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Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Bo Peng, Yadan Luo, Yonggang Zhang, Yixuan Li, Zhen Fang

Post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has garnered intensive attention in reliable machine learning. Many efforts have been dedicated to deriving score functions based on logits, distances, or rigorous data distribution assumptions to identify low-scoring OOD samples. Nevertheless, these estimate scores may fail to accurately reflect the true data density or impose impractical constraints. To provide a unified perspective on density-based score design, we propose a novel theoretical framework grounded in Bregman divergence, which extends distribution considerations to encompass an exponential family of distributions. Leveraging the conjugation constraint revealed in our theorem, we introduce a \textsc{ConjNorm} method, reframing density function design as a search for the optimal norm coefficient $p$ against the given dataset. In light of the computational challenges of normalization, we devise an unbiased and analytically tractable estimator of the partition function using the Monte Carlo-based importance sampling technique. Extensive experiments across OOD detection benchmarks empirically demonstrate that our proposed \textsc{ConjNorm} has established a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups, outperforming the current best method by up to 13.25\% and 28.19\% (FPR95) on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K, respectively.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Isaac Reid, Eli Berger, Krzysztof Choromanski, Adrian Weller

We present a novel quasi-Monte Carlo mechanism to improve graph-based sampling, coined repelling random walks. By inducing correlations between the trajectories of an interacting ensemble such that their marginal transition probabilities are unmodified, we are able to explore the graph more efficiently, improving the concentration of statistical estimators whilst leaving them unbiased. The mechanism has a trivial drop-in implementation. We showcase the effectiveness of repelling random walks in a range of settings including estimation of graph kernels, the PageRank vector and graphlet concentrations. We provide detailed experimental evaluation and robust theoretical guarantees. To our knowledge, repelling random walks constitute the first rigorously studied quasi-Monte Carlo scheme correlating the directions of walkers on a graph, inviting new research in this exciting nascent domain.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Dinghuai Zhang, Ricky T. Q. Chen, Chenghao Liu, Aaron Courville, Yoshua Bengio

We tackle the problem of sampling from intractable high-dimensional density functions, a fundamental task that often appears in machine learning and statistics. We extend recent sampling-based approaches that leverage controlled stochastic processes to model approximate samples from these target densities. The main drawback of these approaches is that the training objective requires full trajectories to compute, resulting in sluggish credit assignment issues due to use of entire trajectories and a learning signal present only at the terminal time.In this work, we present Diffusion Generative Flow Samplers (DGFS), a sampling-based framework where the learning process can be tractably broken down into short partial trajectory segments, via parameterizing an additional ``flow function''.Our method takes inspiration from the theory developed for generative flow networks (GFlowNets), allowing us to make use of intermediate learning signals.Through various challenging experiments, we demonstrate that DGFS achieves more accurate estimates of the normalization constant than closely-related prior methods.

Reinforcement Learning

David Valensi, Esther Derman, Shie Mannor, Gal Dalal

The standard formulation of Markov decision processes (MDPs) assumes that the agent's decisions are executed immediately.However, in numerous realistic applications such as robotics or healthcare, actions are performed with a delay whose value can even be stochastic. In this work, we introduce stochastic delayed execution MDPs, a new formalism addressing random delays without resorting to state augmentation. We show that given observed delay values, it is sufficient to perform a policy search in the class of Markov policies in order to reach optimal performance, thus extending the deterministic fixed delay case. Armed with this insight, we devise DEZ, a model-based algorithm that optimizes over the class of Markov policies. DEZ leverages Monte-Carlo tree search similar to its non-delayed variant EfficientZero to accurately infer future states from the action queue. Thus, it handles delayed execution while preserving the sample efficiency of EfficientZero. Through empirical analysis, we stress that none of the prior benchmarks consistently outperforms others across different delays. We demonstrate that our algorithm surpasses all benchmark methods in Atari games when dealing with constant or stochastic delays. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/davidva1/Delayed-EZ}.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Xunpeng Huang, Hanze Dong, Yifan HAO, Yian Ma, Tong Zhang

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates---the score functions---are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one.By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Khai Nguyen, Nhat Ho

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Kejun Tang, Jiayu Zhai, Xiaoliang Wan, Chao Yang

Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) is a central task in scientific computing. Recently, neural network approximation of PDEs has received increasing attention due to its flexible meshless discretization and its potential for high-dimensional problems. One fundamental numerical difficulty is that random samples in the training set introduce statistical errors into the discretization of the loss functional which may become the dominant error in the final approximation, and therefore overshadow the modeling capability of the neural network. In this work, we propose a new minmax formulation to optimize simultaneously the approximate solution, given by a neural network model, and the random samples in the training set, provided by a deep generative model. The key idea is to use a deep generative model to adjust the random samples in the training set such that the residual induced by the neural network model can maintain a smooth profile in the training process. Such an idea is achieved by implicitly embedding the Wasserstein distance between the residual-induced distribution and the uniform distribution into the loss, which is then minimized together with the residual. A nearly uniform residual profile means that its variance is small for any normalized weight function such that the Monte Carlo approximation error of the loss functional is reduced significantly for a certain sample size. The adversarial adaptive sampling (AAS) approach proposed in this work is the first attempt to formulate two essential components, minimizing the residual and seeking the optimal training set, into one minmax objective functional for the neural network approximation of PDEs.

Applications · Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Ganchao Wei

Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to obtain spiking activity of multiple neurons from different brain regions over long time periods, which requires new statistical methods to be developed for understanding structure of the large-scale data. In this paper, we develop a bi-clustering method to cluster the neural spiking activity spatially and temporally, according to their low-dimensional latent structures. The spatial (neuron) clusters are defined by the latent trajectories within each neural population, while the temporal (state) clusters are defined by (populationally) synchronous local linear dynamics shared with different periods. To flexibly extract the bi-clustering structure, we build the model non-parametrically, and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample the posterior distributions of model parameters. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find the method can recover unknown parameters and true bi-clustering structures successfully. We then apply the proposed bi-clustering method to multi-regional neural recordings under different experiment settings, where we find that simultaneously considering latent trajectories and spatial-temporal clustering structures can provide us with a more accurate and interpretable result. Overall, the proposed method provides scientific insights for large-scale (counting) time series with elongated recording periods, and it can potentially have application beyond neuroscience.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Jorge Fernandez-de-Cossio-Diaz, Clément Roussel, Simona Cocco, Remi Monasson

Sampling complex distributions is an important but difficult objective in various fields, including physics, chemistry, and statistics. An improvement of standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods, intensively used in particular in the context of disordered systems, is Parallel Tempering, also called replica exchange MC, in which a sequence of MC Markov chains at decreasing temperatures are run in parallel and can swap their configurations. In this work we apply the ideas of parallel tempering in the context of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBM), a paradigm of unsupervised architectures, capable to learn complex, multimodal distributions. Inspired by Deep Tempering, an approach introduced for deep belief networks, we show how to learn on top of the first RBM a stack of nested RBMs, using the representations of a RBM as ’data’ for the next one along the stack. In our Stacked Tempering approach the hidden configurations of a machine can be exchanged with the visible configurations of the next one in the stack. Replica exchanges between the different RBMs is facilitated by the increasingly clustered representations learnt by deeper RBMs, allowing for fast transitions between the different modes of the data distribution. Analytical calculations of mixing times in a simplified theoretical setting shed light on why Stacked Tempering works, and how hyperparameters, such as the aspect ratios of the RBMs and weight regularization should be chosen. We illustrate the efficiency of the Stacked Tempering method with respect to standard and replica exchange MC on several datasets: MNIST, in-silico Lattice Proteins, and the 2D-Ising model.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Hyungi Lee, Giung Nam, Edwin Fong, Juho Lee

Transfer learning has recently shown significant performance across various tasks involving deep neural networks. In these transfer learning scenarios, the prior distribution for downstream data becomes crucial in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). While previous works proposed the prior over the neural network parameters centered around the pre-trained solution, such strategies have limitations when dealing with distribution shifts between upstream and downstream data. This paper introduces nonparametric transfer learning (NPTL), a flexible posterior sampling method to address the distribution shift issue within the context of nonparametric learning. The nonparametric learning (NPL) method is a recent approach that employs a nonparametric prior for posterior sampling, efficiently accounting for model misspecification scenarios, which is suitable for transfer learning scenarios that may involve the distribution shift between upstream and downstream tasks. Through extensive empirical validations, we demonstrate that our approach surpasses other baselines in BMA performance.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Bolian Li, Ruqi Zhang

Bayesian deep learning counts on the quality of posterior distribution estimation. However, the posterior of deep neural networks is highly multi-modal in nature, with local modes exhibiting varying generalization performance. Given a practical budget, targeting at the original posterior can lead to suboptimal performance, as some samples may become trapped in "bad" modes and suffer from overfitting. Leveraging the observation that "good" modes with low generalization error often reside in flat basins of the energy landscape, we propose to bias sampling on the posterior toward these flat regions. Specifically, we introduce an auxiliary guiding variable, the stationary distribution of which resembles a smoothed posterior free from sharp modes, to lead the MCMC sampler to flat basins. By integrating this guiding variable with the model parameter, we create a simple joint distribution that enables efficient sampling with minimal computational overhead. We prove the convergence of our method and further show that it converges faster than several existing flatness-aware methods in the strongly convex setting. Empirical results demonstrate that our method can successfully sample from flat basins of the posterior, and outperforms all compared baselines on multiple benchmarks including classification, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection.

