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2,245篇论文匹配“Statistical Methods”
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Optimization · Sampling and Optimization

Wei Guo, Jaemoo Choi, Yuchen Zhu, Molei Tao, Yongxin Chen

The task of learning a diffusion-based neural sampler for drawing samples from an unnormalized target distribution can be viewed as a stochastic optimal control problem on path measures. However, the training of neural samplers can be challenging when the target distribution is multimodal with significant barriers separating the modes, potentially leading to mode collapse. We propose a framework named **Proximal Diffusion Neural Sampler (PDNS)** that addresses these challenges by tackling the stochastic optimal control problem via proximal point method on the space of path measures. PDNS decomposes the learning process into a series of simpler subproblems that create a path gradually approaching the desired distribution. This staged procedure traces a progressively refined path to the desired distribution and promotes thorough exploration across modes. For a practical and efficient realization, we instantiate each proximal step with a proximal weighted denoising cross-entropy (WDCE) objective. We demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of PDNS through extensive experiments on both continuous and discrete sampling tasks, including challenging scenarios in molecular dynamics and statistical physics. Our code is available at https://github.com/AlexandreGUO2001/PDNS.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Jiayu Zhang, Chuangxin Zhao, Canran Xiao, Ruibo Duan, Wenyi Mo, Haoyu Gao, Wenshuo Wang

When deployed on non-stationary data streams, foundation vision-language models require continual updates without access to past data. However, naive fine-tuning undermines their zero-shot recognition capabilities and prompt robustness. We seek a replay-free principle that preserves pre-trained cross-modal generalization under domain/prompt shifts. We introduce Prompt-Invariant CCA Certificates (Pi-CCA), a geometry-first approach that summarizes image--text alignment with a compact certificate capturing the top-k canonical spectrum and subspace. During adaptation, we match this summary using only mini-batch statistics and induce prompt robustness via averaging over perturbations. Across MTIL, X-TAIL, VLCL, and ConStruct-VL, Pi-CCA achieves state-of-the-art performance among replay-free methods. By optimizing alignment invariants rather than proxy signals, Pi-CCA provides a simple, generator-free, constant-memory path to continual adaptation with strong zero-shot retention and resilience to prompt/style shifts.

Optimization · Non-Convex

Ganzhao Yuan

Nonsmooth composite optimization with orthogonality constraints has a wide range of applications in statistical learning and data science. However, this problem is challenging due to its nonsmooth objective and computationally expensive, non-convex constraints. In this paper, we propose a new approach called \textbf{OBCD}, which leverages Block Coordinate Descent to address these challenges. \textbf{OBCD} is a feasible method with a small computational footprint. In each iteration, it updates $k$ rows of the solution matrix, where $k \geq 2$, by globally solving a small nonsmooth optimization problem under orthogonality constraints. We prove that the limiting points of \textbf{OBCD}, referred to as (global) block-$k$ stationary points, offer stronger optimality than standard critical points. Furthermore, we show that \textbf{OBCD} converges to $\epsilon$-block-$k$ stationary points with an iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon)$. Additionally, under the Kurdyka-Lojasiewicz (KL) inequality, we establish the non-ergodic convergence rate of \textbf{OBCD}. We also demonstrate how novel breakpoint search methods can be used to solve the subproblem in \textbf{OBCD}. Empirical results show that our approach consistently outperforms existing methods.

General Machine Learning · Representation Learning

Yufei Zhu, Shih-Min Yang, Andrey Rudenko, Tomasz Kucner, Achim Lilienthal, Martin Magnusson

Safe and efficient robot operation in complex human environments can benefit from good models of site-specific motion patterns. Maps of Dynamics (MoDs) provide such models by encoding statistical motion patterns in a map, but existing representations use discrete spatial sampling and typically require costly offline construction. We propose a continuous spatio-temporal MoD representation based on implicit neural functions that directly map coordinates to the parameters of a Semi-Wrapped Gaussian Mixture Model. This removes the need for discretization and imputation for unevenly sampled regions, enabling smooth generalization across both space and time. Evaluated on two public datasets with real-world people tracking data, our method achieves better accuracy of motion representation and smoother velocity distributions in sparse regions while still being computationally efficient, compared to available baselines. The proposed approach demonstrates a powerful and efficient way of modeling complex human motion patterns and high performance in the trajectory prediction downstream task. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/test-bai-cpu/nemo-map.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Bill Zheng, Vivek Myers, Benjamin Eysenbach, Sergey Levine

