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Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Abrar Majeedi, Viswanatha Reddy Gajjala, Satya Sai Srinath Namburi GNVV, Nada Elkordi, Yin Li

Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Daoyu Wang, Mingyue Cheng, Zhiding Liu, Qi Liu

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose \textbf{TimeDART}, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way.We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach.Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART}.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Vincent Herrmann, Róbert Csordás, Jürgen Schmidhuber

Detecting when a neural sequence model does "interesting" computation is an open problem. The next token prediction loss is a poor indicator: Low loss can stem from trivially predictable sequences that are uninteresting, while high loss may reflect unpredictable but also irrelevant information that can be ignored by the model. We propose a better metric: measuring the model's ability to predict its own future hidden states. We show empirically that this metric–in contrast to the next token prediction loss–correlates with the intuitive interestingness of the task. To measure predictability, we introduce the architecture-agnostic "prediction of hidden states" (PHi) layer that serves as an information bottleneck on the main pathway of the network (e.g., the residual stream in Transformers). We propose a novel learned predictive prior that enables us to measure the novel information gained in each computation step, which serves as our metric. We show empirically that our metric predicts the description length of formal languages learned in-context, the complexity of mathematical reasoning problems, and the correctness of self-generated reasoning chains.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Dong Huang, Pengkun Yang

Correlation analysis is a fundamental step in uncovering meaningful insights from complex datasets. In this paper, we study the problem of detecting correlations between two random graphs following the Gaussian Wigner model with unlabeled vertices. Specifically, the task is formulated as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, the two graphs are independent, while under the alternative hypothesis, they are edge-correlated through a latent vertex permutation, yet maintain the same marginal distributions as under the null. We focus on the scenario where two induced subgraphs, each with a fixed number of vertices, are sampled. We determine the optimal rate for the sample size required for correlation detection, derived through an analysis of the conditional second moment. Additionally, we propose an efficient approximate algorithm that significantly reduces running time.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yitian Zhang, Liheng Ma, Antonios Valkanas, Boris Oreshkin, Mark Coates

Koopman operator theory provides a framework for nonlinear dynamical system analysis and time-series forecasting by mapping dynamics to a space of real-valued measurement functions, enabling a linear operator representation. Despite the advantage of linearity, the operator is generally infinite-dimensional. Therefore, the objective is to learn measurement functions that yield a tractable finite-dimensional Koopman operator approximation. In this work, we establish a connection between Koopman operator approximation and linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which have recently demonstrated remarkable success in sequence modeling. We show that by considering an extended state consisting of lagged observations, we can establish an equivalence between a structured Koopman operator and linear RNN updates. Building on this connection, we present SKOLR, which integrates a learnable spectral decomposition of the input signal with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) as the measurement functions and implements a structured Koopman operator via a highly parallel linear RNN stack. Numerical experiments on various forecasting benchmarks and dynamical systems show that this streamlined, Koopman-theory-based design delivers exceptional performance. Our code is available at: https://github.com/networkslab/SKOLR.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Yu-Yang Qian, Yuan-Ze Xu, Zhen-Yu Zhang, Peng Zhao, Zhi-Hua Zhou

Many real-world applications collect data in a streaming environment, where learning tasks are encountered sequentially. This necessitates *continual learning* (CL) to update models online, enabling adaptation to new tasks while preserving past knowledge to prevent catastrophic forgetting. Nowadays, with the flourish of *large pre-trained models* (LPMs), *efficiency* has become increasingly critical for CL, due to their substantial computational demands and growing parameter sizes. In this paper, we introduce TreeLoRA (K-D Tree of Low-Rank Adapters), a novel approach that constructs *layer-wise* adapters by leveraging hierarchical gradient similarity to enable efficient CL, particularly for LPMs. To reduce the computational burden of task similarity estimation, we employ *bandit* techniques to develop an algorithm based on lower confidence bounds to efficiently explore the task structure. Furthermore, we use sparse gradient updates to facilitate parameter optimization, making the approach better suited for LPMs. Theoretical analysis is provided to justify the rationale behind our approach, and experiments on both *vision transformers* (ViTs) and *large language models* (LLMs) demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach across various domains, including vision and natural language processing tasks.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Srinath Dama, Kevin L Course, Prasanth B Nair

