论文检索

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Siqiao Xue, Yan Wang, Zhixuan Chu, Xiaoming Shi, Caigao JIANG, Hongyan Hao, Gangwei Jiang, Xiaoyun Feng, James Zhang, Jun Zhou

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real world applications, the event data typically comes in a streaming manner, where the distribution of the patterns may shift over time. Under the privacy and memory constraints commonly seen in real scenarios, how to continuously monitor a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-investigated problem. In this work, we approach this problem by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which aims to enable a model to continuously learn a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting. While CL for event sequence is less well studied, we present a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPP, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. In our proposed framework, prompts are small learnable parameters, maintained in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP so that the model is properly instructed to learn event streams arriving sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We formalize a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently sets state-of-the-art performance across two real user behavior datasets.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Shida Wang, Beichen Xue

State-space models have gained popularity in sequence modelling due to their simple and efficient network structures. However, the absence of nonlinear activation along the temporal direction limits the model's capacity. In this paper, we prove that stacking state-space models with layer-wise nonlinear activation is sufficient to approximate any continuous sequence-to-sequence relationship. Our findings demonstrate that the addition of layer-wise nonlinear activation enhances the model's capacity to learn complex sequence patterns. Meanwhile, it can be seen both theoretically and empirically that the state-space models do not fundamentally resolve the issue of exponential decaying memory. Theoretical results are justified by numerical verifications.

Deep Learning/Recurrent Networks

Lukas Eisenmann, Zahra Monfared, Niclas Göring, Daniel Durstewitz

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are popular machine learning tools for modeling and forecasting sequential data and for inferring dynamical systems (DS) from observed time series. Concepts from DS theory (DST) have variously been used to further our understanding of both, how trained RNNs solve complex tasks, and the training process itself. Bifurcations are particularly important phenomena in DS, including RNNs, that refer to topological (qualitative) changes in a system's dynamical behavior as one or more of its parameters are varied. Knowing the bifurcation structure of an RNN will thus allow to deduce many of its computational and dynamical properties, like its sensitivity to parameter variations or its behavior during training. In particular, bifurcations may account for sudden loss jumps observed in RNN training that could severely impede the training process. Here we first mathematically prove for a particular class of ReLU-based RNNs that certain bifurcations are indeed associated with loss gradients tending toward infinity or zero. We then introduce a novel heuristic algorithm for detecting all fixed points and $k$-cycles in ReLU-based RNNs and their existence and stability regions, hence bifurcation manifolds in parameter space. In contrast to previous numerical algorithms for finding fixed points and common continuation methods, our algorithm provides $\textit{exact}$ results and returns fixed points and cycles up to high orders with surprisingly good scaling behavior. We exemplify the algorithm on the analysis of the training process of RNNs, and find that the recently introduced technique of generalized teacher forcing completely avoids certain types of bifurcations in training. Thus, besides facilitating the DST analysis of trained RNNs, our algorithm provides a powerful instrument for analyzing the training process itself.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla, Haotian Xu, Daren Wang, OSCAR HERNAN MADRID PADILLA, Yi Yu

This paper addresses the problem of localizing and inferring multiple change points, in non-parametric multivariate time series settings. Specifically, we consider a multivariate time series with potentially short-range dependence, whose underlying distributions have Hölder smooth densities and can change over time in a piecewise-constant manner. The change points, which correspond to the times when the distribution changes, are unknown. We present the limiting distributions of the change point estimators under the scenarios where the minimal jump size vanishes or remains constant. Such results have not been revealed in the literature in non-parametric change point settings. As byproducts, we develop a sharp estimator that can accurately localize the change points in multivariate non-parametric time series, and a consistent block-type long-run variance estimator. Numerical studies are provided to complement our theoretical findings.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Shanyun Gao, Raghavendra Addanki, Tong Yu, Ryan Rossi, Murat Kocaoglu

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical science. Here, we consider this problem for a class of non-stationary time series. The structural causal model (SCM) of this type of time series, called the semi-stationary time series, exhibits that a finite number of different causal mechanisms occur sequentially and periodically across time. This model holds considerable practical utility because it can represent periodicity, including common occurrences such as seasonality and diurnal variation. We propose a constraint-based, non-parametric algorithm for discovering causal relations in this setting. The resulting algorithm, PCMCI$_{\Omega}$, can capture the alternating and recurring changes in the causal mechanisms and then identify the underlying causal graph with conditional independence (CI) tests. We show that this algorithm is sound in identifying causal relations on discrete time series. We validate the algorithm with extensive experiments on continuous and discrete simulated data. We also apply our algorithm to a real-world climate dataset.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Xiao Shou, Debarun Bhattacharjya, Tian Gao, Dharmashankar Subramanian, Oktie Hassanzadeh, Kristin P Bennett