The problem of learning how to reach goals in an environment has been a long- standing challenge in for AI researchers. Effective goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) methods promise to enable reaching distant goals without task- specific rewards by stitching together past experiences of different complexity. Mathematically, there is a duality between the notion of optimal goal-reaching value functions (the likelihood of success at reaching a goal) and temporal dis- tances (transit times states). Recent works have exploited this property by learning quasimetric distance representations that stitch long-horizon behaviors using the in- ductive bias of their architecture. These methods have shown promise in simulated benchmarks, reducing value learning to a shortest-path problem. But quasimet- ric, and more generally, goal-conditioned RL methods still struggle in complex environments with stochasticity and high-dimensional (visual) observations. There is a fundamental tension between the local dynamic programming (TD backups, temporal distances) that enables optimal shortest-path reasoning in theory and the statistical global MC updates (multistep returns, suboptimal in theory). We show how these approaches can be integrated into a practical GCRL method that fits a quasimetric distance using a multistep Monte-Carlo return. We show our method outperforms existing GCRL methods on long-horizon simulated tasks with up to 4000 steps, even with visual observations. We also demonstrate that our method can enable stitching in the real-world robotic manipulation domain (Bridge setup). Our approach is the first end-to-end GCRL method that enables multistep stitching in this real-world manipulation domain from an unlabeled offline dataset of visual observations.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Jinkyu Sung, Myunggeum Jee, Joonseok Lee

Link sign prediction on a signed graph is a task to determine whether the relationship represented by an edge is positive or negative. Since the presence of negative edges violates the graph homophily assumption that adjacent nodes are similar, regular graph methods have not been applicable without auxiliary structures to handle them. We aim to directly model the latent statistical dependency among edges with the Gaussian copula and its corresponding correlation matrix, extending CopulaGNN (Ma et al., 2021). However, a naive modeling of edge-edge relations is computationally intractable even for a graph with moderate scale. To address this, we propose to 1) represent the correlation matrix as a Gramian of edge embeddings, significantly reducing the number of parameters, and 2) reformulate the conditional probability distribution to dramatically reduce the inference cost. We theoretically verify scalability of our method by proving its linear convergence. Also, our extensive experiments demonstrate that it achieves significantly faster convergence than baselines, maintaining competitive prediction performance to the state-of-the-art models.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Aurélien Bellet, Edwige Cyffers, Davide Frey, Romaric Gaudel, Dimitri Lerévérend, Francois Taiani

Decentralized Learning (DL) enables users to collaboratively train models without sharing raw data by iteratively averaging local updates with neighbors in a network graph. This setting is increasingly popular for its scalability and its ability to keep data local under user control. Strong privacy guarantees in DL are typically achieved through Differential Privacy (DP), with results showing that DL can even amplify privacy by disseminating noise across peer-to-peer communications. Yet in practice, the observed privacy-utility trade-off often appears worse than in centralized training, which may be due to limitations in current DP accounting methods for DL. In this paper, we show that recent advances in centralized DP accounting based on Matrix Factorization (MF) for analyzing temporal noise correlations can also be leveraged in DL. By generalizing existing MF results, we show how to cast both standard DL algorithms and common trust models into a unified formulation. This yields tighter privacy accounting for existing DP-DL algorithms and provides a principled way to develop new ones. To demonstrate the approach, we introduce MAFALDA-SGD, a gossip-based DL algorithm with user-level correlated noise that outperforms existing methods on synthetic and real-world graphs.

Social Aspects · Accountability, Transparency and Interpretability

Thibaud Gloaguen, Robin Staab, Nikola Jovanović, Martin Vechev

Most LLM fingerprinting methods teach the model to respond to a few fixed queries with predefined atypical responses (keys). This memorization often does not survive common deployment steps such as finetuning or quantization, and such keys can be easily detected and filtered from LLM responses, ultimately breaking the fingerprint. To overcome these limitations we introduce *LLM fingerprinting via semantically conditioned watermarks*, replacing fixed query sets with a broad semantic domain, and replacing brittle atypical keys with a statistical watermarking signal diffused throughout each response. After teaching the model to watermark its responses only to prompts from a predetermined domain e.g., French language, the model owner can use queries from that domain to reliably detect the fingerprint and verify ownership. As we confirm in our thorough experimental evaluation, our fingerprint is both stealthy and robust to all common deployment scenarios.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Ben Jacobsen, Kassem Fawaz

