论文检索

Reinforcement Learning · Batch Offline

Jing Zhang, Linjiajie Fang, Kexin SHI, Wenjia Wang, Bingyi Jing

``Distribution shift'' is the primary obstacle to the success of offline reinforcement learning. As a learning policy may take actions beyond the knowledge of the behavior policy (referred to as Out-of-Distribution (OOD) actions), the Q-values of these OOD actions can be easily overestimated. Consequently, the learning policy becomes biasedly optimized using the incorrect recovered Q-value function. One commonly used idea to avoid the overestimation of Q-value is to make a pessimistic adjustment. Our key idea is to penalize the Q-values of OOD actions that correspond to high uncertainty. In this work, we propose Q-Distribution guided Q-learning (QDQ) which pessimistic Q-value on OOD regions based on uncertainty estimation. The uncertainty measure is based on the conditional Q-value distribution, which is learned via a high-fidelity and efficient consistency model. On the other hand, to avoid the overly conservative problem, we introduce an uncertainty-aware optimization objective to update the Q-value function. The proposed QDQ demonstrates solid theoretical guarantees for the accuracy of Q-value distribution learning and uncertainty measurement, as well as the performance of the learning policy. QDQ consistently exhibits strong performance in the D4RL benchmark and shows significant improvements for many tasks. Our code can be found at <code link>.

Probabilistic Methods

Jingen Qu, Yufei Chen, Xiaodong Yue, Wei Fu, Qiguang Huang

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), grounded in Evidence Theory and Subjective Logic (SL), provides a robust framework to estimate uncertainty for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection alongside traditional classification probabilities.However, the EDL framework is constrained by its focus on evidence that supports only single categories, neglecting the other collective evidences that could corroborate multiple in-distribution categories. This limitation leads to a diminished estimation of uncertainty and a subsequent decline in OOD detection performance.Additionally, EDL encounters the vanishing gradient problem within its fully-connected layers, further degrading classification accuracy.To address these issues, we introduce hyper-domain and propose Hyper-opinion Evidential Deep Learning (HEDL). HEDL extends the evidence modeling paradigm by explicitly integrating sharp evidence, which supports a singular category, with vague evidence that accommodates multiple potential categories.Additionally, we propose a novel opinion projection mechanism that translates hyper-opinion into multinomial-opinion, which is then optimized within the EDL framework to ensure precise classification and refined uncertainty estimation.HEDL integrates evidences across various categories to yield a holistic evidentiary foundation for achieving superior OOD detection. Furthermore, our proposed opinion projection method effectively mitigates the vanishing gradient issue, ensuring classification accuracy without additional model complexity. Extensive experiments over many datasets demonstrate our proposed method outperforms existing OOD detection methods.

Reinforcement Learning · Function Approximation

Zhishuai Liu, Pan Xu

Distributionally robust offline reinforcement learning (RL), which seeks robust policy training against environment perturbation by modeling dynamics uncertainty, calls for function approximations when facing large state-action spaces. However, the consideration of dynamics uncertainty introduces essential nonlinearity and computational burden, posing unique challenges for analyzing and practically employing function approximation. Focusing on a basic setting where the nominal model and perturbed models are linearly parameterized, we propose minimax optimal and computationally efficient algorithms realizing function approximation and initiate the study on instance-dependent suboptimality analysis in the context of robust offline RL. Our results uncover that function approximation in robust offline RL is essentially distinct from and probably harder than that in standard offline RL. Our algorithms and theoretical results crucially depend on a novel function approximation mechanism incorporating variance information, a new procedure of suboptimality and estimation uncertainty decomposition, a quantification of the robust value function shrinkage, and a meticulously designed family of hard instances, which might be of independent interest.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Jiesong Liu, Feng Zhang, Jiawei Guan, Xipeng Shen

Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO) plays a pivotal role in unleashing the potential of iterative machine learning models. This paper addresses a crucial aspect that has largely been overlooked in HPO: the impact of uncertainty in ML model training. The paper introduces the concept of uncertainty-aware HPO and presents a novel approach called the UQ-guided scheme for quantifying uncertainty. This scheme offers a principled and versatile method to empower HPO techniques in handling model uncertainty during their exploration of the candidate space.By constructing a probabilistic model and implementing probability-driven candidate selection and budget allocation, this approach enhances the quality of the resulting model hyperparameters. It achieves a notable performance improvement of over 50\% in terms of accuracy regret and exploration time.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Ziyad Benomar, Evgenii Chzhen, Nicolas Schreuder, Vianney Perchet

Consider a hiring process with candidates coming from different universities. It is easy to order candidates with the same background, yet it can be challenging to compare them otherwise. The latter case requires additional costly assessments, leading to a potentially high total cost for the hiring organization. Given an assigned budget, what would be an optimal strategy to select the most qualified candidate?We model the above problem as a multicolor secretary problem, allowing comparisons between candidates from distinct groups at a fixed cost. Our study explores how the allocated budget enhances the success probability of online selection algorithms.

Trustworthy Machine Learning

Qingyang Zhang, Qiuxuan Feng, Joey Tianyi Zhou, Yatao Bian, Qinghua Hu, Changqing Zhang

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for model trustworthiness which aims to sensitively identity semantic OOD samples and robustly generalize for covariate-shifted OOD samples. However, we discover that the superior OOD detection performance of state-of-the-art methods is achieved by secretly sacrificing the OOD generalization ability. The classification accuracy frequently collapses catastrophically when even slight noise is encountered. Such a phenomenon violates the motivation of trustworthiness and significantly limits the model's deployment in the real world. What is the hidden reason behind such a limitation? In this work, we theoretically demystify the "\textit{sensitive-robust}" dilemma that lies in previous OOD detection methods. Consequently, a theory-inspired algorithm is induced to overcome such a dilemma. By decoupling the uncertainty learning objective from a Bayesian perspective, the conflict between OOD detection and OOD generalization is naturally harmonized and a dual-optimized performance could be expected. Empirical studies show that our method achieves superior performance on commonly used benchmarks. To our best knowledge, this work is the first principled OOD detection method that achieves state-of-the-art OOD detection performance without sacrificing OOD generalization ability. Our code is available at https://github.com/QingyangZhang/DUL.

Statistical Methods

Xinyi Li, Shan Yu, Yueying Wang, Guannan Wang, Li Wang, Ming-Jun Lai

In recent years, there has been an exponentially increased amount of point clouds collected with irregular shapes in various areas. Motivated by the importance of solid modeling for point clouds, we develop a novel and efficient smoothing tool based on multivariate splines over the triangulation to extract the underlying signal and build up a 3D solid model from the point cloud. The proposed method can denoise or deblur the point cloud effectively, provide a multi-resolution reconstruction of the actual signal, and handle sparse and irregularly distributed point clouds to recover the underlying trajectory. In addition, our method provides a natural way of numerosity data reduction. We establish the theoretical guarantees of the proposed method, including the convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the estimator, and show that the convergence rate achieves optimal nonparametric convergence. We also introduce a bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of the estimators. Through extensive simulation studies and a real data example, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over traditional smoothing methods in terms of estimation accuracy and efficiency of data reduction.

Theory · Game Theory

Guru Guruganesh, Yoav Kolumbus, Jon Schneider, Inbal Talgam-Cohen, Emmanouil-Vasileios Vlatakis-Gkaragkounis, Joshua Wang, S. Weinberg

Real-life contractual relations typically involve repeated interactions between the principal and agent, where, despite theoretical appeal, players rarely use complex dynamic strategies and instead manage uncertainty through learning algorithms.In this paper, we initiate the study of repeated contracts with learning agents, focusing on those achieving no-regret outcomes. For the canonical setting where the agent’s actions result in success or failure, we present a simple, optimal solution for the principal: Initially provide a linear contract with scalar $\alpha > 0$, then switch to a zero-scalar contract. This shift causes the agent to “free-fall” through their action space, yielding non-zero rewards for the principal at zero cost. Interestingly, despite the apparent exploitation, there are instances where our dynamic contract can make \emph{both} players better off compared to the best static contract. We then broaden the scope of our results to general linearly-scaled contracts, and, finally, to the best of our knowledge, we provide the first analysis of optimization against learning agents with uncertainty about the time horizon.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Felix Benning, Leif Döring

