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Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Iskander Azangulov, Andrei Smolensky, Alexander Terenin, Viacheslav (Slava) Borovitskiy

Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many applications, particularly in physical sciences and engineering, but also in areas such as geostatistics and neuroscience, invariance to symmetries is one of the most fundamental forms of prior information one can consider. The invariance of a Gaussian process' covariance to such symmetries gives rise to the most natural generalization of the concept of stationarity to such spaces. In this work, we develop constructive and practical techniques for building stationary Gaussian processes on a very large class of non-Euclidean spaces arising in the context of symmetries. Our techniques make it possible to (i) calculate covariance kernels and (ii) sample from prior and posterior Gaussian processes defined on such spaces, both in a practical manner. This work is split into two parts, each involving different technical considerations: part I studies compact spaces, while part II studies non-compact spaces possessing certain structure. Our contributions make the non-Euclidean Gaussian process models we study compatible with well-understood computational techniques available in standard Gaussian process software packages, thereby making them accessible to practitioners.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Hyungi Lee, Moonseok Choi, Hyunsu Kim, Kyunghyun Cho, Rajesh Ranganath, Juho Lee

Uncertainty-aware meta-learning aims not only for rapid adaptation to new tasks but also for reliable uncertainty estimation under limited supervision. Neural Processes (NPs) offer a flexible solution by learning implicit stochastic processes directly from data, often using a global latent variable to capture functional uncertainty. However, we empirically find that variational posteriors for this global latent variable are frequently miscalibrated, limiting both predictive accuracy and the reliability of uncertainty estimates. To address this issue, we propose Test Time Scaling for Neural Processes (TTSNPs), a sequential inference framework based on Sequential Monte Carlo Sampler (SMCS) that refines latent samples at test time without modifying the pre-trained NP model. TTSNPs iteratively transform variational samples into better approximations of the true posterior using neural transition kernels, significantly improving both prediction quality and uncertainty calibration. This makes NPs more robust and trustworthy, extending applicability to various scenarios requiring well-calibrated uncertainty estimates.

Applications · Physics

Jan Hagnberger, Daniel Musekamp, Mathias Niepert

Solving time-dependent Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) using a densely discretized spatial domain is a fundamental problem in various scientific and engineering disciplines, including modeling climate phenomena and fluid dynamics. However, performing these computations directly in the physical space often incurs significant computational costs. To address this issue, several neural surrogate models have been developed that operate in a compressed latent space to solve the PDE. While these approaches reduce computational complexity, they often use Transformer-based attention mechanisms to handle irregularly sampled domains, resulting in increased memory consumption. In contrast, convolutional neural networks allow memory-efficient encoding and decoding but are limited to regular discretizations. Motivated by these considerations, we propose CALM-PDE, a model class that efficiently solves arbitrarily discretized PDEs in a compressed latent space. We introduce a novel continuous convolution-based encoder-decoder architecture that uses an epsilon-neighborhood-constrained kernel and learns to apply the convolution operator to adaptive and optimized query points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CALM-PDE on a diverse set of PDEs with both regularly and irregularly sampled spatial domains. CALM-PDE is competitive with or outperforms existing baseline methods while offering significant improvements in memory and inference time efficiency compared to Transformer-based methods.

Optimization · Everything Else

Gunho Park, Jeongin Bae, Byeongwook Kim, Baeseong Park, Jiwon Ryu, Hoseung Kim, Se Jung Kwon, Dongsoo Lee

Weight-only quantization is widely used to mitigate the memory-bound nature of LLM inference. Codebook-based methods extend this trend by achieving strong accuracy in the extremely low-bit regime (e.g., 2-bit). However, current kernels rely on dequantization, which repeatedly fetches centroids and reconstructs weights, incurring substantial latency and cache pressure. We present CodeGEMM, a codebook-centric GEMM kernel that replaces dequantization with precomputed inner products between centroids and activations stored in a lightweight Psumbook. At inference, code indices directly gather these partial sums, eliminating per-element lookups and reducing the on-chip footprint. The kernel supports the systematic exploration of latency–memory–accuracy trade-offs under a unified implementation. On Llama-3 models, CodeGEMM delivers 1.83x (8B) and 8.93x (70B) speedups in the 2-bit configuration compared to state-of-the-art codebook-based quantization at comparable accuracy and further improves computing efficiency and memory subsystem utilization.

