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Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Yingyan Zeng, Zipan Huang, Xiaoyu Chen

Existing online change-point detection (CPD) methods rely on fixed-dimensional Euclidean summaries, implicitly assuming that distributional changes are well captured by moment-based or feature-based representations. They can obscure important changes in distributional shape or geometry. We propose a geometry-aware CPD framework that treats streaming batch data as a stochastic process on the 2-Wasserstein space. Our method detects changes in the law of this process by mapping each empirical distribution to a tangent space relative to a pre-change Fréchet barycenter, yielding a reference-centered local linearization of 2-Wasserstein space. This representation enables sequential detectors by adapting classical multivariate monitoring statistics to tangent fields. We provide theoretical guarantees and demonstrate, via synthetic and real-world experiments, that our approach detects complex distributional shifts with reduced detection delay at matched $\mathrm{ARL}_0$ compared with moments-based and model-free baselines.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Cristiana Diaconu, Miles Cranmer, Richard E Turner, Tanya Marwah, Payel Mukhopadhyay

Dominant approaches for modelling Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) rely on deterministic predictions, yet many physical systems of interest are inherently chaotic and uncertain. While training probabilistic models from scratch is possible, it is computationally expensive and fails to leverage the significant resources already invested in high-performing deterministic backbones. In this work, we adopt a training-efficient strategy to transform pre-trained deterministic models into probabilistic ones via retrofitting with a proper scoring rule: the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Crucially, this approach is architecture-agnostic: it applies the same adaptation mechanism across distinct model backbones with minimal code modifications. The method proves highly effective across different scales of pre-training: for models trained on single dynamical systems, we achieve $20–54\%$ reductions in rollout CRPS and up to $30\%$ improvements in variance-normalised RMSE (VRMSE) relative to compute-matched deterministic fine-tuning. We further validate our approach on a PDE foundation model, trained on multiple systems and retrofitted on the dataset of interest, to show that our probabilistic adaptation yields an improvement of up to $40\%$ in CRPS and up to $15\%$ in VRMSE compared to deterministic fine-tuning. Validated across diverse architectures and dynamics, our results show that probabilistic PDE modelling need not require retraining from scratch, but can be unlocked from existing deterministic backbones with modest additional training cost.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Yury Gorishniy, Akim Kotelnikov, Ivan Rubachev, Artem Babenko

Deep learning models for supervised learning on tabular data are rapidly improving. Notably, ensembles (mixtures of multiple models) often play an important role in achieving top performance, which motivates designing ensemble-first systems rather than treating ensembling as an ad hoc trick. In this work, we present TabPack --- a new ensembling approach that packs many base model-optimizer pairs with different hyperparameters into a single neural network and a single optimizer. The base model-optimizer hyperparameters are sampled randomly, after which all base models are trained in parallel, and the final ensemble is built on the fly during training. As a result, TabPack produces powerful ensembles in a single run, with substantial efficiency gains over traditional approaches. With its remarkable efficiency, strong performance on public benchmarks, and reduced reliance on traditional hyperparameter tuning, TabPack becomes an appealing solution for practitioners, and suggests a new avenue for designing better tabular deep learning systems.

Social Aspects · Everything Else

Arjhun Swaminathan, Anika Hannemann

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) standardizes AI agent-tool interaction, accelerating agentic AI adoption through interoperability. This presents an opportunity to embed trustworthiness: As a standard and an interface between agents and tools, MCP becomes a natural enforcement point; any improvements to it automatically propagate to all systems using it. Analyzing MCP through EU Commission’s Ethics guidelines for trustworthy AI, we identify three things: fundamental shifts in how trustworthiness works, critical challenges these shifts create, and strategic intervention points where protocol-level mechanisms can achieve ecosystem-wide impact. We argue how MCP’s architecture provides a foundation for trustworthiness and propose practical improvements to strengthen it. This position paper posits that building trustworthy MCP enables responsible agentic AI deployments.