Classical worst-case optimization theory neither explains the success of optimization in machine learning, nor does it help with step size selection. In this paper we demonstrate the viability and advantages of replacing the classical 'convex function' framework with a 'random function' framework. With complexity $\mathcal{O}(n^3d^3)$, where $n$ is the number of steps and $d$ the number of dimensions, Bayesian optimization with gradients has not been viable in large dimension so far. By bridging the gap between Bayesian optimization (i.e. random function optimization theory) and classical optimization we establish viability. Specifically, we use a 'stochastic Taylor approximation' to rediscover gradient descent, which is scalable in high dimension due to $\mathcal{O}(nd)$ complexity. This rediscovery yields a specific step size schedule we call Random Function Descent (RFD). The advantage of this random function framework is that RFD is scale invariant and that it provides a theoretical foundation for common step size heuristics such as gradient clipping and gradual learning rate warmup.

Farima Fatahi Bayat, Xin Liu, H. Jagadish, Lu Wang

Large language models (LLMs) can generate long-form and coherent text, yet they often hallucinate facts, which undermines their reliability. To mitigate this issue, inference-time methods steer LLM representations toward the “truthful directions” previously learned for truth elicitation. However, applying these truthful directions with the same intensity fails to generalize across different query contexts. We propose LITO, a Learnable Intervention method for Truthfulness Optimization that automatically identifies the optimal intervention intensity tailored to each specific context. LITO explores a sequence of model generations based on increasing levels of intervention intensities. It selects the most accurate response or refuses to answer when the predictions are highly uncertain. Experiments on multiple LLMs and question-answering datasets demonstrate that LITO improves truthfulness while preserving task accuracy. The adaptive nature of LITO counters the limitations of one-size-fits-all intervention methods, maximizing truthfulness by reflecting the model’s internal knowledge only when it is confident. Our code is available at https://github.com/launchnlp/LITO.

Yifei Zhang, Bo Pan, Chen Ling, Yuntong Hu, Liang Zhao

The deployment and application of Large Language Models (LLMs) is hindered by their memory inefficiency, computational demands, and the high costs of API inferences. Traditional distillation methods, which transfer the capabilities of LLMs to smaller models, often fail to determine whether the knowledge has been sufficiently transferred, potentially resulting in high costs or incomplete distillation. In this paper, we propose an Explanation-Guided LLMs Active Distillation (ELAD) framework that employs an active learning strategy to optimize the balance between annotation costs and model performance. To improve the efficiency of sample selection, we introduce an explanation-guided sample selection method that identifies samples challenging its reasoning by exploiting uncertainties in reasoning explanation steps. Additionally, we present a customized LLM-annotated explanation revision technique where the teacher model detects and corrects flaws in the student model’s reasoning. Our experiments across various reasoning datasets demonstrate that our framework significantly enhances the efficiency of LLMs knowledge distillation.

Chuanpeng Yang, Yaxin Liu, Fuqing Zhu, Jizhong Han, Songlin Hu

Hateful memes detection is a challenging multimodal understanding task that requires comprehensive learning of vision, language, and cross-modal interactions. Previous research has focused on developing effective fusion strategies for integrating hate information from different modalities. However, these methods excessively rely on cross-modal fusion features, ignoring the modality uncertainty caused by the contribution degree of each modality to hate sentiment and the modality imbalance caused by the dominant modality suppressing the optimization of another modality. To this end, this paper proposes an Uncertainty-guided Modal Rebalance (UMR) framework for hateful memes detection. The uncertainty of each meme is explicitly formulated by designing stochastic representation drawn from a Gaussian distribution for aggregating cross-modal features with unimodal features adaptively. The modality imbalance is alleviated by improving cosine loss from the perspectives of inter-modal feature and weight vectors constraints. In this way, the suppressed unimodal representation ability in multimodal models would be unleashed, while the learning of modality contribution would be further promoted. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed UMR produces the state-of-the-art performance on four widely-used datasets.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Germain Vivier-Ardisson, Alexandre Forel, Axel Parmentier, Thibaut Vidal

