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Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Alan Lahoud, Erik Schaffernicht, Johannes Andreas Stork

Learning representations for solutions of constrained optimization problems (COPs) with unknown cost functions is challenging, as models like (Variational) Autoencoders struggle to enforce constraints when decoding structured outputs. We propose an Inverse Optimization Latent Variable Model (IO-LVM) that learns a latent space of COP cost functions from observed solutions and reconstructs feasible outputs by solving a COP with a solver in the loop. Our approach leverages estimated gradients of a Fenchel-Young loss through a non-differentiable deterministic solver to shape the latent space. Unlike standard Inverse Optimization or Inverse Reinforcement Learning methods, which typically recover a single or context-specific cost function, IO-LVM captures a distribution over cost functions, enabling the identification of diverse solution behaviors arising from different agents or conditions not available during the training process. We validate our method on real-world datasets of ship and taxi routes, as well as paths in synthetic graphs, demonstrating its ability to reconstruct paths and cycles, predict their distributions, and yield interpretable latent representations.

Applications

Zeting Chen, Xinyu Cai, Molei Qin, Bo An

Options markets represent one of the most sophisticated segments of the financial ecosystem, with prices that directly reflect market uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce the first reinforcement learning (RL) framework specifically designed for volatility trading through options, focusing on profit from the difference between implied volatility and realized volatility. Our multi-agent architecture consists of an Option Position Agent (OP-Agent) responsible for volatility timing by controlling long/short volatility positions, and a Hedger Routing Agent (HR-Agent) that manages risk and maximizes path-dependent profits by selecting optimal hedging strategies with different risk preferences. Evaluating our approach using cryptocurrency options data from 2021-2024, we demonstrate superior performance on BTC and ETH, significantly outperforming traditional strategies and machine learning baselines across all profit and risk-adjusted metrics while exhibiting sophisticated trading behavior. The code framework and sample data of this paper have been released on https://github.com/Edwicn/OPHR-MasteringVolatilityTradingwithMultiAgentDeepReinforcementLearning

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Jongyeong Lee, Junya Honda, Shinji Ito, Min-hwan Oh

Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) policies have achieved Best-of-Both-Worlds (BOBW) results in various settings through hybrid regularizers, whereas analogous results for Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) remain limited due to inherent analytical challenges. To advance the analytical foundations of FTPL, we revisit classical FTRL-FTPL duality for unbounded perturbations and establish BOBW results for FTPL under a broad family of asymmetric unbounded Fréchet-type perturbations, including hybrid perturbations combining Gumbel-type and Fréchet-type tails. These results not only extend the BOBW results of FTPL but also offer new insights into designing alternative FTPL policies competitive with hybrid regularization approaches. Motivated by earlier observations in two-armed bandits, we further investigate the connection between the $1/2$-Tsallis entropy and a Fréchet-type perturbation. Our numerical observations suggest that it corresponds to a symmetric Fréchet-type perturbation, and based on this, we establish the first BOBW guarantee for symmetric unbounded perturbations in the two-armed setting. In contrast, in general multi-armed bandits, we find an instance in which symmetric Fréchet-type perturbations violate the standard condition for BOBW analysis, which is a problem not observed with asymmetric or nonnegative Fréchet-type perturbations. Although this example does not rule out alternative analyses achieving BOBW results, it suggests the limitations of directly applying the relationship observed in two-armed cases to the general case and thus emphasizes the need for further investigation to fully understand the behavior of FTPL in broader settings.

Applications · Robotics

Yiyuan Pan, Yunzhe XU, Zhe Liu, Hesheng Wang

Visual navigation is a fundamental problem in embodied AI, yet practical deployments demand long-horizon planning capabilities to address multi-objective tasks. A major bottleneck is data scarcity: policies learned from limited data often overfit and fail to generalize OOD. Existing neural network-based agents typically increase architectural complexity that paradoxically become counterproductive in the small-sample regime. This paper introduce NeuRO, a integrated learning-to-optimize framework that tightly couples perception networks with downstream task-level robust optimization. Specifically, NeuRO addresses core difficulties in this integration: (i) it transforms noisy visual predictions under data scarcity into convex uncertainty sets using Partially Input Convex Neural Networks (PICNNs) with conformal calibration, which directly parameterize the optimization constraints; and (ii) it reformulates planning under partial observability as a robust optimization problem, enabling uncertainty-aware policies that transfer across environments. Extensive experiments on both unordered and sequential multi-object navigation tasks demonstrate that NeuRO establishes SoTA performance, particularly in generalization to unseen environments. Our work thus presents a significant advancement for developing robust, generalizable autonomous agents.

