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Optimization · Zero-order and Black-box Optimization

Dhruv Agarwal, Manoj Ghuhan Arivazhagan, Rajarshi Das, Sandesh Swamy, Sopan Khosla, Rashmi Gangadharaiah

Scaling test-time compute to search for optimal solutions is an important step towards building generally-capable language models that can reason. Recent work, however, shows that tasks of varying complexity require distinct search strategies to solve optimally, thus making it challenging to design a one-size-fits-all approach. Prior solutions either attempt to predict task difficulty to select the optimal search strategy, often infeasible in practice, or use a static, pre-defined strategy, e.g., repeated parallel sampling or greedy sequential search, which is sub-optimal. In this work, we argue for an alternative view using the probabilistic framework of Bayesian optimization (BO), where the search strategy is adapted dynamically based on the evolving uncertainty estimates of solutions as search progresses. To this end, we introduce Bayesian-OPRO (BOPRO)––a generalization of a recent method for in-context optimization, which iteratively samples from new proposal distributions by modifying the prompt to the LLM with a subset of its previous generations selected to explore or exploit different parts of the search space. We evaluate our method on word search, molecule optimization, and a joint hypothesis+program search task using a 1-D version of the challenging Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (1D-ARC). Our results show that BOPRO outperforms all baselines in word search (≥10 points) and molecule optimization (higher quality and 17% fewer invalid molecules), but trails a best-k prompting strategy in program search. Our analysis reveals that despite the ability to balance exploration and exploitation using BOPRO, failure is likely due to the inability of code representation models in distinguishing sequences with low edit-distances.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Rui Li, Marcus Klasson, Arno Solin, Martin Trapp

The rising interest in Bayesian deep learning (BDL) has led to a plethora of methods for estimating the posterior distribution. However, efficient computation of inferences, such as predictions, has been largely overlooked with Monte Carlo integration remaining the standard. In this work we examine streamlining prediction in BDL through a single forward pass without sampling. For this, we use local linearisation of activation functions and local Gaussian approximations at linear layers. Thus allowing us to analytically compute an approximation of the posterior predictive distribution. We showcase our approach for both MLP and transformers, such as ViT and GPT-2, and assess its performance on regression and classification tasks.Open-source library: https://github.com/AaltoML/SUQ.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Hyunsu Kim, Giung Nam, Chulhee Yun, Hongseok Yang, Juho Lee

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is one of the most powerful methods for scalable posterior sampling in BNNs, achieving efficiency by combining stochastic gradient descent with second-order Langevin dynamics. However, SGMCMC often suffers from limited sample diversity in practice, which affects uncertainty estimation and model performance. We propose a simple yet effective approach to enhance sample diversity in SGMCMC without the need for tempering or running multiple chains. Our approach reparameterizes the neural network by decomposing each of its weight matrices into a product of matrices, resulting in a sampling trajectory that better explores the target parameter space. This approach produces a more diverse set of samples, allowing faster mixing within the same computational budget. Notably, our sampler achieves these improvements without increasing the inference cost compared to the standard SGMCMC. Extensive experiments on image classification tasks, including OOD robustness, diversity, loss surface analyses, and a comparative study with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach.

Theory · Domain Adaptation and Transfer Learning

Kecheng Chen, Pingping Zhang, Tiexin Qin, Shiqi Wang, Hong Yan, Haoliang Li

Current test- or compression-time adaptation image compression (TTA-IC) approaches, which leverage both latent and decoder refinements as a two-step adaptation scheme, have potentially enhanced the rate-distortion (R-D) performance of learned image compression models on cross-domain compression tasks, \textit{e.g.,} from natural to screen content images. However, compared with the emergence of various decoder refinement variants, the latent refinement, as an inseparable ingredient, is barely tailored to cross-domain scenarios. To this end, we are interested in developing an advanced latent refinement method by extending the effective hybrid latent refinement (HLR) method, which is designed for \textit{in-domain} inference improvement but shows noticeable degradation of the rate cost in \textit{cross-domain} tasks. Specifically, we first provide theoretical analyses, in a cue of marginalization approximation from in- to cross-domain scenarios, to uncover that the vanilla HLR suffers from an underlying mismatch between refined Gaussian conditional and hyperprior distributions, leading to deteriorated joint probability approximation of marginal distribution with increased rate consumption. To remedy this issue, we introduce a simple Bayesian approximation-endowed \textit{distribution regularization} to encourage learning a better joint probability approximation in a plug-and-play manner. Extensive experiments on six in- and cross-domain datasets demonstrate that our proposed method not only improves the R-D performance compared with other latent refinement counterparts, but also can be flexibly integrated into existing TTA-IC methods with incremental benefits.

