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2,245篇论文匹配“Statistical Methods”
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Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Xuan-Phi Nguyen, Shrey Pandit, Austin Xu, Caiming Xiong, Shafiq Joty

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models are typically pre-trained with explicit load-balancing constraints to ensure statistically balanced expert routing. Despite this, we observe that even well-trained MoE models exhibit significantly imbalanced routing. This behavior is arguably natural—and even desirable—as imbalanced routing allows models to concentrate domain-specific knowledge within a subset of experts. Expert parallelism (EP) is designed to scale MoE models by distributing experts across multiple devices, but with a less-discussed assumption of balanced routing. Under extreme imbalance, EP can funnel a disproportionate number of tokens to a small number of experts, leading to compute- and memory-bound failures on overloaded devices during post-training or inference, where explicit load balancing is often inapplicable. We propose Least-Loaded Expert Parallelism (LLEP), a novel EP algorithm that dynamically reroutes excess tokens and associated expert parameters from overloaded devices to underutilized ones. This ensures that all devices complete their workloads within the minimum collective latency while respecting memory constraints. Across different model scales, LLEP achieves up to 5x speedup and 4x reduction in peak memory usage compared to standard EP. This enables faster and higher-throughput post-training and inference, with ~1.9x faster for gpt-oss-120b. We support our method with extensive theoretical analysis and comprehensive empirical evaluations, including ablation studies. These results illuminate key trade-offs and enable a principled framework for hardware-specific hyper-parameter tuning to achieve optimal performance.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Wentao Hu, Zeyu Zhu, Mingkuan Zhao, Zhenhua An, Yanbo Zhai, Shanhong yu, Huilin Zhou, Xin Lai, Xiaoyan Zhu, Jiayin Wang

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures scale model capacity efficiently but suffer from massive static parameter footprints, creating significant deployment burdens on memory-constrained hardware. Existing post-training pruning methods often rely on scalar statistics, ignoring the representational geometry of expert feature spaces. This leads to sub-optimal resource allocation across layers and the retention of redundant experts. To address this, we propose a Rank-aware Geometric Expert Pruning (RaGEP) framework to compress MoE models by analyzing the geometric properties of expert activations. First, in the inter-layer allocation stage, we introduce a Rank-aware budget allocation mechanism that adaptively assigns expert budgets based on the effective rank of layer-wise representations. Second, in the intra-layer selection stage, we propose a Spectral-Salience Pruning metric that harmonizes subspace orthogonality and activation magnitude to identify high-energy orthogonal experts. Extensive experiments across MoE models of different scales show that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on a diverse set of zero-shot tasks, while reducing model size and inference cost. Code is available at supplementary material.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Md. Ismail Hossain, M M Lutfe Elahi, Sameera Ramasinghe, Ali Cheraghian, Fuad Rahman, Nabeel Mohammed, Shafin Rahman

In the knowledge distillation literature, feature-based methods have dominated due to their ability to effectively tap into extensive teacher models. In contrast, logit-based approaches, which aim to distill `dark knowledge' from teachers, typically exhibit inferior performance compared to feature-based methods. To bridge this gap, we present LumiNet, a novel knowledge distillation algorithm designed to enhance logit-based distillation. We introduce the concept of `perception', aiming to calibrate logits based on the model's representation capability. This concept addresses overconfidence issues in the logit-based distillation method while also introducing a novel method to distill knowledge from the teacher. It reconstructs the logits of a sample/instances by considering relationships with other samples in the batch. LumiNet excels on benchmarks like CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and MSCOCO, outperforming the leading feature-based methods, e.g., compared to KD with ResNet18 and MobileNetV2 on ImageNet, it shows improvements of 1.5\% and 2.05\%, respectively.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Kwangmin Lee, Yeonhee Park, Sewon Park

Sampling from distributions with bounded supports is a fundamental challenge in constrained statistical inference. Reflective Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (ReHMC) provides a useful sampling approach for this setting. However, it relies on convexity assumptions on the support and lacks non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees such as mixing-time bounds. To bridge this gap, we propose a convex-container plus thinning framework that is applicable to arbitrary target densities with bounded support. We establish the first non-asymptotic total-variation mixing-time bounds for ReHMC, achieving a polynomial dimension dependence of $O(d^2)$ for $L$-smooth targets, though with exponential dependence on smoothness parameters. Under an additional $m$-strong convexity assumption, we derive a sharper bound that eliminates this exponential dependence. We further apply this approach to sampling on the Stiefel manifold via a well-conditioned polar reparameterization and demonstrate improved numerical stability and sampling efficiency in simulation studies.

