Traditional recurrent neural network architectures, such as long short-term memory neural networks (LSTM), have historically held a prominent role in time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. While the recently introduced sLSTM for Natural Language Processing (NLP) introduces exponential gating and memory mixing that are beneficial for long term sequential learning, its potential short memory issue is a barrier to applying sLSTM directly in TSF. To address this, we propose a simple yet efficient algorithm named P-sLSTM, which is built upon sLSTM by incorporating patching and channel independence. These modifications substantially enhance sLSTM's performance in TSF, achieving state-of-the-art results. Furthermore, we provide theoretical justifications for our design, and conduct extensive comparative and analytical experiments to fully validate the efficiency and superior performance of our model.
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Applications · Neuroscience, Cognitive Science
Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are bio-inspired networks that mimic how neurons in the brain communicate through discrete spikes, which have great potential in various tasks due to their energy efficiency and temporal processing capabilities. SNNs with self-attention mechanisms (spiking Transformers) have recently shown great advancements in various tasks, and inspired by traditional Transformers, several studies have demonstrated that spiking absolute positional encoding can help capture sequential relationships for input data, enhancing the capabilities of spiking Transformers for tasks such as sequential modeling and image classification. However, how to incorporate relative positional information into SNNs remains a challenge. In this paper, we introduce several strategies to approximate relative positional encoding (RPE) in spiking Transformers while preserving the binary nature of spikes. Firstly, we formally prove that encoding relative distances with Gray Code ensures that the binary representations of positional indices maintain a constant Hamming distance whenever their decimal values differ by a power of two, and we propose **Gray-PE** based on this property. In addition, we propose another RPE method called **Log-PE**, which combines the logarithmic form of the relative distance matrix directly into the spiking attention map. Furthermore, we extend our RPE methods to a two-dimensional form, making them suitable for processing image patches. We evaluate our RPE methods on various tasks, including time series forecasting, text classification, and patch-based image classification, and the experimental results demonstrate a satisfying performance gain by incorporating our RPE methods across many architectures. Our results provide fresh perspectives on designing spiking Transformers to advance their sequential modeling capability, thereby expanding their applicability across various domains. Our code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/SeqSNN.
Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders
Probabilistic time series forecasting, essential in domains like healthcare and neuroscience, requires models capable of capturing uncertainty and intricate temporal dependencies. While deep learning has advanced forecasting, generating calibrated probability distributions over continuous future values remains challenging. We introduce Temporal Generative Flow Networks (Temporal GFNs), adapting Generative Flow Networks (GFNs) – a powerful framework for generating compositional objects – to this sequential prediction task. GFNs learn policies to construct objects (eg. forecast trajectories) step-by-step, sampling final objects proportionally to a reward signal. However, applying GFNs directly to continuous time series necessitates addressing their inherently discrete action spaces and ensuring differentiability. Our framework tackles this by representing time series segments as states and sequentially generating future values via quantized actions chosen by a forward policy. We introduce two key innovations: (1) An adaptive, curriculum-based quantization strategy that dynamically adjusts the number of discretization bins based on reward improvement and policy entropy, balancing precision and exploration throughout training. (2) A straight-through estimator mechanism enabling the forward policy to output both discrete (hard) samples for trajectory construction and continuous (soft) samples for stable gradient propagation. Training utilizes a trajectory balance loss objective, ensuring flow consistency, augmented by an entropy regularizer. We provide rigorous theoretical bounds on the quantization error's impact and the adaptive factor's range. We demonstrate how Temporal GFNs offer a principled way to leverage the structured generation capabilities of GFNs for probabilistic forecasting in continuous domains.
