The Naïve Mean Field (NMF) approximation is widely employed in modern Machine Learning due to the huge computational gains it bestows on the statistician. Despite its popularity in practice, theoretical guarantees for high-dimensional problems are only available under strong structural assumptions (e.g. sparsity). Moreover, existing theory often does not explain empirical observations noted in the existing literature. In this paper, we take a step towards addressing these problems by deriving sharp asymptotic characterizations for the NMF approximation in high-dimensional linear regression. Our results apply to a wide class of natural priors and allow for model mismatch (i.e. the underlying statistical model can be different from the fitted model). We work under an iid Gaussian design and the proportional asymptotic regime, where the number of features and number of observations grow at a proportional rate. As a consequence of our asymptotic characterization, we establish two concrete corollaries: (a) we establish the inaccuracy of the NMF approximation for the log-normalizing constant in this regime, and (b) we provide theoretical results backing the empirical observation that the NMF approximation can be overconfident in terms of uncertainty quantification.Our results utilize recent advances in the theory of Gaussian comparison inequalities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of these ideas to the analysis of Bayesian variational inference problems. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical experiments. Lastly, we believe our results can be generalized to non-Gaussian designs and provide empirical evidence to support it.
论文检索
输入标题、作者或关键词，从 826 篇学术成果中精准定位
Theory/Online Learning and Bandits
Certifiable, adaptive uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities are an essential ingredient of sequential decision-making algorithms. Standard approaches rely on problem-dependent concentration results and are limited to a specific combination of parameterization, noise family, and estimator. In this paper, we revisit the likelihood-based inference principle and propose to use \emph{likelihood ratios} to construct \emph{any-time valid} confidence sequences without requiring specialized treatment in each application scenario. Our method is especially suitable for problems with well-specified likelihoods, and the resulting sets always maintain the prescribed coverage in a model-agnostic manner. The size of the sets depends on a choice of estimator sequence in the likelihood ratio. We discuss how to provably choose the best sequence of estimators and shed light on connections to online convex optimization with algorithms such as Follow-the-Regularized-Leader. To counteract the initially large bias of the estimators, we propose a reweighting scheme that also opens up deployment in non-parametric settings such as RKHS function classes. We provide a \emph{non-asymptotic} analysis of the likelihood ratio confidence sets size for generalized linear models, using insights from convex duality and online learning. We showcase the practical strength of our method on generalized linear bandit problems, survival analysis, and bandits with various additive noise distributions.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Online Learning, Active Learning and Bandits
Multitask learning is a powerful framework that enables one to simultaneously learn multiple related tasks by sharing information between them. Quantifying uncertainty in the estimated tasks is of pivotal importance for many downstream applications, such as online or active learning. In this work, we provide novel confidence intervals for multitask regression in the challenging agnostic setting, i.e., when neither the similarity between tasks nor the tasks' features are available to the learner. The obtained intervals do not require i.i.d. data and can be directly applied to bound the regret in online learning. Through a refined analysis of the multitask information gain, we obtain new regret guarantees that, depending on a task similarity parameter, can significantly improve over treating tasks independently. We further propose a novel online learning algorithm that achieves such improved regret without knowing this parameter in advance, i.e., automatically adapting to task similarity. As a second key application of our results, we introduce a novel multitask active learning setup where several tasks must be simultaneously optimized, but only one of them can be queried for feedback by the learner at each round. For this problem, we design a no-regret algorithm that uses our confidence intervals to decide which task should be queried. Finally, we empirically validate our bounds and algorithms on synthetic and real-world (drug discovery) data.