We present an operator-theoretic framework for temporal and spatio-temporal forecasting based on learning a *continuous time-shift operator*. Our operator learning paradigm offers a continuous relaxation of the discrete lag factor used in traditional autoregressive models, enabling the history of a system up to a given time to be mapped to its future values. We parametrize the time-shift operator using Khatri-Rao neural operators (KRNOs), a novel architecture based on non-stationary integral transforms with nearly linear computational scaling. Our framework naturally handles irregularly sampled observations and enables forecasting at super-resolution in both space and time. Extensive numerical studies across diverse temporal and spatio-temporal benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art or competitive performance with leading methods.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Samidha Verma, Arushi Goyal, Ananya Mathur, Ankit Anand, Sayan Ranu

Graph Edit Distance (GED) is a widely used metric for measuring similarity between two graphs. Computing the optimal GED is NP-hard, leading to the development of various neural and non-neural heuristics. While neural methods have achieved improved approximation quality compared to non-neural approaches, they face significant challenges: (1) They require large amounts of ground truth data, which is itself NP-hard to compute. (2) They operate as black boxes, offering limited interpretability. (3) They lack cross-domain generalization, necessitating expensive retraining for each new dataset. We address these limitations with GRAIL, introducing a paradigm shift in this domain. Instead of training a neural model to predict GED, GRAIL employs a novel combination of large language models (LLMs) and automated prompt tuning to generate a *program* that is used to compute GED. This shift from predicting GED to generating programs imparts various advantages, including end-to-end interpretability and an autonomous self-evolutionary learning mechanism without ground-truth supervision. Extensive experiments on seven datasets confirm that GRAIL not only surpasses state-of-the-art GED approximation methods in prediction quality but also achieves robust cross-domain generalization across diverse graph distributions.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Yan Ru Pei

We introduce Centaurus, a class of networks composed of generalized state-space model (SSM) blocks, where the SSM operations can be treated as tensor contractions during training. The optimal order of tensor contractions can then be systematically determined for every SSM block to maximize training efficiency. This allows more flexibility in designing SSM blocks beyond the depthwise-separable configuration commonly implemented. The new design choices will take inspiration from classical convolutional blocks including group convolutions, full convolutions, and bottleneck blocks. We architect the Centaurus network with a mixture of these blocks, to balance between network size and performance, as well as memory and computational efficiency during both training and inference. We show that this heterogeneous network design outperforms its homogeneous counterparts in raw audio processing tasks including keyword spotting, speech denoising, and automatic speech recognition (ASR). For ASR, Centaurus is the first network with competitive performance that can be made fully state-space based, without using any nonlinear recurrence (LSTMs), explicit convolutions (CNNs), or (surrogate) attention mechanism.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

T. Konstantin Rusch, Daniela Rus

We propose Linear Oscillatory State-Space models (LinOSS) for efficiently learning on long sequences. Inspired by cortical dynamics of biological neural networks, we base our proposed LinOSS model on a system of forced harmonic oscillators. A stable discretization, integrated over time using fast associative parallel scans, yields the proposed state-space model. We prove that LinOSS produces stable dynamics only requiring nonnegative diagonal state matrix. This is in stark contrast to many previous state-space models relying heavily on restrictive parameterizations. Moreover, we rigorously show that LinOSS is universal, i.e., it can approximate any continuous and causal operator mapping between time-varying functions, to desired accuracy. In addition, we show that an implicit-explicit discretization of LinOSS perfectly conserves the symmetry of time reversibility of the underlying dynamics. Together, these properties enable efficient modeling of long-range interactions, while ensuring stable and accurate long-horizon forecasting. Finally, our empirical results, spanning a wide range of time-series tasks from mid-range to very long-range classification and regression, as well as long-horizon forecasting, demonstrate that our proposed LinOSS model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models. Notably, LinOSS outperforms Mamba and LRU by nearly 2x on a sequence modeling task with sequences of length 50k.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yunshi Wen, Tengfei Ma, Ronny Luss, Debarun Bhattacharjya, Achille Fokoue, Anak Agung Julius

In time-series classification, interpretable models can bring additional insights but be outperformed by deep models since human-understandable features have limited expressivity and flexibility. In this work, we present InterpGN, a framework that integrates an interpretable model and a deep neural network. Within this framework, we introduce a novel gating function design based on the confidence of the interpretable expert, preserving interpretability for samples where interpretable features are significant while also identifying samples that require additional expertise. For the interpretable expert, we incorporate shapelets to effectively model shape-level features for time-series data. We introduce a variant of Shapelet Transforms to build logical predicates using shapelets. Our proposed model achieves comparable performance with state-of-the-art deep learning models while additionally providing interpretable classifiers for various benchmark datasets. We further show that our models improve on quantitative shapelet quality and interpretability metrics over existing shapelet-learning formulations. Finally, we show that our models can integrate additional advanced architectures and be applied to real-world tasks beyond standard benchmarks such as the MIMIC-III and time series extrinsic regression datasets.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Jonathan Y. Zhou, Yao Xie