Modeling hierarchical latent dynamics behind time series data is critical for capturing temporal dependencies across multiple levels of abstraction in real-world tasks. However, existing temporal causal representation learning methods fail to capture such dynamics, as they fail to recover the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables from \textit{single-timestep observed variables}. Interestingly, we find that the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables can be uniquely determined using three conditionally independent observations. Building on this insight, we propose a Causally Hierarchical Latent Dynamic (CHiLD) identification framework. Our approach first employs temporal contextual observed variables to identify the joint distribution of multi-layer latent variables. Sequentially, we exploit the natural sparsity of the hierarchical structure among latent variables to identify latent variables within each layer. Guided by the theoretical results, we develop a time series generative model grounded in variational inference. This model incorporates a contextual encoder to reconstruct multi-layer latent variables and normalize flow-based hierarchical prior networks to impose the independent noise condition of hierarchical latent dynamics. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical claims and demonstrate the effectiveness of CHiLD in modeling hierarchical latent dynamics.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for obtaining point estimates from spatiotemporal data and correlated time series. However, the problem of exploiting relational structures to estimate the uncertainty of such predictions has been largely overlooked in the same context. To this end, we propose a novel distribution-free approach based on the conformal prediction framework and quantile regression. Despite the recent applications of conformal prediction to sequential data, existing methods operate independently on each target time series and do not account for relationships among them when constructing the prediction interval. We fill this void by introducing a novel conformal prediction method based on graph deep learning operators. Our approach, named Conformal Relational Prediction (CoRel), does not require the relational structure (graph) to be known a priori and can be applied on top of any pre-trained predictor. Additionally, CoRel includes an adaptive component to handle non-exchangeable data and changes in the input time series. Our approach provides accurate coverage and achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification in relevant benchmarks.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Analyzing inherent temporal dynamics is a critical pathway for time series classification, where Reservoir Computing (RC) exhibits effectiveness and high efficiency. However, typical RC considers recursive updates from adjacent states, struggling with long-term dependencies. In response, this paper proposes a Spectral-Aware Reservoir Computing framework (SARC), incorporating spectral insights to enhance long-term dependency modeling. Prominent frequencies are initially extracted to reveal explicit or implicit cyclical patterns. For each prominent frequency, SARC further integrates a Frequency-informed Reservoir Network (FreqRes) to adequately capture both sequential and cyclical dynamics, thereby deriving effective dynamic features. Synthesizing these features across various frequencies, SARC offers a multi-scale analysis of temporal dynamics and improves the modeling of long-term dependencies. Experiments on public datasets demonstrate that SARC achieves state-of-the-art results, while maintaining high efficiency compared to existing methods.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Foundation models have emerged as a promising approach in time series forecasting (TSF). Existing approaches either repurpose large language models (LLMs) or build large-scale time series datasets to develop TSF foundation models for universal forecasting. However, these methods face challenges due to the severe cross-domain gap or in-domain heterogeneity. This paper explores a new road to building a TSF foundation model from rich, high-quality natural images. Our key insight is that a visual masked autoencoder, pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset, can naturally be a numeric series forecaster. By reformulating TSF as an image reconstruction task, we bridge the gap between image pre-training and TSF downstream tasks. Surprisingly, without further adaptation in the time series domain, the proposed VisionTS could achieve better zero-shot forecast performance than existing TSF foundation models. With fine-tuning for one epoch, VisionTS could further improve the forecasting and achieve state-of-the-art performance in most cases. Extensive experiments reveal intrinsic similarities between images and real-world time series, suggesting that visual models may offer a "free lunch" for TSF and highlight the potential for future cross-modality research. Our code is available in the https://github.com/Keytoyze/VisionTS.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
We introduce $\texttt{TimeMCL}$, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit *quantization* objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have demonstrated remarkable potential across many domains, including computer vision and natural language processing, owing to their energy efficiency and biological plausibility. However, their application in long-term prediction tasks remains underexplored, which is primarily due to two critical challenges: (1) current SNN encoding methods are unable to effectively encode long temporal information, leading to increased computational complexity and energy consumption; (2) though Transformer-based models have achieved state-of-the-art accuracy in temporal prediction tasks, the absence of proper positional encoding for spiking self-attention restricts Spiking Transformer from effectively utilizing positional information, resulting in performance degradation. To address these challenges, we introduce an attention-free framework, **Spik**ing **F**ourier Network (**SpikF**), that encodes input sequences in patches and employs an innovative frequency domain selection mechanism to effectively utilize the sequential properties of time-series data. Extensive evaluations on eight well-established long-term prediction datasets demonstrate that SpikF achieves an averaged $1.9\\%$ reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to state-of-the-art models, while lowering total energy consumption by $3.16\times$. Our code is available at https://github.com/WWJ-creator/SpikF.