论文检索

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Leon Götz, Marcel Kollovieh, Stephan Günnemann, Leo Schwinn

Existing time series tokenization methods predominantly encode a constant number of samples into individual tokens. This inflexible approach can generate excessive tokens for even simple patterns like extended constant values, resulting in substantial computational overhead. Inspired by the success of byte pair encoding, we propose the first pattern-centric tokenization scheme for time series analysis. Based on a discrete vocabulary of frequent motifs, our method merges samples with underlying patterns into tokens, compressing time series adaptively. Exploiting our finite set of motifs and the continuous properties of time series, we further introduce conditional decoding as a lightweight yet powerful post-hoc optimization method, which requires no gradient computation and adds no computational overhead. On recent time series foundation models, our motif-based tokenization improves forecasting performance by 36% and boosts efficiency by 1990% on average. Conditional decoding further reduces MSE by up to 44%. In an extensive analysis, we demonstrate the adaptiveness of our tokenization to diverse temporal patterns, its generalization to unseen data, and its meaningful token representations capturing distinct time series properties, including statistical moments and trends.

Applications · Computer Vision

Xinpeng Zhao, Jiang Jie, Fengyuan Zhang, Lixin Zhan, Dong Wang, Qinyuan Bu, Jiahangtu, Guangzhen Yao

Open-vocabulary 3D scene understanding answers free-form text queries over reconstructed scenes. However, lifting dense 2D foundation-model embeddings into 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) is still challenging. Existing 3DGS-based methods often average normalized embeddings in Euclidean space. This ignores their hyperspherical geometry and can cause feature collapse. They also distill supervision from all views equally, which amplifies occlusion noise and mixed-depth artifacts. We propose **Rh-3DGS**, a robust semantic 3DGS framework that uses reliability-aware distillation and manifold-consistent aggregation. **Visibility-Calibrated Distillation (VCD)** computes per-pixel reliability weights from rasterization statistics and down-weights ambiguous pixels. **Visibility-Weighted Fréchet Mean (VFM)** aggregates embeddings on the unit hypersphere with a Riemannian Huber objective for robust distillation. **Lightweight Consistency Contrast (LIC)** regularizes the 3D semantic field with neighborhood-based multi-positive contrast to improve local consistency and sharper boundaries. Experiments on three benchmarks show that Rh-3DGS is best on open-vocabulary segmentation, boundary quality, and view-consistent rendering.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Nathan Hittesdorf, Marco Salzetta, Lu Cheng

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in critical applications. Conformal Prediction (CP) addresses this by calibrating error rates on held-out data to provide statistically valid confidence guarantees. Recent work extends CP to LLM factuality: outputs are decomposed into subclaims, each assigned a risk score, and a calibrated threshold filters out risky claims to guarantee hallucination rates below a user-specified level (e.g., 10%). While prior methods treat claims independently, Coherent Factuality extends to multi-step reasoning by representing outputs as dependency graphs and jointly validating claims with their logical ancestors. A key limitation is that Coherent Factuality is not differentiable, requiring hand-crafted scorers that at high reliability levels remove nearly 60% of true claims. We introduce Differentiable Coherent Factuality (DCF), a fully differentiable relaxation that enables learning improved scorers while provably recovering the original algorithm's guarantees. Experiments on two reasoning datasets demonstrate DCF achieves up to 141% improvement in claim retention while maintaining reliability guarantees, representing a significant step towards reliable conformal LLM systems.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Liang Peng, Deqing Li, Yujia Wu, Hao Meng, Kuan Cao, Yu Wu, Xiaoxiao Xu, Lin Qu

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) is a cornerstone of flow-matching models, significantly enhancing visual quality and prompt adherence. However, high guidance scales inherently violate the optimal transport dynamics, leading to visual artifacts and mode collapse. In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms of this failure through the lens of velocity moment decomposition. Our analysis reveals that the distributional shift induced by CFG decouples into two geometric components: a Linear Barycentric Drift that shifts the global distribution center, and a Quadratic Energetic Instability that injects surplus kinetic energy, disrupting the transport cost and triggering variance explosion. To mitigate these issues, we introduce MIST (Moment-aligned Invariant Stability Transform), a training-free method designed to confine the sampling trajectory to the learned data manifold. MIST comprises two hierarchical stages: (1) Invariant Alignment (IA), a global statistical rectifier that restores structural integrity by removing the linear drift and realigning the energy profile; and (2) Stability Thresholding (ST), a local dynamical regulator that enforces Lipschitz-like smoothness via temporal decay and spatial suppression. MIST enables robust, high-fidelity generation across a wide range of guidance scales while consistently improving performance at moderate scales. Extensive experiments on diverse text-to-image and text-to-video benchmarks demonstrate that MIST outperforms standard CFG and state-of-the-art corrections, establishing a new benchmark for robust guidance in flow-based generative models.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Bernardo Ávila Pires, Mark Rowland, Diana Borsa, Zhaohan Guo, Khimya Khetarpal, Andre Barreto, David Abel, R{{\'e}}mi Munos, Will Dabney

