Information-based data selection for instruction tuning is compelling: maximizing the log-determinant of the Fisher information yields a monotone submodular objective, enabling greedy algorithms to achieve a $(1-1/e)$ approximation under a cardinality budget. In practice, however, we identify alleviating gradient conflicts, misalignment between per-sample gradients, is a key factor that slows down the decay of marginal log-determinant information gains, thereby preventing significant loss of information. We formalize this via an $\varepsilon$-decomposition that quantifies the deviation from ideal submodularity as a function of conflict statistics, yielding data-dependent approximation factors that tighten as conflicts diminish. Guided by this analysis, we propose SPICE, a conflict-aware selector that maximizes information while penalizing misalignment, and that supports early stopping and proxy models for efficiency. Empirically, SPICE selects subsets with higher log-determinant information than original criteria, and these informational gains translate into performance improvements: across 8 benchmarks with LLaMA2-7B and Qwen2-7B, SPICE uses only 10% of the data, yet matches or exceeds 6 methods including full-data tuning. This achieves performance improvements with substantially lower training cost. Code is available at https://github.com/Chang-pw/SPICE#.
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Theory · Probabilistic Methods
Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) has fueled major breakthroughs in representation learning and generative modeling. Yet a long-standing challenge remains: accurately estimating ratios between distributions that differ substantially, which significantly limits the applicability of NCE on modern high-dimensional and multimodal datasets. We revisit this problem from a less explored perspective: the magnitude of the noise distribution. Specifically, we show that with a virtually scaled (i.e., artificially increased) noise magnitude, the gradient of the NCE objective can closely align with that of Maximum Likelihood, enabling a trajectory-wise approximation from NCE to MLE, and faster convergence both theoretically and empirically. Building on this insight, we introduce "Noisier" NCE, a simple drop-in modification to vanilla NCE that incurs little to no extra computational cost, while effectively handling density-ratio estimation in challenging regimes where traditional MLE and NCE struggle. Beyond improving classical density-ratio learning, "Noisier" NCE proves broadly applicable: it achieves strong results across image modeling, anomaly detection, and offline black-box optimization. On CIFAR-10 and ImageNet64×64 datasets, it yields 10-step and even 1-step samplers that match or surpass state-of-the-art methods, while cutting training iterations by up to half.
Deep Learning · Algorithms
Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems leverage interconnected knowledge structures to capture complex relationships that flat retrieval struggles with, enabling multi-hop reasoning. Yet most existing graph-based methods suffer from (i) heuristic designs lacking theoretical guarantees for subgraph quality or relevance and/or (ii) the use of static exploration strategies that ignore the query's holistic meaning, retrieving neighborhoods or communities regardless of intent. We propose \textit{Query-Aware Flow Diffusion RAG} (QAFD-RAG), a training-free framework that dynamically adapts graph traversal to each query's holistic semantics. The central innovation is \emph{query-aware traversal}: during graph exploration, edges are dynamically weighted by how well their endpoints align with the query's embedding, guiding flow along semantically relevant paths while avoiding structurally connected but irrelevant regions. These query-specific reasoning subgraphs enable the first statistical guarantees for query-aware graph retrieval, showing that QAFD-RAG recovers relevant subgraphs with high probability under mild signal-to-noise conditions. The algorithm converges exponentially fast, with complexity scaling with the retrieved subgraph size rather than the full graph. Experiments on question answering and text-to-SQL tasks demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art graph-based RAG methods.
Reinforcement Learning · Batch/Offline
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn the optimal policy from a fixed dataset generated by behavior policies without additional environment interactions. One common challenge that arises in this setting is the out-of-distribution (OOD) error, which occurs when the policy leaves the training distribution. Prior methods penalize a statistical distance term to keep the policy close to the behavior policy, but this constrains policy improvement and may not completely prevent OOD actions. Another challenge is that the optimal policy distribution can be multimodal and difficult to represent. Recent works apply diffusion or flow policies to address this problem, but it is unclear how to avoid OOD errors while retaining policy expressiveness. We propose ReFORM, an offline RL method based on flow policies that enforces the less restrictive support constraint by construction. ReFORM learns a behavior cloning (BC) flow policy with a bounded source distribution to capture the support of the action distribution, then optimizes a reflected flow that generates bounded noise for the BC flow while keeping the support, to maximize the performance. Across 40 challenging tasks from the OGBench benchmark with datasets of varying quality and using a constant set of hyperparameters for all tasks, ReFORM dominates all baselines with hand-tuned hyperparameters on the performance profile curves.
