In specialized domains that require expert annotators and high inter-annotator agreement, high-quality datasets with span-bound semantic concept annotations remain expensive to develop. Substantial resources are typically spent on \textit{unitizing}, the task of identifying precise span boundaries for entity mentions. Unitizing is a significant source of inter-annotator disagreement, a poor use of expensive domain expertise, and very time-consuming. We propose a lighter annotation procedure that concentrates manual efforts on typed position annotations, marking positions in the text that overlap with mentions of each entity type, abstracting away span boundary decisions. With as few as 100-200 example sentences, we train span boundary detection models to unitize typed position annotations. Through evaluation over three datasets: CRAFT (biomedical), GENIA (molecular biology), and POLIANNA (climate/energy policy text), we demonstrate that (1) annotating typed positions in the text instead of full concept annotation is a more efficient use of time in low-resource settings, and (2) model-inferred span boundaries result in higher agreement at both the annotator training and corpus annotation phases, without sacrificing utility.
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Understanding climate change requires reasoning over complex causal networks. Yet, existing causal discovery datasets predominantly capture explicit, direct causal relations. We introduce ClimateCause, a manually expert-annotated dataset of higher-order causal structures from science-for-policy climate reports, including implicit and nested causality. Cause-effect expressions are normalized and disentangled into individual causal relations to facilitate graph construction, with unique annotations for cause-effect correlation, relation type, and spatiotemporal context. We further demonstrate ClimateCause’s value for quantifying readability based on the semantic complexity of causal graphs underlying a statement. Finally, large language model benchmarking on correlation inference and causal chain reasoning highlights the latter as a key challenge.
Student Personas (SPs) are emerging as infrastructure for educational LLMs, yet prior work often relies on ad-hoc prompting or hand-crafted profiles with limited control over educational theory and population distributions. We formalize this as Theory-Aligned and Distribution-Controllable Persona Generation (TAD-PG) and introduce HACHIMI, a multi-agent Propose-Validate-Revise framework that generates theory-aligned, quota-controlled personas. HACHIMI factorizes each persona into a theory-anchored educational schema, enforces developmental and psychological constraints via a neuro-symbolic validator, and combines stratified sampling with semantic deduplication to reduce mode collapse. The resulting HACHIMI-1M corpus comprises 1 million personas for Grades 1-12. Intrinsic evaluation shows near-perfect schema validity, accurate quotas, and substantial diversity, while external evaluation instantiates personas as student agents answering CEPS and PISA 2022 surveys; across 16 cohorts, math and curiosity/growth constructs align strongly between humans and agents, whereas classroom-climate and well-being constructs are only moderately aligned, revealing a fidelity gradient. All personas are generated with Qwen2.5-72B, and HACHIMI provides a standardized synthetic student population for group-level benchmarking and social-science simulations. Resources available at https://github.com/ZeroLoss-Lab/HACHIMI.
Climate research is pivotal for mitigating global environmental crises, yet the accelerating volume of multi-scale datasets and the complexity of analytical tools have created significant bottlenecks, constraining scientific discovery to fragmented and labor-intensive workflows. While the emergence Large Language Models (LLMs) offers a transformative paradigm to scale scientific expertise, existing explorations remain largely confined to simple Question-Answering (Q A) tasks. These approaches often oversimplify real-world challenges, neglecting the intricate physical constraints and the data-driven nature required in professional climate science. To bridge this gap, we introduce ClimAgent, a general-purpose autonomous framework designed to execute a wide spectrum of research tasks across diverse climate sub-fields. By integrating a unified tool-use environment with rigorous reasoning protocols, ClimAgent transcends simple retrieval to perform end-to-end modeling and analysis. To foster systematic evaluation, we propose ClimaBench, the first comprehensive benchmark for real-world climate discovery. It encompasses challenging problems spanning 5 distinct task categories derived from professional scenarios between 2000 and 2025. Experiments on ClimaBench demonstrate that ClimAgent significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 40.21% improvement over original LLM solutions in solution rigorousness and practicality. Our code are available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/ClimAgent.