We study the classic problem of prediction with expert advice under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). In this context, we first show that a classical algorithm naturally satisfies LDP and then design two new algorithms that improve it: RW-AdaBatch and RW-Meta. For RW-AdaBatch, we exploit the limited-switching behavior induced by LDP to provide a novel form of privacy amplification that grows stronger on easier data, analogous to the shuffle model in offline learning. Drawing on the theory of random walks, we prove that this improvement carries essentially no utility cost. For RW-Meta, we develop a general method for privately selecting between experts that are themselves non-trivial learning algorithms, and we show that in the context of LDP this carries no extra privacy cost. In contrast, prior work has only considered data-independent experts. We also derive formal regret bounds that scale inversely with the degree of independence between experts. Our analysis is supplemented by evaluation on real-world data reported by hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic; RW-Meta outperforms both the classical baseline and a state-of-the-art \textit{central} DP algorithm by 1.5-3$\times$ on the task of predicting which hospital will report the highest density of COVID patients each week.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Sangyeon Yoon, Hyesoo Hong, Wonje Jeung, Albert No

Machine unlearning aims to remove specific content from trained models while preserving overall performance. However, the phenomenon of benign relearning, in which forgotten information reemerges even from benign fine-tuning data, reveals that existing unlearning methods remain fundamentally fragile. A common explanation attributes this effect to topical relevance, but we find this account insufficient. Through systematic analysis, we demonstrate that syntactic similarity, rather than topicality, is the primary driver: across benchmarks, syntactically similar data consistently trigger recovery even without topical overlap, due to their alignment in representations and gradients with the forgotten content. Motivated by this insight, we introduce syntactic diversification, which paraphrases the original forget queries into heterogeneous structures prior to unlearning. This approach effectively suppresses benign relearning, accelerates forgetting, and substantially alleviates the trade-off between unlearning efficacy and model utility.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Mohammad Yaghini, Tudor Cebere, Michael Menart, Aurélien Bellet, Nicolas Papernot

Many problems in trustworthy ML can be expressed as constraints on prediction rates across subpopulations, including group fairness constraints (demographic parity, equalized odds, etc.). In this work, we study such constrained minimization problems under differential privacy (DP). Standard DP optimization techniques like DP-SGD rely on objectives that decompose over individual examples, enabling per-example gradient clipping and noise addition. Rate constraints, however, depend on aggregate statistics across groups, creating inter-sample dependencies that violate this decomposability. To address this, we develop RaCO-DP, a DP variant of Stochastic Gradient Descent-Ascent (SGDA) that solves the Lagrangian formulation of rate constraint problems. We show that the additional privacy cost of incorporating these constraints reduces to privately estimating a histogram over the mini-batch at each step. We prove convergence of our algorithm through a novel analysis of SGDA that leverages the linear structure of the dual parameter. Empirical results show that our method Pareto-dominates existing private learning approaches under group fairness constraints and also achieves strong privacy–utility–fairness performance on neural networks.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Andreas Athanasiou, Kangsoo Jung, Catuscia Palamidessi

Federated Learning (FL) was initially proposed as a privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm. However, FL has been shown to be susceptible to a series of privacy attacks. Recently, there has been concern about the Source Inference Attack (SIA), where an honest-but-curious central server attempts to identify exactly which client owns a given data point which was used in the training phase. Alarmingly, standard gradient obfuscation techniques with Differential Privacy have been shown to be ineffective against SIAs, at least without severely diminishing the accuracy. In this work, we propose a defense against SIAs within the widely studied shuffle model of FL, where an honest shuffler acts as an intermediary between the clients and the server. First, we demonstrate that standard naive shuffling alone is insufficient to prevent SIAs. To effectively defend against SIAs, shuffling needs to be applied at a more granular level; we propose a novel combination of parameter-level shuffling with the residue number system (RNS). Our approach provides robust protection against SIAs without affecting the accuracy of the joint model and can be seamlessly integrated into other privacy protection mechanisms. We conduct experiments on a series of models and datasets, confirming that standard shuffling approaches fail to prevent SIAs and that, in contrast, our proposed method reduces the attack’s accuracy to the level of random guessing.

Zairah Mustahsan

As large language models (LLMs) and agentic systems advance, the field increasingly depends on fine-grained evaluation to compare models, guide research directions, and make deployment decisions. Yet evaluation pipelines often treat LLMs as deterministic functions, even though they are fundamentally stochastic systems with variability arising from sampling methods, hardware nondeterminism, environmental randomness, and evaluation procedures. This mismatch leads to unstable benchmarks, unreliable model comparisons, inconsistent agent outcomes, and significant uncertainty when using LLMs as judges. Recent research has begun to quantify this instability and propose statistical techniques, from frequentist error bars to Bayesian latent-state models, reliability metrics, and large-scale variance audits. But adoption is uneven, and the field lacks a cohesive statistical framework for evaluating stochastic intelligence. This post synthesizes existing research into a unified perspective and outlines practical recommendations for improving evaluation practice. The goal is not to introduce new methods, but to demonstrate that the tools already exist and that incorporating statistical thinking is both feasible and urgently needed.