Optimization · Zero-order and Black-box Optimization

Seunghun Lee, Jinyoung Park, Jaewon Chu, Minseo Yoon, Hyunwoo Kim

Bayesian Optimization (BO) has been recognized for its effectiveness in optimizing expensive and complex objective functions.Recent advancements in Latent Bayesian Optimization (LBO) have shown promise by integrating generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) to manage the complexity of high-dimensional and structured data spaces.However, existing LBO approaches often suffer from the value discrepancy problem, which arises from the reconstruction gap between input and latent spaces.This value discrepancy problem propagates errors throughout the optimization process, leading to suboptimal outcomes.To address this issue, we propose a Normalizing Flow-based Bayesian Optimization (NF-BO), which utilizes normalizing flow as a generative model to establish one-to-one encoding function from the input space to the latent space, along with its left-inverse decoding function, eliminating the reconstruction gap. Specifically, we introduce SeqFlow, an autoregressive normalizing flow for sequence data.In addition, we develop a new candidate sampling strategy that dynamically adjusts the exploration probability for each token based on its importance.Through extensive experiments, our NF-BO method demonstrates superior performance in molecule generation tasks, significantly outperforming both traditional and recent LBO approaches.

Seunghun Lee, Jinyoung Park, Jaewon Chu, Minseo Yoon, Hyunwoo Kim

Bayesian Optimization (BO) has been recognized for its effectiveness in optimizing expensive and complex objective functions.Recent advancements in Latent Bayesian Optimization (LBO) have shown promise by integrating generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) to manage the complexity of high-dimensional and structured data spaces.However, existing LBO approaches often suffer from the value discrepancy problem, which arises from the reconstruction gap between input and latent spaces.This value discrepancy problem propagates errors throughout the optimization process, leading to suboptimal outcomes.To address this issue, we propose a Normalizing Flow-based Bayesian Optimization (NF-BO), which utilizes normalizing flow as a generative model to establish one-to-one function between input and latent spaces, eliminating the reconstruction gap.Specifically, we introduce SeqFlow, an autoregressive normalizing flow for sequence data.In addition, we develop a new candidate sampling strategy that dynamically adjusts the exploration probability for each token based on its importance.Through extensive experiments, our NF-BO method demonstrates superior performance in molecule generation tasks, significantly outperforming both traditional and recent LBO approaches.

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Kacper Wyrwal, Andreas Krause, Viacheslav (Slava) Borovitskiy

We propose practical deep Gaussian process models on Riemannian manifolds, similar in spirit to residual neural networks.With manifold-to-manifold hidden layers and an arbitrary last layer, they can model manifold- and scalar-valued functions, as well as vector fields.We target data inherently supported on manifolds, which is too complex for shallow Gaussian processes thereon.For example, while the latter perform well on high-altitude wind data, they struggle with the more intricate, nonstationary patterns at low altitudes.Our models significantly improve performance in these settings, enhancing prediction quality and uncertainty calibration, and remain robust to overfitting, reverting to shallow models when additional complexity is unneeded.We further showcase our models on Bayesian optimisation problems on manifolds, using stylised examples motivated by robotics, and obtain substantial improvements in later stages of the optimisation process.Finally, we show our models to have potential for speeding up inference for non-manifold data, when, and if, it can be mapped to a proxy manifold well enough.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Ankit Sonthalia, Alexander Rubinstein, Ehsan Abbasnejad, Seong Joon Oh

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances. This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a star domain that contains a star model that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles.