Jingyang Li, Jian-Feng Cai, Yang Chen, Dong Xia

Large tensor learning algorithms are typically computationally expensive and require storing a vast amount of data. In this paper, we propose a unified online Riemannian gradient descent (oRGrad) algorithm for tensor learning, which is computationally efficient, consumes much less memory, and can handle sequentially arriving data while making timely predictions. The algorithm is applicable to both linear and generalized linear models. If the time horizon T is known, oRGrad achieves statistical optimality by choosing an appropriate fixed step size. We find that noisy tensor completion particularly benefits from online algorithms by avoiding the trimming procedure and ensuring sharp entry-wise statistical error, which is often technically challenging for offline methods. The regret of oRGrad is analyzed, revealing a fascinating trilemma concerning the computational convergence rate, statistical error, and regret bound. By selecting an appropriate constant step size, oRGrad achieves an O(T1/2) regret. We then introduce the adaptive-oRGrad algorithm, which can achieve the optimal O(logT) regret by adaptively selecting step sizes, regardless of whether the time horizon is known. The adaptive-oRGrad algorithm can attain a statistically optimal error rate without knowing the horizon. Comprehensive numerical simulations corroborate our theoretical findings. We show that oRGrad significantly outperforms its offline counterpart in predicting the solar F10.7 index with tensor predictors that monitor space weather impacts.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Sina Mansouri, Mohit Marvania, Abolfazl Safikhani

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) has intensified the demand for principled methods to distinguish human- from machine-generated text. Watermarking provides a promising avenue, yet existing detectors exhibit sharp performance deterioration under multiple paraphrasing and when applied to shorter texts. We introduce Pattern Stability Score (PSS), a novel detection framework that leverages local statistical features and stability dynamics across paraphrased variants. Specifically, the proposed method combines global and local z-score features with higher-order statistics of run-length patterns, enriched by autocorrelation signals and stability scores computed over paraphrase depth. Numerical evaluations are performed on three benchmark datasets (PG-19, CNN/DailyMail, and WikiText) using multiple LLMs (Llama-3-8B, Qwen2-7B) and paraphrasers (Mistral-7B, Qwen2-7B, Gemma-7B), systematically stress-testing robustness under up to eight rounds of paraphrasing. Compared to prior z-score thresholding baselines and some state-of-the-art deep learning methods, our approach improves detection AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) by over 10-15 percentage points across different token lengths. Additionally, extensive cross-domain experiments demonstrate that a single universal classifier generalizes across different LLMs, paraphrasers, and text domains without retraining, maintaining above 83.7\% AUC even when all components differ from training.

Applications · Health / Medicine

Jian Chen, Yipeng Du, Wenhao Yuan, Shuai Wang, Jinfeng Xu, Zewei Liu, Running Zhao, Edith Ngai

Electrocardiogram (ECG) representation learning via ECG-report alignment is often hindered by the inherent structural and statistical divergence between signals and natural language. Existing methods struggle to bridge this gap with simple contrastive objectives, but struggle with distribution dependencies between heterogeneous features. To address this, we propose **SGERA** (**S**tein-**G**uided **E**CG-**R**eport **A**lignment), which leverages the unique properties of Stein kernels to provide a more rigorous geometric alignment in the latent space: **instance-level** alignment via a Stein-RBF kernel enforces pairwise consistency between ECG and report embeddings and **distribution-level** alignment via a Stein-Score kernel captures higher-order interactions for global alignment. Furthermore, we introduce an ECG-Report matching task with a Hard Sample Mining strategy to refine discriminative boundaries. Experiments across three public datasets demonstrate that SGERA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art SSL methods in zero-shot classification, linear probing, and transfer learning, proving the superiority of Stein-guided alignment in handling complex medical modalities. Code is available at supplementary materials.

Theory · Probabilistic Methods

Andrej Bogdanov, Alon Rosen, Neekon Vafa

We show how an adversarial model trainer can plant backdoors in a large class of deep, feedforward neural networks. These backdoors are statistically undetectable in the white-box setting, meaning that the backdoored and honestly trained models are close in total variation distance, even given the full descriptions of the models (e.g., all of the weights). The backdoor provides access to invariance-based adversarial examples for every input, mapping distant inputs to unusually close outputs. However, without the backdoor, it is provably impossible (under standard cryptographic assumptions) to generate any such adversarial examples in polynomial time. Our theoretical and preliminary empirical findings demonstrate a fundamental power asymmetry between model trainers and model users.

