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Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Matt Jones, Peter Chang, Kevin Murphy

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at the previous timestep); instead we can optimize just the expected log-likelihood, performing a single step of natural gradient descent starting at the prior predictive. We prove this method recovers exact Bayesian inference if the model is conjugate. We also show how to compute an efficient deterministic approximation to the VB objective, as well as our simplified objective, when the variational distribution is Gaussian or a sub-family, including the case of a diagonal plus low-rankprecision matrix.We show empirically that ourmethod outperforms other online VB methods in the non-conjugate setting, such as online learning for neural networks, especially when controlling for computational costs.

Generative Models · Diffusion models

Subham Sahoo, Aaron Gokaslan, Christopher De Sa, Volodymyr Kuleshov

Diffusion models have gained traction as powerful algorithms for synthesizing high-quality images. Central to these algorithms is the diffusion process, a set of equations which maps data to noise in a way that can significantly affect performance. In this paper, we explore whether the diffusionprocess can be learned from data.Our work is grounded in Bayesian inference and seeks to improve log-likelihood estimation by casting the learned diffusion process as an approximate variational posterior that yields a tighter lower bound (ELBO) on the likelihood.A widely held assumption is that the ELBO is invariant to the noise process: our work dispels this assumption and proposes multivariate learned adaptive noise (MuLAN), a learned diffusion process that applies noise at different rates across an image. Our method consists of three components: a multivariate noise schedule, adaptive input-conditional diffusion, and auxiliary variables; these components ensure that the ELBO is no longer invariant to the choice of the noise schedule as in previous works. Empirically, MuLAN sets a new **state-of-the-art** in density estimation on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet while matching the performance of previous state-of-the-art models with **50%** fewer steps. We provide the code, along with a blog post and video tutorial on the project page: https://s-sahoo.com/MuLAN

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Diana Cai, Chirag Modi, Charles Margossian, Robert Gower, David Blei, Lawrence Saul

We develop EigenVI, an eigenvalue-based approach for black-box variational inference (BBVI). EigenVI constructs its variational approximations from orthogonal function expansions. For distributions over $\mathbb{R}^D$, the lowest order term in these expansions provides a Gaussian variational approximation, while higher-order terms provide a systematic way to model non-Gaussianity. These approximations are flexible enough to model complex distributions (multimodal, asymmetric), but they are simple enough that one can calculate their low-order moments and draw samples from them. EigenVI can also model other types of random variables (e.g., nonnegative, bounded) by constructing variational approximations from different families of orthogonal functions. Within these families, EigenVI computes the variational approximation that best matches the score function of the target distribution by minimizing a stochastic estimate of the Fisher divergence. Notably, this optimization reduces to solving a minimum eigenvalue problem, so that EigenVI effectively sidesteps the iterative gradient-based optimizations that are required for many other BBVI algorithms. (Gradient-based methods can be sensitive to learning rates, termination criteria, and other tunable hyperparameters.) We use EigenVI to approximate a variety of target distributions, including a benchmark suite of Bayesian models from posteriordb. On these distributions, we find that EigenVI is more accurate than existing methods for Gaussian BBVI.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Ivan Butakov, Aleksandr Tolmachev, Sofia Malanchuk, Anna Neopryatnaya, Alexey Frolov

We propose a novel approach to the problem of mutual information (MI) estimation via introducing a family of estimators based on normalizing flows. The estimator maps original data to the target distribution, for which MI is easier to estimate. We additionally explore the target distributions with known closed-form expressions for MI. Theoretical guarantees are provided to demonstrate that our approach yields MI estimates for the original data. Experiments with high-dimensional data are conducted to highlight the practical advantages of the proposed method.