Reasoning in humans is prone to biases due to underlying motivations like identity protection, that undermine rational decision-making and judgment. This motivated reasoning at a collective level can be detrimental to society when debating critical issues such as human-driven climate change or vaccine safety, and can further aggravate political polarization. Prior studies have reported that large language models (LLMs) are also susceptible to human-like cognitive biases, however, the extent to which LLMs selectively reason toward identity-congruent conclusions remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigate whether assigning 8 personas across 4 political and socio-demographic attributes induces motivated reasoning in LLMs. Testing 8 LLMs (open source and proprietary) across two reasoning tasks from human-subject studies — veracity discernment of misinformation headlines and evaluation of numeric scientific evidence — we find that persona-assigned LLMs have up to 9% reduced veracity discernment relative to models without personas. Political personas specifically are up to 90% more likely to correctly evaluate scientific evidence on gun control when the ground truth is congruent with their induced political identity. Prompt-based debiasing methods are largely ineffective at mitigating these effects. Taken together, our empirical findings are the first to suggest that persona-assigned LLMs exhibit human-like motivated reasoning that is hard to mitigate through conventional debiasing prompts — raising concerns of exacerbating identity-congruent reasoning in both LLMs and humans.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of generating personalized, persuasive text at scale, raising new questions about bias and fairness in automated communication. This paper presents the first systematic analysis of how LLMs behave when tasked with demographic-conditioned targeted messaging. We introduce a controlled evaluation framework using three leading models: GPT-4o, Llama-3.3, and Mistral-Large-2.1, across two generation settings: **Standalone Generation**, which isolates intrinsic demographic effects, and **Context-Rich Generation**, which incorporates thematic and regional context to emulate realistic targeting. We evaluate generated messages along three dimensions: *lexical content*, *language style*, and *persuasive framing*. We instantiate this framework on ***climate communication*** and find consistent age- and gender-based asymmetries across models: male- and youth-targeted messages tend to emphasize more *assertive* and *progressive* framing, while female- and senior-targeted messages more often reflect *warmth*, *care*, and *traditional* themes. Contextual prompts systematically amplify these disparities, with *persuasion* scores being higher for male-targeted messages, while age-related differences vary across models. Our findings demonstrate how demographic stereotypes can surface and intensify in LLM-generated targeted communication, underscoring the need for bias-aware generation pipelines and transparent auditing frameworks that explicitly account for demographic conditioning in socially sensitive applications.
Earth Observation (EO) provides critical planetary data for environmental monitoring, disaster management, climate science, and other scientific domains. In this work we ask: Are AI systems ready for reliable Earth Observation? To answer this, we introduce **UnivEARTH**, a coding benchmark of 408 yes/no questions from NASA Earth Observatory articles across 7 various topics and over 15 satellite instruments and sources. Using Google Earth Engine API as a tool in a zero-shot setup, LLM agents achieve an accuracy of 40.0% where the code fails to run over 44% of the time. To better understand LLM agent behavior, we also analyze the impact of using the JavaScript API versus Python and the effect of providing documentation. Furthermore, we find that using a reflexion framework significantly reduces errors: Claude-4.5-Sonnet, Gemini-2.5-Pro, and GPT-5 accuracies rise to around 60%. However, these results remain only marginally above random chance. Taken together, our findings identify significant challenges to be solved before AI agents can automate earth observation, and suggest paths forward.
