论文检索

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Alexander Reisach, Myriam Tami, Christof Seiler, Antoine Chambaz, Sebastian Weichwald

Additive Noise Models (ANMs) are a common model class for causal discovery from observational data. Due to a lack of real-world data for which an underlying ANM is known, ANMs with randomly sampled parameters are commonly used to simulate data for the evaluation of causal discovery algorithms. While some parameters may be fixed by explicit assumptions, fully specifying an ANM requires choosing all parameters. Reisach et al. (2021) show that, for many ANM parameter choices, sorting the variables by increasing variance yields an ordering close to a causal order and introduce ‘var-sortability’ to quantify this alignment. Since increasing variances may be unrealistic and cannot be exploited when data scales are arbitrary, ANM data are often rescaled to unit variance in causal discovery benchmarking.We show that synthetic ANM data are characterized by another pattern that is scale-invariant and thus persists even after standardization: the explainable fraction of a variable’s variance, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. The result is high ‘$R^2$-sortability’, meaning that sorting the variables by increasing $R^2$ yields an ordering close to a causal order. We propose a computationally efficient baseline algorithm termed ‘$R^2$-SortnRegress’ that exploits high $R^2$-sortability and that can match and exceed the performance of established causal discovery algorithms. We show analytically that sufficiently high edge weights lead to a relative decrease of the noise contributions along causal chains, resulting in increasingly deterministic relationships and high $R^2$. We characterize $R^2$-sortability on synthetic data with different simulation parameters and find high values in common settings. Our findings reveal high $R^2$-sortability as an assumption about the data generating process relevant to causal discovery and implicit in many ANM sampling schemes. It should be made explicit, as its prevalence in real-world data is an open question. For causal discovery benchmarking, we provide implementations of $R^2$-sortability, the $R^2$-SortnRegress algorithm, and ANM simulation procedures in our library CausalDisco at https://causaldisco.github.io/CausalDisco/.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Adrián Javaloy, Pablo Sanchez-Martin, Isabel Valera

In this work, we deepen on the use of normalizing flows for causal reasoning. Specifically, we first leverage recent results on non-linear ICA to show that causal models are identifiable from observational data given a causal ordering, and thus can be recovered using autoregressive normalizing flows (NFs). Second, we analyze different design and learning choices for *causal normalizing flows* to capture the underlying causal data-generating process. Third, we describe how to implement the *do-operator* in causal NFs, and thus, how to answer interventional and counterfactual questions. Finally, in our experiments, we validate our design and training choices through a comprehensive ablation study; compare causal NFs to other approaches for approximating causal models; and empirically demonstrate that causal NFs can be used to address real-world problems—where the presence of mixed discrete-continuous data and partial knowledge on the causal graph is the norm. The code for this work can be found at https://github.com/psanch21/causal-flows.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual inference aims to answer retrospective "what if" questions and thus belongs to the most fine-grained type of inference in Pearl's causality ladder. Existing methods for counterfactual inference with continuous outcomes aim at point identification and thus make strong and unnatural assumptions about the underlying structural causal model. In this paper, we relax these assumptions and aim at partial counterfactual identification of continuous outcomes, i.e., when the counterfactual query resides in an ignorance interval with informative bounds. We prove that, in general, the ignorance interval of the counterfactual queries has non-informative bounds, already when functions of structural causal models are continuously differentiable. As a remedy, we propose a novel sensitivity model called Curvature Sensitivity Model. This allows us to obtain informative bounds by bounding the curvature of level sets of the functions. We further show that existing point counterfactual identification methods are special cases of our Curvature Sensitivity Model when the bound of the curvature is set to zero. We then propose an implementation of our Curvature Sensitivity Model in the form of a novel deep generative model, which we call Augmented Pseudo-Invertible Decoder. Our implementation employs (i) residual normalizing flows with (ii) variational augmentations. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our Augmented Pseudo-Invertible Decoder. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first partial identification model for Markovian structural causal models with continuous outcomes.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Lai Wei, Muhammad Qasim Elahi, Mahsa Ghasemi, Murat Kocaoglu