Applications · Time Series
Synthetic time series are vital for data augmentation, stress testing, and prototyping in quantitative finance. Yet in cryptocurrency markets, characterized by 24/7 trading, extreme volatility, and rapid regime shifts, existing Time Series Generation (TSG) methods and benchmarks often fall short, jeopardizing practical utility. Most prior work targets non-financial or traditional financial domains, focuses narrowly on classification and forecasting while neglecting crypto-specific complexities, and lacks critical financial evaluations, particularly for trading applications. To bridge these gaps, we introduce \textbf{CTBench}, the first \textbf{C}ryptocurrency \textbf{T}ime series generation \textbf{Bench}mark. It curates an open-source dataset of 452 tokens and evaluates models across 13 metrics spanning forecasting accuracy, rank fidelity, trading performance, risk assessment, and computational efficiency. A key innovation is a dual-task evaluation framework: the Predictive Utility measures how well synthetic data preserves temporal and cross-sectional patterns for forecasting, while the Statistical Arbitrage assesses whether reconstructed series support mean-reverting signals for trading. We systematically benchmark eight state-of-the-art models from five TSG families across four market regimes, revealing trade-offs between statistical quality and real-world profitability. Notably, CTBench provides ranking analysis and practical guidance for deploying TSG models in crypto analytics and trading applications. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/MilleXi/CTBench/}.
Applications · Chemistry and Drug Discovery
Molecular Dynamics (MD) is a powerful computational microscope for probing protein functions. However, the need for fine-grained integration and the long timescales of biomolecular events make MD computationally expensive. To address this, several generative models have been proposed to generate surrogate trajectories at lower cost. Yet, these models typically learn a fixed-lag transition density, causing the training signal to be dominated by frequent but uninformative transitions. We introduce a new class of generative models, **MSM Emulators**, which instead learn to sample transitions across discrete states defined by an underlying Markov State Model (MSM). We instantiate this class with Markov Space Flow Matching (MarS-FM), whose sampling offers more than two orders of magnitude speedup compared to implicit- or explicit-solvent MD simulations. We benchmark Mars-FM ability to reproduce MD statistics through structural observables such as RMSD, radius of gyration, and secondary structure content. Our evaluation spans protein domains (up to 500 residues) with significant chemical and structural diversity, including unfolding events, and enforces strict sequence dissimilarity between training and test sets to assess generalization. Across all metrics, MarS-FM outperforms existing methods, often by a substantial margin.
Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL
Sample efficiency is one of the main bottlenecks for optimal decision making via reinforcement learning. Pretraining a policy to maximize the entropy of the state visitation can substantially speedup reinforcement learning of downstream tasks. It is still an open question how to maximize the state entropy in POMDPs, where the true states of the environment, or their entropy, are not observed. In this work, we propose to maximize the entropy of a sufficient statistic of the history, which is called an information state. First, we show that a recursive latent model that predicts future observations is an information state in this setting. Then, we provide a practical algorithm, called LatEnt, to simultaneously learn the latent model and a latent-based policy maximizing the corresponding entropy objective from reward-free interactions with the POMDP. We empirically show that our approach induces higher state entropy than existing methods, which translates to better performance on downstream tasks. As a byproduct, we open-source PROBE, the first benchmark to test reward-free pretraining in POMDPs.
Deep Learning · Theory
Deep neural networks often remain overconfident on Out-of-Distribution (OoD) inputs. We revisit this problem through Riemannian information geometry. We model the network's predictions as a statistical manifold and find that OoD inputs exhibit higher local Fisher-Rao sensitivity. By quantifying this sensitivity with the trace of the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), we derive a unifying geometric connection between two common OoD signals: feature magnitude and output uncertainty. Analyzing the limitations of this multiplicative form, we extend our analysis using a product manifold construction. This provides a theoretical framework for the robust additive scores used in state-of-the-art (SOTA) detectors and motivates our final, competitive method.