Theory · Everything Else

Yash Sarrof, Yupei Du, Katharina Stein, Alexander Koller, Sylvie Thiébaux, Michael Hahn

Transformers have shown inconsistent success in AI planning tasks, and theoretical understanding of when generalization should be expected has been limited. We take important steps towards addressing this gap by analyzing the ability of decoder-only models to verify whether a given plan correctly solves a given planning instance. To analyse the general setting where the number of objects -- and thus the effective input alphabet -- grows at test time, we introduce C*-RASP, an extension of C-RASP designed to establish length generalization guarantees for transformers under the simultaneous growth in sequence length and vocabulary size. Our results identify a large class of classical planning domains for which transformers can provably learn to verify long plans, and structural properties that significantly affects the learnability of length generalizable solutions. Empirical experiments corroborate our theory.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Haoyu Han, Heng Yang

Policy-gradient methods are widely used in reinforcement learning, yet training often becomes unstable or slows down as learning progresses. We study this phenomenon through the noise-to-signal ratio (NSR) of a policy-gradient estimator, defined as the estimator variance (noise) normalized by the squared norm of the true gradient (signal). Our main result is that, for (i) finite-horizon linear systems with Gaussian policies and linear state-feedback, and (ii) finite-horizon polynomial systems with Gaussian policies and polynomial feedback, the NSR of the REINFORCE estimator can be characterized exactly—either in closed form or via numerical moment-evaluation algorithms—without approximation. For general nonlinear dynamics and expressive policies (including neural policies), we further derive a general upper bound on the variance. These characterizations enable a direct examination of how NSR varies across policy parameters and how it evolves along optimization trajectories (e.g. SGD and Adam). Across a range of examples, we find that the NSR landscape is highly non-uniform and typically increases as the policy approaches an optimum; in some regimes it blows up, which can trigger training instability and policy collapse.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Xuandi Luo, Huaidong Zhang, Yi Xie, Shengfeng He

Continual learning seeks to develop models capable of acquiring new tasks sequentially while retaining prior knowledge. A central challenge in this setting is managing inherent knowledge conflicts that arise as overlapping or contradictory information is introduced across tasks. While parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques, particularly those based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), have shown promise by reducing interference through parameter isolation or modular architectures, they often treat conflict as something to avoid rather than address directly. In this work, we propose $\underline{S}$ubspace-$\underline{A}$ligned $\underline{B}$alanc$\underline{e}$d $\underline{R}$ecomposition (SABER), a novel method that reframes continual learning as a problem of structured conflict management. SABER introduces a unified subspace alignment framework to support shared task representations, decomposes task-specific knowledge into orthogonal components to preserve distinct information, and recomposes them using an energy-aware balancing mechanism that coordinates contributions without compromising stability. Extensive experiments across multiple continual learning benchmarks show that SABER achieves performance on par with or surpassing state-of-the-art methods, offering a principled approach that directly addresses the root cause of forgetting by managing representational conflict.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Jiawei Gu, Fengyuan Nie, Hao Tang, Yanpeng Sun

Low-precision arithmetic is pervasive in neural network training and deployment, yet its effect on prediction \textit{confidence}, not just accuracy, remains unexamined. We show that the softmax function amplifies logit-space quantization errors in an input-dependent manner: confidence distortion scales with the product of precision-dependent error bound $\epsilon$ and logit norm, peaking when the model is confident but not saturated. This explains why identical models report different confidence values across precisions, a phenomenon we term \textit{Precision Split}. During training, the same mechanism causes gradient underflow: when logit margins exceed a precision-dependent threshold, gradients vanish and samples silently stop contributing to learning. Since logit norm serves as a computable proxy for precision-induced risk, we propose Precision-Aware Confidence Scaling (PACS), which applies sample-adaptive temperature inversely related to this risk, with sub-one-percent overhead and no full-precision computation required. On ImageNet with mixed-precision ResNet-50, PACS reduces Expected Calibration Error from 5.82\% to 1.92\% while maintaining accuracy, with consistent improvements across architectures, precision formats, and modalities.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Daniel Csillag, Pedro Dall’Antonia, Claudio Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Prediction-powered inference is a recent methodology for the safe use of black-box ML models to impute missing data, strengthening inference of statistical parameters. However, many applications require strong properties besides valid inference, such as privacy, robustness or validity under continuous distribution shifts; deriving prediction-powered methods with such guarantees is generally an arduous process, and has to be done case by case. In this paper, we resolve this issue by connecting prediction-powered inference with conformal prediction: by performing imputation through a calibrated set-predictor, we attain validity while achieving additional guarantees in a natural manner. We instantiate our procedure for the inference of means, Z- and M-estimation, as well as e-values and e-value-based procedures. Furthermore, in the case of e-values, ours is the first general prediction-powered procedure that operates off-line. We demonstrate these advantages by applying our method on private and time-series data. Both tasks are nontrivial within the standard prediction-powered framework but become natural under our method.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Jinzong Dong, Zhaohui Jiang, Bo Yang