We introduce distributional dynamic programming (DP) methods for optimizing statistical functionals of the return distribution, with standard reinforcement learning as a special case. Previous distributional DP methods could optimize the same class of expected utilities as classic DP. To go beyond, we combine distributional DP with stock augmentation, a technique previously introduced for classic DP in the context of risk-sensitive RL, where the MDP state is augmented with a statistic of the rewards obtained since the first time step. We find that a number of recently studied problems can be formulated as stock-augmented return distribution optimization, and we show that we can use distributional DP to solve them. We analyze distributional value and policy iteration, with bounds and a study of what objectives these distributional DP methods can or cannot optimize. We describe a number of applications outlining how to use distributional DP to solve different stock-augmented return distribution optimization problems, for example maximizing conditional value-at-risk, and homeostatic regulation. To highlight the practical potential of stock-augmented return distribution optimization and distributional DP, we introduce an agent that combines DQN and the core ideas of distributional DP, and empirically evaluate it for solving instances of the applications discussed.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

James Cuin, Davide Carbone, Yanbo Tang, O. Akyildiz

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation methods for this class of problems typically require inner sampling loops to obtain (biased) stochastic gradient estimates, which rapidly becomes computationally expensive. In this work, we develop sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers for optimisation of functions with intractable gradients. Our approach replaces expensive inner sampling methods with efficient SMC approximations, which can result in significant computational gains. We establish convergence results for the basic recursions defined by our methodology which SMC samplers approximate. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on the reward-tuning of energy-based models within various settings.

Theory · Learning Theory

Jiaolong Wang, Fode Zhang, Lingrui Wang

Reliable estimation of Amari $\alpha$-divergences underpins variational inference, yet unconstrained neural critics are notoriously prone to instability. We propose a scalable estimator by constraining the critic to a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) ball and approximating the kernel via band-limited Random Fourier Features (RFF). This formulation yields a linear-time objective amenable to mini-batch stochastic optimization while avoiding the cubic complexity of Gram-matrix methods. We present a unified analysis based on a four-term error decomposition—comprising RKHS approximation, feature discretization, statistical deviation, and optimization residual. Under a spectral source condition, we derive non-asymptotic bounds establishing that the RKHS approximation bias scales as $\mathcal{O}(R^{-\gamma})$, the RFF discretization error as $\mathcal{O}(R D^{-1/2})$, and the statistical error as $\mathcal{O}(R n^{-1/2})$. We further show that statistical non-degeneracy induces intrinsic local curvature, enabling our proposed Armijo-SGD to achieve local linear convergence. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the RFF-RKHS estimator outperforms varying-representation baselines in stability, and applying this spectral regularization to GAN critics significantly enhances the capture of high-frequency data components.

Applications · Health / Medicine

Ziyuan Gao

Medical image segmentation faces a fundamental challenge in continual learning: data arrives sequentially from heterogeneous sources, yet effective continual learning requires discovering which tasks share sufficient structure to benefit from joint learning. Existing methods either apply uniform constraints across all tasks, causing catastrophic forgetting when tasks conflict, or require predefined task groupings that cannot anticipate future task diversity. We introduce MedCRP-CL, a framework that performs online task structure discovery and structure-aware continual learning. Leveraging the Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP), our method dynamically infers task groupings from clinical text prompts as tasks arrive, without requiring predefined cluster counts or access to future tasks. We term these discovered groupings semantic modalities, as they capture finer-grained structure than physical imaging modalities by integrating anatomical region and pathological context. Guided by this discovered structure, we maintain semantic modality-specific LoRA adapters regularized by intra-modality EWC, ensuring parameter isolation across dissimilar task groups while facilitating knowledge transfer within similar ones. The framework is also replay-free, storing only aggregate statistics rather than raw patient data. Experiments on 16 medical segmentation tasks across four imaging modalities demonstrate that MedCRP-CL achieves 73.3\% Dice score with only 4.1\% forgetting, outperforming the best baseline by 8.0\% while requiring 6$\times$ fewer parameters. Code is provided as supplemental material for review and will be publicly released upon acceptance.