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Shapelets are discriminative subsequences (or shapes) with high interpretability in time series classification. Due to the time-intensive nature of shapelet discovery, existing shapelet-based methods mainly focus on selecting discriminative shapes while discarding others to achieve candidate subsequence sparsification. However, this approach may exclude beneficial shapes and overlook the varying contributions of shapelets to classification performance. To this end, we propose a Soft sparse Shapes (SoftShape) model for efficient time series classification. Our approach mainly introduces soft shape sparsification and soft shape learning blocks. The former transforms shapes into soft representations based on classification contribution scores, merging lower-scored ones into a single shape to retain and differentiate all subsequence information. The latter facilitates intra- and inter-shape temporal pattern learning, improving model efficiency by using sparsified soft shapes as inputs. Specifically, we employ a learnable router to activate a subset of class-specific expert networks for intra-shape pattern learning. Meanwhile, a shared expert network learns inter-shape patterns by converting sparsified shapes into sequences. Extensive experiments show that SoftShape outperforms state-of-the-art methods and produces interpretable results.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
This work introduces Residual TPP, a novel, unified, and lightweight approach for analyzing event stream data. It leverages the strengths of both simple statistical TPPs and expressive neural TPPs to achieve superior performance. Specifically, we propose the Residual Events Decomposition (RED) technique in temporal point processes, which defines a weight function to quantify how well the intensity function captures the event characteristics. The RED serves as a flexible, plug-and-play module that can be integrated with any TPP model in a wide range of tasks. It enables the identification of events for which the intensity function provides a poor fit, referred to as residual events. By combining RED with a Hawkes process, we capture the self-exciting nature of the data and identify residual events. Then an arbitrary neural TPP is employed to take care of residual events. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Residual TPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art goodness-of-fit and prediction performance in multiple domains and offers significant computational advantages as well.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
We consider the problem of length generalization in sequence prediction. We define a new metric of performance in this setting – the Asymmetric-Regret– which measures regret against a benchmark predictor with longer context length than available to the learner. We continue by studying this concept through the lens of the spectral filter-ing algorithm. We present a gradient-based learn-ing algorithm that provably achieves length generalization for linear dynamical systems. We conclude with proof-of-concept experiments which are consistent with our theory.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Anomaly detection in continuous-time event sequences is a crucial task in safety-critical applications. While existing methods primarily focus on developing a superior test statistic, they fail to provide guarantees regarding the false positive rate (FPR), which undermines their reliability in practical deployments. In this paper, we propose CADES (Conformal Anomaly Detection in Event Sequences), a novel test procedure based on conformal inference for the studied task with finite-sample FPR control. Specifically, by using the time-rescaling theorem, we design two powerful non-conformity scores tailored to event sequences, which exhibit complementary sensitivities to different abnormal patterns. CADES combines these scores with Bonferroni correction to leverage their respective strengths and addresses non-identifiability issues of existing methods. Theoretically, we prove the validity of CADES and further provide strong guarantees on calibration-conditional FPR control. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets, covering various types of anomalies, demonstrate that CADES outperforms state-of-the-art methods while maintaining FPR control.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling time series. However, existing NODE- based methods often focus solely on the surface-level dynamics derived from observed states, which limits their ability to capture more complex underlying behaviors. To overcome this challenge, we propose KoNODE, a Koopman-driven NODE framework that explicitly models the evolution of ODE parameters over time to encode deep-level information. KoNODE captures the essential yet simple intrinsic linear dynamics that govern the surface dynamics by employing Koopman operators. Our framework operates at three hierarchical levels: the observed state dynamics, the parameter dynamics, and the Koopman linear dynamics, representing the fundamental driving rules of the state dynamics. The proposed approach offers significant improvements in two critical time series tasks: long-term prediction (enabled by the simple linear dynamics) and generalization to new data (driven by the evolving ODE parameters). We validate KoNODE through experiments on synthetic data from complex dynamic systems and real-world datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in practical scenarios.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