Jiawei Huang, Minming Li, Hu Ding

Deep learning models often struggle with distribution shifts between training and deployment environments. Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) offers a promising framework by optimizing worst-case performance over a set of candidate distributions, which is called as the \emph{uncertainty set}. However, the efficacy of DRO heavily depends on the design of uncertainty set, and existing methods often perform suboptimally due to inappropriate and inflexible uncertainty sets. In this work, we first propose a novel perspective that casts entropy-regularized Wasserstein DRO as a dynamic process of distributional exploration and semantic alignment, both driven by optimal transport (OT). This unified viewpoint yields two key new techniques: \emph{semantic calibration}, which bootstraps semantically meaningful transport costs via inverse OT, and \emph{adaptive refinement}, which adjusts uncertainty set using OT-driven feedback. Together, these components form an exploration-and-feedback system, where the transport costs and uncertainty set evolve jointly during training, enabling the model to better adapt to potential distribution shifts. Moreover, we provide an in-depth analysis on this adaptive process and prove the theoretical convergence guarantee. Finally, we present our experimental results across diverse distribution shift scenarios, which demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art robustness.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Qingyun Chen, Sungjin Im, Ben Moseley, Ryan Milstrey, Chenyang Xu, Ruilong Zhang

$k$-means++ and the related greedy $k$-means++ algorithm are celebrated algorithms that efficiently compute seeds for Lloyd's algorithm. Greedy $k$-means++ is a generalization of $k$-means++ where, in each iteration, a new seed is greedily chosen among multiple $\ell \geq 2$ points sampled, as opposed to a single seed being sampled in $k$-means++. While empirical studies consistently show the superior performance of greedy $k$-means++, making it a preferred method in practice, a discrepancy exists between theory and practice. No theoretical justification currently explains this improved performance. Indeed, the prevailing theory suggests that greedy $k$-means++ exhibits worse performance than $k$-means++ in worst-case scenarios. This paper presents an analysis demonstrating the outperformance of the greedy algorithm compared to $k$-means++ for a natural class of well-separated instances with exponentially decaying distributions, such as Gaussian, specifically when $\ell = \Theta(\log k)$, a common parameter setting in practical applications.

Optimization · Large Scale, Parallel and Distributed

Maximilian Egger, Rawad Bitar, Antonia Wachter-Zeh, Nir Weinberger, Deniz Gunduz

Federated Learning (FL) incurs high communication costs in both uplink and downlink. The literature largely focuses on lossy compression of model updates in deterministic FL. In contrast, stochastic (Bayesian) FL considers distributions over parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification, better generalization, and, crucially, inherent communication-regularized training through a mirror-descent structure. In this paper, we consider both uplink and downlink communication in stochastic FL, and propose a communication framework based on remote source generation. Employing Minimal Random Coding (MRC) for remote generation, we allow the server and the clients to sample from local and global posteriors (sources), respectively, rather than transmitting locally sampled updates. The framework encompasses communication-regularized local optimization and principled compression of model updates, leveraging gradually updated prior distributions as side information. Through extensive simulations, we show that our method achieves $5-32\times$ reduction in total communication cost while preserving accuracy. We further analyze the communication cost, refining existing MRC bounds and enabling precise quantification of uplink and downlink trade-offs. We also extend our method to conventional FL via stochastic quantization and prove a contraction property for the biased MRC compressor to facilitate convergence analysis.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Hany Abdulsamad, Sahel Mohammad Iqbal, Simo Sarkka

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for continuous partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that explicitly addresses this challenge. Our method casts policy learning as probabilistic inference in a non-Markovian Feynman--Kac model that inherently captures the value of information gathering by anticipating future observations, without requiring suboptimal approximations or handcrafted heuristics. To optimize policies under this model, we develop a nested sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that efficiently estimates a history-dependent policy gradient under samples from the optimal trajectory distribution induced by the POMDP. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across standard continuous POMDP benchmarks, where existing methods struggle to act under uncertainty.