Confidence calibration for classification models is vital in safety-critical decision-making scenarios and has received extensive attention. General confidence calibration methods assume training and test data are independent and identically distributed ($i.i.d.$), limiting their effectiveness under covariate shifts. Previous calibration methods under covariate shift struggle with class-wise or canonical calibrations and often rely on unstable importance weighting when density ratios are large or unbounded. Given the above limitations, this paper rethinks confidence calibration under covariate shifts. First, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for confidence calibration under covariate shifts, named Expectation consistency condition, which reveals covariate shifts do not necessarily lead to uncalibrated confidence and provides a weaker condition for confidence calibration than global covariate distribution alignment. Then, utilizing Expectation consistency condition, this paper proposes an unsupervised domain adaptation loss to calibrate confidence of the target domain, named Expectation consistency loss (ECL), which is compatible with canonical calibration, class-wise calibration, and top-label calibration. Third, we prove that computing ECL loss has the same sample complexity as Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and provide a theoretically grounded mini-batch trainable scheme for ECL loss. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of our method on both simulated and real-world covariate shift datasets.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Hai Zhong, Xun Wang, Zhuoran Li, Longbo Huang

By leveraging differentiable dynamics, Reparameterization Policy Gradient (RPG) achieves high sample efficiency. However, current approaches are hindered by two critical limitations: the under-utilization of computationally expensive dynamics Jacobians and inherent training instability. While sample reuse offers a remedy for under-utilization, no prior principled framework exists, and naive attempts risks exacerbating instability. To address these challenges, we propose Reparameterization Proximal Policy Optimization (RPO). We first establish that under sample reuse, RPG naturally optimizes a PPO-style surrogate objective via Backpropagation Through Time, providing a unified framework for both on- and off-policy updates. To further ensure stability, RPO integrates a clipped policy gradient mechanism tailored for RPG and employs explicit Kullback-Leibler divergence regularization. Experimental results demonstrate that RPO maintains superior sample efficiency and consistently outperforms or achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse tasks.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Jintao Li, Maowen Tang, Yongji Long, Weixuan Liu, Yanlang Zheng, Sicheng He, Ao-Jin Li, Shui Yu, Yun Li

Constrained multi-objective reinforcement learning aims to discover a diverse set of feasible trade-offs, yet scalarization and signed, normalized group-relative advantages can be brittle under objective-scale drift, near-ties, and feasibility scarcity. We propose constrained projection policy optimization (CoPro), which alternates between an E-step moment projection and an M-step policy projection. In the E-step, we solve a Kullback-Leibler (KL)-regularized, moment-constrained projection over each sampled group to compute a nonnegative reweighting distribution (q*) that promotes feasible Pareto-front (PF) progress, preserves feasibility anchors, and suppresses ambiguous near-ties. This E-step admits a closed-form exponential-family solution and guarantees strictly positive probability mass on feasible anchors whenever feasible candidates appear in the group. In the M-step, we project the policy toward q* via weighted maximum likelihood with a trust-region regularizer, yielding a PF-aligned update direction from comparisons without hand-crafted reward shaping. Empirically, CoPro improves feasible PF quality and robustness on constrained multi-objective benchmarks for large language model tool use and analog circuit design tasks. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CoPro-8A95/README.md.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Georgios Kaissis, David Mildenberger, Felipe Gomez, Martin Menten, Eleni Triantafillou

We study how individual training examples shape the internal computation of looped transformers, where a shared block is applied for $\tau$ recurrent iterations to enable latent reasoning. Existing training-data influence estimators such as TracIn yield a single scalar score that aggregates over all loop iterations, obscuring when during the recurrent computation a training example matters. We introduce Step-Decomposed Influence (SDI), which decomposes TracIn into a length-$\tau$ influence trajectory by unrolling the recurrent computation graph and attributing influence to specific loop iterations. To make SDI practical at transformer scale, we propose a TensorSketch implementation that never materialises per-example gradients. Experiments on looped GPT-style models and algorithmic reasoning tasks show that SDI scales excellently, matches full-gradient baselines with low error and supports a broad range of data attribution and interpretability tasks with per-step insights into the latent reasoning process.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Zhijian Zhou, Long Li, Xuan Zhang, Zongkai Liu, Yanting Miao, Yuchen Liu, Deshu Chen, Ke Li, Xing Sun, Ruoxi Jiang 等