Changmin Yu, Maneesh Sahani, Máté Lengyel

Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (GPFA) is a powerful latent variable model for extracting low-dimensional manifolds underlying population neural activities. However, one limitation of standard GPFA models is that the number of latent factors needs to be pre-specified or selected through heuristic-based processes, and that all factors contribute at all times. We propose the infinite GPFA model, a fully Bayesian non-parametric extension of the classical GPFA by incorporating an Indian Buffet Process (IBP) prior over the factor loading process, such that it is possible to infer a potentially infinite set of latent factors, and the identity of those factors that contribute to neural firings in a compositional manner at \textit{each} time point. Learning and inference in the infinite GPFA model is performed through variational expectation-maximisation, and we additionally propose scalable extensions based on sparse variational Gaussian Process methods. We empirically demonstrate that the infinite GPFA model correctly infers dynamically changing activations of latent factors on a synthetic dataset. By fitting the infinite GPFA model to population activities of hippocampal place cells during spatial tasks with alternating random foraging and spatial memory phases, we identify novel non-trivial and behaviourally meaningful dynamics in the neural encoding process.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Kaizheng Wang, Fabio Cuzzolin, Keivan Shariatmadar, David Moens, Hans Hallez

This paper presents an innovative approach, called credal wrapper, to formulating a credal set representation of model averaging for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles (DEs), capable of improving uncertainty estimation in classification tasks. Given a finite collection of single predictive distributions derived from BNNs or DEs, the proposed credal wrapper approach extracts an upper and a lower probability bound per class, acknowledging the epistemic uncertainty due to the availability of a limited amount of distributions. Such probability intervals over classes can be mapped on a convex set of probabilities (a credal set) from which, in turn, a unique prediction can be obtained using a transformation called intersection probability transformation. In this article, we conduct extensive experiments on several out-of-distribution (OOD) detection benchmarks, encompassing various dataset pairs (CIFAR10/100 vs SVHN/Tiny-ImageNet, CIFAR10 vs CIFAR10-C, CIFAR100 vs CIFAR100-C and ImageNet vs ImageNet-O) and using different network architectures (such as VGG16, ResNet-18/50, EfficientNet B2, and ViT Base). Compared to the BNN and DE baselines, the proposed credal wrapper method exhibits superior performance in uncertainty estimation and achieves a lower expected calibration error on corrupted data.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Samuel Duffield, Kaelan Donatella, Johnathan Chiu, Phoebe Klett, Daniel Simpson

Although theoretically compelling, Bayesian learning with modern machine learning models is computationally challenging since it requires approximating a high dimensional posterior distribution. In this work, we (i) introduce **_posteriors_**, an easily extensible PyTorch library hosting general-purpose implementations making Bayesian learning accessible and scalable to large data and parameter regimes; (ii) present a tempered framing of stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo, as implemented in posteriors, that transitions seamlessly into optimization and unveils a minor modification to deep ensembles to ensure they are asymptotically unbiased for the Bayesian posterior, and (iii) demonstrate and compare the utility of Bayesian approximations through experiments including an investigation into the cold posterior effect and applications with large language models._**posteriors**_ repository: https://github.com/normal-computing/posteriors

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Yogesh Verma, Ayush Bharti, Vikas Garg

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods typically require fully observed data to infer parameters of models with intractable likelihood functions. However, datasets often contain missing values due to incomplete observations, data corruptions (common in astrophysics), or instrument limitations (e.g., in high-energy physics applications). In such scenarios, missing data must be imputed before applying any SBI method. We formalize the problem of missing data in SBI and demonstrate that naive imputation methods can introduce bias in the estimation of SBI posterior. We also introduce a novel amortized method that addresses this issue by jointly learning the imputation model and the inference network within a neural posterior estimation (NPE) framework. Extensive empirical results on SBI benchmarks show that our approach provides robust inference outcomes compared to standard baselines for varying levels of missing data. Moreover, we demonstrate the merits of our imputation model on two real-world bioactivity datasets (Adrenergic and Kinase assays). Code is available at https://github.com/Aalto-QuML/RISE.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Gaurav Patel, Christopher M. Sandino, Behrooz Mahasseni, Ellen Zippi, Erdrin Azemi, Ali Moin, Juri Minxha