GCA Framework: A GCC Countries–Grounded Dataset and Agentic Pipeline for Climate Decision Support
PDF ↗Climate decision-making in the GCC states increasingly demands systems that can translate heterogeneous scientific and policy evidence into actionable guidance, yet general-purpose large language models (LLMs) remain weak both in region-specific climate knowledge and grounded interaction with geospatial and forecasting tools. We present the GCA framework, which unifies (i) GCA-DS, a curated multimodal dataset grounded in the GCC states, and (ii) Gulf Climate Agent (GCA), a tool-augmented agent for climate analysis. GCA-DS comprises nearly 200k question-answer pairs spanning governmental policies and adaptation plans, NGO and international frameworks, academic literature, and event-driven reporting on heatwaves, dust storms, and floods, complemented with remote-sensing inputs that couple imagery with textual evidence. Building on this foundation, the GCA agent orchestrates a modular tool pipeline grounded in real-time and historical signals and geospatial processing that produces derived indices and interpretable visualizations. Finally, we benchmark open and proprietary LLMs on climate tasks in the GCC states and show that domain fine-tuning and tool integration substantially improve reliability over general-purpose baselines.
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
Climate change research increasingly requires AI systems that reason across text, dynamic visual content, and scientific figures, yet existing climate QA benchmarks are small, mostly textual, and cover a narrow range of models. We introduce MMClima, a large-scale multimodal climate question answering framework with over 104k expert-validated question–answer pairs spanning articles, video transcriptions, and figures across five core climate science domains. MMClima is constructed via automated claim extraction and QA synthesis with human-in-the-loop validation to ensure both scale and reliability. Using MMClima, we benchmark state-of-the-art multimodal language models on tasks requiring factual recall, visual interpretation, and cross-modal synthesis. We additionally fine-tune on the textual split to produce mmclima-70b-txt, a domain-adapted baseline that outperforms strong open- and closed-source models on textual QA. We release the dataset, evaluation pipeline, fine-tuned model weights, and data creation framework to support standardized multimodal evaluation for climate science.
Social Aspects · Everything Else
Sustainability encompasses three key facets: economic, environmental, and social. However, the nascent discourse that is emerging on sustainable artificial intelligence (AI) has predominantly focused on the environmental sustainability of AI, often neglecting the economic and social aspects. Achieving truly sustainable AI necessitates addressing the tension between its climate awareness, which emphasizes the need to mitigate AI's environmental impacts, and its social sustainability, which hinges on equitable access to AI development resources. The concept of resource awareness advocates for AI sovereignty through broader access to the infrastructure required to develop AI. Yet, this push for improving accessibility often overlooks the environmental costs of expanding such resource usage. This position paper argues that reconciling climate awareness and resource awareness is essential to realizing sustainable AI and neglecting these factors fuelling the global AI arms race. By applying the base-superstructure framework from historical materialism, we analyze how the material conditions are shaping the current AI progress and the discourse surrounding it. We also introduce the Climate and Resource Aware Machine Learning (CARAML) framework to address the conflict between climate and resource awareness of AI, with actionable recommendations spanning individual, community, industry, government, and global levels to achieve sustainable AI.
Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks
The robustness of synchronization is a central theme of the study of dynamical systems on networks. Typically one attempts to define a single stability index that characterizes the robustness of individual nodes to a class of perturbations. The dependence of a stability index on topology and system parameters can then be studied using network science or GNNs. Here we propose a novel upstream task, Stability Landscapes, that allows deriving many downstream stability indices. To support this task, we release two computationally intensive datasets of 10,000 graphs each at 20 and 100 nodes with per-node landscape labels. The dynamics are given by a conceptual oscillator model that captures aspects of the synchronization behavior of power grids. A compact graph neural network with a CNN decoder predicts these landscapes with about 85\% SSIM in distribution and 67\% under a 20 to 100 size shift, and 65\%-73\% SSIM when going from the 100 node ensemble to realistic power grid topologies with 100-400 nodes. This demonstrates that while basin landscapes are not suitable for study with conventional methods of network science, they are amenable to machine learning methods. This suggests that there is considerable potential in the study of complex networked systems across biology, neuroscience, and power grids, to move beyond scalar stability indices.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
In dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) we aim to recover the dynamical system (DS) underlying observed time series. Specifically, we aim to learn a generative surrogate model which approximates the underlying, data-generating DS, and recreates its long-term properties (`climate statistics'). In scientific and medical areas, in particular, these models need to be mechanistically tractable -- through their mathematical analysis we would like to obtain insight into the recovered system's workings. Piecewise-linear (PL), ReLU-based RNNs (PLRNNs) have a strong track-record in this regard, representing SOTA DSR models while allowing mathematical insight by virtue of their PL design. However, all current PLRNN variants are *discrete-time maps*. This is in disaccord with the assumed continuous-time nature of most physical and biological processes, and makes it hard to accommodate data arriving at *irregular* temporal intervals. Neural ODEs are one solution, but they do not reach the DSR performance of PLRNNs and often lack their tractability. Here we develop theory for *continuous-time* PLRNNs (cPLRNNs): We present a novel algorithm for training and simulating such models, bypassing numerical integration by efficiently exploiting their PL structure. We further demonstrate how important topological objects like equilibria or limit cycles can be determined semi-analytically in trained models. We compare cPLRNNs to both their discrete-time cousins as well as Neural ODEs on DSR benchmarks, including systems with discontinuities which come with hard thresholds.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Recent years have seen a surge in data-driven surrogates for dynamical systems that can be orders of magnitude faster than numerical solvers. However, many machine learning-based models such as neural operators exhibit spectral bias, attenuating high-frequency components that often encode small-scale structure. This limitation is particularly damaging in applications such as weather forecasting, where misrepresented high frequencies can induce long-horizon instability. To address this issue, we propose multi-scale wavelet transformers (MSWTs), which learn system dynamics in a tokenized wavelet domain. The wavelet transform explicitly separates low- and high-frequency content across scales. MSWTs leverage a wavelet-preserving downsampling scheme that retains high-frequency features and employ wavelet-based attention to capture dependencies across scales and frequency bands. Experiments on chaotic dynamical systems show substantial error reductions and improved long-horizon spectral fidelity. On the ERA5 climate reanalysis, MSWTs further reduce climatological bias, demonstrating their effectiveness in a real-world forecasting setting.
Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences
The increasing impact of climate change and extreme weather events has spurred growing interest in deep learning for weather research. However, existing studies often rely on weather data in pixel space, which presents several challenges such as smooth outputs in model outputs, limited applicability to a single pressure-variable subset (PVS), and high data storage and computational costs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Weather Latent Autoencoder (WLA) that transforms weather data from pixel space to latent space, enabling efficient data representation. By decoupling weather reconstruction from downstream tasks, WLA improves the accuracy and sharpness of weather task model results. The incorporated Pressure-Variable Unified Module transforms multiple PVS into a unified representation, enhancing the adaptability of the model in multiple weather scenarios. Furthermore, weather tasks can be performed in a low-storage latent space of WLA rather than a high-storage pixel space, thus significantly reducing data storage and computational costs. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate its superior compression and reconstruction performance, enabling the creation of the ERA5-Latent dataset with unified representations of multiple PVS from ERA5 data. The compressed full PVS in the ERA5-Latent dataset reduces the original 244.34 TB of data to 0.43 TB. The downstream task further demonstrates that task models can apply to multiple PVS with low data costs in latent space and achieve superior performance compared to models in pixel space.
The increasing impact of climate change and extreme weather events has spurred growing interest in deep learning for weather research. However, existing studies often rely on weather data in pixel space, which presents several challenges such as smooth outputs in model outputs, limited applicability to a single pressure-variable subset (PVS), and high data storage and computational costs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Weather Latent Autoencoder (WLA) that transforms weather data from pixel space to latent space, enabling efficient data representation. By decoupling weather reconstruction from downstream tasks, WLA improves the accuracy and sharpness of weather task model results. The incorporated Pressure-Variable Unified Module transforms multiple PVS into a unified representation, enhancing the adaptability of the model in multiple weather scenarios. Furthermore, weather tasks can be performed in a low-storage latent space of WLA rather than a high-storage pixel space, thus significantly reducing data storage and computational costs. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate its superior compression and reconstruction performance, enabling the creation of the ERA5-Latent dataset with unified representations of multiple PVS from ERA5 data. The compressed full PVS in the ERA5-Latent dataset reduces the original 244.34 TB of data to 0.43 TB. The downstream task further demonstrates that task models can apply to multiple PVS with low data costs in latent space and achieve superior performance compared to models in pixel space.