Structural causal bandit provides a framework for online decision-making problems when causal information is available. It models the stochastic environment with a structural causal model (SCM) that governs the causal relations between random variables. In each round, an agent applies an intervention (or no intervention) by setting certain variables to some constants and receives a stochastic reward from a non-manipulable variable. Though the causal structure is given, the observational and interventional distributions of these random variables are unknown beforehand, and they can only be learned through interactions with the environment. Therefore, to maximize the expected cumulative reward, it is critical to balance the explore-versus-exploit tradeoff. We assume each random variable takes a finite number of distinct values, and consider a semi-Markovian setting, where random variables are affected by unobserved confounders. Using the canonical SCM formulation to discretize the domains of unobserved variables, we efficiently integrate samples to reduce model uncertainty. This gives the decision maker a natural advantage over those in a classical multi-armed bandit setup. We provide a logarithmic asymptotic regret lower bound for the structural causal bandit problem. Inspired by the lower bound, we design an algorithm that can utilize the causal structure to accelerate the learning process and take informative and rewarding interventions. We establish that our algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret and demonstrate that it outperforms the existing methods via simulations.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Jessica Dai, Paula Gradu, Christopher Harshaw

From clinical development of cancer therapies to investigations into partisan bias, adaptive sequential designs have become increasingly popular method for causal inference, as they offer the possibility of improved precision over their non-adaptive counterparts. However, even in simple settings (e.g. two treatments) the extent to which adaptive designs can improve precision is not sufficiently well understood. In this work, we study the problem of Adaptive Neyman Allocation in a design-based potential outcomes framework, where the experimenter seeks to construct an adaptive design which is nearly as efficient as the optimal (but infeasible) non-adaptive Neyman design, which has access to all potential outcomes. Motivated by connections to online optimization, we propose Neyman Ratio and Neyman Regret as two (equivalent) performance measures of adaptive designs for this problem. We present Clip-OGD, an adaptive design which achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ expected Neyman regret and thereby recovers the optimal Neyman variance in large samples. Finally, we construct a conservative variance estimator which facilitates the development of asymptotically valid confidence intervals. To complement our theoretical results, we conduct simulations using data from a microeconomic experiment.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Hao Wang, Jiajun Fan, Zhichao Chen, Haoxuan Li, Weiming Liu, Tianqiao Liu, Quanyu Dai, Yichao Wang, Zhenhua Dong, Ruiming Tang

Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to treatment selection bias. Prevalent methods mainly mitigate this issue by aligning different treatment groups in the latent space, the core of which is the calculation of distribution discrepancy. However, two issues that are often overlooked can render these methods invalid:(1) mini-batch sampling effects (MSE), where the calculated discrepancy is erroneous in non-ideal mini-batches with outcome imbalance and outliers;(2) unobserved confounder effects (UCE), where the unobserved confounders are not considered in the discrepancy calculation.Both of these issues invalidate the calculated discrepancy, mislead the training of estimators, and thus impede the handling of treatment selection bias.To tackle these issues, we propose Entire Space CounterFactual Regression (ESCFR), which is a new take on optimal transport technology in the context of causality.Specifically, based on the canonical optimal transport framework, we propose a relaxed mass-preserving regularizer to address the MSE issue and design a proximal factual outcome regularizer to handle the UCE issue.Extensive experiments demonstrate that ESCFR estimates distribution discrepancy accurately, handles the treatment selection bias effectively, and outperforms prevalent competitors significantly.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Zhongzhou Liu, Yuan Fang, Min Wu

Causality-based recommendation systems focus on the causal effects of user-item interactions resulting from item exposure (i.e., which items are recommended or exposed to the user), as opposed to conventional correlation-based recommendation. They are gaining popularity due to their multi-sided benefits to users, sellers and platforms alike. However, existing causality-based recommendation methods require additional input in the form of exposure data and/or propensity scores (i.e., the probability of exposure) for training. Such data, crucial for modeling causality in recommendation, are often not available in real-world situations due to technical or privacy constraints. In this paper, we bridge the gap by proposing a new framework, called Propensity Estimation for Causality-based Recommendation (PropCare). It can estimate the propensity and exposure from a more practical setup, where only interaction data are available *without* any ground truth on exposure or propensity in training and inference. We demonstrate that, by relating the pairwise characteristics between propensity and item popularity, PropCare enables competitive causality-based recommendation given only the conventional interaction data. We further present a theoretical analysis on the bias of the causal effect under our model estimation. Finally, we empirically evaluate PropCare through both quantitative and qualitative experiments.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Martin Saveski, Steven Jecmen, Nihar Shah, Johan Ugander