Ruiqi Lyu, Alistair Turcan, Bryan Wilder

Concept shift occurs when the distribution of labels conditioned on the features changes between domains, making even a well-tuned ML model to have learned a fundamentally incorrect representation. Identifying these shifted features provides unique insight into how one dataset differs from another, considering the difference may be across a scientifically relevant dimension, such as time, disease status, population, etc. In this paper, we propose SGShift, a model for detecting concept shift in tabular data and attributing reduced model performance to a sparse set of shifted features. We frame concept shift as a feature selection task to learn the features that can explain performance differences between models in the source and target domain. This framework enables SGShift to adapt powerful statistical tools such as generalized additive models, knockoffs, and absorption towards identifying these shifted features. We conduct extensive experiments in synthetic and real data across various ML models and find SGShift can identify shifted features much more accurately than baseline methods, requires few samples in the shifted domain, and is robust to complex cases of concept shift.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Songsong Ouyang, Le Wu, Yingying Zhu

Cross-view geo-localization (CVGL) aims to retrieve the corresponding satellite image given a street query and is critical for autonomous navigation. Although recent methods perform well on benchmarks, they often fail to generalize to unseen environments. A key limitation is the use of contrastive learning, which assigns equal labels to all negative samples and induces similarity-amplified repulsion. But should all negatives be treated equally? In CVGL, semi-positive samples that are geographically proximate to the positive often share important semantic cues. Treating them as ordinary negatives forces the model to overfit noise, leading to a collapse in generalization. To address this issue, we propose an uncertainty-aware framework grounded in Deep Evidential Regression (DER), modeling the Normal-Inverse-Gamma (NIG) distribution as a conjugate prior to quantify environmental complexity $u$ in a single forward pass. The estimated $u$ adaptively softens labels for hard negatives in Soft InfoNCE, mitigating excessive repulsion on semi-positive samples. An Uncertainty Head with cls-to-spatial cross-attention and attention statistics is designed to accurately fit the NIG distribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, including an average 18\% R@1 improvement in zero-shot cross-dataset transfer, filling the critical gap between laboratory benchmarks and robust real-world deployment.

General Machine Learning · Supervised Learning

Zikun Jin, Yuhua Qian, Xinyan Liang, Jiaqian Zhang, Haijun Geng

Robust signal enhancement at extremely low SNR is fundamentally challenging because noise becomes strongly entangled with the signal and corrupts local time–frequency (TF) evidence. In this regime, fixed resolution short-time Fourier transform (STFT) enhancement with purely data driven convolutional biases can become overconfident in unreliable TF regions, causing unstable suppression or residual artifacts. We propose FracKGMF, which couples Fractional Distance Decay Convolution (FracConv) with Knowledge Guided Multi-view Fusion (KGMF) for expressive TF modeling and reliability aware decisions under heavy corruption. FracConv introduces a lightweight fractional distance decay family that reshapes local interactions into long tailed receptive patterns, enabling aggregation of weak but globally consistent cues when per-bin observations are ambiguous. KGMF further injects a Wiener inspired reliability view derived from noise statistics to calibrate multi-view fusion, avoiding over-suppression in uncertain regions while exploiting confident structure for effective denoising. Across speech and electromagnetic (EM) benchmarks, FracKGMF improves perceptual quality and intelligibility over state-of-the-art baselines, with especially robust gains at extremely low SNR; on EM dataset at -20 dB, it achieves an average improvement of 33 dB where conventional TF methods performed poorly. The code will be released upon acceptance.

General Machine Learning · Evaluation

Yueqi Zhang, Jin Hu, Shaoxiong Feng, Peiwen Yuan, Xinglin Wang, Yiwei Li, Jiayi Shi, Chuyi Tan, Ji Zhang, Boyuan Pan 等