Matrix operations, such as linear solves, eigendecompositions, and log determinants, are foundational building blocks for any number of downstream applications. Therefore, any broadly capable learning system should be able to effectively approximate these operations in its internal representation. Accordingly, there is great motivation to study transformers for linear algebra --- for if transformers cannot even semi-competently perform matrix operations, then we cannot expect them to form a basis for a generally intelligent system. We demonstrate that current techniques developing transformers for linear algebra have striking failure modes, prohibitive scaling, and particularly poor out-of-distribution generalization to other matrix distributions, and matrices of different sizes. Investigating further, we find that current transformer approaches operate as statistical interpolators, rather than discovering algorithms that will generalize to matrices from other distributions. Based on our understanding of these limitations, we develop a sequence of interventions that substantially improve scaling and performance, including matrix embeddings through a learnable projection, linear attention, looping, and a data pre-training distribution of structured matrices. We term the resulting method the \emph{RangeFormer}, which we show has significantly improved scaling and performance on challenging OOD matrices from the \emph{matrix market}. Moreover, with RangeFormer we show for the first time that transformers can be successfully applied to downstream tasks that involve iterative matrix operations, including Gaussian process learning, and improving the sampling distribution of randomized methods.
Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for reliable deployment of machine learning systems in vision, robotics, and reinforcement learning. We introduce Score–Curvature Out-of-distribution Proximity Evaluator for Diffusion (SCOPED), a fast and general-purpose OOD detection method for diffusion models that reduces the number of forward passes on the trained model by an order of magnitude compared to prior methods, outperforming most diffusion-based baselines and approaching the accuracy of the strongest ones. SCOPED is computed from a single diffusion model trained once on a diverse dataset and combines the Jacobian trace and squared norm of the model’s score function into a single test statistic. Rather than thresholding on a fixed value, we estimate the in-distribution density of SCOPED scores using kernel density estimation, enabling a flexible, unsupervised test that, in the simplest case, only requires a single forward pass and one Jacobian–vector product (JVP), made efficient by Hutchinson’s trace estimator. On four vision benchmarks, SCOPED achieves competitive or state-of-the-art precision-recall scores despite its low computational cost. The same method generalizes to robotic control tasks with shared state and action spaces, identifying distribution shifts across reward functions and training regimes. These results position SCOPED as a practical foundation for fast and reliable OOD detection in real-world domains, including perceptual artifacts in vision, outlier detection in autoregressive models, exploration in reinforcement learning, and dataset curation for unsupervised training.
Computer Vision · Image and Video Generation
We examine the problem of selecting a small set of linear measurements for reconstructing high-dimensional signals. Well-established methods for optimizing such measurements include principal component analysis (PCA), independent component analysis (ICA) and compressed sensing (CS) based on random projections, all of which rely on axis- or subspace-aligned statistical characterization of the signal source. However, many naturally occurring signals, including photographic images, contain richer statistical structure. To exploit such structure, we introduce a general method for obtaining an optimized set of linear measurements for efficient image reconstruction, where the signal statistics are expressed by the prior implicit in a neural network trained to perform denoising (known as a ``diffusion model''). We demonstrate that the optimal measurements derived for two natural image datasets differ from those of PCA, ICA, or CS, and result in substantially lower mean squared reconstruction error. Interestingly, the marginal distributions of the measurement values are asymmetrical (skewed), substantially more so than those of previous methods. We also find that optimizing with respect to perceptual loss, as quantified by structural similarity (SSIM), leads to measurements different from those obtained when optimizing for MSE. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating the specific statistical regularities of natural signals when designing effective linear measurements.
General Machine Learning · Everything Else
We propose a statistical benchmark for diffusion-posterior-sampling (DPS) algorithms in linear inverse problems. Our test signals are discretized Lévy processes whose posteriors admit efficient Gibbs methods. These Gibbs methods provide gold-standard posterior samples for direct, distribution-level comparisons with DPS algorithms. They can also sample the denoising posteriors in the reverse diffusion, which enables the arbitrary-precision Monte Carlo estimation of various objects that may be needed in the DPS algorithms, such as the expectation or the covariance of the denoising posteriors. In turn, this can be used to isolate algorithmic errors from the errors due to learned components. We instantiate the benchmark with the minimum-mean-squared-error optimality gap and posterior-coverage tests and evaluate popular algorithms on the inverse problems of denoising, deconvolution, imputation, and reconstruction from partial Fourier measurements. We release the benchmark code at https://github.com/zacmar/dps-benchmark and invite the community to contribute and report results.