In the wild, we often encounter collections of sequential data such as electrocardiograms, motion capture, genomes, and natural language, and sequences may be multichannel or symbolic with nonlinear dynamics. We introduce a method to learn low-dimensional representations of nonlinear sequence and time-series data without supervision which has provable recovery guarantees. The learned representation can be used for downstream machine-learning tasks such as clustering and classification. The method assumes that the observed sequences arise from a common domain, with each sequence following its own autoregressive model, and these models are related through low-rank regularization. We cast the problem as a convex matrix parameter recovery problem using monotone variational inequalities (VIs) and encode the common domain assumption via low-rank constraint across the learned representations, which can learn a subspace approximately spanning the entire domain as well as faithful representations for the dynamics of each individual sequence incorporating the domain information in totality. We show the competitive performance of our method on real-world time-series data with baselines and demonstrate its effectiveness for symbolic text modeling and RNA sequence clustering.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Kun Gao, Katsumi Inoue, Yongzhi Cao, Hanpin Wang, Yang Feng

Rule learning-based models are widely used in highly interpretable scenarios due to their transparent structures. Inductive logic programming (ILP), a form of machine learning, induces rules from facts while maintaining interpretability. Differentiable ILP models enhance this process by leveraging neural networks to improve robustness and scalability. However, most differentiable ILP methods rely on symbolic datasets, facing challenges when learning directly from raw data. Specifically, they struggle with explicit label leakage: The inability to map continuous inputs to symbolic variables without explicit supervision of input feature labels. In this work, we address this issue by integrating a self-supervised differentiable clustering model with a novel differentiable ILP model, enabling rule learning from raw data without explicit label leakage. The learned rules effectively describe raw data through its features. We demonstrate that our method intuitively and precisely learns generalized rules from time series and image data.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Oğuz Kaan Yüksel, Mathieu Even, Nicolas Flammarion

This paper addresses the problem of long-context linear system identification, where the state $x_t$ of the system at time $t$ depends linearly on previous states $x_s$ over a fixed context window of length $p$. We establish a sample complexity bound that matches the _i.i.d._ parametric rate, up to logarithmic factors for a broad class of systems, extending previous work that considered only first-order dependencies. Our findings reveal a ``learning-without-mixing'' phenomenon, indicating that learning long-context linear autoregressive models is not hindered by slow mixing properties potentially associated with extended context windows. Additionally, we extend these results to _(i)_ shared low-rank feature representations, where rank-regularized estimators improve rates with respect to dimensionality, and _(ii)_ misspecified context lengths in strictly stable systems, where shorter contexts offer statistical advantages.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Korbinian Pöppel, Maximilian Beck, Sepp Hochreiter

While Transformers and other sequence-parallelizable neural network architectures seem like the current state of the art in sequence modeling, they specifically lack state-tracking capabilities. These are important for time-series tasks and logical reasoning. Traditional RNNs like LSTMs and GRUs, as well as modern variants like sLSTM do have these capabilities at the cost of strictly sequential processing. While this is often seen as a strong limitation, we show how fast these networks can get with our hardware-optimization FlashRNN in Triton and CUDA, optimizing kernels to the register level on modern GPUs. We extend traditional RNNs with a parallelization variant that processes multiple RNNs of smaller hidden state in parallel, similar to the head-wise processing in Transformers. To enable flexibility on different GPU variants, we introduce a new optimization framework for hardware-internal cache sizes, memory and compute handling. It models the hardware in a setting using polyhedral-like constraints, including the notion of divisibility. This speeds up the solution process in our ConstrINT library for general integer constraint satisfaction problems (integer CSPs).We show that our kernels can achieve 50x speed-ups over a vanilla PyTorch implementation and allow 40x larger hidden sizes compared to our Triton implementation. We have open-sourced our kernels and the optimization library to boost research in the direction of state-tracking enabled RNNs and sequence modeling here: https://github.com/NX-AI/flashrnn