General Machine Learning · Causality
Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have been proposed; however, they often exhibit a high sensitivity to noise, resulting in spurious causal inferences on real data. In this paper, we observe that the frequency spectra of many real-world time series follow a power-law distribution, notably due to an inherent self-organizing behavior. Leveraging this insight, we build a robust CD method based on the extraction of power‑law spectral features that amplify genuine causal signals. Our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets with known causal structures, demonstrating its robustness and practical relevance.
Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes
Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGPs) provide a principled probabilistic framework for modelling correlated outputs but face scalability bottlenecks when applied to datasets with high-dimensional output spaces. To maintain tractability, existing methods typically resort to restrictive assumptions, such as employing low-rank or sum-of-separable kernels, which can limit expressiveness. We propose the Transformed Latent Variable MOGP (T-LVMOGP), a novel framework that scales MOGPs to a massive number of outputs while preserving the capacity to capture meaningful inter-output dependencies. T-LVMOGP constructs a flexible multi-output deep kernel by mapping inputs and output-specific latent variables into an embedding space using a Lipschitz-regularised neural network. Combined with stochastic variational inference, our model effectively scales to high-dimensional output settings. Across diverse benchmarks, including climate modelling with over $10,000$ outputs and zero-inflated spatial transcriptomics data, T-LVMOGP outperforms baselines in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency.
Applications · Time Series
Irregular time series arise ubiquitously in real-world systems, where observations are sparse, asynchronous, and governed by underlying continuous-time dynamics. Existing continuous–discrete state-space models typically rely on path-based variational inference, which is computationally expensive or constrained by restrictive posterior assumptions. We propose SDEVI, a novel framework that performs variational inference directly on the joint distribution over discrete-time observations, while guaranteeing consistency with an underlying continuous process governed by a Stochastic Differential Equation(SDE). SDEVI employs a variational posterior induced by linear time-varying SDEs as a scalable inference backbone. To enable intricate dynamics modeling for real-world data, we introduce non-linear-SDE-induced variational inference and generalize our framework to the complex domain. Extensive experiments across healthcare, physics, climate, and IoT benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on interpolation, extrapolation, regression, and classification tasks.
General Machine Learning · Causality
Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of frequent regime switches and nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamics, particularly when there are instantaneous effects between the variables, e.g., due to slow rates of measurements. In this work, we establish the identifiability of both latent regimes and regime-dependent causal structures under temporal regime dependencies, nonlinear lagged and instantaneous effects, and independent noise from the exponential family. Our identifiability theory subsumes non-temporal mixtures of causal models. Furthermore, we introduce FlowMSM, a regime detection framework that can be paired with any stationary causal discovery method to recover regime-dependent causal structures. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and a financial economics dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to detect latent regimes and discover causal structures from non-stationary time series.
General Machine Learning · Causality
Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable causal relations, limiting its applicability to climate analysis. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that jointly uncovers (i) causal relations among observed variables and (ii) latent driving forces together with their interactions. We establish conditions under which both the hidden dynamic processes and the causal structure among observed variables are simultaneously identifiable from time-series data. Remarkably, our guarantees hold even in the nonparametric setting, leveraging contextual information to recover latent variables and observable relations. Building on these insights, we propose CaDRe (Causal Discovery and Representation learning), a time-series generative model with structural constraints that integrates CRL and causal discovery. Experiments on synthetic datasets validate our theoretical results. On real-world climate datasets, CaDRe not only delivers competitive forecasting accuracy but also recovers visualized causal graphs aligned with domain expertise, thereby offering interpretable insights into climate systems.