Peer review assignment algorithms aim to match research papers to suitable expert reviewers, working to maximize the quality of the resulting reviews. A key challenge in designing effective assignment policies is evaluating how changes to the assignment algorithm map to changes in review quality. In this work, we leverage recently proposed policies that introduce randomness in peer-review assignment—in order to mitigate fraud—as a valuable opportunity to evaluate counterfactual assignment policies. Specifically, we exploit how such randomized assignments provide a positive probability of observing the reviews of many assignment policies of interest. To address challenges in applying standard off-policy evaluation methods, such as violations of positivity, we introduce novel methods for partial identification based on monotonicity and Lipschitz smoothness assumptions for the mapping between reviewer-paper covariates and outcomes. We apply our methods to peer-review data from two computer science venues: the TPDP'21 workshop (95 papers and 35 reviewers) and the AAAI'22 conference (8,450 papers and 3,145 reviewers). We consider estimates of (i) the effect on review quality when changing weights in the assignment algorithm, e.g., weighting reviewers' bids vs. textual similarity (between the review's past papers and the submission), and (ii) the "cost of randomization", capturing the difference in expected quality between the perturbed and unperturbed optimal match. We find that placing higher weight on text similarity results in higher review quality and that introducing randomization in the reviewer-paper assignment only marginally reduces the review quality. Our methods for partial identification may be of independent interest, while our off-policy approach can likely find use in evaluating a broad class of algorithmic matching systems.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Rickard Karlsson, Jesse Krijthe

A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify the presence of hidden confounding factors from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms underlying the data-generating process, we demonstrate a way to detect unobserved confounders when having multiple observational datasets coming from different environments. We present a theory for testable conditional independencies that are only absent when there is hidden confounding and examine cases where we violate its assumptions: degenerate & dependent mechanisms, and faithfulness violations. Additionally, we propose a procedure to test these independencies and study its empirical finite-sample behavior using simulation studies and semi-synthetic data based on a real-world dataset. In most cases, the proposed procedure correctly predicts the presence of hidden confounding, particularly when the confounding bias is large.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Waverly Wei, Xinwei Ma, Jingshen Wang

Randomized experiments have been the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, spanning various fields, including social sciences, biomedical studies, and e-commerce. The classical complete randomization approach assigns treatments based on a pre-specified probability and may lead to inefficient use of data. Adaptive experiments improve upon complete randomization by sequentially learning and updating treatment assignment probabilities using accrued evidence during the experiment. Hence, they can help achieve efficient data use and higher estimation efficiency. However, their application can also raise fairness and equity concerns, as assignment probabilities may vary drastically across groups of participants. Furthermore, when treatment is expected to be extremely beneficial to certain groups of participants, it is more appropriate to expose many of these participants to favorable treatment. In response to these challenges, we propose a fair adaptive experiment strategy that simultaneously enhances data use efficiency, achieves an ``envy-free'' treatment assignment guarantee, and improves the overall welfare of participants. An important feature of our proposed strategy is that we do not impose parametric modeling assumptions on the outcome variables, making it more versatile and applicable to a wider array of applications. Through our theoretical investigation, we characterize the convergence rate of the estimated treatment effects and the associated standard deviations at the group level and further prove that our adaptive treatment assignment algorithm, despite not having a closed-form expression, approaches the optimal allocation rule asymptotically. Our proof strategy takes into account the fact that the allocation decisions in our design depend on sequentially accumulated data, which poses a significant challenge in characterizing the properties and conducting statistical inference of our method. We further provide simulation evidence and two synthetic data studies to showcase the performance of our fair adaptive experiment strategy.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Zeyu Zhang, Chaozhuo Li, Xu Chen, Xing Xie