Optimization layers in deep neural networks have enjoyed a growing popularity in structured learning, improving the state of the art on a variety of applications. Yet, these pipelines lack interpretability since they are made of two opaque layers: a highly non-linear prediction model, such as a deep neural network, and an optimization layer, which is typically a complex black-box solver. Our goal is to improve the transparency of such methods by providing counterfactual explanations. We build upon variational autoencoders a principled way of obtaining counterfactuals: working in the latent space leads to a natural notion of plausibility of explanations. We finally introduce a variant of the classic loss for VAE training that improves their performance in our specific structured context. These provide the foundations of CF-OPT, a first-order optimization algorithm that can find counterfactual explanations for a broad class of structured learning architectures. Our numerical results show that both close and plausible explanations can be obtained for problems from the recent literature.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Unsupervised and Semi-supervised Learning

Yuxuan Yin, Yu Wang, Peng Li

We introduce a novel semi-supervised learning approach, named Teacher-Student Bayesian Optimization ($\texttt{TSBO}$), integrating the teacher-student paradigm into BO to minimize expensive labeled data queries for the first time. $\texttt{TSBO}$ incorporates a teacher model, an unlabeled data sampler, and a student model. The student is trained on unlabeled data locations generated by the sampler, with pseudo labels predicted by the teacher. The interplay between these three components implements a unique *selective regularization* to the teacher in the form of student feedback. This scheme enables the teacher to predict high-quality pseudo labels, enhancing the generalization of the GP surrogate model in the search space. To fully exploit $\texttt{TSBO}$, we propose two optimized unlabeled data samplers to construct effective student feedback that well aligns with the objective of Bayesian optimization. Furthermore, we quantify and leverage the uncertainty of the teacher-student model for the provision of reliable feedback to the teacher in the presence of risky pseudo-label predictions. $\texttt{TSBO}$ demonstrates significantly improved sample-efficiency in several global optimization tasks under tight labeled data budgets. The implementation is available at https://github.com/reminiscenty/TSBO-Official.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Dingzhi Yu, Yunuo Cai, Wei Jiang, Lijun Zhang

In this paper, we investigate the empirical counterpart of Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), which aims to minimize the maximal empirical risk across $m$ distinct groups. We formulate empirical GDRO as a *two-level* finite-sum convex-concave minimax optimization problem and develop an algorithm called ALEG to benefit from its special structure. ALEG is a double-looped stochastic primal-dual algorithm that incorporates variance reduction techniques into a modified mirror prox routine. To exploit the two-level finite-sum structure, we propose a simple group sampling strategy to construct the stochastic gradient with a smaller Lipschitz constant and then perform variance reduction for all groups. Theoretical analysis shows that ALEG achieves $\varepsilon$-accuracy within a computation complexity of $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{m\sqrt{\bar{n}\ln{m}}}{\varepsilon}\right)$, where $\bar n$ is the average number of samples among $m$ groups. Notably, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art method by a factor of $\sqrt{m}$. Based on ALEG, we further develop a two-stage optimization algorithm called ALEM to deal with the empirical Minimax Excess Risk Optimization (MERO) problem. The computation complexity of ALEM nearly matches that of ALEG, surpassing the rates of existing methods.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Yuesong Shen, Nico Daheim, Bai Cong, Peter Nickl, Gian Maria Marconi, Bazan Raoul, Rio Yokota, Iryna Gurevych, Daniel Cremers, Khan Emtiyaz 等

We give extensive empirical evidence against the common belief that variational learning is ineffective for large neural networks. We show that an optimizer called Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) consistently matches or outperforms Adam for training large networks such as GPT-2 and ResNets from scratch. IVON's computational costs are nearly identical to Adam but its predictive uncertainty is better. We show several new use cases of IVON where we improve finetuning and model merging in Large Language Models, accurately predict generalization error, and faithfully estimate sensitivity to data. We find overwhelming evidence that variational learning is effective. Code is available at https://github.com/team-approx-bayes/ivon.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Hao Wang, Kaifeng Yang, Michael Affenzeller