This paper introduces Graphon Attachment Network Models (GAN-M), a novel framework for modeling evolving networks with rich structural dependencies, grounded in graphon theory. GAN-M provides a flexible and interpretable foundation for studying network formation by leveraging graphon functions to define attachment probabilities, thereby combining the strengths of graphons with a temporal perspective. A key contribution of this work is a methodology for learning structural changes in these networks over time. Our approach uses graph counts—frequencies of substructures such as triangles and stars—to capture shifts in network topology. We propose a new statistic designed to learn changes in the resulting piecewise polynomial signals and develop an efficient method for change detection, supported by theoretical guarantees. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across various network settings, highlighting its potential for dynamic network analysis.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) underpins real-time monitoring in cloud services and web systems, allowing rapid identification of anomalies to prevent costly failures. Most TSAD methods driven by forecasting models tend to overfit by emphasizing minor fluctuations. Our analysis reveals that effective TSAD should focus on modeling "normal" behavior through smooth local patterns. To achieve this, we reformulate time series modeling as approximating the series with smooth univariate functions. The local smoothness of each univariate function ensures that the fitted time series remains resilient against local disturbances. However, a direct KAN implementation proves susceptible to these disturbances due to the inherently localized characteristics of B-spline functions. We thus propose KAN-AD, replacing B-splines with truncated Fourier expansions and introducing a novel lightweight learning mechanism that emphasizes global patterns while staying robust to local disturbances. On four popular TSAD benchmarks, KAN-AD achieves an average 15% improvement in detection accuracy (with peaks exceeding 27%) over state-of-the-art baselines. Remarkably, it requires fewer than 1,000 trainable parameters, resulting in a 50% faster inference speed compared to the original KAN, demonstrating the approach's efficiency and practical viability.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Temporal sequences, even after stationarization, often exhibit leptokurtic distributions with fat tails and persistent distribution shifts. These properties destabilize feature dynamics, amplify model variance, and hinder model convergence in time series forecasting. To address this, we propose Morphing-Flow (MoF), a framework that combines a spline-based transform layer (Flow) and a test-time-trained method (Morph), which adaptively normalizes non-stationary, fat-tailed distributions while preserving critical extreme features. MoF ensures that inputs remain within a network’s effective activation space—a structured, normal-like distribution—even under distributional drift. Experiments across eight datasets show that MoF achieves state-of-the-art performance: With a simple linear backbone architecture, it matches the performance of state-of-the-art models on datasets such as Electricity and ETTh2. When paired with a patch-based Mamba architecture, MoF outperforms its closest competitor by 6.3% on average and reduces forecasting errors in fat-tailed datasets such as Exchange by 21.7%. Moreover, MoF acts as a plug-and-play module, boosting performance in existing models without architectural changes.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are considered promising energy-efficient models due to their dynamic capability to process spatial-temporal spike information. Existing work has demonstrated that SNNs exhibit temporal heterogeneity, which leads to diverse outputs of SNNs at different time steps and has the potential to enhance their performance. Although SNNs obtained by direct training methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, current methods introduce limited temporal heterogeneity through the dynamics of spiking neurons or network structures. They lack the improvement of temporal heterogeneity through the lens of the gradient. In this paper, we first conclude that the diversity of the temporal logit gradients in current methods is limited. This leads to insufficient temporal heterogeneity and results in temporally miscalibrated SNNs with degraded performance. Based on the above analysis, we propose a Temporal Model Calibration (TMC) method, which can be seen as a logit gradient rescaling mechanism across time steps. Experimental results show that our method can improve the temporal logit gradient diversity and generate temporally calibrated SNNs with enhanced performance. In particular, our method achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on ImageNet, DVSCIFAR10, and N-Caltech101. Codes are available at https://github.com/zju-bmi-lab/TMC.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Accurately modeling and predicting complex dynamical systems, particularly those involving force exchange and dissipation, is crucial for applications ranging from fluid dynamics to robotics, but presents significant challenges due to the intricate interplay of geometric constraints and energy transfer. This paper introduces Geometric Contact Flows (GFC), a novel framework leveraging Riemannian and Contact geometry as inductive biases to learn such systems. GCF constructs a latent contact Hamiltonian model encoding desirable properties like stability or energy conservation. An ensemble of contactomorphisms then adapts this model to the target dynamics while preserving these properties. This ensemble allows for uncertainty-aware geodesics that attract the system’s behavior toward the data support, enabling robust generalization and adaptation to unseen scenarios. Experiments on learning dynamics for physical systems and for controlling robots on interaction tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Automatically extracting robust representations from large and complex time series data is becoming imperative for several real-world applications. Unfortunately, the potential of common neural network architectures in capturing invariant properties of time series remains relatively underexplored. For instance, convolutional layers often fail to capture underlying patterns in time series inputs that encompass strong deformations, such as trends. Indeed, invariances to some deformations may be critical for solving complex time series tasks, such as classification, while guaranteeing good generalization performance.To address these challenges, we mathematically formulate and technically design efficient and hard-coded *invariant convolutions* for specific group actions applicable to the case of time series.We construct these convolutions by considering specific sets of deformations commonly observed in time series, including *scaling*, *offset shift*, and *trend*.We further combine the proposed invariant convolutions with standard convolutions in single embedding layers, and we showcase the layer capacity to capture complex invariant time series properties in several scenarios.