General Machine Learning · Probabilistic Methods
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are essential tools in computational statistics for sampling from unnormalised probability distributions, but can be fragile when targeting high-dimensional, multimodal, or complex target distributions. Parallel Tempering (PT) enhances MCMC's sample efficiency through annealing and parallel computation, propagating samples from tractable reference distributions to intractable targets via state swapping across interpolating distributions. The effectiveness of PT is limited by the often minimal overlap between adjacent distributions in challenging problems, which requires increasing the computational resources to compensate. We introduce a framework that accelerates PT by leveraging neural samplers---including normalising flows, diffusion models, and controlled diffusions---to reduce the required overlap. Our approach utilises neural samplers in parallel, circumventing the computational burden of neural samplers while preserving the asymptotic consistency of classical PT. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically on a variety of multimodal sampling problems that our method improves sample quality, reduces the computational cost compared to classical PT, and enables efficient free energy/normalising constant estimation.
General Machine Learning · Probabilistic Methods
Probabilistic programming offers a powerful framework for modeling uncertainty, yet statistical model discovery in this domain entails navigating an immense search space under strict domain‐specific constraints. When small language models are tasked with generating probabilistic programs, they frequently produce outputs that suffer from both syntactic, and semantic errors, such as flawed inference constructs. Motivated by probabilistic programmers’ domain expertise and debugging strategies, we introduce RefineStat, a language model–driven framework that enforces semantic constraints ensuring synthesized programs contain valid distributions, well‐formed parameters, and then applies diagnostic‐aware refinement by resampling prior or likelihood components whenever reliability checks fail. We evaluate RefineStat on multiple probabilistic-programming code-generation tasks using smaller language models (SLMs) and find that it produces programs that are both syntactically sound and statistically reliable, often matching or surpassing those from closed-source large language models (e.g., OpenAI o3).
Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning
Fairness in machine learning has emerged as a central concern, as predictive models frequently inherit or even amplify biases present in training data. Such biases often manifest as unintended correlations between model outcomes and sensitive attributes, leading to systematic disparities across demographic groups. Existing approaches to fair learning largely fall into two directions: incorporating fairness constraints tailored to specific definitions, which limits their generalizability, or reducing the statistical dependence between predictions and sensitive attributes, which is more flexible but highly sensitive to the choice of distance measure. The latter strategy in particular raises the challenge of finding a principled and reliable measure of dependence that can perform consistently across tasks. In this work, we present a general and model-agnostic approach to address this challenge. The method is based on encouraging independence between predictions and sensitive features through an optimization framework that leverages the Cauchy–Schwarz (CS) Divergence as a principled measure of dependence. Prior studies suggest that CS Divergence provides a tighter theoretical bound compared to alternative distance measures used in earlier fairness methods, offering a stronger foundation for fairness-oriented optimization. Our framework, therefore, unifies prior efforts under a simple yet effective principle and highlights the value of carefully chosen statistical measures in fair learning. Through extensive empirical evaluation on four tabular datasets and one image dataset, we show that our approach consistently improves multiple fairness metrics while maintaining competitive accuracy.
Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders
Computation methods for solving entropy-regularized reward optimization—a class of problems widely used for fine-tuning generative models—have advanced rapidly. Among those, Adjoint Matching (AM, Domingo-Enrich et al., 2025) has proven highly effective in continuous state spaces with differentiable rewards. Transferring these practical successes to _discrete_ generative modeling, however, remains particularly challenging and largely unexplored, mainly due to the drastic shift in generative model classes to discrete state spaces, which are nowhere differentiable. In this work, we propose Discrete Adjoint Matching (DAM)—a discrete variant of AM for fine-tuning discrete generative models characterized by Continuous-Time Markov Chains, such as diffusion-based large language models. The core of DAM is the introduction of _discrete adjoint_—an estimator of the optimal solution to the original problem but formulated on discrete domains—from which standard matching frameworks can be applied. This is derived via a purely statistical standpoint, in contrast to the control-theoretic viewpoint in AM, thereby opening up new algorithmic opportunities for general adjoint-based estimators. We showcase DAM’s effectiveness on synthetic and mathematical reasoning tasks.
Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning
Differentially-Private SGD (DP-SGD) and its adaptive variant DP-Adam are powerful techniques to protect user privacy when using sensitive data to train neural networks. During training, converting model weights and activations into low-precision formats, i.e., quantization, can drastically reduce training times, energy consumption, and cost, and is thus a widely used technique. In this work, we demonstrate for the first time that quantization causes significantly higher accuracy degradation in DP training compared to regular SGD. We observe that this is caused by noise injection, which amplifies quantization variance, leading to disproportionately large accuracy degradation. To address this challenge, we present DPQuant, a dynamic quantization framework that adaptively selects a changing subset of layers to quantize at each epoch. Our method combines two key ideas that effectively reduce quantization variance: (i) probabilistic sampling that rotates which layers are quantized every epoch, and (ii) loss-aware layer prioritization, which uses a differentially private loss sensitivity estimator to identify layers that can be quantized with minimal impact on model quality. This estimator consumes a negligible fraction of the overall privacy budget, preserving DP guarantees. Empirical evaluations on ResNet18, ResNet50, and DenseNet121 across a range of datasets demonstrate that DPQuant consistently outperforms static quantization baselines, achieving near Pareto-optimal accuracy-compute trade-offs and up to $2.21\times$ theoretical throughput improvements on low‑precision hardware, with less than 2% drop in validation accuracy. We further show that our framework extends to DP-Adam with similar gains.
Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning
We study several problems in differentially private domain discovery, where each user holds a subset of items from a shared but unknown domain, and the goal is to output an informative subset of items. For set union, we show that the simple baseline Weighted Gaussian Mechanism (WGM) has a near-optimal $\ell_1$ missing mass guarantee on Zipfian data as well as a distribution-free $\ell_\infty$ missing mass guarantee. We then apply the WGM as a domain-discovery precursor for existing known-domain algorithms for private top-$k$ and $k$-hitting set and obtain new utility guarantees for their unknown domain variants. Finally, experiments demonstrate that all of our WGM-based methods are competitive with or outperform existing baselines for all three problems.
Computer Vision · Vision Models & Multimodal
Large video language models (LVLMs) have made notable progress in video understanding, spurring the development of corresponding evaluation benchmarks. However, existing benchmarks generally assess overall performance across entire video sequences, overlooking nuanced behaviors such as contextual positional bias, a critical yet under-explored aspect of LVLM performance. We present **Video-LevelGauge**, a dedicated benchmark designed to systematically assess positional bias in LVLMs. We employ standardized probes and customized contextual setups, allowing flexible control over context length, probe position, and contextual types to simulate diverse real-world scenarios. In addition, we introduce a comprehensive analysis method that combines statistical measures with bias pattern recognition to characterize bias. Our benchmark comprises 438 manually curated videos spanning multiple types, yielding 1,177 high-quality multiple-choice questions and 120 open-ended questions, validated for their effectiveness in exposing positional bias. Based on these, we evaluate 27 state-of-the-art LVLMs, including both commercial and open-source models. Our findings reveal significant positional biases in many leading open-source models, typically exhibiting head or neighbor-content preferences. In contrast, commercial models such as Gemini 2.5 Pro show impressive, consistent performance across entire video sequences. Further analyses on context variation, context length, model scale, and multi-modal reasoning provide insights for mitigating bias and guiding model enhancement.
Social Aspects · Accountability, Transparency and Interpretability
When using an LLM through an API provider, users expect the served model to remain consistent over time, a property crucial for the reliability of downstream applications and the reproducibility of research. Existing audit methods are too costly to apply at regular time intervals to the wide range of available LLM APIs. This means that model updates are left largely unmonitored in practice. In this work, we show that while LLM log probabilities (logprobs) are usually non-deterministic, they can still be used as the basis for cost-effective continuous monitoring of LLM APIs. We apply a simple statistical test based on the average value of each token logprob, requesting only a single token of output. This is enough to detect changes as small as one step of fine-tuning, making this approach more sensitive than existing methods while being 1,000x cheaper. We introduce the TinyChange benchmark as a way to measure the sensitivity of audit methods in the context of small, realistic model changes.