General Machine Learning · Causality

Houssam Zenati, Bariscan Bozkurt, Arthur Gretton

Estimating the distribution of outcomes under counterfactual policies is critical for decision-making in domains such as recommendation, advertising, and healthcare. We propose and analyze a novel framework—Counterfactual Policy Mean Embedding (CPME)—that represents the entire counterfactual outcome distribution in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), enabling flexible and nonparametric distributional off-policy evaluation. We introduce both a plug-in estimator and a doubly robust estimator; the latter enjoys improved convergence rates by correcting for bias in both the outcome embedding and propensity models. Building on this, we develop a doubly robust kernel test statistic for hypothesis testing, which achieves asymptotic normality and thus enables computationally efficient testing and straightforward construction of confidence intervals. Our framework also supports sampling from the counterfactual distribution. Numerical simulations illustrate the practical benefits of CPME over existing methods.

Applications · Language, Speech and Dialog

Tien Manh Luong, Khai Nguyen, Dinh Phung, Reza Haffari, Lizhen Qu

Audio captioning systems face a fundamental challenge: teacher-forcing training creates exposure bias that leads to caption degeneration during inference. While contrastive methods have been proposed as solutions, they typically fail to capture the crucial temporal relationships between acoustic and linguistic modalities. We address this limitation by introducing the unbiased sliced Wasserstein RBF (USW-RBF) kernel with rotary positional embedding, specifically designed to preserve temporal information across modalities. Our approach offers a practical advantage: the kernel enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization, making it computationally feasible for real-world applications. Building on this foundation, we develop a complete audio captioning framework that integrates stochastic decoding to further mitigate caption degeneration. Extensive experiments on AudioCaps and Clotho datasets demonstrate that our method significantly improves caption quality, lexical diversity, and text-to-audio retrieval accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate the generalizability of our USW-RBF kernel by applying it to audio reasoning tasks, where it enhances the reasoning capabilities of large audio language models on the CompA-R in terms of correctness and quality. Our kernel also improves the reasoning accuracy of the MMAU-test-mini benchmarks by $4\%$. These results establish our approach as a powerful and generalizable solution for cross-modal alignment challenges in audio-language tasks.

Data-centric AI · Data-centric AI methods and tools

Thomson Yen, Andrew Siah, Haozhe Chen, C. Guetta, Tianyi Peng, Hongseok Namkoong

Careful curation of data sources can significantly improve the performance of LLM pre-training, but predominant approaches rely heavily on intuition or costly trial-and-error, making them difficult to generalize across different data domains and downstream tasks. Although scaling laws can provide a principled and general approach for data curation, standard deterministic extrapolation from small-scale experiments to larger scales requires strong assumptions on the reliability of such extrapolation, whose brittleness has been highlighted in prior works. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic extrapolation framework for data mixture optimization that avoids rigid assumptions and explicitly models the uncertainty in performance across decision variables. We formulate data curation as a sequential decision-making problem–multi-fidelity, multi-scale Bayesian optimization–where {data mixtures, model scale, training steps} are adaptively selected to balance training cost and potential information gain. Our framework naturally gives rise to algorithm prototypes that leverage noisy information from inexpensive experiments to systematically inform costly training decisions. To accelerate methodological progress, we build a simulator based on 472 language model pre-training runs with varying data compositions from the SlimPajama dataset. We observe that even simple kernels and acquisition functions can enable principled decisions across training models from 20M to 1B parameters and achieve 2.6x and 3.3x speedups compared to multi-fidelity BO and random search baselines. Taken together, our framework underscores potential efficiency gains achievable by developing principled and transferable data mixture optimization methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/namkoong-lab/data-recipes.

Theory · Learning Theory

Antonio Ribeiro, David Vävinggren, Dave Zachariah, Thomas Schön, Francis Bach

Adversarial training has emerged as a key technique to enhance model robustness against adversarial input perturbations. Many of the existing methods rely on computationally expensive min-max problems that limit their application in practice. We propose a novel formulation of adversarial training in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, shifting from input to feature-space perturbations. This reformulation enables the exact solution of inner maximization and efficient optimization. It also provides a regularized estimator that naturally adapts to the noise level and the smoothness of the underlying function. We establish conditions under which the feature-perturbed formulation is a relaxation of the original problem and propose an efficient optimization algorithm based on iterative kernel ridge regression. We provide generalization bounds that help to understand the properties of the method. We also extend the formulation to multiple kernel learning. Empirical evaluation shows good performance in both clean and adversarial settings.