Applications · Computer Vision

Xiao Cui, Yulei Qin, Mo Zhu, Wengang Zhou, Hongsheng Li, Houqiang Li

Dataset condensation aims to construct compact datasets from real data via synthesis or selection. However, existing approaches are ill-suited for diffusion model training: synthetic data generation often yields low-fidelity samples unsuitable for authentic modeling, while real subset selection typically fails to preserve the distributional geometry required by diffusion likelihood objectives. To address this, we propose to reformulate real subset selection as a geometry-aware distribution alignment problem. By incorporating one-sided partial optimal transport, our method selectively aligns a compact subset with the full data distribution while allowing unmatched mass in low-density regions, ensuring the preserved geometric structure necessary for effective diffusion model training. To further ensure distributional fidelity, we complement geometric alignment with lightweight feature-statistics and semantic consistency regularization. An efficient two-stage discrete optimization strategy is proposed to achieve this alignment objective. Extensive experiments across diffusion variants, subset sizes, image resolutions, and training rounds show that our approach achieves superior fidelity and distributional coverage in diffusion model training. Codes are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ICML2026_4092.

Ting Xu, Xu He, Yupu Lu, Jiankai Sun, Dong Li, Wai Lam, Jianye Hao

This paper investigates the entropy dynamics of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and uncovers a consistent two-phase structure: an ***Uncertainty Region*** of exploration transitioning sharply to a ***Confidence Region*** of convergence. We demonstrate that the Confidence Region possesses two critical properties: 1) ***High Reliability***—answers in confidence region become highly accurate and stable, and 2) ***High Redundancy***—models generate unnecessary tokens long after reaching the correct answer. These properties unlock more efficient and reliable inference strategies: 1) ***Early Exit*** leverages reliability and redundancy to terminate computation safely when returns diminish, and 2) ***Test-Time Scaling*** uses the Confidence Region signal to prioritize converged trajectories. To operationalize these insights, we formulate Confidence Region detection as a sequential change-point detection problem, being the first to apply classical change-point methods to monitor CoT reasoning. Using the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm, a statistically optimal change-point detector, we develop a training-free framework for real-time inference control. Experiments show our approach establishes a superior Pareto-frontier for early exit. CUSUM achieves 63.06% accuracy with 11.1% token reduction, outperforming DEER and Dynasor by 3.28% and 4.36% in accuracy respectively. For test-time scaling, CUSUM-weighted voting consistently outperforms self-consistency.

General Machine Learning · Causality

Kiet Vo, Gowtham Reddy Abbavaram, Julian Rodemann, Siu Lun Chau, Krikamol Muandet

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) under strategic behavior where decision subjects (or agents) respond to a decision maker's policy by strategically modifying their covariates. Such behavior induces a policy-dependent covariate shift, breaking the standard assumption in existing methods that covariates are exogenous to the policy. Related work addresses this challenge by imposing strong assumptions such as repeated interactions or full knowledge of agents’ response behavior, substantially limiting its applicability to OPE. In contrast, we consider a one-shot OPE setting where the decision maker has only partial knowledge of the agents' response behavior. Our key insight is that disclosing local information through post-hoc explanations reveals agents’ pre-strategic covariates prior to adaptation, mitigating the information loss induced by strategic behavior. Leveraging this structure, we estimate a statistical model for the agents’ responses and construct a doubly robust estimator for policy value. By assuming that the agents' cost sensitivity follows a conditional log-normal distribution, we establish consistency of the proposed estimator and validate our approach empirically. More broadly, our results highlight how interaction design can mitigate information asymmetry by revealing otherwise hidden structure in agents' strategic responses.