Computer Vision · Classification and Understanding

Jiahang Zhang, Lilang Lin, Shuai Yang, Jiaying Liu

3D human motion-text retrieval is essential for accurate motion understanding, targeted at cross-modal alignment learning. Existing methods typically align the global motion-text concepts directly, suffering from sub-optimal generalization due to the uncertainty of correspondence learning between multiple motion concepts coupled in a single motion/text sequence. Therefore, we study the explicit fine-grained concept decomposition for alignment learning and present a novel framework, Structural Generative Augmentation for 3D Human Motion Retrieval (SGAR), to enable generation-augmented retrieval. Specifically, relying on the strong priors of existing large language model (LLM) assets, we effectively decompose human motions structurally into subtler semantic units, \ie, body parts, for fine-grained motion modeling. Based on this, we develop part-mixture learning to better decouple the local motion concept learning, boosting part-level alignment. Moreover, a directional relation alignment strategy exploiting the correspondence between full-body and part motions is incorporated to regularize feature manifold for better consistency. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks, including motion-text retrieval as well as recognition and generation applications, demonstrate the superior performance and promising transferability of our method.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Abhishek Roy, Geelon So, Yian Ma

In multi-objective optimization, a single decision vector must balance the trade-offs across many objectives. Pareto-optimal solutions are those achieving optimal trade-offs, where improving any objective comes at a cost to another. As many different decisions can be Pareto optimal, this raises the question of which solution to pick and how. We formulate this problem as one of optimizing a preference function over the set of Pareto-optimal solutions, or Pareto-constrained optimization for short. It poses significant challenges: not only is the constraint set defined implicitly, but it is also generally non-convex and non-smooth, even when the objectives are strongly convex. We propose an equivalent formulation of the problem where the constraint set is the simplex, leading to clearer notions of optimality and stationarity that improve upon existing definitions in literature. We give an algorithm with a last-iterate convergence rate of $O(K^{-1/2})$ to stationarity when the preference function is Lipschitz smooth and when the objective functions are strongly convex and Lipschitz smooth. Motivated by applications like Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), we also extend this algorithm to the case where access to the preference function is only available through dueling feedback.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Shaocong Ma, Heng Huang

In financial applications, reinforcement learning (RL) agents are commonly trained on historical data, where their actions do not influence prices. However, during deployment, these agents trade in live markets where their own transactions can shift asset prices, a phenomenon known as market impact. This mismatch between training and deployment environments can significantly degrade performance. Traditional robust RL approaches address this model misspecification by optimizing the worst-case performance over a set of uncertainties, but typically rely on symmetric structures that fail to capture the directional nature of market impact. To address this issue, we develop a novel class of elliptic uncertainty sets. We establish both implicit and explicit closed-form solutions for the worst-case uncertainty under these sets, enabling efficient and tractable robust policy evaluation. Experiments on single-asset and multi-asset trading tasks demonstrate that our method achieves superior Sharpe ratio and remains robust under increasing trade volumes, offering a more faithful and scalable approach to RL in financial markets.

Deep Learning · Robustness

Shixin Li, Zewei Li, Xiaojing Ma, Xiaofan Bai, Pingyi Hu, Dongmei Zhang, Bin Zhu

Adversarial examples crafted on one model often exhibit poor transferability to others, hindering their effectiveness in black-box settings. This limitation arises from two key factors: (i) \emph{decision-boundary variation} across models and (ii) \emph{representation drift} in feature space. We address these challenges through a new perspective that frames transferability for \emph{untargeted attacks} as a \emph{consensus-robust optimization} problem: adversarial perturbations should remain effective across a neighborhood of plausible target models. To model this uncertainty, we introduce two complementary perturbation channels: a \emph{parameter channel}, capturing boundary shifts via weight perturbations, and a \emph{representation channel}, addressing feature drift via stochastic blending of clean and adversarial activations. We then propose \emph{CORTA} (COnsensus--Robust Transfer Attack), a lightweight attack instantiated from this robust formulation using two first-order strategies: (i) sensitivity regularization based on the squared Frobenius norm of logits’ Jacobian with respect to weights, and (ii) Monte Carlo sampling for blended feature representations. Our theoretical analysis provides a certified lower bound linking these approximations to the robust objective. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet show that CORTA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art transfer-based methods---including ensemble approaches---across CNN and Vision Transformer targets. Notably, CORTA achieves a \emph{19.1 percentage-point gain in transfer success rate over the best prior method} while using only a single surrogate model.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

WEI-KAI CHANG, Rajiv Khanna

As deep learning models continue to scale, the growing computational demands have amplified the need for effective coreset selection techniques. Coreset selection aims to accelerate training by identifying small, representative subsets of data that approximate the performance of the full dataset. Among various approaches, gradient-based methods stand out due to their strong theoretical underpinnings and practical benefits, particularly under limited data budgets. However, these methods face challenges such as naïve stochastic gradient descent (SGD) acting as a surprisingly strong baseline and the breakdown of representativeness due to loss curvature mismatches over time. In this work, we propose a novel framework that addresses these limitations. First, we establish a connection between posterior sampling and loss landscapes, enabling robust coreset selection even in high-data-corruption scenarios. Second, we introduce a smoothed loss function based on posterior sampling onto the model weights, enhancing stability and generalization while maintaining computational efficiency. We also present a novel convergence analysis for our sampling-based coreset selection method. Finally, through extensive experiments, we demonstrate how our approach achieves faster training and enhanced generalization across diverse datasets than the current state of the art.