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become a cornerstone for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard actor-critic methods, such as PPO, rely on scalar value functions that estimate only the expectation of cumulative returns. This reduction inherently discards higher-order statistical information (e.g., variance and multimodality), leading to inaccurate value estimation and suboptimal credit assignment in complex tasks. While Distributional RL offers a solution by modeling the full return distribution, its application to LLMs remains challenging due to the computational intractability of value-based operations over large vocabularies and the instability and memory burden of off-policy replay mechanisms. In this paper, we propose DisPPO, a novel on-policy framework that seamlessly integrates non-parametric quantile regression into PPO. Theoretically, we prove that our distributional update operator---composed of the $\lambda$-return Bellman operator and quantile projection---is a contraction mapping in the Wasserstein metric, guaranteeing convergence to a unique fixed point. Empirically, we evaluate DisPPO using Llama and Qwen models across diverse benchmarks, including mathematical reasoning and Text-to-SQL generation. DisPPO consistently outperforms standard PPO and recent group-based baselines in both Pass@1 and Pass@$k$ metrics, demonstrating that distributional critics provide a richer, more robust learning signal for large-scale reasoning models.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Peiman Mohseni, Nick Duffield, Raymond K. W. Wong

Many phenomena in science and engineering involve unknown latent functions observed through finite, irregularly sampled measurements. Neural processes (NPs) offer a powerful framework for probabilistic functional inference by bridging stochastic processes with deep learning. In many domains, these functions exhibit symmetries---most notably translation equivariance---that can be exploited to improve sample efficiency and generalization. Existing translation-equivariant NPs, however, have two key limitations: (i) they are constructed by stacking generic components with nonlinearities, obscuring the induced function class, thus limiting interpretability; and (ii) convolutional designs are based on localized receptive fields and require dense discretization, while attention-based methods avoid these issues but scale quadratically with the number of observations. We address these challenges through two contributions. First, we characterize continuous translation-equivariant operators through their Volterra expansions, representing them as sums of higher-order convolutions. This yields analytical transparency while remaining amenable to efficient approximation by first-order convolution operators. Second, we introduce set Fourier convolutions (SFConvs), a frequency-domain parameterization that operates directly on irregularly sampled sets. SFConvs achieve global receptive fields without spatial discretization and scale linearly in the number of observations. Building on these ideas, we propose two families of conditional NPs (CNPs): SFConvCNPs, constructed by stacking SFConv blocks with nonlinearies, and SFVConvCNPs, which integrate the Volterra formulation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our methods compared to the state-of-the-art baselines.

General Machine Learning · Everything Else

Congyu Qiao, Haohao Dong, Xin Geng, Ning Xu

Imbalanced Unreliable Partial Label Learning (I-UPLL) is a challenging weakly supervised learning setting in which severe class imbalance and unreliable candidate labels jointly degrade model performance. By revisiting existing approaches for imbalanced learning, we observe that most of them fundamentally rely on estimating the class prior to guide balancing operations, such as re-sampling, pseudo-label generation, or logit adjustment. However, under I-UPLL, obtaining stable and accurate prior estimates at the early stage of training is often unrealistic due to the ambiguity and unreliability of partial labels, thereby leading the model to rapidly converge to a suboptimal solution. To address this issue, we propose CLAPOR, a novel CLAss-PriOr perturbation-Robust regularization framework that fundamentally avoids dependence on accurate prior estimation. Specifically, the proposed regularization trains the model under deliberately perturbed class priors, sampled from a Dirichlet distribution that deviates from the current estimated prior. This design encourages consistent performance under prior uncertainty and naturally preserves attention to minority classes. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CLAPOR across various settings of I-UPLL.

Theory · Everything Else

Sahel Torkamani, Henry Gouk, Rik Sarkar

Quantifying the distance between datasets is a fundamental question in mathematics and machine learning. We propose \textit{magnitude distance}, a novel distance metric defined on finite datasets using the notion of the \emph{magnitude} of a metric space. The proposed distance incorporates a tunable scaling parameter, $t$, that controls the sensitivity to global structure (small $t$) and finer details (large $t$). We prove several theoretical properties of magnitude distance, including its limiting behavior across scales and conditions under which it satisfies key metric properties. In contrast to classical distances, we show that magnitude distance remains discriminative in high-dimensional settings when the scale is appropriately tuned. We further demonstrate how magnitude distance can be used as a training objective for push-forward generative models. Our experimental results support our theoretical analysis and demonstrate that magnitude distance provides meaningful signals, comparable to established distance-based generative approaches.