Optimization

Yingyu Lin, Yian Ma, Yu-Xiang Wang, Rachel Redberg, Zhiqi Bu

Posterior sampling, i.e., exponential mechanism to sample from the posterior distribution, provides $\varepsilon$-pure differential privacy (DP) guarantees and does not suffer from potentially unbounded privacy breach introduced by $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-approximate DP. In practice, however, one needs to apply approximate sampling methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), thus re-introducing the unappealing $\delta$-approximation error into the privacy guarantees. To bridge this gap, we propose the Approximate SAample Perturbation (abbr. ASAP) algorithm which perturbs an MCMC sample with noise proportional to its Wasserstein-infinity ($W_\infty$) distance from a reference distribution that satisfies pure DP or pure Gaussian DP (i.e., $\delta=0$). We then leverage a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate the sample and prove that the algorithm converges in W$_\infty$ distance. We show that by combining our new techniques with a localization step, we obtain the first nearly linear-time algorithm that achieves the optimal rates in the DP-ERM problem with strongly convex and smooth losses.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Zehao Dou, Yang Song

Diffusion models have achieved tremendous success in generating high-dimensional data like images, videos and audio. These models provide powerful data priors that can solve linear inverse problems in zero shot through Bayesian posterior sampling.However, exact posterior sampling for diffusion models is intractable. Current solutions often hinge on approximations that are either computationally expensive or lack strong theoretical guarantees. In this work, we introduce an efficient diffusion sampling algorithm for linear inverse problems that is guaranteed to be asymptotically accurate. We reveal a link between Bayesian posterior sampling and Bayesian filtering in diffusion models, proving the former as a specific instance of the latter. Our method, termed filtering posterior sampling, leverages sequential Monte Carlo methods to solve the corresponding filtering problem. It seamlessly integrates with all Markovian diffusion samplers, requires no model re-training, and guarantees accurate samples from the Bayesian posterior as particle counts rise. Empirical tests demonstrate that our method generates better or comparable results than leading zero-shot diffusion posterior samplers on tasks like image inpainting, super-resolution, and deblurring.

Optimization · Sampling and Optimization

Nick Richardson, Deniz Oktay, Yaniv Ovadia, James Bowden, Ryan P Adams

Integrals with discontinuous integrands are ubiquitous, arising from discrete structure in applications like topology optimization, graphics, and computational geometry. These integrals are often part of a forward model in an inverse problem where it is necessary to reason backwards about the parameters, ideally using gradient-based optimization. Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate the value of integrals, but this results in a non-differentiable approximation that is amenable to neither conventional automatic differentiation nor reparameterization-based gradient methods. This significantly disrupts efforts to integrate machine learning methods in areas that exhibit these discontinuities: physical simulation and robotics, design, graphics, and computational geometry. Although bespoke domain-specific techniques can handle special cases, a general methodology to wield automatic differentiation in these discrete contexts is wanting. We introduce a differentiable variant of the simple Monte Carlo estimator which samples line segments rather than points from the domain. We justify our estimator analytically as conditional Monte Carlo and demonstrate the diverse functionality of the method as applied to image stylization, topology optimization, and computational geometry.

Optimization · Sampling and Optimization

LU YU, Avetik Karagulyan, Arnak Dalalyan

We revisit the problem of sampling from a target distribution that has a smooth strongly log-concave density everywhere in $\mathbb{R}^p$. In this context, if no additional density information is available, the randomized midpoint discretization for the kinetic Langevin diffusion is known to be the most scalable method in high dimensions with large condition numbers. Our main result is a nonasymptotic and easy to compute upper bound on the $W_2$-error of this method. To provide a more thorough explanation of our method for establishing the computable upper bound, we conduct an analysis of the midpoint discretization for the vanilla Langevin process. This analysis helps to clarify the underlying principles and provides valuable insights that we use to establish an improved upper bound for the kinetic Langevin process with the midpoint discretization. Furthermore, by applying these techniques we establish new guarantees for the kinetic Langevin process with Euler discretization, which have a better dependence on the condition number than existing upper bounds