General Machine Learning · Causality

Zirui Yan, Emre Acartürk, Ali Tajer

Causal representation learning (CRL) is the process of disentangling the *latent* low-dimensional causally-related generating factors underlying high-dimensional observable data. Extensive recent studies have characterized CRL identifiability and *perfect* recovery of the latent variables and their attendant causal graph. This paper introduces the notion of *reward-oriented* CRL, the purpose of which is to move away from perfectly learning the latent representation and instead learning it to the extent needed for optimizing a desired downstream task (reward). In reward-oriented CRL, perfectly learning the latent representation can be excessive; instead, it must be learned at the *coarsest* level sufficient for optimizing the desired task. Reward-oriented CRL is formalized as the optimization of a desired function of the observable data over the space of all possible interventions and focuses on linear causal and transformation models. To sequentially identify the optimal subset of interventions, an adaptive exploration algorithm is designed that learns the latent causal graph and the variables needed to identify the best intervention. It is shown that for an $n$-dimensional latent space and a $d$-dimensional observation space, over a horizon $T$ the algorithm's regret scales as $\tilde O(d^{\frac{1}{3}}n^{\frac{1}{3}}u^{\frac{2}{3}}T^{\frac{2}{3}} + u\sqrt{T})$, where $u$ measures total uncertainty in the graph estimates. Furthermore, an almost-matching lower bound is shown to scale as $\Omega(d^{\frac{1}{3}}n^{\frac{1}{3}}p^{\frac{2}{3}}T^{\frac{2}{3}} + p\sqrt{T})$, in which $u$ is replaced by $p$ that counts the number of causal paths in the graph.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Lu Xu, Tsai Hor Chan, Lequan Yu, Kwok Lam, Guosheng Yin

Density estimation is essential for generative modeling, particularly with the rise of modern neural networks. While existing methods capture complex data distributions, they often lack interpretability and uncertainty quantification. Bayesian nonparametric methods, especially the \polya tree, offer a robust framework that addresses these issues by accurately capturing function behavior over small intervals. Traditional techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) face high computational complexity and scalability limitations, hindering the use of Bayesian nonparametric methods in deep learning. To tackle this, we introduce the variational \polya tree (VPT) model, which employs stochastic variational inference to compute posterior distributions. This model provides a flexible, nonparametric Bayesian prior that captures latent densities and works well with stochastic gradient optimization. We also leverage the joint distribution likelihood for a more precise variational posterior approximation than traditional mean-field methods. We evaluate the model performance on both real data and images, and demonstrate its competitiveness with other state-of-the-art deep density estimation methods. We also explore its ability in enhancing interpretability and uncertainty quantification. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/howardchanth/var-polya-tree}.

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Pratik Rathore, Zachary Frangella, Sachin Garg, Shaghayegh Fazliani, Michal Derezinski, Madeleine Udell

Gaussian processes (GPs) play an essential role in biostatistics, scientific machine learning, and Bayesian optimization for their ability to provide probabilistic predictions and model uncertainty. However, GP inference struggles to scale to large datasets (which are common in modern applications), since it requires the solution of a linear system whose size scales quadratically with the number of samples in the dataset. We propose an approximate, distributed, accelerated sketch-and-project algorithm ($\texttt{ADASAP}$) for solving these linear systems, which improves scalability. We use the theory of determinantal point processes to show that the posterior mean induced by sketch-and-project rapidly converges to the true posterior mean. In particular, this yields the first efficient, condition number-free algorithm for estimating the posterior mean along the top spectral basis functions, showing that our approach is principled for GP inference. $\texttt{ADASAP}$ outperforms state-of-the-art solvers based on conjugate gradient and coordinate descent across several benchmark datasets and a large-scale Bayesian optimization task. Moreover, $\texttt{ADASAP}$ scales to a dataset with $> 3 \cdot 10^8$ samples, a feat which has not been accomplished in the literature.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Jayanta Mandi, Marianne Defresne, Senne Berden, Tias Guns

