part of the data is missing. In this work, we tackle this problem through hierarchical spatiotemporal downsampling. The input time series are progressively coarsened over time and space, obtaining a pool of representations that capture heterogeneous temporal and spatial dynamics. Conditioned on observations and missing data patterns, such representations are combined by an interpretable attention mechanism to generate the forecasts. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world benchmarks under different missing data distributions, particularly in the presence of contiguous blocks of missing values.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Maude Lizaire, Michael Rizvi-Martel, Marawan Gamal, Guillaume Rabusseau

Second-order Recurrent Neural Networks (2RNNs) extend RNNs by leveraging second-order interactions for sequence modelling. These models are provably more expressive than their first-order counterparts and have connections to well-studied models from formal language theory. However, their large parameter tensor makes computations intractable. To circumvent this issue, one approach known as MIRNN consists in limiting the type of interactions used by the model. Another is to leverage tensor decomposition to diminish the parameter count. In this work, we study the model resulting from parameterizing 2RNNs using the CP decomposition, which we call CPRNN. Intuitively, the rank of the decomposition should reduce expressivity. We analyze how rank and hidden size affect model capacity and show the relationships between RNNs, 2RNNs, MIRNNs, and CPRNNs based on these parameters. We support these results empirically with experiments on the Penn Treebank dataset which demonstrate that, with a fixed parameter budget, CPRNNs outperforms RNNs, 2RNNs, and MIRNNs with the right choice of rank and hidden size.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yong Liu, Haoran Zhang, Chenyu Li, Xiangdong Huang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world data-scarce scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progress has been achieved with the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented abilities such as few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which are however absent in small deep models. To change the status quo of training scenario-specific small models from scratch, this paper aims at the early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), which is generative pre-trained by next token prediction and adapted to various downstream tasks with promising capabilities as an LTSM. Code and datasets are available at: https://github.com/thuml/Large-Time-Series-Model.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yongtuo Liu, Sara Magliacane, Miltiadis (Miltos) Kofinas, Efstratios Gavves

Hybrid dynamical systems are prevalent in science and engineering to express complex systems with continuous and discrete states. To learn laws of systems, all previous methods for equation discovery in hybrid systems follow a two-stage paradigm, i.e. they first group time series into small cluster fragments and then discover equations in each fragment separately through methods in non-hybrid systems. Although effective, performance is then limited because these methods ignore the commonalities in the shared dynamics of fragments that are driven by the same equations. Besides, the two-stage paradigm breaks the interdependence between categorizing and representing dynamics that jointly form hybrid systems. In this paper, we reformulate the problem and propose an end-to-end learning framework, i.e. Amortized Equation Discovery (AMORE), to jointly categorize modes and discover equations characterizing motion dynamics of each mode by all segments of the mode. Experiments on four hybrid and six non-hybrid systems demonstrate the superior performance of our method against previous methods on equation discovery, segmentation, and forecasting.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Fusheng Liu, Qianxiao Li

A State Space Model (SSM) is a foundation model in time series analysis, which has recently been shown as an alternative to transformers in sequence modeling. In this paper, we theoretically study the generalization of SSMs and propose improvements to training algorithms based on the generalization results. Specifically, we give a *data-dependent* generalization bound for SSMs, showing an interplay between the SSM parameters and the temporal dependencies of the training sequences. Leveraging the generalization bound, we (1) set up a scaling rule for model initialization based on the proposed generalization measure, which significantly improves the robustness of the output value scales on SSMs to different temporal patterns in the sequence data; (2) introduce a new regularization method for training SSMs to enhance the generalization performance. Numerical results are conducted to validate our results.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Zichong Li, Qunzhi Xu, Zhenghao Xu, Yajun Mei, Tuo Zhao, Hongyuan Zha

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) are potent mathematical tools for modeling and predicting events with both temporal and spatial features. Despite their versatility, most existing methods for learning STPPs either assume a restricted form of the spatio-temporal distribution, or suffer from inaccurate approximations of the intractable integral in the likelihood training objective. These issues typically arise from the normalization term of the probability density function. Moreover, existing works only provide point prediction for events without quantifying their uncertainty, such as confidence intervals for the event's arrival time and confidence regions for the event's location, which is crucial given the considerable randomness of the data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce SMASH: a Score MAtching-based pSeudolikeliHood estimator for learning marked STPPs. Specifically, our framework adopts a normalization-free objective by estimating the pseudolikelihood of marked STPPs through score-matching and predicts confidence intervals/regions for event time and location by generating samples through a score-based sampling algorithm. The superior performance of our proposed framework is demonstrated through extensive experiments on both point and confidence interval/region prediction of events.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Jae-Hong Lee, Joon Hyuk Chang