In this paper, we propose a framework for efficient Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA) in the context of time-series, focusing on enhancing both parameter efficiency and data-sample utilization. Our approach introduces an improved paradigm for source-model preparation and target-side adaptation, aiming to enhance training efficiency during target adaptation. Specifically, we reparameterize the source model's weights in a Tucker-style decomposed manner, factorizing the model into a compact form during the source model preparation phase. During target-side adaptation, only a subset of these decomposed factors is fine-tuned, leading to significant improvements in training efficiency. We demonstrate using PAC Bayesian analysis that this selective fine-tuning strategy implicitly regularizes the adaptation process by constraining the model's learning capacity. Furthermore, this re-parameterization reduces the overall model size and enhances inference efficiency, making the approach particularly well suited for resource-constrained devices. Additionally, we demonstrate that our framework is compatible with various SFDA methods and achieves significant computational efficiency, reducing the number of fine-tuned parameters and inference overhead in terms of MACs by over 90\% while maintaining model performance.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Zhitong Xu, Haitao Wang, Jeff Phillips, Shandian Zhe

A long-standing belief holds that Bayesian Optimization (BO) with standard Gaussian processes (GP) --- referred to as standard BO --- underperforms in high-dimensional optimization problems. While this belief seems plausible, it lacks both robust empirical evidence and theoretical justification. To address this gap, we present a systematic investigation. First, through a comprehensive evaluation across twelve benchmarks, we found that while the popular Square Exponential (SE) kernel often leads to poor performance, using Mat\'ern kernels enables standard BO to consistently achieve top-tier results, frequently surpassing methods specifically designed for high-dimensional optimization. Second, our theoretical analysis reveals that the SE kernel’s failure primarily stems from improper initialization of the length-scale parameters, which are commonly used in practice but can cause gradient vanishing in training. We provide a probabilistic bound to characterize this issue, showing that Mat\'ern kernels are less susceptible and can robustly handle much higher dimensions. Third, we propose a simple robust initialization strategy that dramatically improves the performance of the SE kernel, bringing it close to state-of-the-art methods, without requiring additional priors or regularization. We prove another probabilistic bound that demonstrates how the gradient vanishing issue can be effectively mitigated with our method. Our findings advocate for a re-evaluation of standard BO’s potential in high-dimensional settings.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Hongkai Zheng, Wenda Chu, Bingliang Zhang, Zihui Wu, Austin Wang, Berthy Feng, Caifeng Zou, Yu Sun, Nikola Kovachki, Zachary Ross 等

Plug-and-play diffusion priors (PnPDP) have emerged as a promising research direction for solving inverse problems. However, current studies primarily focus on natural image restoration, leaving the performance of these algorithms in scientific inverse problems largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce \textsc{InverseBench}, a framework that evaluates diffusion models across five distinct scientific inverse problems. These problems present unique structural challenges that differ from existing benchmarks, arising from critical scientific applications such as optical tomography, medical imaging, black hole imaging, seismology, and fluid dynamics. With \textsc{InverseBench}, we benchmark 14 inverse problem algorithms that use plug-and-play diffusion priors against strong, domain-specific baselines, offering valuable new insights into the strengths and weaknesses of existing algorithms. To facilitate further research and development, we open-source the codebase, along with datasets and pre-trained models, at [https://devzhk.github.io/InverseBench/](https://devzhk.github.io/InverseBench/).

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Nikita Kotelevskii, Vladimir Kondratyev, Martin Takáč, Eric Moulines, Maxim Panov

There are various measures of predictive uncertainty in the literature, but their relationships to each other remain unclear. This paper uses a decomposition of statistical pointwise risk into components associated with different sources of predictive uncertainty: namely, aleatoric uncertainty (inherent data variability) and epistemic uncertainty (model-related uncertainty). Together with Bayesian methods applied as approximations, we build a framework that allows one to generate different predictive uncertainty measures.We validate measures, derived from our framework on image datasets by evaluating its performance in detecting out-of-distribution and misclassified instances using the AUROC metric. The experimental results confirm that the measures derived from our framework are useful for the considered downstream tasks.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Gaojie Jin, Sihao Wu, Jiaxu Liu, Tianjin Huang, Ronghui Mu