The prohibitive cost of evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates efficient alternatives to full-scale benchmarking. Prevalent approaches address this by identifying a small coreset of items to approximate full-benchmark performance. However, existing methods must estimate a reliable item profile from response patterns across many source models, which becomes statistically unstable when the source pool is small. This dependency is particularly limiting for newly released benchmarks with minimal historical evaluation data. We argue that discrete correctness labels are a lossy view of the model's decision process and fail to capture information encoded in hidden states. To address this, we introduce \textsc{RepCore}, which aligns heterogeneous hidden states into a unified latent space to construct representative coresets. Using these subsets for performance extrapolation, \textsc{RepCore} achieves precise estimation accuracy with as few as ten source models. Experiments on five benchmarks and over 200 models show consistent gains over output-based baselines in ranking correlation and estimation accuracy. Spectral analysis further indicates that the aligned representations contain separable components reflecting broad response tendencies and task-specific reasoning patterns.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Qi Tao, Jiarong Wen, Jing Yang, Guanlin Wu, Zhang Kaiyu, Yiqin Lv, Wumei Du, Xingxing Liang, Qi Wang

Importance-Weighted Neural Processes (IWNPs) provide a principled framework for probabilistic meta-learning by using multi-particle latent representations to approximate the marginal log-likelihood of task data tightly. However, this work reveals that the standard optimization of IWNPs suffers from the Matthew effect in the latent space, where high-likelihood particles dominate gradient signals. The neglect of lower-likelihood regions leads to poor tail-risk generation and unstable fast adaptation. While robust objectives such as $\text{CVaR}_\alpha$ can mitigate these risks, they often entail a trade-off that degrades average-case performance. This work proposes \underline{O}rder-\underline{S}tatistics Aligned \underline{N}eural \underline{P}rocesses (OS-NPs) to achieve latent space robust optimization without sacrificing average result. Specifically, we stratify multiple inference particles into disjoint difficulty bins based on order statistics and derive the regularized worst-case optimization framework for OS-NPs. Our method aligns the reduction of stratified order-statistic losses in IWNPs and provides a computationally efficient pipeline to implement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the OS-NP constitutes stable, reliable probabilistic meta-learning that significantly enhances tail-risk robustness while maintaining or even improving average performance.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Daniele Berardini, Vito Paolo Pastore, Vittorio Murino

One-Shot Federated Learning (OSFL) addresses extreme communication regimes in which clients interact with the server only once, amplifying the impact of heterogeneous client data distributions. In particular, the interaction of domain shift and label shift across clients induces misaligned feature representations that cannot be corrected through iterative optimization. Existing OSFL methods rely on distillation, server-side generation or ensemble-based aggregation, but assume aligned representations or address domain and label shift separately. We introduce \textsc{SLOT-Align} (Single-round, Learning-free Optimal Transport Alignment), a geometry-aware feature harmonization framework for OSFL. SLOT-Align uses a shared frozen encoder to extract compact feature statistics, constructs a global reference via Bures–Wasserstein barycenters, and aligns local representations using closed-form geodesic optimal transport maps. The method is computationally efficient and can be combined with existing OSFL pipelines relying on frozen encoders without modifying their training procedures. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks, pretrained backbones, and OSFL methods show that SLOT-Align consistently improves accuracy and robustness under joint domain and label shift.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Jiade Xu, Zhouping Li

Watermarking is crucial for identifying AI-generated text, however, existing detection methods often focus on offline settings and fail to control the online False Discovery Rate (oFDR) when applied to real-world streams where machine-generated content is sparse and mixed with human writing. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose LORD-GoF, a novel online detection framework that combines a Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) statistic with the Levels based On Recent Discovery (LORD) procedure. We prove that LORD-GoF approach can rigorously control the oFDR below a user-specified level by dynamically adjusting detection thresholds. Extensive experiments on watermarked text from Qwen-2.5-3B, Sheared-LLaMA-2.7B, and OPT-1.3B using both the Gumbel-Max and Inverse Transform watermarking schemes show that our method maintains statistical power comparable to offline benchmarks while successfully controlling the oFDR under complex, mixed streaming scenarios.

Social Aspects · Security

Zhuangzhuang Zhang, MingXin Li, Libing Wu, Wei-Bin Lee, Jianping Wang

Collaborative perception (CP) significantly extends the sensing range of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). However, its reliance on data fusion among multiple CAVs makes it inherently vulnerable to adversarial attacks from malicious participants. Existing defenses primarily rely on output-level consensus, assuming that malicious messages manifest as statistical outliers, while suffering from poor adaptability to environmental noise. This makes them vulnerable to stealthy adversarial attacks and prone to high false positive rates. To address this challenge, we shift the defense paradigm from superficial output-level consensus to deeper consistency within the internal feature space. Guided by this principle, we propose \texttt{Cerberus}, a novel defense framework against adversarial attacks in CP systems by leveraging multi-dimensional consistency in the feature space. By quantifying conflicts in topological structure, semantic direction, and energy distribution within feature maps, \texttt{Cerberus} effectively detects adversarial perturbations and provides dynamic protection against adversarial attacks. Experimental results demonstrate that \texttt{Cerberus} significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, effectively limiting the attack success rate to as low as 0.05\% while restoring the mAP to 0.88.