Although pairwise causal relations have been extensively studied in observational longitudinal analyses across many disciplines, incorporating knowledge of causal pairs into deep learning models for temporal event sequences remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for enhancing the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by injecting pairwise qualitative causal knowledge such as `event Z amplifies future occurrences of event Y'. We establish a new framework for causal inference in temporal event sequences using a transformer architecture, providing a theoretical justification for our approach, and show how to obtain unbiased estimates of the proposed measure. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy by effectively leveraging knowledge about causal pairs. We also consider a unique application where we extract knowledge around sequences of societal events by generating them from a large language model, and demonstrate how a causal knowledge graph can help with event prediction in such sequences. Overall, our framework offers a practical means of improving the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by explicitly exploiting pairwise causal information.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Owen Queen, Tom Hartvigsen, Teddy Koker, Huan He, Theodoros Tsiligkaridis, Marinka Zitnik

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Bong Gyun Kang, HyunGi Kim, Dahuin Jung, Sungroh Yoon

Continual learning (CL) aims to incrementally learn multiple tasks that are presented sequentially. The significance of CL lies not only in the practical importance but also in studying the learning mechanisms of humans who are excellent continual learners. While most research on CL has been done on structured data such as images, there is a lack of research on CL for abstract logical concepts such as counting, sorting, and arithmetic, which humans learn gradually over time in the real world. In this work, for the first time, we introduce novel algorithmic reasoning (AR) methodology for continual tasks of abstract concepts: CLeAR. Our methodology proposes a one-to-many mapping of input distribution to a shared mapping space, which allows the alignment of various tasks of different dimensions and shared semantics. Our tasks of abstract logical concepts, in the form of formal language, can be classified into Chomsky hierarchies based on their difficulty. In this study, we conducted extensive experiments consisting of 15 tasks with various levels of Chomsky hierarchy, ranging from in-hierarchy to inter-hierarchy scenarios. CLeAR not only achieved near zero forgetting but also improved accuracy during following tasks, a phenomenon known as backward transfer, while previous CL methods designed for image classification drastically failed.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Jiaxiang Dong, Haixu Wu, Haoran Zhang, Li Zhang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long

Time series analysis is widely used in extensive areas. Recently, to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various tasks, self-supervised pre-training has attracted immense interest. One mainstream paradigm is masked modeling, which successfully pre-trains deep models by learning to reconstruct the masked content based on the unmasked part. However, since the semantic information of time series is mainly contained in temporal variations, the standard way of randomly masking a portion of time points will seriously ruin vital temporal variations of time series, making the reconstruction task too difficult to guide representation learning. We thus present SimMTM, a Simple pre-training framework for Masked Time-series Modeling. By relating masked modeling to manifold learning, SimMTM proposes to recover masked time points by the weighted aggregation of multiple neighbors outside the manifold, which eases the reconstruction task by assembling ruined but complementary temporal variations from multiple masked series. SimMTM further learns to uncover the local structure of the manifold, which is helpful for masked modeling. Experimentally, SimMTM achieves state-of-the-art fine-tuning performance compared to the most advanced time series pre-training methods in two canonical time series analysis tasks: forecasting and classification, covering both in- and cross-domain settings.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Samuel Dooley, Gurnoor Singh Khurana, Chirag Mohapatra, Siddartha V Naidu, Colin White

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

Reinforcement Learning/Multi-agent

Yiheng Zhu, Yang Zhan, Xuankun Huang, Yuwei Chen, yujie Chen, Jiangwen Wei, Wei Feng, Yinzhi Zhou, Haoyuan Hu, Jieping Ye

The dramatic growth of global e-commerce has led to a surge in demand for efficient and cost-effective order fulfillment which can increase customers' service levels and sellers' competitiveness. However, managing order fulfillment is challenging due to a series of interdependent online sequential decision-making problems. To clear this hurdle, rather than solving the problems separately as attempted in some recent researches, this paper proposes a method based on multi-agent reinforcement learning to integratively solve the series of interconnected problems, encompassing order handling, packing and pickup, storage, order consolidation, and last-mile delivery. In particular, we model the integrated problem as a Markov game, wherein a team of agents learns a joint policy via interacting with a simulated environment. Since no simulated environment supporting the complete order fulfillment problem exists, we devise Order Fulfillment COoperative mUlti-agent Reinforcement learning Scalable Environment (OFCOURSE) in the OpenAI Gym style, which allows reproduction and re-utilization to build customized applications. By constructing the fulfillment system in OFCOURSE, we optimize a joint policy that solves the integrated problem, facilitating sequential order-wise operations across all fulfillment units and minimizing the total cost of fulfilling all orders within the promised time. With OFCOURSE, we also demonstrate that the joint policy learned by multi-agent reinforcement learning outperforms the combination of locally optimal policies. The source code of OFCOURSE is available at: https://github.com/GitYiheng/ofcourse.

Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders

Hang Lou, Siran Li, Hao Ni

Generating high-fidelity time series data using generative adversarial networks (GANs) remains a challenging task, as it is difficult to capture the temporal dependence of joint probability distributions induced by time-series data. Towards this goal, a key step is the development of an effective discriminator to distinguish between time series distributions. We propose the so-called PCF-GAN, a novel GAN that incorporates the path characteristic function (PCF) as the principled representation of time series distribution into the discriminator to enhance its generative performance. On the one hand, we establish theoretical foundations of the PCF distance by proving its characteristicity, boundedness, differentiability with respect to generator parameters, and weak continuity, which ensure the stability and feasibility of training the PCF-GAN. On the other hand, we design efficient initialisation and optimisation schemes for PCFs to strengthen the discriminative power and accelerate training efficiency. To further boost the capabilities of complex time series generation, we integrate the auto-encoder structure via sequential embedding into the PCF-GAN, which provides additional reconstruction functionality. Extensive numerical experiments on various datasets demonstrate the consistently superior performance of PCF-GAN over state-of-the-art baselines, in both generation and reconstruction quality.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Cheng Tan, Siyuan Li, Zhangyang Gao, Wenfei Guan, Zedong Wang, Zicheng Liu, Lirong Wu, Stan Z. Li

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow, and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Chirag Raman, Alec Nonnemaker, Amelia Villegas-Morcillo, Hayley Hung, Marco Loog

We propose a post hoc saliency-based explanation framework for counterfactual reasoning in probabilistic multivariate time-series forecasting (regression) settings. Building upon Miller's framework of explanations derived from research in multiple social science disciplines, we establish a conceptual link between counterfactual reasoning and saliency-based explanation techniques. To address the lack of a principled notion of saliency, we leverage a unifying definition of information-theoretic saliency grounded in preattentive human visual cognition and extend it to forecasting settings. Specifically, we obtain a closed-form expression for commonly used density functions to identify which observed timesteps appear salient to an underlying model in making its probabilistic forecasts. We empirically validate our framework in a principled manner using synthetic data to establish ground-truth saliency that is unavailable for real-world data. Finally, using real-world data and forecasting models, we demonstrate how our framework can assist domain experts in forming new data-driven hypotheses about the causal relationships between features in the wild.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Shane Bergsma, Tim Zeyl, Lei Guo

We propose SutraNets, a novel method for neural probabilistic forecasting of long-sequence time series. SutraNets use an autoregressive generative model to factorize the likelihood of long sequences into products of conditional probabilities. When generating long sequences, most autoregressive approaches suffer from harmful error accumulation, as well as challenges in modeling long-distance dependencies. SutraNets treat long, univariate prediction as multivariate prediction over lower-frequency sub-series. Autoregression proceeds across time and across sub-series in order to ensure coherent multivariate (and, hence, high-frequency univariate) outputs. Since sub-series can be generated using fewer steps, SutraNets effectively reduce error accumulation and signal path distances. We find SutraNets to significantly improve forecasting accuracy over competitive alternatives on six real-world datasets, including when we vary the number of sub-series and scale up the depth and width of the underlying sequence models.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Vinitra Swamy, Malika Satayeva, Jibril Frej, Thierry Bossy, Thijs Vogels, Martin Jaggi, Tanja Käser, Mary-Anne Hartley

Predicting multiple real-world tasks in a single model often requires a particularly diverse feature space. Multimodal (MM) models aim to extract the synergistic predictive potential of multiple data types to create a shared feature space with aligned semantic meaning across inputs of drastically varying sizes (i.e. images, text, sound). Most current MM architectures fuse these representations in parallel, which not only limits their interpretability but also creates a dependency on modality availability. We present MultiModN, a multimodal, modular network that fuses latent representations in a sequence of any number, combination, or type of modality while providing granular real-time predictive feedback on any number or combination of predictive tasks. MultiModN's composable pipeline is interpretable-by-design, as well as innately multi-task and robust to the fundamental issue of biased missingness. We perform four experiments on several benchmark MM datasets across 10 real-world tasks (predicting medical diagnoses, academic performance, and weather), and show that MultiModN's sequential MM fusion does not compromise performance compared with a baseline of parallel fusion. By simulating the challenging bias of missing not-at-random (MNAR), this work shows that, contrary to MultiModN, parallel fusion baselines erroneously learn MNAR and suffer catastrophic failure when faced with different patterns of MNAR at inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first inherently MNAR-resistant approach to MM modeling. In conclusion, MultiModN provides granular insights, robustness, and flexibility without compromising performance.

Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders

Zacharia Issa, Blanka Horvath, Maud Lemercier, Cristopher Salvi

Neural SDEs are continuous-time generative models for sequential data. State-of-the-art performance for irregular time series generation has been previously obtained by training these models adversarially as GANs. However, as typical for GAN architectures, training is notoriously unstable, often suffers from mode collapse, and requires specialised techniques such as weight clipping and gradient penalty to mitigate these issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of scoring rules on pathspace based on signature kernels and use them as objective for training Neural SDEs non-adversarially. By showing strict properness of such kernel scores and consistency of the corresponding estimators, we provide existence and uniqueness guarantees for the minimiser. With this formulation, evaluating the generator-discriminator pair amounts to solving a system of linear path-dependent PDEs which allows for memory-efficient adjoint-based backpropagation. Moreover, because the proposed kernel scores are well-defined for paths with values in infinite dimensional spaces of functions, our framework can be easily extended to generate spatiotemporal data. Our procedure significantly outperforms alternative ways of training Neural SDEs on a variety of tasks including the simulation of rough volatility models, the conditional probabilistic forecasts of real-world forex pairs where the conditioning variable is an observed past trajectory, and the mesh-free generation of limit order book dynamics.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Zhen Liu, ma peitian, Dongliang Chen, Wenbin Pei, Qianli Ma

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been criticized because they easily overfit noisy (incorrect) labels. To improve the robustness of DNNs, existing methods for image data regard samples with small training losses as correctly labeled data (small-loss criterion). Nevertheless, time series' discriminative patterns are easily distorted by external noises (i.e., frequency perturbations) during the recording process. This results in training losses of some time series samples that do not meet the small-loss criterion. Therefore, this paper proposes a deep learning paradigm called Scale-teaching to cope with time series noisy labels. Specifically, we design a fine-to-coarse cross-scale fusion mechanism for learning discriminative patterns by utilizing time series at different scales to train multiple DNNs simultaneously. Meanwhile, each network is trained in a cross-teaching manner by using complementary information from different scales to select small-loss samples as clean labels. For unselected large-loss samples, we introduce multi-scale embedding graph learning via label propagation to correct their labels by using selected clean samples. Experiments on multiple benchmark time series datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed Scale-teaching paradigm over state-of-the-art methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness.

Applications/Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Qi Xu, Yuyuan Gao, Jiangrong Shen, Yaxin Li, Xuming Ran, Huajin Tang, Gang Pan

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) serve as one type of efficient model to process spatio-temporal patterns in time series, such as the Address-Event Representation data collected from Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS). Although convolutional SNNs have achieved remarkable performance on these AER datasets, benefiting from the predominant spatial feature extraction ability of convolutional structure, they ignore temporal features related to sequential time points. In this paper, we develop a recurrent spiking neural network (RSNN) model embedded with an advanced spiking convolutional block attention module (SCBAM) component to combine both spatial and temporal features of spatio-temporal patterns. It invokes the history information in spatial and temporal channels adaptively through SCBAM, which brings the advantages of efficient memory calling and history redundancy elimination. The performance of our model was evaluated in DVS128-Gesture dataset and other time-series datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed SRNN-SCBAM model makes better use of the history information in spatial and temporal dimensions with less memory space, and achieves higher accuracy compared to other models.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Jonathan Pilault, Mahan Fathi, Orhan Firat, Chris Pal, Pierre-Luc Bacon, Ross Goroshin

State space models (SSMs) have shown impressive results on tasks that require modeling long-range dependencies and efficiently scale to long sequences owing to their subquadratic runtime complexity.Originally designed for continuous signals, SSMs have shown superior performance on a plethora of tasks, in vision and audio; however, SSMs still lag Transformer performance in Language Modeling tasks.In this work, we propose a hybrid layer named Block-State Transformer (*BST*), that internally combines an SSM sublayer for long-range contextualization, and a Block Transformer sublayer for short-term representation of sequences.We study three different, and completely *parallelizable*, variants that integrate SSMs and block-wise attention.We show that our model outperforms similar Transformer-based architectures on language modeling perplexity and generalizes to longer sequences. In addition, the Block-State Transformer demonstrates a more than *tenfold* increase in speed at the layer level compared to the Block-Recurrent Transformer when model parallelization is employed.