Social Aspects · Everything Else

Lucas Irwin, Tung-Yu Wu, Fazl Barez

AI-driven automation threatens to erode government tax bases, lower living standards, and disempower citizens—risks that mirror the 40-year stagnation of wages during the first industrial revolution. While AI safety research has focused primarily on capability risks, comparatively little work has studied how to mitigate the economic risks of AI. This position paper argues that technical governance researchers should prioritize the study of token taxes: usage-based surcharges on model inference applied at the point of sale. We situate token taxes within previous proposals for robot taxes and identify two key advantages: they are enforceable through existing compute governance infrastructure, and they capture value where AI is used rather than where models are hosted. We then present a research roadmap. For enforcement, we outline a staged audit pipeline---black-box token verification, norm-based tax rates, and white-box audits---and identify open technical problems at each stage. For impact, we highlight the need for economic modeling of cost pass-through and deadweight loss. Finally, we discuss why FLOP taxes may be preferable, token taxes could stifle innovation, and that AI superpowers can veto such measures.

Applications · Everything Else

Srivatsa Kundurthy, Clara Na, Michael Handley, Zach Kirshner, Chen Bo Calvin Zhang, Manasi Sharma, Emma Strubell, John Ling

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly tasked with producing and manipulating structured artifacts. We consider the task of end-to-end **spreadsheet generation**, where language models are prompted to produce spreadsheet artifacts to satisfy users' explicit and implicit constraints, specified in natural language. We introduce **SpreadsheetArena**, a platform for evaluating models' performance on the task via blind pairwise evaluations of LLM-generated spreadsheet workbooks. As with other complex, open-ended tasks, relevant evaluation criteria can vary substantially across use cases and prompts, often in ways that are difficult to formalize. Compared to general chat or text generation settings, spreadsheet generation presents unique challenges and opportunities: the task output structure is well-defined and multi-dimensional, and there are often complex considerations around interactivity and layout. Among other findings, we observe that stylistic, structural, and functional features of preferred spreadsheets vary substantially across use cases, and expert evaluations of spreadsheets for finance prompts suggests that even highly ranked arena models do not reliably produce spreadsheets aligned with domain-specific best practices. Our hope is that our work prompts further study of end-to-end spreadsheet generation as a challenging and interesting category of complex, open-ended tasks for LLMs. Our live arena is hosted at https://spreadsheetarena.ai.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Shaden Alshammari, Kevin Wen, Abrar Zainal, Mark Hamilton, Navid Safaei, Albarakati, William Freeman, Antonio Torralba

Mathematical problem solving remains a challenging test of reasoning for large language and multimodal models, yet existing benchmarks are limited in size, language coverage, and task diversity. We introduce **MathNet**, a high-quality, large-scale, multimodal, and multilingual dataset of Olympiad-level math problems together with a benchmark for evaluating mathematical reasoning in generative models and mathematical retrieval in embedding-based systems. **MathNet** spans 47 countries, 16 languages, and two decades of competitions, comprising **30,676 expert-authored problems with solutions** across diverse domains. In addition to the core dataset, we construct a retrieval benchmark consisting of mathematically equivalent and structurally similar problem pairs curated by human experts. **MathNet** supports three tasks: (i) mathematical problem solving, (ii) problem retrieval, and (iii) retrieval-augmented problem solving (math RAG). Experimental results show that even state-of-the-art reasoning models (**78.4% for `Gemini-3.1-Pro` and 69.3% for `GPT-5`**) remain challenged, while embedding models struggle to retrieve equivalent problems. We further show that RAG performance is highly sensitive to retrieval quality; for example, `DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale` achieves gains of up to **12%**, obtaining the highest scores on the benchmark. **MathNet** provides the largest high-quality Olympiad dataset together with the first benchmark for evaluating mathematical problem retrieval, and we publicly release both the dataset and benchmark at [https://mathnet.mit.edu](https://mathnet.csail.mit.edu).