Theory · Probabilistic Methods

Viktor Stein, José Manuel de Frutos

We introduce a rank-statistic approximation of $f$-divergences that avoids explicit density-ratio estimation by working directly with the distribution of ranks. For a resolution parameter $K$, we map the mismatch between two univariate distributions $\mu$ and $\nu$ to a rank histogram on $\{0,\dots,K\}$ and measure its deviation from uniformity via a discrete $f$-divergence, yielding a rank-statistic divergence estimator. We prove that the resulting estimator of the divergence is monotone in $K$, is always a lower bound of the true $f$-divergence, and we establish quantitative convergence rates for $K\to\infty$ under mild regularity of the quantile-domain density ratio. To handle high-dimensional data, we define the sliced rank-statistic $f$-divergence by averaging the univariate construction over random projections, and we provide convergence results for the sliced limit as well. We also derive finite-sample deviation bounds along with asymptotic normality results for the estimator. Finally, we empirically validate the approach by benchmarking against neural baselines and illustrating its use as a learning objective in generative modelling experiments.

General Machine Learning · Methodology

Inés Castilla Rieso

Topological Machine Learning provides strong discriminative power for classification tasks through the use of Topological Data Analysis, and more particularly, Persistent Homology. Although it has strong theoretical appeal, it remains underused by the broader Machine Learning community; criticism often targets the reliance on synthetic data and the absence of shared experimental standards, which makes reported results difficult to compare. Indeed, current empirical evaluations lack a consistent framework for assessing methods: the construction of topological signatures is often opaque, statistical significance testing to validate reported gains, computing times and robustness to perturbations-such as missing data or noise-are often omitted. We assert that **progress in Topological Machine Learning depends on establishing clear and consolidated experimental standards that support meaningful comparison across methods**, articulated through a transparent and reproducible empirical framework including data processing and performance evaluation. We review current practices, highlight their limitations, and propose a set of principles for conducting rigorous and comparable empirical evaluations. Adopting these standards will enable trustworthy studies, clarify the gains of new methods, and ultimately support the broader adoption of Topological Machine Learning by the Machine Learning community.

General Machine Learning · Everything Else

Zheng He, Danica J Sutherland

Testing conditional independence is a fundamental yet inherently difficult challenge, as controlling Type I error is impossible in general. The recently popular "Model-X" paradigm offers a solution by relying on a perfectly known conditional distribution. In traditional "one-shot" testing regimes, slight deviations from perfect knowledge are sometimes allowable, but existing work in more realistic online settings has required exact adherence to Model-X. We propose a new approach for sequential testing of conditional independence that is far more robust to estimation errors in the conditional distribution. Our method, based on online optimization of the Kernel Conditional Independence statistic, introduces a novel normalization and "truncate-and-shift" calibration strategy to the testing-by-betting paradigm. This framework greatly improves validity with estimated conditionals while still providing high power across high-dimensional synthetic benchmarks and real-world fairness tasks.

Applications · Robotics

Sacha Morin, Moonsub Byeon, Alexia Jolicoeur-Martineau, Sebastien Lachapelle

Semi-supervised imitation learning (SSIL) consists in learning a policy from a small dataset of action-labeled trajectories and a much larger dataset of action-free trajectories. Some SSIL methods learn an inverse dynamics model (IDM) to predict the action from the current state and the next state. An IDM can act as a policy when paired with a video model (VM-IDM) or as a label generator to perform behavior cloning on action-free data (IDM labeling). In this work, we first show that VM-IDM and IDM labeling learn the same policy in a limit case, which we call the IDM-based policy. We then argue that the previously observed advantage of IDM-based policies over behavior cloning is due to the superior sample efficiency of IDM learning, which we attribute to two causes: (i) the ground-truth IDM tends to be contained in a lower complexity hypothesis class relative to the expert policy, and (ii) the ground-truth IDM is often less stochastic than the expert policy. We argue these claims based on insights from statistical learning theory and novel experiments, including a study of IDM-based policies using recent architectures for unified video-action prediction (UVA). Motivated by these insights, we finally propose an improved version of the existing LAPO algorithm for latent action policy learning. We experiment on the ProcGen, Push-T and Libero benchmarks.