Optimization · Non-Convex

Oscar Leong, Eliza O'Reilly, Yong Sheng Soh

Variational regularization is a classical technique to solve statistical inference tasks and inverse problems, with modern data-driven approaches parameterizing regularizers via deep neural networks showcasing impressive empirical performance. Recent works along these lines learn task-dependent regularizers. This is done by integrating information about the measurements and ground-truth data in an unsupervised, critic-based loss function, where the regularizer attributes low values to likely data and high values to unlikely data. However, there is little theory about the structure of regularizers learned via this process and how it relates to the two data distributions. To make progress on this challenge, we initiate a study of optimizing critic-based loss functions to learn regularizers over a particular family of regularizers: gauges (or Minkowski functionals) of star-shaped bodies. This family contains regularizers that are commonly employed in practice and shares properties with regularizers parameterized by deep neural networks. We specifically investigate critic-based losses derived from variational representations of statistical distances between probability measures. By leveraging tools from star geometry and dual Brunn-Minkowski theory, we illustrate how these losses can be interpreted as dual mixed volumes that depend on the data distribution. This allows us to derive exact expressions for the optimal regularizer in certain cases. Finally, we identify which neural network architectures give rise to such star body gauges and when do such regularizers have favorable properties for optimization. More broadly, this work highlights how the tools of star geometry can aid in understanding the geometry of unsupervised regularizer learning.

Physical Models · Physics

Jules Berman, Tobias Blickhan, Benjamin Peherstorfer

The aim of this work is to learn models of population dynamics of physical systems that feature stochastic and mean-field effects and that depend on physics parameters. The learned models can act as surrogates of classical numerical models to efficiently predict the system behavior over the physics parameters. Building on the Benamou-Brenier formula from optimal transport and action matching, we use a variational problem to infer parameter- and time-dependent gradient fields that represent approximations of the population dynamics. The inferred gradient fields can then be used to rapidly generate sample trajectories that mimic the dynamics of the physical system on a population level over varying physics parameters. We show that combining Monte Carlo sampling with higher-order quadrature rules is critical for accurately estimating the training objective from sample data and for stabilizing the training process. We demonstrate on Vlasov-Poisson instabilities as well as on high-dimensional particle and chaotic systems that our approach accurately predicts population dynamics over a wide range of parameters and outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion-based and flow-based modeling that simply condition on time and physics parameters.

Reinforcement Learning · Batch Offline

Rui Yang, Jie Wang, Guoping Wu, Bin Li

Real-world offline datasets are often subject to data corruptions (such as noise or adversarial attacks) due to sensor failures or malicious attacks. Despite advances in robust offline reinforcement learning (RL), existing methods struggle to learn robust agents under high uncertainty caused by the diverse corrupted data (i.e., corrupted states, actions, rewards, and dynamics), leading to performance degradation in clean environments. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel robust variational Bayesian inference for offline RL (TRACER). It introduces Bayesian inference for the first time to capture the uncertainty via offline data for robustness against all types of data corruptions. Specifically, TRACER first models all corruptions as the uncertainty in the action-value function. Then, to capture such uncertainty, it uses all offline data as the observations to approximate the posterior distribution of the action-value function under a Bayesian inference framework. An appealing feature of TRACER is that it can distinguish corrupted data from clean data using an entropy-based uncertainty measure, since corrupted data often induces higher uncertainty and entropy. Based on the aforementioned measure, TRACER can regulate the loss associated with corrupted data to reduce its influence, thereby enhancing robustness and performance in clean environments. Experiments demonstrate that TRACER significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches across both individual and simultaneous data corruptions.

Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Hadi Vafaii, Dekel Galor, Jacob Yates

Variational autoencoders (VAE) employ Bayesian inference to interpret sensory inputs, mirroring processes that occur in primate vision across both ventral (Higgins et al., 2021) and dorsal (Vafaii et al., 2023) pathways. Despite their success, traditional VAEs rely on continuous latent variables, which significantly deviates from the discrete nature of biological neurons. Here, we developed the Poisson VAE (P-VAE), a novel architecture that combines principles of predictive coding with a VAE that encodes inputs into discrete spike counts. Combining Poisson-distributed latent variables with predictive coding introduces a metabolic cost term in the model loss function, suggesting a relationship with sparse coding which we verify empirically. Additionally, we analyze the geometry of learned representations, contrasting the P-VAE to alternative VAE models. We find that the P-VAE encodes its inputs in relatively higher dimensions, facilitating linear separability of categories in a downstream classification task with a much better (5x) sample efficiency. Our work provides an interpretable computational framework to study brain-like sensory processing and paves the way for a deeper understanding of perception as an inferential process.