This paper studies the problem of active causal discovery when the experiments can be done based on multi-fidelity oracles, where higher fidelity experiments are more precise and expensive, while the lower ones are cheaper but less accurate. In this paper, we formally define the task of multi-fidelity active causal discovery, and design a probabilistic model for solving this problem. In specific, we first introduce a mutual-information based acquisition function to determine which variable should be intervened at which fidelity, and then a cascading model is proposed to capture the correlations between different fidelity oracles. Beyond the above basic framework, we also extend it to the batch intervention scenario. We find that the theoretical foundations behind the widely used and efficient greedy method do not hold in our problem. To solve this problem, we introduce a new concept called $\epsilon$-submodular, and design a constraint based fidelity model to theoretically validate the greedy method. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Julius von Kügelgen, Michel Besserve, Liang Wendong, Luigi Gresele, Armin Kekić, Elias Bareinboim, David Blei, Bernhard Schölkopf

We study causal representation learning, the task of inferring latent causal variables and their causal relations from high-dimensional functions (“mixtures”) of the variables. Prior work relies on weak supervision, in the form of counterfactual pre- and post-intervention views or temporal structure; places restrictive assumptions, such as linearity, on the mixing function or latent causal model; or requires partial knowledge of the generative process, such as the causal graph or intervention targets. We instead consider the general setting in which both the causal model and the mixing function are nonparametric. The learning signal takes the form of multiple datasets, or environments, arising from unknown interventions in the underlying causal model. Our goal is to identify both the ground truth latents and their causal graph up to a set of ambiguities which we show to be irresolvable from interventional data. We study the fundamental setting of two causal variables and prove that the observational distribution and one perfect intervention per node suffice for identifiability, subject to a genericity condition. This condition rules out spurious solutions that involve fine-tuning of the intervened and observational distributions, mirroring similar conditions for nonlinear cause-effect inference. For an arbitrary number of variables, we show that at least one pair of distinct perfect interventional domains per node guarantees identifiability. Further, we demonstrate that the strengths of causal influences among the latent variables are preserved by all equivalent solutions, rendering the inferred representation appropriate for drawing causal conclusions from new data. Our study provides the first identifiability results for the general nonparametric setting with unknown interventions, and elucidates what is possible and impossible for causal representation learning without more direct supervision.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Liang Wendong, Armin Kekić, Julius von Kügelgen, Simon Buchholz, Michel Besserve, Luigi Gresele, Bernhard Schölkopf

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) aims to recover independent latent variables from observed mixtures thereof. Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims instead to infer causally related (thus often statistically _dependent_) latent variables, together with the unknown graph encoding their causal relationships. We introduce an intermediate problem termed _Causal Component Analysis (CauCA)_. CauCA can be viewed as a generalization of ICA, modelling the causal dependence among the latent components, and as a special case of CRL. In contrast to CRL, it presupposes knowledge of the causal graph, focusing solely on learning the unmixing function and the causal mechanisms. Any impossibility results regarding the recovery of the ground truth in CauCA also apply for CRL, while possibility results may serve as a stepping stone for extensions to CRL. We characterize CauCA identifiability from multiple datasets generated through different types of interventions on the latent causal variables. As a corollary, this interventional perspective also leads to new identifiability results for nonlinear ICA—a special case of CauCA with an empty graph—requiring strictly fewer datasets than previous results. We introduce a likelihood-based approach using normalizing flows to estimate both the unmixing function and the causal mechanisms, and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive synthetic experiments in the CauCA and ICA setting.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Siyuan Guo, Viktor Toth, Bernhard Schölkopf, Ferenc Huszar

Constraint-based causal discovery methods leverage conditional independence tests to infer causal relationships in a wide variety of applications. Just as the majority of machine learning methods, existing work focuses on studying $\textit{independent and identically distributed}$ data. However, it is known that even with infinite $i.i.d.\$ data, constraint-based methods can only identify causal structures up to broad Markov equivalence classes, posing a fundamental limitation for causal discovery. In this work, we observe that exchangeable data contains richer conditional independence structure than $i.i.d.\$ data, and show how the richer structure can be leveraged for causal discovery. We first present causal de Finetti theorems, which state that exchangeable distributions with certain non-trivial conditional independences can always be represented as $\textit{independent causal mechanism (ICM)}$ generative processes. We then present our main identifiability theorem, which shows that given data from an ICM generative process, its unique causal structure can be identified through performing conditional independence tests. We finally develop a causal discovery algorithm and demonstrate its applicability to inferring causal relationships from multi-environment data.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Jia Gu, Caizhi Tang, Han Yan, Qing Cui, Longfei Li, Jun Zhou