In the rapidly evolving field of online test-time adaptation (OTTA), effectively managing distribution shifts is a pivotal concern. State-of-the-art OTTA methodologies often face limitations such as an inadequate target domain information integration, leading to significant issues like catastrophic forgetting and a lack of adaptability in dynamically changing environments. In this paper, we introduce a stationary latent weight inference (SLWI) framework, a novel approach to overcome these challenges. The proposed SLWI uniquely incorporates Bayesian filtering to continually track and update the target model weights along with the source model weight in online settings, thereby ensuring that the adapted model remains responsive to ongoing changes in the target domain. The proposed framework has the peculiar property to identify and backtrack nonlinear weights that exhibit local non-stationarity, thereby mitigating error propagation, a common pitfall of previous approaches. By integrating and refining information from both source and target domains, SLWI presents a robust solution to the persistent issue of domain adaptation in OTTA, significantly improving existing methodologies. The efficacy of SLWI is demonstrated through various experimental setups, showcasing its superior performance in diverse distribution shift scenarios.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ming Jin, Yi-Fan Zhang, Wei Chen, Kexin Zhang, Yuxuan Liang, Bin Yang, Jindong Wang, Shirui Pan, Qingsong Wen

Time series analysis is essential for comprehending the complexities inherent in various real-world systems and applications. Although large language models (LLMs) have recently made significant strides, the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) equipped with time series analysis capabilities remains in its nascent phase. Most existing time series models heavily rely on domain knowledge and extensive model tuning, predominantly focusing on prediction tasks. In this paper, we argue that current LLMs have the potential to revolutionize time series analysis, thereby promoting efficient decision-making and advancing towards a more universal form of time series analytical intelligence. Such advancement could unlock a wide range of possibilities, including time series modality switching and question answering. We encourage researchers and practitioners to recognize the potential of LLMs in advancing time series analysis and emphasize the need for trust in these related efforts. Furthermore, we detail the seamless integration of time series analysis with existing LLM technologies and outline promising avenues for future research.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ignacio Hounie, Javier Porras-Valenzuela, Alejandro Ribeiro

Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising performance averaged over the predicted window. We observe that this can lead to disparate distributions of errors across forecasting steps, especially for recent transformer architectures trained on popular forecasting benchmarks. That is, optimising performance on average can lead to undesirably large errors at specific time-steps. In this work, we present a Constrained Learning approach for long-term time series forecasting that aims to find the best model in terms of average performance that respects a user-defined upper bound on the loss at each time-step. We call our approach loss shaping constraints because it imposes constraints on the loss at each time step, and leverage recent duality results to show that despite its non-convexity, the resulting problem has a bounded duality gap. We propose a practical primal-dual algorithm to tackle it, and demonstrate that the proposed approach exhibits competitive average performance in time series forecasting benchmarks, while shaping the distribution of errors across the predicted window.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Deividas Eringis, john leth, Zheng-Hua Tan, Rafal Wisniewski, Mihaly Petreczky

In this paper we derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for a class of stochastic dynamical systems with inputs, namely, for linear time-invariant stochastic state-space models (stochastic LTI systems for short). This class of systems is widely used in control engineering and econometrics, in particular, they represent a special case of recurrent neural networks. In this paper we 1) formalize the learning problem for stochastic LTI systems with inputs, 2) derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for such systems, and 3) discuss various consequences of this error bound.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Jiayi Deng, Xiaodong Yang, Jun Yu, Jun Liu, Zhaiming Shen, Danyang Huang, Huimin Cheng

Conventional community detection methods often categorize all nodes into clusters. However, the presumed community structure of interest may only be valid for a subset of nodes (named as `tight nodes'), while the rest of the network may consist of noninformative ``scattered nodes''. For example, a protein-protein network often contains proteins that do not belong to specific biological functional modules but are involved in more general processes, or act as bridges between different functional modules. Forcing each of these proteins into a single cluster introduces unwanted biases and obscures the underlying biological implication. To address this issue, we propose a tight community detection (TCD) method to identify tight communities excluding scattered nodes. The algorithm enjoys a strong theoretical guarantee of tight node identification accuracy and is scalable for large networks. The superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated by various synthetic and real experiments.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Serina Chang, Frederic Koehler, Zhaonan Qu, Jure Leskovec, Johan Ugander