Hypervolume improvement (HVI) is commonly employed in multi-objective Bayesian optimization algorithms to define acquisition functions due to its Pareto-compliant property. Rather than focusing on specific statistical moments of HVI, this work aims to provide the exact expression of HVI's probability distribution for bi-objective problems. Considering a bi-variate Gaussian random variable resulting from Gaussian process (GP) modeling, we derive the probability distribution of its hypervolume improvement via a cell partition-based method. Our exact expression is superior in numerical accuracy and computation efficiency compared to the Monte Carlo approximation of HVI's distribution. Utilizing this distribution, we propose a novel acquisition function - $\varepsilon$-probability of hypervolume improvement ($\varepsilon$-PoHVI). Experimentally, we show that on many widely-applied bi-objective test problems, $\varepsilon$-PoHVI significantly outperforms other related acquisition functions, e.g., $\varepsilon$-PoI, and expected hypervolume improvement, when the GP model exhibits a large the prediction uncertainty.

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Alan Matias, César Lincoln Mattos, Joao Paulo Gomes, Diego Mesquita

Deep kernel learning (DKL) marries the uncertainty quantification of Gaussian processes (GPs) and the representational power of deep neural networks. However, training DKL is challenging and often leads to overfitting. Most notably, DKL often learns “non-local” kernels — incurring spurious correlations. To remedy this issue, we propose using amortized inducing points and a parameter-sharing scheme, which ties together the amortization and DKL networks. This design imposes an explicit dependency between the ELBO’s model fit and capacity terms. In turn, this prevents the former from dominating the optimization procedure and incurring the aforementioned spurious correlations. Extensive experiments show that our resulting method, *amortized varitional* DKL (AVDKL), i) consistently outperforms DKL and standard GPs for tabular data; ii) achieves significantly higher accuracy than DKL in node classification tasks; and iii) leads to substantially better accuracy and negative log-likelihood than DKL on CIFAR100.

Thomas Pouplin, Alan Jeffares, Nabeel Seedat, M van der Schaar

Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground truth target will fall with some prespecified probability. This is an essential requirement in many real-world applications where simple point predictions' inability to convey the magnitude and frequency of errors renders them insufficient for high-stakes decisions. Quantile regression is a leading approach for obtaining such intervals via the empirical estimation of quantiles in the (non-parametric) distribution of outputs. This method is simple, computationally inexpensive, interpretable, assumption-free, and effective. However, it does require that the specific quantiles being learned are chosen a priori. This results in (a) intervals that are arbitrarily symmetric around the median which is sub-optimal for realistic skewed distributions, or (b) learning an excessive number of intervals. In this work, we propose Relaxed Quantile Regression (RQR), a direct alternative to quantile regression based interval construction that removes this arbitrary constraint whilst maintaining its strengths. We demonstrate that this added flexibility results in intervals with an improvement in desirable qualities (e.g. mean width) whilst retaining the essential coverage guarantees of quantile regression.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Xutao Ma, Chao Ning, WenLi Du

In recent years, there has been a growing research interest in decision-focused learning, which embeds optimization problems as a layer in learning pipelines and demonstrates a superior performance than the prediction-focused approach. However, for distributionally robust optimization (DRO), a popular paradigm for decision-making under uncertainty, it is still unknown how to embed it as a layer, i.e., how to differentiate decisions with respect to an ambiguity set. In this paper, we develop such differentiable DRO layers for generic mixed-integer DRO problems with parameterized second-order conic ambiguity sets and discuss its extension to Wasserstein ambiguity sets. To differentiate the mixed-integer decisions, we propose a novel dual-view methodology by handling continuous and discrete parts of decisions via different principles. Specifically, we construct a differentiable energy-based surrogate to implement the dual-view methodology and use importance sampling to estimate its gradient. We further prove that such a surrogate enjoys the asymptotic convergency under regularization. As an application of the proposed differentiable DRO layers, we develop a novel decision-focused learning pipeline for contextual distributionally robust decision-making tasks and compare it with the prediction-focused approach in experiments