Optimization · Sampling and Optimization

Marien Renaud, Jiaming Liu, Valentin De Bortoli, Andres Almansa, Ulugbek Kamilov

Posterior sampling has been shown to be a powerful Bayesian approach for solving imaging inverse problems. The recent plug-and-play unadjusted Langevin algorithm (PnP-ULA) has emerged as a promising method for Monte Carlo sampling and minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimation by combining physical measurement models with deep-learning priors specified using image denoisers. However, the intricate relationship between the sampling distribution of PnP-ULA and the mismatched data-fidelity and denoiser has not been theoretically analyzed. We address this gap by proposing a posterior-$L_2$ pseudometric and using it to quantify an explicit error bound for PnP-ULA under mismatched posterior distribution. We numerically validate our theory on several inverse problems such as sampling from Gaussian mixture models and image deblurring. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of the sampling distribution of PnP-ULA to a mismatch in the measurement model and the denoiser can be precisely characterized.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Sanghyuk Chun

Image-Text Matching (ITM) task, a fundamental vision-language (VL) task, suffers from the inherent ambiguity arising from multiplicity and imperfect annotations. Deterministic functions are not sufficiently powerful to capture ambiguity, prompting the exploration of probabilistic embeddings to tackle the challenge. However, the existing probabilistic ITM approach encounters two key shortcomings; the burden of heavy computations due to the Monte Carlo approximation, and the loss saturation issue in the face of abundant false negatives. To overcome the issues, this paper presents an improved Probabilistic Cross-Modal Embeddings (named PCME++) by introducing a new probabilistic distance with a closed-form solution. In addition, two optimization techniques are proposed to enhance PCME++ further: first, the incorporation of pseudo-positives to prevent the negative effect under massive false negatives; second, mixed sample data augmentation for probabilistic matching. Experimental results on MS-COCO Caption and two extended benchmarks, CxC and ECCV Caption, demonstrate the effectiveness of PCME++ compared to state-of-the-art ITM methods. The robustness of PCME++ is also evaluated under noisy image-text correspondences. In addition, the potential applicability of PCME++ in automatic prompt-filtering for zero-shot classification is shown. The code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/pcmepp.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Chongyi Zheng, Ruslan Salakhutdinov, Benjamin Eysenbach

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves $2 \times$ median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about $20\times$ more sample efficient than the successor representation and $1500 \times$ more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Deep Learning · Robustness

Blaise Delattre, Alexandre Araujo, Quentin Barthélemy, Alexandre Allauzen

Real-life applications of deep neural networks are hindered by their unsteady predictions when faced with noisy inputs and adversarial attacks. The certified radius in this context is a crucial indicator of the robustness of models. However how to design an efficient classifier with an associated certified radius? Randomized smoothing provides a promising framework by relying on noise injection into the inputs to obtain a smoothed and robust classifier. In this paper, we first show that the variance introduced by the Monte-Carlo sampling in the randomized smoothing procedure estimate closely interacts with two other important properties of the classifier, \textit{i.e.} its Lipschitz constant and margin. More precisely, our work emphasizes the dual impact of the Lipschitz constant of the base classifier, on both the smoothed classifier and the empirical variance. To increase the certified robust radius, we introduce a different way to convert logits to probability vectors for the base classifier to leverage the variance-margin trade-off. We leverage the use of Bernstein's concentration inequality along with enhanced Lipschitz bounds for randomized smoothing. Experimental results show a significant improvement in certified accuracy compared to current state-of-the-art methods. Our novel certification procedure allows us to use pre-trained models with randomized smoothing, effectively improving the current certification radius in a zero-shot manner.

Applications · Chemistry and Drug Discovery

Jiarui Lu, Bozitao Zhong, Zuobai Zhang, Jian Tang

The dynamic nature of proteins is crucial for determining their biological functions and properties, for which Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations stand as predominant tools to study such phenomena. By utilizing empirically derived force fields, MC or MD simulations explore the conformational space through numerically evolving the system via Markov chain or Newtonian mechanics. However, the high-energy barrier of the force fields can hamper the exploration of both methods by the rare event, resulting in inadequately sampled ensemble without exhaustive running. Existing learning-based approaches perform direct sampling yet heavily rely on target-specific simulation data for training, which suffers from high data acquisition cost and poor generalizability. Inspired by simulated annealing, we propose Str2Str, a novel structure-to-structure translation framework capable of zero-shot conformation sampling with roto-translation equivariant property. Our method leverages an amortized denoising score matching objective trained on general crystal structures and has no reliance on simulation data during both training and inference. Experimental results across several benchmarking protein systems demonstrate that Str2Str outperforms previous state-of-the-art generative structure prediction models and can be orders of magnitude faster compared with long MD simulations.