A common network inference problem, arising from real-world data constraints, is how to infer a dynamic network from its time-aggregated adjacency matrix and time-varying marginals (i.e., row and column sums). Prior approaches to this problem have repurposed the classic iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure, also known as Sinkhorn’s algorithm, with promising empirical results. However, the statistical foundation for using IPF has not been well understood: under what settings does IPF provide principled estimation of a dynamic network from its marginals, and how well does it estimate the network? In this work, we establish such a setting, by identifying a generative network model whose maximum likelihood estimates are recovered by IPF. Our model both reveals implicit assumptions on the use of IPF in such settings and enables new analyses, such as structure-dependent error bounds on IPF’s parameter estimates. When IPF fails to converge on sparse network data, we introduce a principled algorithm that guarantees IPF converges under minimal changes to the network structure. Finally, we conduct experiments with synthetic and real-world data, which demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical and algorithmic contributions.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Yongqiang Cai

In recent years, deep learning-based sequence modelings, such as language models, have received much attention and success, which pushes researchers to explore the possibility of transforming non-sequential problems into a sequential form. Following this thought, deep neural networks can be represented as composite functions of a sequence of mappings, linear or nonlinear, where each composition can be viewed as a word. However, the weights of linear mappings are undetermined and hence require an infinite number of words. In this article, we investigate the finite case and constructively prove the existence of a finite vocabulary $V$=$\phi_i: \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}^d | i=1,...,n$ with $n=O(d^2)$ for the universal approximation. That is, for any continuous mapping $f: \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}^d$, compact domain $\Omega$ and $\varepsilon>0$, there is a sequence of mappings $\phi_{i_1}, ..., \phi_{i_m} \in V, m \in \mathbb{Z}^+$, such that the composition $\phi_{i_m} \circ ... \circ \phi_{i_1} $ approximates $f$ on $\Omega$ with an error less than $\varepsilon$. Our results demonstrate an unusual approximation power of mapping compositions and motivate a novel compositional model for regular languages.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Carles Balsells-Rodas, Yixin Wang, Yingzhen Li

The identifiability of latent variable models has received increasing attention due to its relevance in interpretability and out-of-distribution generalisation. In this work, we study the identifiability of Switching Dynamical Systems, taking an initial step toward extending identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models. We first prove the identifiability of Markov Switching Models, which commonly serve as the prior distribution for the continuous latent variables in Switching Dynamical Systems. We present identification conditions for first-order Markov dependency structures, whose transition distribution is parametrised via non-linear Gaussians. We then establish the identifiability of the latent variables and non-linear mappings in Switching Dynamical Systems up to affine transformations, by leveraging identifiability analysis techniques from identifiable deep latent variable models. We finally develop estimation algorithms for identifiable Switching Dynamical Systems. Throughout empirical studies, we demonstrate the practicality of identifiable Switching Dynamical Systems for segmenting high-dimensional time series such as videos, and showcase the use of identifiable Markov Switching Models for regime-dependent causal discovery in climate data.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Representation Learning

Nimrod Berman, Ilan Naiman, Idan Arbiv, Gal Fadlon, Omri Azencot

One of the fundamental representation learning tasks is unsupervised sequential disentanglement, where latent codes of inputs are decomposed to a single static factor and a sequence of dynamic factors. To extract this latent information, existing methods condition the static and dynamic codes on the entire input sequence. Unfortunately, these models often suffer from information leakage, i.e., the dynamic vectors encode both static and dynamic information, or vice versa, leading to a non-disentangled representation. Attempts to alleviate this problem via reducing the dynamic dimension and auxiliary loss terms gain only partial success. Instead, we propose a novel and simple architecture that mitigates information leakage by offering a simple and effective subtraction inductive bias while conditioning on a single sample. Remarkably, the resulting variational framework is simpler in terms of required loss terms, hyper-parameters, and data augmentation. We evaluate our method on multiple data-modality benchmarks including general time series, video, and audio, and we show beyond state-of-the-art results on generation and prediction tasks in comparison to several strong baselines.