论文检索

Optimization/Zero-order and Black-box Optimization

Shuang Li, Ke Li, Wei Li

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful method for tackling expensive black-box optimization problems. As a sequential model-based optimization strategy, BO iteratively explores promising solutions until a predetermined budget, either iterations or time, is exhausted. The decision on when to terminate BO significantly influences both the quality of solutions and its computational efficiency. In this paper, we propose a simple, yet theoretically grounded, two-step method for automatically terminating BO. Our core concept is to proactively identify if the search is within a convex region by examining previously observed samples. BO is halted once the local regret within this convex region falls below a predetermined threshold. To enhance numerical stability, we propose an approximation method for calculating the termination indicator by solving a bilevel optimization problem. We conduct extensive empirical studies on diverse benchmark problems, including synthetic functions, reinforcement learning, and hyperparameter optimization. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method saves up to $\approx 80\%$ computational budget yet is with an order of magnitude smaller performance degradation, comparing against the other peer methods. In addition, our proposed termination method is robust in terms of the setting of its termination criterion.

Probabilistic Methods

Sebastian Salazar

Decision trees are a well-established tool in machine learning for classification and regression tasks. In this paper, we introduce a novel non-parametric Bayesian model that uses variational inference to approximate a posterior distribution over the space of stochastic decision trees. We evaluate the model's performance on 18 datasets and demonstrate its competitiveness with other state-of-the-art methods in regression tasks. We also explore its application to causal inference problems. We provide a fully vectorized implementation of our algorithm in PyTorch.

Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders

Paribesh Regmi, Rui Li

The neural network structures of generative models and their corresponding inference models paired in variational autoencoders (VAEs) play a critical role in the models' generative performance. However, powerful VAE network structures are hand-crafted and fixed prior to training, resulting in a one-size-fits-all approach that requires heavy computation to tune for given data. Moreover, existing VAE regularization methods largely overlook the importance of network structures and fail to prevent overfitting in deep VAE models with cascades of hidden layers. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian inference framework that automatically adapts VAE network structures to data and prevent overfitting as they grow deeper. We model the number of hidden layers with a beta process to infer the most plausible encoding/decoding network depths warranted by data and perform layer-wise dropout regularization with a conjugate Bernoulli process. We develop a scalable estimator that performs joint inference on both VAE network structures and latent variables. Our experiments show that the inference framework effectively prevents overfitting in both shallow and deep VAE models, yielding state-of-the-art performance. We demonstrate that our framework is compatible with different types of VAE backbone networks and can be applied to various VAE variants, further improving their performance.

Probabilistic Methods/Gaussian Processes

Hideaki Kim

Survival or time-to-event data with time-varying covariates are common in practice, and exploring the non-stationarity in covariates is essential to accurately analyzing the nonlinear dependence of time-to-event outcomes on covariates. Traditional survival analysis methods such as Cox proportional hazards model have been extended to address the time-varying covariates through a counting process formulation, although sophisticated machine learning methods that can accommodate time-varying covariates have been limited. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric Bayesian survival model to analyze the nonlinear dependence of time-to-event outcomes on time-varying covariates. We focus on a computationally feasible Cox process called permanental process, which assumes the square root of hazard function to be generated from a Gaussian process, and tailor it for survival data with time-varying covariates. We verify that the proposed model holds with the representer theorem, a beneficial property for functional analysis, which offers us a fast Bayesian estimation algorithm that scales linearly with the number of observed events without relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo computation. We evaluate our algorithm on synthetic and real-world data, and show that it achieves comparable predictive accuracy while being tens to hundreds of times faster than state-of-the-art methods.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Causality

Saptarshi Roy, Raymond K. W. Wong, Yang Ni

Discovering causal relationship using multivariate functional data has received a significant amount of attention very recently. In this article, we introduce a functional linear structural equation model for causal structure learning when the underlying graph involving the multivariate functions may have cycles. To enhance interpretability, our model involves a low-dimensional causal embedded space such that all the relevant causal information in the multivariate functional data is preserved in this lower-dimensional subspace. We prove that the proposed model is causally identifiable under standard assumptions that are often made in the causal discovery literature. To carry out inference of our model, we develop a fully Bayesian framework with suitable prior specifications and uncertainty quantification through posterior summaries. We illustrate the superior performance of our method over existing methods in terms of causal graph estimation through extensive simulation studies. We also demonstrate the proposed method using a brain EEG dataset.