Applications · Robotics

Sreevardhan Sirigiri, Christian Hughes, Ian Abraham, Fabio Ramos

Effective robotic exploration in continuous domains requires planning trajectories that maximize coverage over a predefined region. A recent development, Stein Variational Ergodic Search (SVES), proposed parallel ergodic exploration (a key approach within the field of robotic exploration), via Stein variational inference that computes a set of candidate trajectories approximating the posterior distribution over the solution space trajectories. While this approach leverages GPU parallelism well, the trajectories in the set might not be distinct enough, leading to a suboptimal set. In this paper, we propose two key methods to diversify the solution set of this approach. First, we leverage the signature kernel within the SVES framework, introducing a pathwise, sequence-sensitive interaction that preserves the Markovian structure of the trajectories and naturally spreads paths across distinct regions of the search space. Second, we propose a derivative-free evolution-strategy interpretation of SVES that exploits batched, GPU-friendly fitness evaluations and can be paired with approximate gradients whenever analytic gradients of the kernel are unavailable or computationally intractable. The resulting method both retains SVES’s advantages while diversifying the solution set and extending its reach to black-box objectives. Across planar forest search, 3D quadrotor coverage, and model-predictive control benchmarks, our approach consistently reduces ergodic cost and produces markedly richer trajectory sets than SVES without significant extra tuning effort.

General Machine Learning · Everything Else

Jan Quan, Johan Suykens, Panagiotis Patrinos

Motivated by the recently shown connection between self-attention and (kernel) principal component analysis (PCA), we revisit the fundamentals of PCA. Using the difference-of-convex (DC) framework, we present several novel formulations and provide new theoretical insights. In particular, we show the kernelizability and out-of-sample applicability for a PCA-like family of problems. Moreover, we uncover that simultaneous iteration, which is connected to the classical QR algorithm, is an instance of the difference-of-convex algorithm (DCA), offering an optimization perspective on this longstanding method. Further, we describe new algorithms for PCA and empirically compare them with state-of-the-art methods. Lastly, we introduce a kernelizable dual formulation for a robust variant of PCA that minimizes the $l_1$-deviation of the reconstruction errors.

Deep Learning · Attention Mechanisms

Yizhao Gao, Zhichen Zeng, DaYou Du, Shijie Cao, Peiyuan Zhou, Jiaxing Qi, Junjie Lai, Hayden So, Ting Cao, Fan Yang 等

Attention is the cornerstone of modern Large Language Models (LLMs). Yet its quadratic complexity hinders efficiency and scalability, especially for long-context processing. A promising approach is to leverage sparsity in attention. However, existing sparsity-based solutions predominantly rely on predefined patterns or heuristics at the attention head level, struggling to adapt dynamically to different contexts efficiently. We propose SeerAttention, a simple yet effective attention mechanism that directly learns the block-level attention sparsity from the LLM itself. Inspired by the gating mechanism in Mixture of Experts (MoE), SeerAttention augments the conventional attention with a **learnable gate** that **selectively activates important blocks** within the attention map. Specifically, the gate first pools the query (Q) and key (K) tensors along the sequence dimension and processes them through learnable linear layers. The resulting matrices are then multiplied together to produce the gating scores, which are used to predict block-level attention sparsity. Combined with our block-sparse FlashAttention kernel, SeerAttention can achieve significant speedup on GPUs. When applied to pre-trained LLMs, SeerAttention only requires training the gate parameters in a lightweight self-distillation manner, allowing rapid convergence. Our evaluation results demonstrate that SeerAttention achieves better model accuracy and lower latency for long-context pre-filling compared to prior methods. Code is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/SeerAttention.

Optimization · Neural Network Optimization

Banseok Lee, Dongkyu Kim, Youngcheon You, Youngmin Kim

Deploying large language models (LLMs) often faces challenges from substantial memory and computational costs. Quantization offers a solution, yet performance degradation in the sub-1-bit regime remains particularly difficult. This paper introduces LittleBit, a novel method for extreme LLM compression. It targets levels like 0.1 bits per weight (BPW), achieving nearly 31$\times$ memory reduction, e.g., Llama2-13B to under 0.9 GB. LittleBit represents weights in a low-rank form using latent matrix factorization, subsequently binarizing these factors. To counteract information loss from this extreme precision, it integrates a multi-scale compensation mechanism. This includes row, column, and an additional latent dimension that learns per-rank importance. Two key contributions enable effective training: Dual Sign-Value-Independent Decomposition (Dual-SVID) for quantization-aware training (QAT) initialization, and integrated Residual Compensation to mitigate errors. Extensive experiments confirm LittleBit's superiority in sub-1-bit quantization: e.g., its 0.1 BPW performance on Llama2-7B surpasses the leading method's 0.7 BPW. LittleBit establishes a new, viable size-performance trade-off—unlocking a potential 11.6$\times$ speedup over FP16 at the kernel level—and makes powerful LLMs practical for resource-constrained environments.