Optimization/Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty
When deploying machine learning solutions, they must satisfy multiple requirements beyond accuracy, such as fairness, robustness, or safety. These requirements are imposed during training either implicitly, using penalties, or explicitly, using constrained optimization methods based on Lagrangian duality. Either way, specifying requirements is hindered by the presence of compromises and limited prior knowledge about the data. Furthermore, their impact on performance can often only be evaluated by actually solving the learning problem. This paper presents a constrained learning approach that adapts the requirements while simultaneously solving the learning task. To do so, it relaxes the learning constraints in a way that contemplates how much they affect the task at hand by balancing the performance gains obtained from the relaxation against a user-defined cost of that relaxation. We call this approach resilient constrained learning after the term used to describe ecological systems that adapt to disruptions by modifying their operation. We show conditions under which this balance can be achieved and introduce a practical algorithm to compute it, for which we derive approximation and generalization guarantees. We showcase the advantages of this resilient learning method in image classification tasks involving multiple potential invariances and in federated learning under distribution shift.
Optimization/Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such as machining errors, execution noise, or contextual variability. This uncertainty deviates the input from the intended value before evaluation, resulting in significant performance fluctuations in the final result. In this paper, we introduce a novel robust Bayesian Optimization algorithm, AIRBO, which can effectively identify a robust optimum that performs consistently well under arbitrary input uncertainty. Our method directly models the uncertain inputs of arbitrary distributions by empowering the Gaussian Process with the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and further accelerates the posterior inference via Nystrom approximation. Rigorous theoretical regret bound is established under MMD estimation error and extensive experiments on synthetic functions and real problems demonstrate that our approach can handle various input uncertainties and achieve a state-of-the-art performance.
Applications/Neuroscience, Cognitive Science
Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decision-making tasks. Most existing work, however, is limited to fully observable or linear systems, or requires the action signals to be known. Here, we introduce a probabilistic approach to inverse optimal control for partially observable stochastic non-linear systems with unobserved action signals, which unifies previous approaches to inverse optimal control with maximum causal entropy formulations. Using an explicit model of the noise characteristics of the sensory and motor systems of the agent in conjunction with local linearization techniques, we derive an approximate likelihood function for the model parameters, which can be computed within a single forward pass. We present quantitative evaluations on stochastic and partially observable versions of two classic control tasks and two human behavioral tasks. Importantly, we show that our method can disentangle perceptual factors and behavioral costs despite the fact that epistemic and pragmatic actions are intertwined in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, such as in active sensing and active learning. The proposed method has broad applicability, ranging from imitation learning to sensorimotor neuroscience.
Reinforcement Learning/Risk Sensitive
In reinforcement learning, robust policies for high-stakes decision-making problems with limited data are usually computed by optimizing the percentile criterion. The percentile criterion is optimized by constructing an uncertainty set that contains the true model with high probability and optimizing the policy for the worst model in the set. Since the percentile criterion is non-convex, constructing these sets itself is challenging. Existing works use Bayesian credible regions as uncertainty sets, but they are often unnecessarily large and result in learning overly conservative policies. To overcome these shortcomings, we propose a novel Value-at-Risk based dynamic programming algorithm to optimize the percentile criterion without explicitly constructing any uncertainty sets. Our theoretical and empirical results show that our algorithm implicitly constructs much smaller uncertainty sets and learns less-conservative robust policies.
Deep Learning/Robustness
The recently developed sparse network training methods, such as Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (LTH) and its variants, have shown impressive learning capacity by finding sparse sub-networks from a dense one. While these methods could largely sparsify deep networks, they generally focus more on realizing comparable accuracy to dense counterparts yet neglect network calibration. However, how to achieve calibrated network predictions lies at the core of improving model reliability, especially when it comes to addressing the overconfident issue and out-of-distribution cases. In this study, we propose a novel Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework to achieve an ensemble of lottery tickets towards calibrated network sparsification. Specifically, the proposed DRO ensemble aims to learn multiple diverse and complementary sparse sub-networks (tickets) with the guidance of uncertainty sets, which encourage tickets to gradually capture different data distributions from easy to hard and naturally complement each other. We theoretically justify the strong calibration performance by showing how the proposed robust training process guarantees to lower the confidence of incorrect predictions. Extensive experimental results on several benchmarks show that our proposed lottery ticket ensemble leads to a clear calibration improvement without sacrificing accuracy and burdening inference costs. Furthermore, experiments on OOD datasets demonstrate the robustness of our approach in the open-set environment.