Peng Chen, Jin Zhu, Junxian Zhu, Xueqin Wang

We consider the probabilistic simplex-constrained sparse recovery problem. The commonly used Lasso-type penalty for promoting sparsity is ineffective in this context since it is a constant within the simplex. Despite this challenge, fortunately, simplex constraint itself brings a self-regularization property, i.e., the empirical risk minimizer without any sparsity-promoting procedure obtains the usual Lasso-type estimation error. Moreover, we analyze the iterates of a projected gradient descent method and show its convergence to the ground truth sparse solution in the geometric rate until a satisfied statistical precision is attained. Although the estimation error is statistically optimal, the resulting solution is usually more dense than the sparse ground truth. To further sparsify the iterates, we propose a method called PERMITS via embedding a tail screening procedure, i.e., identifying negligible components and discarding them during iterations, into the projected gradient descent method. Furthermore, we combine tail screening and the special information criterion to balance the trade-off between fitness and complexity. Theoretically, the proposed PERMITS method can exactly recover the ground truth support set under mild conditions and thus obtain the oracle property. We demonstrate the statistical and computational efficiency of PERMITS with both synthetic and real data. The implementation of the proposed method can be found in https://github.com/abess-team/PERMITS.

Applications · Physics

Haining Pan, James Roggeveen, Erez Berg, Juan Alvarez, Debanjan Chowdhury, Surya Ganguli, Federico Ghimenti, Juraj Hasik, Henry Hunt, Hong-Chen Jiang 等

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in coding and mathematical problem-solving; however, evaluation on advanced research-level problems in the hard sciences remains scarce. To fill this gap, we present \cmt, a dataset of 50 original problems covering condensed matter theory (CMT) at the level of an expert researcher. The solution for these problems involve analytical and computational approaches commonly used in quantum many-body physics and classical statistical mechanics. The dataset has been designed and verified by a worldwide panel of expert researchers through a collaborative environment. Topics in the dataset include Hartree-Fock mean-field theory, exact diagonalization methods, quantum Monte Carlo sampling, density matrix renormalization group, quantum statistical mechanics, classical statistical mechanics, and model building. We evaluate different LLMs by programmatically checking LLM-generated solutions against expert-supplied ground truth. To verify LLMs performance at scale, we developed an automated machine-grading pipeline suitable for advanced physics research problems. For example, we handle non-commuting operators that are essential for quantum many-body problems by symbolic manipulation and normal ordering. Our evaluations show that frontier models struggle with all of the problems in the dataset, highlighting a gap in the physical reasoning skills of current LLMs. Notably, experts identified strategies for creating increasingly difficult problems by interacting with the LLMs and exploiting common failure modes. While the highest-performing model, GPT5, correctly solves 30\% of the problems, average performance across 17 models (GPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, and Llama classes) is only 11.4$\pm$2.1\%. Moreover, our benchmark contains 18 problems that not a single one of the 17 models considered here can correctly solve, and 26 problems that are solved by at most one model. These currently unsolvable problems span the fields of Quantum Monte Carlo, Variational Monte Carlo, and Density Matrix Renormalization Group. Furthermore, we illustrate how incorrect answers sometimes violate fundamental symmetries or have unphysical scaling dimensions. We believe that this benchmark set provides valuable guidance for the future development of language models, aiming to achieve the goal of AI research assistants and tutors.

Hossein Baktash, Nicholas Sharp, Qingnan Zhou, Alec Jacobson, Keenan Crane

This paper explores the analysis and design of the resting configurations of a rigid body, without the use of physical simulation. In particular, given a rigid body in R3, we identify all possible stationary points, as well as the probability that the body will stop at these points, assuming a random initial orientation and negligible momentum. The forward version of our method can hence be used to automatically orient models, to provide feedback about object stability during the design process, and to furnish plausible distributions of shape orientation for natural scene modeling. Moreover, a differentiable inverse version of our method lets us design shapes with target resting behavior, such as dice with target, nonuniform probabilities. Here we find solutions that would be nearly impossible to find using classical techniques, such as dice with additional unstable faces that provide more natural overall geometry. From a technical point of view, our key observation is that rolling equilibria can be extracted from the Morse-Smale complex of the support function over the Gauss map. Our method is hence purely geometric, and does not make use of random sampling, or numerical time integration. Yet surprisingly, this purely geometric model makes extremely accurate predictions of rest behavior, which we validate both numerically, and via physical experiments. Moreover, for computing rest statistics, it is orders of magnitude faster than state of the art rigid body simulation, opening the door to inverse design—rather than just forward analysis.