Social Aspects · Fairness, Equity, Justice and Safety

Xuan Wang, Siyuan Liang, Dongping Liao, Han Fang, Aishan Liu, Xiaochun Cao, Yu-liang Lu, Ee-Chien Chang, Xitong Gao

Institutions with limited data and computing resources often outsource model training to third-party providers in a semi-honest setting, assuming adherence to prescribed training protocols with pre-defined learning paradigm (e.g., supervised or semi-supervised learning). However, this practice can introduce severe security risks, as adversaries may poison the training data to embed backdoors into the resulting model. Existing detection approaches predominantly rely on statistical analyses, which often fail to maintain universally accurate detection accuracy across different learning paradigms. To address this challenge, we propose a unified backdoor detection framework in the semi-honest setting that exploits cross-examination of model inconsistencies between two independent service providers. Specifically, we integrate central kernel alignment to enable robust feature similarity measurements across different model architectures and learning paradigms, thereby facilitating precise recovery and identification of backdoor triggers. We further introduce backdoor fine-tuning sensitivity analysis to distinguish backdoor triggers from adversarial perturbations, substantially reducing false positives. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves superior detection performance, improving accuracy by 4.4%, 1.7%, and 10.6% over SoTA baselines across supervised, semi-supervised, and autoregressive learning tasks, respectively. Notably, it is the first to effectively detect backdoors in multimodal large language models, further highlighting its broad applicability and advancing secure deep learning.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Tianyi Zhang, Mohsen Hariri, Shaochen (Henry) Zhong, Vipin Chaudhary, Yang Sui, Xia Hu, Anshumali Shrivastava

Large-scale AI models, such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Diffusion Models (DMs), have grown rapidly in size, creating significant challenges for efficient deployment on resource-constrained hardware. In this paper, we introduce Dynamic-Length Float (DFloat11), a lossless compression framework that reduces LLM and DM size by 30\% while preserving outputs that are bit-for-bit identical to the original model. DFloat11 is motivated by the low entropy in the BFloat16 weight representation of LLMs, which reveals significant inefficiency in the existing storage format. By applying entropy coding, DFloat11 assigns dynamic-length encodings to weights based on frequency, achieving near information-optimal compression without any loss of precision. To facilitate efficient inference with dynamic-length encodings, we develop a custom GPU kernel for fast online decompression. Our design incorporates the following: (i) compact, hierarchical lookup tables (LUTs) that fit within GPU SRAM for efficient decoding, (ii) a two-phase GPU kernel for coordinating thread read/write positions using lightweight auxiliary variables, and (iii) transformer-block-level decompression to minimize latency. Experiments on Llama 3.3, Qwen 3, Mistral 3, FLUX.1, and others validate our hypothesis that DFloat11 achieves around 30\% model size reduction while preserving bit-for-bit identical outputs. Compared to a potential alternative of offloading parts of an uncompressed model to the CPU to meet memory constraints, DFloat11 achieves 2.3--46.2$\times$ higher throughput in token generation. With a fixed GPU memory budget, DFloat11 enables 5.7--14.9$\times$ longer generation lengths than uncompressed models. Notably, our method enables lossless inference of Llama 3.1 405B, an 810GB model, on a single node equipped with 8$\times$80GB GPUs.

Theory · Learning Theory

Yilan Chen, Zhichao Wang, Wei Huang, Andi Han, Taiji Suzuki, Arya Mazumdar

Gradient-based optimization methods have shown remarkable empirical success, yet their theoretical generalization properties remain only partially understood. In this paper, we establish a generalization bound for gradient flow that aligns with the classical Rademacher complexity bounds for kernel methods—specifically those based on the RKHS norm and kernel trace—through a data-dependent kernel called the loss path kernel (LPK). Unlike static kernels such as NTK, the LPK captures the entire training trajectory, adapting to both data and optimization dynamics, leading to tighter and more informative generalization guarantees. Moreover, the bound highlights how the norm of the training loss gradients along the optimization trajectory influences the final generalization performance. The key technical ingredients in our proof combine stability analysis of gradient flow with uniform convergence via Rademacher complexity. Our bound recovers existing kernel regression bounds for overparameterized neural networks and shows the feature learning capability of neural networks compared to kernel methods. Numerical experiments on real-world datasets validate that our bounds correlate well with the true generalization gap.