Social Aspects · Accountability, Transparency, and Interpretability

Pierre Fernandez, Tom Sander, Hady Elsahar, Hongyan Chang, Tomáš Souček, Valeriu Lacatusu, Tuan Tran, Sylvestre-Alvise Rebuffi, Alexandre Mourachko

Generation-time text watermarking embeds statistical signals into text for traceability of AI-generated content. We explore post-hoc watermarking where an LLM rewrites existing text while applying generation-time watermarking, to protect copyrighted documents, or detect their use in training or RAG via watermark radioactivity. Unlike generation-time approaches which are constrained by how LLMs are served, this setting offers additional degrees of freedom for both generation and detection. We thus investigate how allocating compute (through larger rephrasing models, beam search, multi-candidate generation, or entropy filtering at detection) affects the quality-detectability trade-off. Among our findings, the simple Gumbel-max scheme surprisingly outperforms more recent alternatives under nucleus sampling, and achieves strong detectability and semantic fidelity on open-ended text such as books. Moreover, most methods benefit significantly from beam search, and we counterintuitively find that smaller models outperform larger ones. However, our solutions struggles when watermarking verifiable text such as code. This study reveals both the potential and limitations of post-hoc watermarking, laying groundwork for practical applications and future research.

General Machine Learning · Unsupervised and Semi-supervised Learning

Simon Roschmann, Paul KRZAKALA, Sonia Mazelet, Quentin Bouniot, Zeynep Akata

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis posits that neural networks trained on different modalities converge toward a shared statistical model of the world. Recent work exploits this convergence by aligning frozen pretrained vision and language models with lightweight alignment layers, but typically relies on contrastive losses and millions of paired samples. In this work, we ask whether meaningful alignment can be achieved with substantially less supervision. We introduce a semi-supervised setting in which pretrained unimodal encoders are aligned using a small number of image–text pairs together with large amounts of unpaired data. To address this challenge, we propose SOTAlign, a two-stage framework that first recovers a coarse shared geometry from limited paired data using a linear teacher, then refines the alignment on unpaired samples via an optimal-transport-based divergence that transfers relational structure without overconstraining the target space. Unlike existing semi-supervised methods, SOTAlign effectively leverages unpaired images and text, learning robust joint embeddings across datasets and encoder pairs, and significantly outperforming supervised and semi-supervised baselines.

General Machine Learning · Causality

Kenneth Lee, Zihan Zhou, Murat Kocaoglu

Modern cloud systems rely on architectures with many interconnected microservices, which enable scalability and flexibility but make troubleshooting failures difficult. Identifying the root cause requires navigating complex dependencies, often beyond the capacity of domain experts. Causal models offer a principled approach to root cause analysis (RCA), but prior methods are typically sample inefficient, as they assume access to the full causal graph or require large numbers of post-failure interventions. We introduce Bayesian Root Cause Discovery (BRCD), which leverages a partial causal structure (a CPDAG learned during the pre-failure period) and performs Bayesian inference without enumerating all DAGs from each interventional Markov equivalence class ($\mathcal{I}$-MEC) for each root cause candidate. Using a recent uniform DAG sampling framework (Wienöbst et al., 2023), BRCD provides the first statistical consistency guarantees for nonparametric RCA, with both identifiability and finite-sample posterior bounds under $\varepsilon$-vanishing approximation. Empirically, across synthetic benchmarks and three microservice systems (Online Boutique, Sockshop, Petshop), BRCD achieves state-of-the-art top-$l$ accuracy while remaining effective in low-failure-sample regimes and scaling to large graphs.

General Machine Learning · Kernel methods

Anirban Chatterjee, Sayantan Choudhury, Rohan Hore

How can we generate samples from a conditional distribution that we never fully observe? This question arises across a broad range of applications in both modern machine learning and classical statistics, including image post-processing in computer vision, approximate posterior sampling in simulation-based inference, and conditional distribution modeling in complex data settings. In such settings, compared with unconditional sampling, additional feature information can be leveraged to enable more adaptive and efficient sampling. Building on this, we introduce Conditional Generator using MMD (CGMMD), a novel framework for conditional sampling. Unlike many contemporary approaches, our method frames the training objective as a simple, adversary-free direct minimization problem. A key feature of CGMMD is its ability to produce conditional samples in a single forward pass of the generator, enabling practical one-shot sampling with low test-time complexity. We establish rigorous theoretical bounds on the loss incurred when sampling from the CGMMD sampler, and prove convergence of the estimated distribution to the true conditional distribution. In the process, we also develop a uniform concentration result for nearest-neighbor based functionals, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we show that CGMMD performs competitively on synthetic tasks involving complex conditional densities, as well as on practical applications such as image denoising and image super-resolution.

Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences

Badr MOUFAD, Albina Ilina, Hai Victor Habi, Salem Lahlou, Yazid Janati, HAGIT MESSER, Eric Moulines

Commercial Microwave Links (CMLs) offer dense spatial coverage for rainfall sensing but produce path-integrated measurements that make accurate ground-level reconstruction challenging. Existing methods typically oversimplify CMLs as point sensors and neglect the physical power-law relating rainfall to signal attenuation, resulting in degraded performance under heterogeneous precipitation. In this work, we view rain field reconstruction as a Bayesian inverse problem with Diffusion Models (DMs) as high-fidelity spatial priors. We show that diffusion models better preserve key rainfall statistics compared to censored Gaussian processes. Framing rainfall estimation as a Bayesian inverse problem with a DM prior enables training-free posterior sampling using a broad family of methods, including Plug-and-Play, Sequential Monte Carlo, and Replica Exchange methods. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over established CML-based reconstruction baselines.

Theory · Probabilistic Methods

Yaniv Tenzer, Elad Tolochinksy, Yaniv Romano

We introduce a testing-by-betting framework that leverages predictions on unlabeled data to enhance the power of sequential hypothesis testing. Given limited samples from the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, and additional unlabeled samples from the marginal of $X$, we ask how unlabeled data can be used to hypothesize about the distribution of $Y$, and the conditional distribution of $Y\mid X$. We introduce an e-statistic and use it to construct a sequential test. Under standard distributional assumptions---label shift or concept shift---we establish that the test is anytime valid. Furthermore, we show that for binary data, the e-statistic has non-trivial power. Crucially, our approach retains these properties even when the underlying predictions are inaccurate. Through simulations and applications to large language models evaluation, we demonstrate power gains over baseline approaches, including prediction-powered inference. These gains persist even with relatively limited unlabeled data and when predictions have low accuracy due to weak correlation between $X$ and $Y$.

Social Aspects · Security

Junxi Chen, Junhao Dong, Xiaohua Xie

Recent work has demonstrated the potential of contrastive steering for jailbreaking Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing methods rely on limited and inherently biased contrastive prompts and require laborious manual tuning of steering strength, limiting their robustness and effectiveness. In this paper, we leverage the idea of model extraction to guide the learned steering vectors to approximate the ideal one and propose tuning the steering strength adaptively based on contrastive activations' statistics. Experiments demonstrate that our method notably improves the effectiveness and robustness of probe-based steering, without any extra contrastive prompts or laborious manual tuning. Being an attack paper, this paper focuses on revealing the breakdown of fortified LLMs, raising the average harmfulness score from 6\% to 70\%.

Theory · Reinforcement Learning and Planning

Debabrota Basu, Udvas Das, Brahim Driss, Uddalak Mukherjee

Post-deployment machine learning algorithms often influence the environments they act in, and thus *shift* the underlying dynamics that the standard reinforcement learning (RL) methods ignore. While designing optimal algorithms in this *performative* setting has recently been studied in supervised learning, the RL counterpart remains under-explored. In this paper, we prove the performative counterparts of the performance difference lemma and the policy gradient theorem in RL, and introduce the **Performative Policy Gradient** algorithm **PePG**. **PePG** is the first policy gradient algorithm designed to account for performativity in RL. Under softmax parametrisation, and also with and without entropy regularisation, we prove that **PePG** converges to *performatively optimal policies*, i.e. policies that remain optimal under the distribution shifts induced by themselves. Thus, **PePG** significantly extends the prior works in Performative RL that achieves *performative stability* but not optimality. Our empirical analysis on standard performative RL environments validate that **PePG** outperforms the existing performative RL algorithms aiming for stability.

Social Aspects · Privacy

Yanming Li, Cédric Eichler, Nicolas Anciaux, Alexandra Bensamoun, Lorena Gonzalez-Manzano, Seifeddine Ghozzi

We propose a system for marking sensitive or copyrighted texts to detect their use in fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) under black-box access with statistical guarantees. Our method builds digital "marks" using invisible Unicode characters organized into ("cue", "reply") pairs. During an audit, prompts containing only "cue" fragments are issued to trigger regurgitation of the corresponding "reply", indicating document usage. To control false positives, we compare against held-out counterfactual marks and apply a ranking test, yielding a verifiable bound on the false positive rate. The approach is minimally invasive, scalable across many sources, robust to standard processing pipelines, and achieves high detection power even when marked data is a small fraction of the fine-tuning corpus.