Deep Learning · Representation Learning

Ali Behrouz, Michele Santacatterina, Ramin Zabih

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. It, however, is challenging as it requires methods to (1) have high expressive power of representing complicated dependencies along the time axis to capture both long-term progression and seasonal patterns, (2) capture the inter-variate dependencies when it is informative, (3) dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and (4) have efficient training and inference for very long sequences. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera, an expressive variation of the 2-dimensional SSMs with careful design of parameters to maintain high expressive power while keeping the training complexity linear. Using two SSM heads with different discretization processes and input-dependent parameters, Chimera is provably able to learn long-term progression, seasonal patterns, and desirable dynamic autoregressive processes. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Generative Models · Diffusion models

Xunpeng Huang, Difan Zou, Hanze Dong, Zhang, Yian Ma, Tong Zhang

To generate data from trained diffusion models, most inference algorithms, such as DDPM, DDIM, and other variants, rely on discretizing the reverse SDEs or their equivalent ODEs. In this paper, we view such approaches as decomposing the entire denoising diffusion process into several segments, each corresponding to a reverse transition kernel (RTK) sampling subproblem. Specifically, DDPM uses a Gaussian approximation for the RTK, resulting in low per-subproblem complexity but requiring a large number of segments (i.e., subproblems), which is conjectured to be inefficient. To address this, we develop a general RTK framework that enables a more balanced subproblem decomposition, resulting in $\tilde O(1)$ subproblems, each with strongly log-concave targets. We then propose leveraging two fast sampling algorithms, the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) and Underdamped Langevin Dynamics (ULD), for solving these strongly log-concave subproblems. This gives rise to the RTK-MALA and RTK-ULD algorithms for diffusion inference. In theory, we further develop the convergence guarantees for RTK-MALA and RTK-ULD in total variation (TV) distance: RTK-ULD can achieve $\epsilon$ target error within $\tilde{\mathcal O}(d^{1/2}\epsilon^{-1})$ under mild conditions, and RTK-MALA enjoys a $\mathcal{O}(d^{2}\log(d/\epsilon))$ convergence rate under slightly stricter conditions. These theoretical results surpass the state-of-the-art convergence rates for diffusion inference and are well supported by numerical experiments.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

François Bertholom, randal douc, François Roueff

Recent works in Variational Inference have examined alternative criteria to the commonly used exclusive Kullback-Leibler divergence. Encouraging empirical results have been obtained with the family of alpha-divergences, but few works have focused on the asymptotic properties of the proposed algorithms, especially as the number of iterations goes to infinity. In this paper, we study a procedure that ensures a monotonic decrease in the alpha-divergence. We provide sufficient conditions to guarantee its convergence to a local minimizer of the alpha-divergence at a geometric rate when the variational family belongs to the class of exponential models. The sample-based version of this ideal procedure involves biased gradient estimators, thus hindering any theoretical study. We propose an alternative unbiased algorithm, we prove its almost sure convergence to a local minimizer of the alpha-divergence, and a law of the iterated logarithm. Our results are exemplified with toy and real-data experiments.

Computer Vision · Segmentation

Sangyun Shin, Yuhang He, Madhu Vankadari, Ta-Ying Cheng, Qian Xie, Andrew Markham, Niki Trigoni

The performance of 3D object detection in large outdoor point clouds deteriorates significantly in an unseen environment due to the inter-domain gap. To address these challenges, most existing methods for domain adaptation harness self-training schemes and attempt to bridge the gap by focusing on a single factor that causes the inter-domain gap, such as objects' sizes, shapes, and foreground density variation. However, the resulting adaptations suggest that there is still a substantial inter-domain gap left to be minimized. We argue that this is due to two limitations: 1) Biased pseudo-label collection from self-training. 2) Multiple factors jointly contributing to how the object is perceived in the unseen target domain. In this work, we propose a grouping-exploration strategy framework, Group Explorer Domain Adaptation ($\textbf{GroupEXP-DA}$), to addresses those two issues. Specifically, our grouping divides the available label sets into multiple clusters and ensures all of them have equal learning attention with the group-equivariant spatial feature, avoiding dominant types of objects causing imbalance problems. Moreover, grouping learns to divide objects by considering inherent factors in a data-driven manner, without considering each factor separately as existing works. On top of the group-equivariant spatial feature that selectively detects objects similar to the input group, we additionally introduce an explorative group update strategy that reduces the false negative detection in the target domain, further reducing the inter-domain gap. During inference, only the learned group features are necessary for making the group-equivariant spatial feature, placing our method as a simple add-on that can be applicable to most existing detectors. We show how each module contributes to substantially bridging the inter-domain gaps compared to existing works across large urban outdoor datasets such as NuScenes, Waymo, and KITTI.