Reinforcement Learning
Offline inverse reinforcement learning (Offline IRL) aims to recover the structure of rewards and environment dynamics that underlie observed actions in a fixed, finite set of demonstrations from an expert agent. Accurate models of expertise in executing a task has applications in safety-sensitive applications such as clinical decision making and autonomous driving. However, the structure of an expert's preferences implicit in observed actions is closely linked to the expert's model of the environment dynamics (i.e. the ``world''). Thus, inaccurate models of the world obtained from finite data with limited coverage could compound inaccuracy in estimated rewards. To address this issue, we propose a bi-level optimization formulation of the estimation task wherein the upper level is likelihood maximization based upon a conservative model of the expert's policy (lower level). The policy model is conservative in that it maximizes reward subject to a penalty that is increasing in the uncertainty of the estimated model of the world. We propose a new algorithmic framework to solve the bi-level optimization problem formulation and provide statistical and computational guarantees of performance for the associated optimal reward estimator. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art offline IRL and imitation learning benchmarks by a large margin, over the continuous control tasks in MuJoCo and different datasets in the D4RL benchmark.
Theory/Online Learning and Bandits
We present improved algorithms with worst-case regret guarantees for the stochastic linear bandit problem. The widely used "optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle reduces a stochastic bandit problem to the construction of a confidence sequence for the unknown reward function. The performance of the resulting bandit algorithm depends on the size of the confidence sequence, with smaller confidence sets yielding better empirical performance and stronger regret guarantees. In this work, we use a novel tail bound for adaptive martingale mixtures to construct confidence sequences which are suitable for stochastic bandits. These confidence sequences allow for efficient action selection via convex programming. We prove that a linear bandit algorithm based on our confidence sequences is guaranteed to achieve competitive worst-case regret. We show that our confidence sequences are tighter than competitors, both empirically and theoretically. Finally, we demonstrate that our tighter confidence sequences give improved performance in several hyperparameter tuning tasks.
Applications/Chemistry and Drug Discovery
We introduce GAUCHE, an open-source library for GAUssian processes in CHEmistry. Gaussian processes have long been a cornerstone of probabilistic machine learning, affording particular advantages for uncertainty quantification and Bayesian optimisation. Extending Gaussian processes to molecular representations, however, necessitates kernels defined over structured inputs such as graphs, strings and bit vectors. By providing such kernels in a modular, robust and easy-to-use framework, we seek to enable expert chemists and materials scientists to make use of state-of-the-art black-box optimization techniques. Motivated by scenarios frequently encountered in practice, we showcase applications for GAUCHE in molecular discovery, chemical reaction optimisation and protein design. The codebase is made available at https://github.com/leojklarner/gauche.
Optimization
Recent works in learning-integrated optimization have shown promise in settings where the optimization problem is only partially observed or where general-purpose optimizers perform poorly without expert tuning. By learning an optimizer $\mathbf{g}$ to tackle these challenging problems with $f$ as the objective, the optimization process can be substantially accelerated by leveraging past experience. The optimizer can be trained with supervision from known optimal solutions or implicitly by optimizing the compound function $f\circ \mathbf{g}$. The implicit approach may not require optimal solutions as labels and is capable of handling problem uncertainty; however, it is slow to train and deploy due to frequent calls to optimizer $\mathbf{g}$ during both training and testing. The training is further challenged by sparse gradients of $\mathbf{g}$, especially for combinatorial solvers. To address these challenges, we propose using a smooth and learnable **Landscape Surrogate** $\mathcal{M}$ as a replacement for $f\circ \mathbf{g}$. This surrogate, learnable by neural networks, can be computed faster than the solver $\mathbf{g}$, provides dense and smooth gradients during training, can generalize to unseen optimization problems, and is efficiently learned via alternating optimization. We test our approach on both synthetic problems, including shortest path and multidimensional knapsack, and real-world problems such as portfolio optimization, achieving comparable or superior objective values compared to state-of-the-art baselines while reducing the number of calls to $\mathbf{g}$. Notably, our approach outperforms existing methods for computationally expensive high-dimensional problems.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning
Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs) are a class of metalearning models popular for combining the runtime efficiency of amortized inference with reliable uncertainty quantification. Many relevant machine learning tasks, such as in spatio-temporal modeling, Bayesian Optimization and continuous control, inherently contain equivariances – for example to translation – which the model can exploit for maximal performance. However, prior attempts to include equivariances in CNPs do not scale effectively beyond two input dimensions. In this work, we propose Relational Conditional Neural Processes (RCNPs), an effective approach to incorporate equivariances into any neural process model. Our proposed method extends the applicability and impact of equivariant neural processes to higher dimensions. We empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of RCNPs on a large array of tasks naturally containing equivariances.
