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Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Steven Adriaensen, Herilalaina Rakotoarison, Samuel Müller, Frank Hutter

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs.In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Kim Nicoli, Christopher J. Anders, Lena Funcke, Tobias Hartung, Karl Jansen, Stefan Kühn, Klaus-Robert Müller, Paolo Stornati, Pan Kessel, Shinichi Nakajima

In this paper, we propose a novel and powerful method to harness Bayesian optimization for variational quantum eigensolvers (VQEs) - a hybrid quantum-classical protocol used to approximate the ground state of a quantum Hamiltonian. Specifically, we derive a *VQE-kernel* which incorporates important prior information about quantum circuits: the kernel feature map of the VQE-kernel exactly matches the known functional form of the VQE's objective function and thereby significantly reduces the posterior uncertainty.Moreover, we propose a novel acquisition function for Bayesian optimization called \emph{Expected Maximum Improvement over Confident Regions} (EMICoRe) which can actively exploit the inductive bias of the VQE-kernel by treating regions with low predictive uncertainty as indirectly "observed". As a result, observations at as few as three points in the search domain are sufficient to determine the complete objective function along an entire one-dimensional subspace of the optimization landscape. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach improves over state-of-the-art baselines.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Kajetan Schweighofer, Lukas Aichberger, Mykyta Ielanskyi, Günter Klambauer, Sepp Hochreiter

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Xingsi Dong, Si Wu

Bayesian brain theory suggests that the brain employs generative models to understand the external world. The sampling-based perspective posits that the brain infers the posterior distribution through samples of stochastic neuronal responses. Additionally, the brain continually updates its generative model to approach the true distribution of the external world. In this study, we introduce the Hierarchical Exponential-family Energy-based (HEE) model, which captures the dynamics of inference and learning. In the HEE model, we decompose the partition function into individual layers and leverage a group of neurons with shorter time constants to sample the gradient of the decomposed normalization term. This allows our model to estimate the partition function and perform inference simultaneously, circumventing the negative phase encountered in conventional energy-based models (EBMs). As a result, the learning process is localized both in time and space, and the model is easy to converge. To match the brain's rapid computation, we demonstrate that neural adaptation can serve as a momentum term, significantly accelerating the inference process. On natural image datasets, our model exhibits representations akin to those observed in the biological visual system. Furthermore, for the machine learning community, our model can generate observations through joint or marginal generation. We show that marginal generation outperforms joint generation and achieves performance on par with other EBMs.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Qingyao Sun, Kevin Murphy, Sayna Ebrahimi, Alexander D'Amour

Changes in the data distribution at test time can have deleterious effects on the performance of predictive models $p(y|x)$.We consider situations where there are additional meta-data labels (such as group labels), denoted by $z$, that can account for such changes in the distribution.In particular, we assume that the prior distribution $p(y,z)$, which models the dependence between the class label $y$ and the "nuisance" factors $z$, may change across domains, either due to a change in the correlation between these terms, or a change in one of their marginals.However, we assume that the generative model for features $p(x|y,z)$ is invariant across domains.We note that this corresponds to an expanded version of the widely used "label shift" assumption, where the labels now also include the nuisance factors $z$. Based on this observation, we propose a test-time label shift correction that adapts to changes in the joint distribution $p(y, z)$ using EM applied to unlabeled samples from the target domain distribution, $p_t(x)$.Importantly, we are able to avoid fitting a generative model $p(x|y,z)$, and merely need to reweight the outputs of a discriminative model $p_s(y,z|x)$ trained on the source distribution.We evaluate our method, which we call "Test-Time Label-Shift Adaptation" (TTLSA), on several standard image and text datasets, as well as the CheXpert chest X-ray dataset, and show that it improves performance over methods that target invariance to changes in the distribution, as well as baseline empirical risk minimization methods.Code for reproducing experiments is available at https://github.com/nalzok/test-time-label-shift.