Recent research has highlighted a critical issue known as ``robust fairness", where robust accuracy varies significantly across different classes, undermining the reliability of deep neural networks (DNNs). A common approach to address this has been to dynamically reweight classes during training, giving more weight to those with lower empirical robust performance. However, we find there is a divergence of class-wise robust performance between training set and testing set, which limits the effectiveness of these explicit reweighting methods, indicating the need for a principled alternative.In this work, we derive a robust generalization bound for the worst-class robust error within the PAC-Bayesian framework, accounting for unknown data distributions. Our analysis shows that the worst-class robust error is influenced by two main factors: the spectral norm of the empirical robust confusion matrix and the information embedded in the model and training set. While the latter has been extensively studied, we propose a novel regularization technique targeting the spectral norm of the robust confusion matrix to improve worst-class robust accuracy and enhance robust fairness.We validate our approach through comprehensive experiments on various datasets and models, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing robust fairness.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Caleb Dahlke, Jason Pacheco

Mutual Information (MI) is a fundamental measure of dependence between random variables, but its practical application is limited because it is difficult to calculate in many circumstances. Variational methods offer one approach by introducing an approximate distribution to create various bounds on MI, which in turn is an easier optimization problem to solve. In practice, the variational distribution chosen is often a Gaussian, which is convenient but lacks flexibility in modeling complicated distributions. In this paper, we introduce new classes of variational estimators based on Normalizing Flows that extend the previous Gaussian-based variational estimators. Our new estimators maintain many of the same theoretical guarantees while simultaneously enhancing the expressivity of the variational distribution. We experimentally verify that our new methods are effective on large MI problems where discriminative-based estimators, such as MINE and InfoNCE, are fundamentally limited. Furthermore, we compare against a diverse set of benchmarking tests to show that the flow-based estimators often perform as well, if not better, than the discriminative-based counterparts. Finally, we demonstrate how these estimators can be effectively utilized in the Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design setting for online sequential decision making.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Minyoung Kim, Timothy Hospedales

We tackle the problem of parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) of a pre-trained large deep model on many different but related tasks. Instead of the simple but strong baseline strategy of task-wise independent fine-tuning, we aim to meta-learn the core shared information that can be used for unseen test tasks to improve the prediction performance further. That is, we propose a method for {\em learning-to-fine-tune} (LiFT). LiFT introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model that can be superior to both existing general meta learning algorithms like MAML and recent LoRA zoo mixing approaches such as LoRA-Retriever and model-based clustering. In our Bayesian model, the parameters of the task-specific LoRA modules are regarded as random variables where these task-wise LoRA modules are governed/regularized by higher-level latent random variables, which represents the prior of the LoRA modules that capture the shared information across all training tasks. To make the posterior inference feasible, we propose a novel SGLD-Gibbs sampling algorithm that is computationally efficient. To represent the posterior samples from the SGLD-Gibbs, we propose an online EM algorithm that maintains a Gaussian mixture representation for the posterior in an online manner in the course of iterative posterior sampling. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LiFT on NLP and vision multi-task meta learning benchmarks.

Seongmin Hong, Jaehyeok Bae, Jongho Lee, Se Young Chun

Compressed sensing (CS) has emerged to overcome the inefficiency of Nyquist sampling. However, traditional optimization-based reconstruction is slow and can not yield an exact image in practice. Deep learning-based reconstruction has been a promising alternative to optimization-based reconstruction, outperforming it in accuracy and computation speed. Finding an efficient sampling method with deep learning-based reconstruction, especially for Fourier CS remains a challenge. Existing joint optimization of sampling-reconstruction works (H1) optimize the sampling mask but have low potential as it is not adaptive to each data point. Adaptive sampling (H2) has also disadvantages of difficult optimization and Pareto sub-optimality. Here, we propose a novel adaptive selection of sampling-reconstruction (H1.5) framework that selects the best sampling mask and reconstruction network for each input data. We provide theorems that our method has a higher potential than H1 and effectively solves the Pareto sub-optimality problem in sampling-reconstruction by using separate reconstruction networks for different sampling masks. To select the best sampling mask, we propose to quantify the high-frequency Bayesian uncertainty of the input, using a super-resolution space generation model. Our method outperforms joint optimization of sampling-reconstruction (H1) and adaptive sampling (H2) by achieving significant improvements on several Fourier CS problems.