Computer Vision · Stereo

Ruiqi Li, Yiu-ming Cheung

Recently, 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has become popular in reconstructing dense 3D representations of appearance and geometry. However, the learning pipeline in 3DGS inherently lacks the ability to quantify uncertainty, which is an important factor in applications like robotics mapping and navigation. In this paper, we propose an uncertainty estimation method built upon the Bayesian inference framework. Specifically, we propose a method to build variational multi-scale 3D Gaussians, where we leverage explicit scale information in 3DGS parameters to construct diversified parameter space samples. We develop an offset table technique to draw local multi-scale samples efficiently by offsetting selected attributes and sharing other base attributes. Then, the offset table is learned by variational inference with multi-scale prior. The learned offset posterior can quantify the uncertainty of each individual Gaussian component, and be used in the forward pass to infer the predictive uncertainty. Extensive experimental results on various benchmark datasets show that the proposed method provides well-aligned calibration performance on estimated uncertainty and better rendering quality compared with the previous methods that enable uncertainty quantification with view synthesis. Besides, by leveraging the model parameter uncertainty estimated by our method, we can remove noisy Gaussians automatically, thereby obtaining a high-fidelity part of the reconstructed scene, which is of great help in improving the visual quality.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Jen Ning Lim, Adam Johansen

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) enriches the expressiveness of variationalfamilies by utilizing a kernel and a mixing distribution to hierarchically define thevariational distribution. Existing SIVI methods parameterize the mixing distributionusing implicit distributions, leading to intractable variational densities. As a result,directly maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) is not possible, so theyresort to one of the following: optimizing bounds on the ELBO, employing costlyinner-loop Markov chain Monte Carlo runs, or solving minimax objectives. In thispaper, we propose a novel method for SIVI called Particle Variational Inference(PVI) which employs empirical measures to approximate the optimal mixingdistributions characterized as the minimizer of a free energy functional. PVI arisesnaturally as a particle approximation of a Euclidean–Wasserstein gradient flow and,unlike prior works, it directly optimizes the ELBO whilst making no parametricassumption about the mixing distribution. Our empirical results demonstrate thatPVI performs favourably compared to other SIVI methods across various tasks.Moreover, we provide a theoretical analysis of the behaviour of the gradient flowof a related free energy functional: establishing the existence and uniqueness ofsolutions as well as propagation of chaos results.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Heiko Zimmermann, Christian Andersson Naesseth, Jan-Willem van de Meent

We present variational inference with sequential sample-average approximations (VISA), a method for approximate inference in computationally intensive models, such as those based on numerical simulations. VISA extends importance-weighted forward-KL variational inference by employing a sequence of sample-average approximations, which are considered valid inside a trust region. This makes it possible to reuse model evaluations across multiple gradient steps, thereby reducing computational cost. We perform experiments on high-dimensional Gaussians, Lotka-Volterra dynamics, and a Pickover attractor, which demonstrate that VISA can achieve comparable approximation accuracy to standard importance-weighted forward-KL variational inference with computational savings of a factor two or more for conservatively chosen learning rates.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Shiyue Zhang, Longlin Yu, Ziheng Cheng, Cheng Zhang

Recently, through a unified gradient flow perspective of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference (VI), particle-based variational inference methods (ParVIs) have been proposed that tend to combine the best of both worlds. While typical ParVIs such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) approximate the gradient flow within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), many attempts have been made recently to replace RKHS with more expressive function spaces, such as neural networks. While successful, these methods are mainly designed for sampling from unconstrained domains. In this paper, we offer a general solution to constrained sampling by introducing a boundary condition for the gradient flow which would confine the particles within the specific domain. This allows us to propose a new functional gradient ParVI method for constrained sampling, called *constrained functional gradient flow* (CFG), with provable continuous-time convergence in total variation (TV). We also present novel numerical strategies to handle the boundary integral term arising from the domain constraints. Our theory and experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Robotics

Hongyi Zhou, Denis Blessing, Ge Li, Onur Celik, Xiaogang Jia, Gerhard Neumann, Rudolf Lioutikov