This paper proposes a novel strategy for estimating the heterogeneous treatment effect called the Fused and Accurate Shrinkage Tree ($\mathrm{FAST}$). Our approach utilizes both trial and observational data to improve the accuracy and robustness of the estimator. Inspired by the concept of shrinkage estimation in statistics, we develop an optimal weighting scheme and a corresponding estimator that balances the unbiased estimator based on the trial data with the potentially biased estimator based on the observational data. Specifically, combined with tree-based techniques, we introduce a new split criterion that utilizes both trial data and observational data to more accurately estimate the treatment effect. Furthermore, we confirm the consistency of our proposed tree-based estimator and demonstrate the effectiveness of our criterion in reducing prediction error through theoretical analysis. The advantageous finite sample performance of the $\mathrm{FAST}$ and its ensemble version over existing methods is demonstrated via simulations and real data analysis.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Jiarong Ding, Xuehu ZHU

High-dimensional mediation analysis is often associated with a multiple testing problem for detecting significant mediators. Assessing the uncertainty of this detecting process via false discovery rate (FDR) has garnered great interest. To control the FDR in multiple testing, two essential steps are involved: ranking and selection. Existing approaches either construct p-values without calibration or disregard the joint information across tests, leading to conservation in FDR control or non-optimal ranking rules for multiple hypotheses. In this paper, we develop an adaptive mediation detection procedure (referred to as "AMDP") to identify relevant mediators while asymptotically controlling the FDR in high-dimensional mediation analysis. AMDP produces the optimal rule for ranking hypotheses and proposes a data-driven strategy to determine the threshold for mediator selection. This novel method captures information from the proportions of composite null hypotheses and the distribution of p-values, which turns the high dimensionality into an advantage instead of a limitation. The numerical studies on synthetic and real data sets illustrate the performances of AMDP compared with existing approaches.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Zhenyu Zhu, Francesco Locatello, Volkan Cevher

This paper provides statistical sample complexity bounds for score-matching and its applications in causal discovery. We demonstrate that accurate estimation of the score function is achievable by training a standard deep ReLU neural network using stochastic gradient descent. We establish bounds on the error rate of recovering causal relationships using the score-matching-based causal discovery method of Rolland et al. [2022], assuming a sufficiently good estimation of the score function. Finally, we analyze the upper bound of score-matching estimation within the score-based generative modeling, which has been applied for causal discovery but is also of independent interest within the domain of generative models.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Panagiotis Misiakos, Chris Wendler, Markus Püschel

We present a novel perspective and algorithm for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data generated by a linear structural equation model (SEM). First, we show that a linear SEM can be viewed as a linear transform that, in prior work, computes the data from a dense input vector of random valued root causes (as we will call them) associated with the nodes. Instead, we consider the case of (approximately) few root causes and also introduce noise in the measurement of the data. Intuitively, this means that the DAG data is produced by few data generating events whose effect percolates through the DAG. We prove identifiability in this new setting and show that the true DAG is the global minimizer of the $L^0$-norm of the vector of root causes. For data satisfying the few root causes assumption, we show superior performance compared to prior DAG learning methods.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Trang Nguyen, Amin Mansouri, Kanika Madan, Khuong Duy Nguyen, Kartik Ahuja, Dianbo Liu, Yoshua Bengio

Agents with the ability to comprehend and reason about the dynamics of objects would be expected to exhibit improved robustness and generalization in novel scenarios. However, achieving this capability necessitates not only an effective scene representation but also an understanding of the mechanisms governing interactions among object subsets. Recent studies have made significant progress in representing scenes using object slots. In this work, we introduce Reusable Slotwise Mechanisms, or RSM, a framework that models object dynamics by leveraging communication among slots along with a modular architecture capable of dynamically selecting reusable mechanisms for predicting the future states of each object slot. Crucially, RSM leverages the Central Contextual Information (CCI), enabling selected mechanisms to access the remaining slots through a bottleneck, effectively allowing for modeling of higher order and complex interactions that might require a sparse subset of objects. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of RSM compared to state-of-the-art methods across various future prediction and related downstream tasks, including Visual Question Answering and action planning. Furthermore, we showcase RSM’s Out-of-Distribution generalization ability to handle scenes in intricate scenarios.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Sina Akbari, Fateme Jamshidi, Ehsan Mokhtarian, Matthew Vowels, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.