Optimization/Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty
The study of robustness has received much attention due to its inevitability in data-driven settings where many systems face uncertainty. One such example of concern is Bayesian Optimization (BO), where uncertainty is multi-faceted, yet there only exists a limited number of works dedicated to this direction. In particular, there is the work of Kirschner et al., which bridges the existing literature of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) by casting the BO problem from the lens of DRO. While this work is pioneering, it admittedly suffers from various practical shortcomings such as finite contexts assumptions, leaving behind the main question \textit{Can one devise a computationally tractable algorithm for solving this DRO-BO problem}? In this work, we tackle this question to a large degree of generality by considering robustness against data-shift in $\varphi$-divergences, which subsumes many popular choices, such as the $\chi^2$-divergence, Total Variation, and the extant Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We show that the DRO-BO problem in this setting is equivalent to a finite-dimensional optimization problem which, even in the continuous context setting, can be easily implemented with provable sublinear regret bounds. We then show experimentally that our method surpasses existing methods, attesting to the theoretical results.
Optimization/Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty
Wasserstein distributionally robust estimators have emerged as powerful models for prediction and decision-making under uncertainty. These estimators provide attractive generalization guarantees: the robust objective obtained from the training distribution is an exact upper bound on the true risk with high probability. However, existing guarantees either suffer from the curse of dimensionality, are restricted to specific settings, or lead to spurious error terms. In this paper, we show that these generalization guarantees actually hold on general classes of models, do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and can even cover distribution shifts at testing. We also prove that these results carry over to the newly-introduced regularized versions of Wasserstein distributionally robust problems.
Reinforcement Learning/Deep RL
Reinforcement learning with the help of neural-guided search consumes huge computational resources to achieve remarkable performance. Path consistency (PC), i.e., $f$ values on one optimal path should be identical, was previously imposed on MCTS by PCZero to improve the learning efficiency of AlphaZero. Not only PCZero still lacks a theoretical support but also considers merely board games. In this paper, PCZero is generalized into GW-PCZero for real applications with non-zero immediate reward. A weighting mechanism is introduced to reduce the variance caused by scouting's uncertainty on the $f$ value estimation. For the first time, it is theoretically proved that neural-guided MCTS is guaranteed to find the optimal solution under the constraint of PC. Experiments are conducted on the Atari $100$k benchmark with $26$ games and GW-PCZero achieves $198\%$ mean human performance, higher than the state-of-the-art EfficientZero's $194\\%$, while consuming only $25\\%$ of the computational resources consumed by EfficientZero.