Optimization · Neural Network Optimization

Qingyu Song, Wei Lin, Hong Xu

Learn to Optimize (L2O) trains deep neural network-based solvers for optimization, achieving success in accelerating convex problems and improving non-convex solutions. However, L2O lacks rigorous theoretical backing for its own training convergence, as existing analyses often use unrealistic assumptions-a gap this work highlights empirically. We bridge this gap by proving the training convergence of L2O models that learn Gradient Descent (GD) hyperparameters for quadratic programming, leveraging the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory. We propose a deterministic initialization strategy to support our theoretical results and promote stable training over extended optimization horizons by mitigating gradient explosion. Our L2O framework demonstrates over 50% better optimality than GD and superior robustness over state-of-the-art L2O methods on synthetic datasets. The code of our method can be found from https://github.com/NetX-lab/MathL2OProof-Official.

Lei Shi, David Arbour, Raghavendra Addanki, Ritwik Sinha, Avi Feller

Large Language Models (LLMs) enable a new form of digital experimentation where treatments combine human and model-generated content in increasingly sophisticated ways. The main methodological challenge in this setting is representing these high-dimensional treatments without losing their semantic meaning or rendering analysis intractable. Here we address this problem by focusing on learning low-dimensional representations that capture the underlying structure of such treatments. These representations enable downstream applications such as guiding generative models to produce meaningful treatment variants and facilitating adaptive assignment in online experiments. We propose double kernel representation learning, which models the causal effect through the inner product of kernel-based representations of treatments and user covariates. We develop an alternating-minimization algorithm that learns these representations efficiently from data and provide convergence guarantees under a low-rank factor model. As an application of this framework, we introduce an adaptive design strategy for online experimentation and demonstrate the method's effectiveness through numerical experiments.

Theory · Learning Theory

Weikuo Wang, Yue Liao, Huan Luo

A major problem of kernel-based methods (e.g., least squares support vector machines, LS-SVMs) for solving linear/nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is the prohibitive $O(an^3)$ ($a=1$ for linear ODEs and 27 for nonlinear ODEs) part of their computational complexity with increasing temporal discretization points $n$. We propose a novel Nyström-accelerated LS-SVMs framework that breaks this bottleneck by reformulating ODEs as primal-space constraints. Specifically, we derive for the first time an explicit Nyström-based mapping and its derivatives from one-dimensional temporal discretization points to a higher $m$-dimensional feature space ($1< m\le n$), enabling the learning process to solve linear/nonlinear equation systems with $m$-dependent complexity. Numerical experiments on sixteen benchmark ODEs demonstrate: 1) $10-6000$ times faster computation than classical LS-SVMs and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), 2) comparable accuracy to LS-SVMs ($<0.13\%$ relative MAE, RMSE, and $\left \| y-\hat{y} \right \| _{\infty } $difference) while maximum surpassing PINNs by 72\% in RMSE, and 3) scalability to $n=10^4$ time steps with $m=50$ features. This work establishes a new paradigm for efficient kernel-based ODEs learning without significantly sacrificing the accuracy of the solution.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Russell Tsuchida, Jiawei Liu, Cheng Soon Ong, Dino Sejdinovic

Squared families of probability distributions have been studied and applied in numerous machine learning contexts. Typically, they appear as likelihoods, where their advantageous computational, geometric and statistical properties are exploited for fast estimation algorithms, representational properties and statistical guarantees. Here, we investigate the use of squared families as prior beliefs in Bayesian inference. We find that they can form helpful conjugate families, often allowing for closed-form and tractable Bayesian inference and marginal likelihoods. We apply such conjugate families to Bayesian regression in feature space using end-to-end learnable neural network features. Such a setting allows for a rich multi-modal alternative to Gaussian processes with neural network features, often called deep kernel learning. We demonstrate our method on few shot learning, outperforming existing neural methods based on Gaussian processes and normalising flows.

Theory · Learning Theory

Dechen Zhang, Zhenmei Shi, Zhang, Yingyu Liang, Difan Zou

Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a foundational tool in machine learning, with recent work emphasizing its connections to neural networks. However, existing theory primarily addresses the i.i.d. setting, while real-world data often exhibits structured dependencies - particularly in applications like denoising score learning where multiple noisy observations derive from shared underlying signals. We present the first systematic study of KRR generalization for non-i.i.d. data with signal-noise causal structure, where observations represent different noisy views of common signals. Under standard spectral decay assumptions, we develop a novel blockwise decomposition method that enables precise concentration analysis for dependent data. Using this technique, we derive excess risk bounds for KRR that explicitly depend on: (1) the kernel spectrum, (2) causal structure parameters, and (3) sampling mechanisms (including relative sample sizes for signals and noises). We further apply our results to denoising score learning, establishing generalization guarantees and providing principled guidance for sampling noisy data points. This work advances KRR theory while providing practical tools for analyzing dependent data in modern machine learning applications.