Wonjong Jang, Yucheol Jung, Gyeongmin Lee, Seungyong Lee 0001

Self-intersection repair in static 3D surface meshes presents unique challenges due to the absence of temporal motion and penetration depth information—two critical elements typically leveraged in physics-based approaches. We introduce a novel framework that transforms local contact handling into a global repair strategy through a combination of local signed tangent-point energies and their gradient diffusion. At the heart of our method is a key insight: rather than computing expensive global repulsive potentials, we can effectively approximate long-range interactions by diffusing energy gradients from local contacts throughout the mesh surface. In turn, resolving complex self-intersections reduces to simply propagating local repulsive energies through standard diffusion mechanics and iteratively solving tractable local optimizations. We further accelerate convergence through our momentum-based optimizer, which adaptively regulates momentum based on gradient statistics to prevent overshooting while maintaining rapid intersection repair. The resulting algorithm handles a variety of challenging scenarios, from shallow contacts to deep penetrations, while providing computational efficiency suitable for interactive applications.

Mingfeng Tang, Ningna Wang, Ziyuan Xie, Jianwei Hu 0003, Ke Xie 0001, Xiaohu Guo, Hui Huang 0004

We present the first scene-update aerial path planning algorithm specifically designed for detecting and updating change areas in urban environments. While existing methods for large-scale 3D urban scene reconstruction focus on achieving high accuracy and completeness, they are inefficient for scenarios requiring periodic updates, as they often re-explore and reconstruct entire scenes, wasting significant time and resources on unchanged areas. To address this limitation, our method leverages prior reconstructions and change probability statistics to guide UAVs in detecting and focusing on areas likely to have changed. Our approach introduces a novel changeability heuristic to evaluate the likelihood of scene changes, driving the planning of two flight paths: a prior path informed by static priors and a dynamic real-time path that adapts to newly detected changes. Extensive experiments on real-world urban datasets demonstrate that our method significantly reduces flight time and computational overhead while maintaining high-quality updates comparable to full-scene re-exploration and reconstruction. These contributions pave the way for efficient, scalable, and adaptive UAV-based scene updates in complex urban environments.

Richard D. Paul, Johannes Seiffarth, David Rügamer, Katharina Nöh, Hanno Scharr

Cell tracking is a key computational task in live-cell microscopy, but fully automated analysis of high-throughput imaging requires reliable and, thus, uncertainty-aware data analysis tools, as the amount of data recorded within a single experiment exceeds what humans are able to overlook. We here propose and benchmark various methods to reason about and quantify uncertainty in linear assignment-based cell tracking algorithms. Our methods take inspiration from statistics and machine learning, leveraging two perspectives on the cell tracking problem explored throughout this work: Considering it as a Bayesian inference problem and as a classification problem. Our methods admit a framework-like character in that they equip any frame-to-frame tracking method with uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate this by applying it to various existing tracking algorithms including the recently presented Transformer-based trackers. We demonstrate empirically that our methods yield useful and well-calibrated tracking uncertainties.

Liwei Luo, Shuaitengyuan Li, Dongwei Ren, Qilong Wang, Pengfei Zhu, Qinghua Hu

Recently, remarkable progress has been made in large-scale pre-trained model tuning, and inference efficiency is becoming more crucial for practical deployment. Early exiting in conjunction with multi-stage predictors, when cooperated with a parameter-efficient fine-tuning strategy, offers a straightforward way to achieve an inference-efficient model. However, a key challenge remains unresolved: How can early stages provide low-level fundamental features to deep stages while simultaneously supplying high-level discriminative features to early-stage predictors? To address this problem, we propose a Decoupled Multi-Predictor Optimization (DMPO) method to effectively decouple the low-level representative ability and high-level discriminative ability in early stages. First, in terms of architecture, we introduce a lightweight bypass module into multi-stage predictors for functional decomposition of shallow features from early stages, while a high-order statistics-based predictor is developed for early stages to effectively enhance their discriminative ability. To reasonably train our multi-predictor architecture, a decoupled optimization is proposed to allocate two-phase loss weights for multi-stage predictors during model tuning, where the initial training phase enables the model to prioritize the acquisition of discriminative ability of deep stages via emphasizing representative ability of early stages, and the latter training phase drives discriminative ability towards earlier stages as much as possible. As such, our DMPO can effectively decouple representative and discriminative abilities in early stages in terms of architecture design and model optimization. Experiments across various datasets and pre-trained backbones demonstrate that DMPO clearly outperforms its counterparts when reducing computational cost. Particularly, DMPO with 30% FLOPs is comparable with or even suppresses counterparts with 70% FLOPs.