Optimization/Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty
Contextual optimization, also known as predict-then-optimize or prescriptive analytics, considers an optimization problem with the presence of covariates (context or side information). The goal is to learn a prediction model (from the training data) that predicts the objective function from the covariates, and then in the test phase, solve the optimization problem with the covariates but without the observation of the objective function. In this paper, we consider a risk-sensitive version of the problem and propose a generic algorithm design paradigm called predict-then-calibrate. The idea is to first develop a prediction model without concern for the downstream risk profile or robustness guarantee, and then utilize calibration (or recalibration) methods to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. While the existing methods suffer from either a restricted choice of the prediction model or strong assumptions on the underlying data, we show the disentangling of the prediction model and the calibration/uncertainty quantification has several advantages. First, it imposes no restriction on the prediction model and thus fully unleashes the potential of off-the-shelf machine learning methods. Second, the derivation of the risk and robustness guarantee can be made independent of the choice of the prediction model through a data-splitting idea. Third, our paradigm of predict-then-calibrate applies to both (risk-sensitive) robust and (risk-neutral) distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulations. Theoretically, it gives new generalization bounds for the contextual LP problem and sheds light on the existing results of DRO for contextual LP. Numerical experiments further reinforce the advantage of the predict-then-calibrate paradigm in that an improvement on either the prediction model or the calibration model will lead to a better final performance.
Optimization/Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects substantial noises and biases. These hinder the attainment of statistical guarantees and, moreover, impose computational challenges on UQ due to the need for repeated network retraining. Building upon the recent neural tangent kernel theory, we create statistically guaranteed schemes to principally \emph{characterize}, and \emph{remove}, the uncertainty of over-parameterized neural networks with very low computation effort. In particular, our approach, based on what we call a procedural-noise-correcting (PNC) predictor, removes the procedural uncertainty by using only \emph{one} auxiliary network that is trained on a suitably labeled dataset, instead of many retrained networks employed in deep ensembles. Moreover, by combining our PNC predictor with suitable light-computation resampling methods, we build several approaches to construct asymptotically exact-coverage confidence intervals using as low as four trained networks without additional overheads.
Reinforcement Learning/Risk Sensitive
Safe exploration is essential for the practical use of reinforcement learning (RL) in many real-world scenarios. In this paper, we present a generalized safe exploration (GSE) problem as a unified formulation of common safe exploration problems. We then propose a solution of the GSE problem in the form of a meta-algorithm for safe exploration, MASE, which combines an unconstrained RL algorithm with an uncertainty quantifier to guarantee safety in the current episode while properly penalizing unsafe explorations before actual safety violation to discourage them in future episodes. The advantage of MASE is that we can optimize a policy while guaranteeing with a high probability that no safety constraint will be violated under proper assumptions. Specifically, we present two variants of MASE with different constructions of the uncertainty quantifier: one based on generalized linear models with theoretical guarantees of safety and near-optimality, and another that combines a Gaussian process to ensure safety with a deep RL algorithm to maximize the reward. Finally, we demonstrate that our proposed algorithm achieves better performance than state-of-the-art algorithms on grid-world and Safety Gym benchmarks without violating any safety constraints, even during training.
Reinforcement Learning/Function Approximation
Learning to control unknown nonlinear dynamical systems is a fundamental problem in reinforcement learning and control theory. A commonly applied approach is to first explore the environment (exploration), learn an accurate model of it (system identification), and then compute an optimal controller with the minimum cost on this estimated system (policy optimization). While existing work has shown that it is possible to learn a uniformly good model of the system (Mania et al., 2020), in practice, if we aim to learn a good controller with a low cost on the actual system, certain system parameters may be significantly more critical than others, and we therefore ought to focus our exploration on learning such parameters.In this work, we consider the setting of nonlinear dynamical systems and seek to formally quantify, in such settings, (a) which parameters are most relevant to learning a good controller, and (b) how we can best explore so as to minimize uncertainty in such parameters. Inspired by recent work in linear systems (Wagenmaker et al., 2021), we show that minimizing the controller loss in nonlinear systems translates to estimating the system parameters in a particular, task-dependent metric. Motivated by this, we develop an algorithm able to efficiently explore the system to reduce uncertainty in this metric, and prove a lower bound showing that our approach learns a controller at a near-instance-optimal rate. Our algorithm relies on a general reduction from policy optimization to optimal experiment design in arbitrary systems, and may be of independent interest. We conclude with experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of our method in realistic nonlinear robotic systems.