When some parameters of a constrained optimization problem (COP) are uncertain, this gives rise to a predict-then-optimize (PtO) problem, comprising two stages: the \textit{prediction} of the unknown parameters from contextual information and the subsequent \textit{optimization} using those predicted parameters. Decision-focused learning (DFL) implements the first stage by training a machine learning (ML) model to optimize the quality of the decisions made using the predicted parameters. When the predicted parameters occur in the constraints, they can lead to infeasible solutions. Therefore, it is important to simultaneously manage both feasibility and decision quality. We develop a DFL framework for predicting constraint parameters in a generic COP. While prior works typically assume that the underlying optimization problem is a linear program (LP) or integer LP (ILP), our approach makes no such assumption. We derive two novel loss functions based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE): the first one penalizes infeasibility (by penalizing predicted parameters that lead to infeasible solutions), while the second one penalizes suboptimal decisions (by penalizing predicted parameters that make the true optimal solution infeasible). We introduce a single tunable parameter to form a weighted average of the two losses, allowing decision-makers to balance suboptimality and feasibility. We experimentally demonstrate that adjusting this parameter provides decision-makers control over this trade-off. Moreover, across several COP instances, we show that adjusting the tunable parameter allows a decision-maker to prioritize either suboptimality or feasibility, outperforming the performance of existing baselines in either objective.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Debargha Ganguly, Vikash Singh, Sreehari Sankar, Biyao Zhang, Xuecen Zhang, Srinivasan Iyengar, Xiaotian Han, Amit Sharma, Shivkumar Kalyanaraman, Vipin Chaudhary

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic guarantees. This paper addresses this epistemological gap by comprehensively investigating failure modes and uncertainty quantification (UQ) in LLM-generated formal artifacts. Our systematic evaluation of five frontier LLMs reveals Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) based autoformalization's domain-specific impact on accuracy (from +34.8\% on logical tasks to -44.5\% on factual ones), with known UQ techniques like the entropy of token probabilities failing to identify these errors. We introduce a probabilistic context-free grammar (PCFG) framework to model LLM outputs, yielding a refined uncertainty taxonomy. We find uncertainty signals are task-dependent (e.g., grammar entropy for logic, AUROC>0.93). Finally, a lightweight fusion of these signals enables selective verification, drastically reducing errors (14-100\%) with minimal abstention, transforming LLM-driven formalization into a reliable engineering discipline.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Daniel Ovalle, Lorenz Biegler, Ignacio Grossmann, Carl Laird, Mateo Dulce Rubio

We propose Conformal Mixed-Integer Constraint Learning (C-MICL), a novel framework that provides probabilistic feasibility guarantees for data-driven constraints in optimization problems. While standard Mixed-Integer Constraint Learning methods often violate the true constraints due to model error or data limitations, our C-MICL approach leverages conformal prediction to ensure feasible solutions are ground-truth feasible with probability at least $1{-}\alpha$, under a conditional independence assumption. The proposed framework supports both regression and classification tasks without requiring access to the true constraint function, while avoiding the scalability issues associated with ensemble-based heuristics. Experiments on real-world applications demonstrate that C-MICL consistently achieves target feasibility rates, maintains competitive objective performance, and significantly reduces computational cost compared to existing methods. Our work bridges mathematical optimization and machine learning, offering a principled approach to incorporate uncertainty-aware constraints into decision-making with rigorous statistical guarantees.

Theory · Domain Adaptation and Transfer Learning

JaeYun Lee, Jae Hyeon Park, Gyoomin Lee, Bogyeong Kim, Min Hee Cha, Hyeok Nam, Joo Jeon, Hyunse Lee, Sung In Cho

Source-free domain adaptation (SFDA) aims to adapt a pre-trained source model to an unlabeled target domain without requiring labeled source data. In a self supervised setting, relying on pseudo labels on target domain samples facilitates the domain adaptation performance providing strong supervision. However, a critical problem of this approach is the inherent instability of the pre-trained source model in the target domain, leading to unreliable pseudo labels for the target domain data. To tackle this, we propose a novel Dual-perspective pseudo labeling strategy that jointly leverages a task-specific perspective and a domain-invariant perspective, assigning pseudo labels only to target samples on which the target model’s predictions and CLIP’s predictions agree. To further enhance representation learning without introducing noisy supervision, we apply consistency training to uncertain samples. Additionally, we introduce a Tsallis mutual information(TMI)-based vision optimization strategy guided by an Uncertainty-based adaptation index (UAI), which dynamically modulates entropy sensitivity based on the model’s adaptation uncertainty. The UAI-based training paradigm enables stable and adaptive domain alignment by effectively balancing exploration and exploitation processes during the optimization process. Our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance on domain adaptation benchmark datasets, improving adaptation accuracy by 1.6% on Office-Home, 1.4% on VisDA-C, and 2.9% on DomainNet-126, demonstrating its effectiveness in SFDA. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/l3umblee/duet-sfda.