Optimization/Zero-order and Black-box Optimization

Carl Hvarfner, Erik Hellsten, Frank Hutter, Luigi Nardi

Gaussian processes are the model of choice in Bayesian optimization and active learning. Yet, they are highly dependent on cleverly chosen hyperparameters to reach their full potential, and little effort is devoted to finding good hyperparameters in the literature. We demonstrate the impact of selecting good hyperparameters for GPs and present two acquisition functions that explicitly prioritize hyperparameter learning. Statistical distance-based Active Learning (SAL) considers the average disagreement between samples from the posterior, as measured by a statistical distance. SAL outperforms the state-of-the-art in Bayesian active learning on several test functions. We then introduce Self-Correcting Bayesian Optimization (SCoreBO), which extends SAL to perform Bayesian optimization and active learning simultaneously. SCoreBO learns the model hyperparameters at improved rates compared to vanilla BO, while outperforming the latest Bayesian optimization methods on traditional benchmarks. Moreover, we demonstrate the importance of self-correction on atypical Bayesian optimization tasks.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Lorenzo Baldassari, Ali Siahkoohi, Josselin Garnier, Knut Solna, Maarten V. de Hoop

Since their initial introduction, score-based diffusion models (SDMs) have been successfully applied to solve a variety of linear inverse problems in finite-dimensional vector spaces due to their ability to efficiently approximate the posterior distribution. However, using SDMs for inverse problems in infinite-dimensional function spaces has only been addressed recently, primarily through methods that learn the unconditional score. While this approach is advantageous for some inverse problems, it is mostly heuristic and involves numerous computationally costly forward operator evaluations during posterior sampling. To address these limitations, we propose a theoretically grounded method for sampling from the posterior of infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems based on amortized conditional SDMs. In particular, we prove that one of the most successful approaches for estimating the conditional score in finite dimensions—the conditional denoising estimator—can also be applied in infinite dimensions. A significant part of our analysis is dedicated to demonstrating that extending infinite-dimensional SDMs to the conditional setting requires careful consideration, as the conditional score typically blows up for small times, contrarily to the unconditional score. We conclude by presenting stylized and large-scale numerical examples that validate our approach, offer additional insights, and demonstrate that our method enables large-scale, discretization-invariant Bayesian inference.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Zhe Zeng, Guy Van den Broeck

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a formalism to quantify and calibrate uncertainty in deep learning. Current inference approaches for BNNs often resort to few-sample estimation for scalability, which can harm predictive performance, while its alternatives tend to be computationally prohibitively expensive. We tackle this challenge by revealing a previously unseen connection between inference on BNNs and volume computation problems. With this observation, we introduce a novel collapsed inference scheme that performs Bayesian model averaging using collapsed samples. It improves over a Monte-Carlo sample by limiting sampling to a subset of the network weights while pairing it with some closed-form conditional distribution over the rest. A collapsed sample represents uncountably many models drawn from the approximate posterior and thus yields higher sample efficiency. Further, we show that the marginalization of a collapsed sample can be solved analytically and efficiently despite the non-linearity of neural networks by leveraging existing volume computation solvers. Our proposed use of collapsed samples achieves a balance between scalability and accuracy. On various regression and classification tasks, our collapsed Bayesian deep learning approach demonstrates significant improvements over existing methods and sets a new state of the art in terms of uncertainty estimation as well as predictive performance.

Optimization

Yueming LYU

Black-box optimization has gained great attention for its success in recent applications. However, scaling up to high-dimensional problems with good query efficiency remains challenging. This paper proposes a novel Rank-1 Lattice Targeted Sampling (RLTS) technique to address this issue. Our RLTS benefits from random rank-1 lattice Quasi-Monte Carlo, which enables us to perform fast local exact Gaussian processes (GP) training and inference with $O(n \log n)$ complexity w.r.t. $n$ batch samples. Furthermore, we developed a fast coordinate searching method with $O(n \log n)$ time complexity for fast targeted sampling. The fast computation enables us to plug our RLTS into the sampling phase of stochastic optimization methods. This improves the query efficiency while scaling up to higher dimensional problems than Bayesian optimization. Moreover, to construct rank-1 lattices efficiently, we proposed a closed-form construction. Extensive experiments on challenging benchmark test functions and black-box prompt fine-tuning for large language models demonstrate the query efficiency of our RLTS technique.

Social Aspects/Fairness, Equity, Justice and Safety

Rachael Sim, Yehong Zhang, Nghia Hoang, Xinyi Xu, Bryan Kian Hsiang Low, Patrick Jaillet

Collaborative machine learning involves training models on data from multiple parties but must incentivize their participation. Existing data valuation methods fairly value and reward each party based on shared data or model parameters but neglect the privacy risks involved. To address this, we introduce _differential privacy_ (DP) as an incentive. Each party can select its required DP guarantee and perturb its _sufficient statistic_ (SS) accordingly. The mediator values the perturbed SS by the Bayesian surprise it elicits about the model parameters. As our valuation function enforces a _privacy-valuation trade-off_, parties are deterred from selecting excessive DP guarantees that reduce the utility of the grand coalition's model. Finally, the mediator rewards each party with different posterior samples of the model parameters. Such rewards still satisfy existing incentives like fairness but additionally preserve DP and a high similarity to the grand coalition's posterior. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Longlin Yu, Tianyu Xie, Yu Zhu, Tong Yang, Xiangyu Zhang, Cheng Zhang