This work introduces Variational Diffusion Distillation (VDD), a novel method that distills denoising diffusion policies into Mixtures of Experts (MoE) through variational inference. Diffusion Models are the current state-of-the-art in generative modeling due to their exceptional ability to accurately learn and represent complex, multi-modal distributions. This ability allows Diffusion Models to replicate the inherent diversity in human behavior, making them the preferred models in behavior learning such as Learning from Human Demonstrations (LfD).However, diffusion models come with some drawbacks, including the intractability of likelihoods and long inference times due to their iterative sampling process. The inference times, in particular, pose a significant challenge to real-time applications such as robot control.In contrast, MoEs effectively address the aforementioned issues while retaining the ability to represent complex distributions but are notoriously difficult to train.VDD is the first method that distills pre-trained diffusion models into MoE models, and hence, combines the expressiveness of Diffusion Models with the benefits of Mixture Models.Specifically, VDD leverages a decompositional upper bound of the variational objective that allows the training of each expert separately, resulting in a robust optimization scheme for MoEs.VDD demonstrates across nine complex behavior learning tasks, that it is able to: i) accurately distill complex distributions learned by the diffusion model, ii) outperform existing state-of-the-art distillation methods, and iii) surpass conventional methods for training MoE. The code and videos are available at https://intuitive-robots.github.io/vdd-website.

Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Eli Sennesh, Hao Wu, Tommaso Salvatori

Unexpected stimuli induce "error" or "surprise" signals in the brain. The theory of predictive coding promises to explain these observations in terms of Bayesian inference by suggesting that the cortex implements variational inference in a probabilistic graphical model. However, when applied to machine learning tasks, this family of algorithms has yet to perform on par with other variational approaches in high-dimensional, structured inference problems. To address this, we introduce a novel predictive coding algorithm for structured generative models, that we call divide-and-conquer predictive coding (DCPC); it differs from other formulations of predictive coding, as it respects the correlation structure of the generative model and provably performs maximum-likelihood updates of model parameters, all without sacrificing biological plausibility. Empirically, DCPC achieves better numerical performance than competing algorithms and provides accurate inference in a number of problems not previously addressed with predictive coding. We provide an open implementation of DCPC in Pyro on Github.

Computer Vision

Tyler Bonnen, Stephanie Fu, Yutong Bai, Thomas O'Connell, Yoni Friedman, Nancy Kanwisher, Josh Tenenbaum, Alexei Efros

We introduce a benchmark to directly evaluate the alignment between human observers and vision models on a 3D shape inference task. We leverage an experimental design from the cognitive sciences: given a set of images, participants identify which contain the same/different objects, despite considerable viewpoint variation. We draw from a diverse range of images that include common objects (e.g., chairs) as well as abstract shapes (i.e., procedurally generated 'nonsense' objects). After constructing over 2000 unique image sets, we administer these tasks to human participants, collecting 35K trials of behavioral data from over 500 participants. This includes explicit choice behaviors as well as intermediate measures, such as reaction time and gaze data. We then evaluate the performance of common vision models (e.g., DINOv2, MAE, CLIP). We find that humans outperform all models by a wide margin. Using a multi-scale evaluation approach, we identify underlying similarities and differences between models and humans: while human-model performance is correlated, humans allocate more time/processing on challenging trials. All images, data, and code can be accessed via our project page.

Optimization

Kexin Jin, Jonas Latz, Chenguang Liu, Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb

Optimization problems with continuous data appear in, e.g., robust machine learning, functional data analysis, and variational inference. Here, the target function is given as an integral over a family of (continuously) indexed target functions---integrated with respect to a probability measure. Such problems can often be solved by stochastic optimization methods: performing optimization steps with respect to the indexed target function with randomly switched indices. In this work, we study a continuous-time variant of the stochastic gradient descent algorithm for optimization problems with continuous data. This so-called stochastic gradient process consists in a gradient flow minimizing an indexed target function that is coupled with a continuous-time index process determining the index. Index processes are, e.g., reflected diffusions, pure jump processes, or other Lévy processes on compact spaces. Thus, we study multiple sampling patterns for the continuous data space and allow for data simulated or streamed at runtime of the algorithm. We analyze the approximation properties of the stochastic gradient process and study its longtime behavior and ergodicity under constant and decreasing learning rates. We end with illustrating the applicability of the stochastic gradient process in a polynomial regression problem with noisy functional data, as well as in a physics-informed neural network.