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Wei Chen, Yuxuan Liang

The widespread deployment of sensing devices leads to a surge in data for spatio-temporal forecasting applications such as traffic flow, air quality, and wind energy. Although spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have achieved success in modeling various static spatio-temporal forecasting scenarios, real-world spatio-temporal data are typically received in a streaming manner, and the network continuously expands with the installation of new sensors. Thus, spatio-temporal forecasting in streaming scenarios faces dual challenges: the inefficiency of retraining models over newly-arrived data and the detrimental effects of catastrophic forgetting over long-term history. To address these challenges, we propose a novel prompt tuning-based continuous forecasting method, **_EAC_**, following two fundamental tuning principles guided by empirical and theoretical analysis: _**e**xpand **a**nd **c**ompress_, which effectively resolve the aforementioned problems with lightweight tuning parameters. Specifically, we integrate the base STGNN with a continuous prompt pool, utilizing stored prompts (\ie, few learnable parameters) in memory, and jointly optimize them with the base STGNN. This method ensures that the model sequentially learns from the spatio-temporal data stream to accomplish tasks for corresponding periods. Extensive experimental results on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the multi-faceted superiority of **_EAC_** over the state-of-the-art baselines, including effectiveness, efficiency, universality, etc.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Yunju Cho, Jay-Yoon Lee

Long-term time series forecasting poses significant challenges due to the complex dynamics and temporal variations, particularly when dealing with unseen patterns and data scarcity. Traditional supervised learning approaches, which rely on cleaned and labeled data, struggle to capture these unseen characteristics, limiting their effectiveness in real-world applications. In this study, we propose a semi-supervised approach that leverages multi-view setting on augmented data without requiring explicit future values as labels to address these limitations. By introducing a consensus promotion framework, our method enhances agreement among multiple single-view models on unseen augmented data. This approach not only improves forecasting accuracy but also mitigates error accumulation in long-horizon predictions. Furthermore, we explore the impact of autoregressive and non-autoregressive decoding schemes on error propagation, demonstrating the robustness of our model in extending prediction horizons. Experimental results show that our proposed method not only surpasses traditional supervised models in accuracy but also exhibits greater robustness when extending the prediction horizon.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Xiaoming Shi, Shiyu Wang, Yuqi Nie, Dianqi Li, Zhou Ye, Qingsong Wen, Ming Jin

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility. Code is available at https://github.com/Time-MoE/Time-MoE

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Julius Aka, Johannes Brunnemann, Jörg Eiden, Arne Speerforck, Lars Mikelsons

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are a powerful framework for learning latent representations of reduced dimensionality, while Neural ODEs excel in learning transient system dynamics. This work combines the strengths of both to generate fast surrogate models with adjustable complexity reacting on time-varying inputs signals. By leveraging the VAE’s dimensionality reduction using a non-hierarchical prior, our method adaptively assigns stochastic noise, naturally complementing known NeuralODE training enhancements and enabling probabilistictime series modeling. We show that standard Latent ODEs struggle with dimensionality reduction in systems with time-varying inputs. Our approach mitigates this by continuously propagating variational parameters through time, establishing fixed information channels in latent space. This results in a flexible and robust method that can learn different system complexities, e.g. deep neural networks orlinear matrices. Hereby, it enables efficient approximation of the Koopman operator without the need for predefining its dimensionality. As our method balances dimensionality reduction and reconstruction accuracy, we call it Balanced Neural ODE (B-NODE). We demonstrate the effectiveness of this methods on several academic and real-world test cases, e.g. a power plant or MuJoCo data.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

T. Konstantin Rusch, Daniela Rus

We propose Linear Oscillatory State-Space models (LinOSS) for efficiently learning on long sequences. Inspired by cortical dynamics of biological neural networks, we base our proposed LinOSS model on a system of forced harmonic oscillators. A stable discretization, integrated over time using fast associative parallel scans, yields the proposed state-space model. We prove that LinOSS produces stable dynamics only requiring nonnegative diagonal state matrix. This is in stark contrast to many previous state-space models relying heavily on restrictive parameterizations. Moreover, we rigorously show that LinOSS is universal, i.e., it can approximate any continuous and causal operator mapping between time-varying functions, to desired accuracy. In addition, we show that an implicit-explicit discretization of LinOSS perfectly conserves the symmetry of time reversibility of the underlying dynamics. Together, these properties enable efficient modeling of long-range interactions, while ensuring stable and accurate long-horizon forecasting. Finally, our empirical results, spanning a wide range of time-series tasks from mid-range to very long-range classification and regression, as well as long-horizon forecasting, demonstrate that our proposed LinOSS model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models. Notably, LinOSS outperforms Mamba and LRU by nearly 2x on a sequence modeling task with sequences of length 50k.