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) has been introduced to expand the analytical variational families by defining expressive semi-implicit distributions in a hierarchical manner. However, the single-layer architecture commonly used in current SIVI methods can be insufficient when the target posterior has complicated structures. In this paper, we propose hierarchical semi-implicit variational inference, called HSIVI, which generalizes SIVI to allow more expressive multi-layer construction of semi-implicit distributions. By introducing auxiliary distributions that interpolate between a simple base distribution and the target distribution, the conditional layers can be trained by progressively matching these auxiliary distributions one layer after another. Moreover, given pre-trained score networks, HSIVI can be used to accelerate the sampling process of diffusion models with the score matching objective. We show that HSIVI significantly enhances the expressiveness of SIVI on several Bayesian inference problems with complicated target distributions. When used for diffusion model acceleration, we show that HSIVI can produce high quality samples comparable to or better than the existing fast diffusion model based samplers with a small number of function evaluations on various datasets.

Applications/Genetics, Cell Biology, etc

Tianyu Xie, Cheng Zhang

Designing flexible probabilistic models over tree topologies is important for developing efficient phylogenetic inference methods. To do that, previous works often leverage the similarity of tree topologies via hand-engineered heuristic features which would require domain expertise and may suffer from limited approximation capability. In this paper, we propose a deep autoregressive model for phylogenetic inference based on graph neural networks (GNNs), called ARTree. By decomposing a tree topology into a sequence of leaf node addition operations and modeling the involved conditional distributions based on learnable topological features via GNNs, ARTree can provide a rich family of distributions over tree topologies that have simple sampling algorithms, without using heuristic features. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method on a benchmark of challenging real data tree topology density estimation and variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference problems.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Zhijie Deng, Peng Cui, Jun Zhu

Mislabeled, duplicated, or biased data in real-world scenarios can lead to prolonged training and even hinder model convergence. Traditional solutions prioritizing easy or hard samples lack the flexibility to handle such a variety simultaneously. Recent work has proposed a more reasonable data selection principle by examining the data's impact on the model's generalization loss. However, its practical adoption relies on less principled approximations and additional holdout data. This work solves these problems by leveraging a lightweight Bayesian treatment and incorporating off-the-shelf zero-shot predictors built on large-scale pre-trained models. The resulting algorithm is efficient and easy to implement. We perform extensive empirical studies on challenging benchmarks with considerable data noise and imbalance in the online batch selection scenario, and observe superior training efficiency over competitive baselines. Notably, on the challenging WebVision benchmark, our method can achieve similar predictive performance with significantly fewer training iterations than leading data selection methods.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Van-Anh Nguyen, Tung-Long Vuong, Hoang Phan, Thanh-Toan Do, Dinh Phung, Trung Le

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation for deep learning models by imposing a prior distribution over model parameters and inferring a posterior distribution based on observed data. The model sampled from the posterior distribution can be used for providing ensemble predictions and quantifying prediction uncertainty. It is well-known that deep learning models with lower sharpness have better generalization ability. However, existing posterior inferences are not aware of sharpness/flatness in terms of formulation, possibly leading to high sharpness for the models sampled from them. In this paper, we develop theories, the Bayesian setting, and the variational inference approach for the sharpness-aware posterior. Specifically, the models sampled from our sharpness-aware posterior, and the optimal approximate posterior estimating this sharpness-aware posterior, have better flatness, hence possibly possessing higher generalization ability. We conduct experiments by leveraging the sharpness-aware posterior with state-of-the-art Bayesian Neural Networks, showing that the flat-seeking counterparts outperform their baselines in all metrics of interest.

Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods

Zerui Tao, Toshihisa Tanaka, Qibin Zhao

Tensor decompositions (TDs) serve as a powerful tool for analyzing multiway data. Traditional TDs incorporate prior knowledge about the data into the model, such as a directed generative process from latent factors to observations. In practice, selecting proper structural or distributional assumptions beforehand is crucial for obtaining a promising TD representation. However, since such prior knowledge is typically unavailable in real-world applications, choosing an appropriate TD model can be challenging. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a flexible TD framework that discards the structural and distributional assumptions, in order to learn as much information from the data. Specifically, we construct a TD model that captures the joint probability of the data and latent tensor factors through a deep energy-based model (EBM). Neural networks are then employed to parameterize the joint energy function of tensor factors and tensor entries. The flexibility of EBM and neural networks enables the learning of underlying structures and distributions. In addition, by designing the energy function, our model unifies the learning process of different types of tensors, such as static tensors and dynamic tensors with time stamps. The resulting model presents a doubly intractable nature due to the presence of latent tensor factors and the unnormalized probability function. To efficiently train the model, we derive a variational upper bound of the conditional noise-contrastive estimation objective that learns the unnormalized joint probability by distinguishing data from conditional noises. We show advantages of our model on both synthetic and several real-world datasets.

Optimization/Bilevel optimization

Zhenqian Shen, Hansi Yang, Yong Li, James Kwok, Quanming Yao

As hyper-parameters are ubiquitous and can significantly affect the model performance, hyper-parameter optimization is extremely important in machine learning. In this paper, we consider a sub-class of hyper-parameter optimization problems, where the hyper-gradients are not available. Such problems frequently appear when the performance metric is non-differentiable or the hyper-parameter is not continuous. However, existing algorithms, like Bayesian optimization and reinforcement learning, often get trapped in local optimals with poor performance. To address the above limitations, we propose to use cubic regularization to accelerate convergence and avoid saddle points. First, we adopt stochastic relaxation, which allows obtaining gradient and Hessian information without hyper-gradients. Then, we exploit the rich curvature information by cubic regularization. Theoretically, we prove that the proposed method can converge to approximate second-order stationary points, and the convergence is also guaranteed when the lower-level problem is inexactly solved. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Shivani Bathla, Vinita Vasudevan

Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.

Applications/Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

David Liu, Mate Lengyel

Neural spiking activity is generally variable, non-stationary, and exhibits complex dependencies on covariates, such as sensory input or behavior. These dependencies have been proposed to be signatures of specific computations, and so characterizing them with quantitative rigor is critical for understanding neural computations. Approaches based on point processes provide a principled statistical framework for modeling neural spiking activity. However, currently, they only allow the instantaneous mean, but not the instantaneous variability, of responses to depend on covariates. To resolve this limitation, we propose a scalable Bayesian approach generalizing modulated renewal processes using sparse variational Gaussian processes. We leverage pathwise conditioning for computing nonparametric priors over conditional interspike interval distributions and rely on automatic relevance determination to detect lagging interspike interval dependencies beyond renewal order. After systematically validating our method on synthetic data, we apply it to two foundational datasets of animal navigation: head direction cells in freely moving mice and hippocampal place cells in rats running along a linear track. Our model exhibits competitive or better predictive power compared to state-of-the-art baselines, and outperforms them in terms of capturing interspike interval statistics. These results confirm the importance of modeling covariate-dependent spiking variability, and further analyses of our fitted models reveal rich patterns of variability modulation beyond the temporal resolution of flexible count-based approaches.

Probabilistic Methods/Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Weijian Luo, Boya Zhang, Zhihua Zhang

Efficiently sampling from un-normalized target distributions is a fundamental problem in scientific computing and machine learning. Traditional approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) guarantee asymptotically unbiased samples from such distributions but suffer from computational inefficiency, particularly when dealing with high-dimensional targets, as they require numerous iterations to generate a batch of samples. In this paper, we introduce an efficient and scalable neural implicit sampler that overcomes these limitations. The implicit sampler can generate large batches of samples with low computational costs by leveraging a neural transformation that directly maps easily sampled latent vectors to target samples without the need for iterative procedures. To train the neural implicit samplers, we introduce two novel methods: the KL training method and the Fisher training method. The former method minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence, while the latter minimizes the Fisher divergence between the sampler and the target distributions. By employing the two training methods, we effectively optimize the neural implicit samplers to learn and generate from the desired target distribution. To demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of our proposed samplers, we evaluate them on three sampling benchmarks with different scales. These benchmarks include sampling from 2D targets, Bayesian inference, and sampling from high-dimensional energy-based models (EBMs). Notably, in the experiment involving high-dimensional EBMs, our sampler produces samples that are comparable to those generated by MCMC-based methods while being more than 100 times more efficient, showcasing the efficiency of our neural sampler. Besides the theoretical contributions and strong empirical performances, the proposed neural samplers and corresponding training methods will shed light on further research on developing efficient samplers for various applications beyond the ones explored in this study.

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Enrico Giudice, Jack Kuipers, Giusi Moffa

Gaussian Process Networks (GPNs) are a class of directed graphical models which employ Gaussian processes as priors for the conditional expectation of each variable given its parents in the network. The model allows the description of continuous joint distributions in a compact but flexible manner with minimal parametric assumptions on the dependencies between variables. Bayesian structure learning of GPNs requires computing the posterior over graphs of the network and is computationally infeasible even in low dimensions. This work implements Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of network structures. As such, the approach follows the Bayesian paradigm, comparing models via their marginal likelihood and computing the posterior probability of the GPN features. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in recovering the graphical structure of the network and provides an accurate approximation of its posterior distribution.