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Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Noémie Jaquier, Leonel Rozo, Miguel González-Duque, Slava Borovitskiy, Tamim Asfour

Human motion taxonomies serve as high-level hierarchical abstractions that classify how humans move and interact with their environment. They have proven useful to analyse grasps, manipulation skills, and whole-body support poses. Despite substantial efforts devoted to design their hierarchy and underlying categories, their use remains limited. This may be attributed to the lack of computational models that fill the gap between the discrete hierarchical structure of the taxonomy and the high-dimensional heterogeneous data associated to its categories. To overcome this problem, we propose to model taxonomy data via hyperbolic embeddings that capture the associated hierarchical structure. We achieve this by formulating a novel Gaussian process hyperbolic latent variable model that incorporates the taxonomy structure through graph-based priors on the latent space and distance-preserving back constraints. We validate our model on three different human motion taxonomies to learn hyperbolic embeddings that faithfully preserve the original graph structure. We show that our model properly encodes unseen data from existing or new taxonomy categories, and outperforms its Euclidean and VAE-based counterparts. Finally, through proof-of-concept experiments, we show that our model may be used to generate realistic trajectories between the learned embeddings.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Hao Wang, Kaifeng Yang, Michael Affenzeller

Hypervolume improvement (HVI) is commonly employed in multi-objective Bayesian optimization algorithms to define acquisition functions due to its Pareto-compliant property. Rather than focusing on specific statistical moments of HVI, this work aims to provide the exact expression of HVI's probability distribution for bi-objective problems. Considering a bi-variate Gaussian random variable resulting from Gaussian process (GP) modeling, we derive the probability distribution of its hypervolume improvement via a cell partition-based method. Our exact expression is superior in numerical accuracy and computation efficiency compared to the Monte Carlo approximation of HVI's distribution. Utilizing this distribution, we propose a novel acquisition function - $\varepsilon$-probability of hypervolume improvement ($\varepsilon$-PoHVI). Experimentally, we show that on many widely-applied bi-objective test problems, $\varepsilon$-PoHVI significantly outperforms other related acquisition functions, e.g., $\varepsilon$-PoI, and expected hypervolume improvement, when the GP model exhibits a large the prediction uncertainty.

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Alan Matias, César Lincoln Mattos, Joao Paulo Gomes, Diego Mesquita

Deep kernel learning (DKL) marries the uncertainty quantification of Gaussian processes (GPs) and the representational power of deep neural networks. However, training DKL is challenging and often leads to overfitting. Most notably, DKL often learns “non-local” kernels — incurring spurious correlations. To remedy this issue, we propose using amortized inducing points and a parameter-sharing scheme, which ties together the amortization and DKL networks. This design imposes an explicit dependency between the ELBO’s model fit and capacity terms. In turn, this prevents the former from dominating the optimization procedure and incurring the aforementioned spurious correlations. Extensive experiments show that our resulting method, *amortized varitional* DKL (AVDKL), i) consistently outperforms DKL and standard GPs for tabular data; ii) achieves significantly higher accuracy than DKL in node classification tasks; and iii) leads to substantially better accuracy and negative log-likelihood than DKL on CIFAR100.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Michael Komodromos, Marina Evangelou, Sarah Filippi

Variational logistic regression is a popular method for approximate Bayesian inference seeing wide-spread use in many areas of machine learning including: Bayesian optimization, reinforcement learning and multi-instance learning to name a few. However, due to the intractability of the Evidence Lower Bound, authors have turned to the use of Monte Carlo, quadrature or bounds to perform inference, methods which are costly or give poor approximations to the true posterior. In this paper we introduce a new bound for the expectation of softplus function and subsequently show how this can be applied to variational logistic regression and Gaussian process classification. Unlike other bounds, our proposal does not rely on extending the variational family, or introducing additional parameters to ensure the bound is tight. In fact, we show that this bound is tighter than the state-of-the-art, and that the resulting variational posterior achieves state-of-the-art performance, whilst being significantly faster to compute than Monte-Carlo methods.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Brooks(Ruijia) Niu, Dongxia Wu, Kai Kim, Yian Ma, Duncan Watson-Parris, Rose Yu

Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling aims to learn an accurate surrogate at the highest fidelity level by combining data from multiple sources. Traditional methods relying on Gaussian processes can hardly scale to high-dimensional data. Deep learning approaches utilize neural network based encoders and decoders to improve scalability. These approaches share encoded representations across fidelities without including corresponding decoder parameters. This hinders inference performance, especially in out-of-distribution scenarios when the highest fidelity data has limited domain coverage. To address these limitations, we propose Multi-fidelity Residual Neural Processes (MFRNP), a novel multi-fidelity surrogate modeling framework. MFRNP explicitly models the residual between the aggregated output from lower fidelities and ground truth at the highest fidelity. The aggregation introduces decoders into the information sharing step and optimizes lower fidelity decoders to accurately capture both in-fidelity and cross-fidelity information. We show that MFRNP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art in learning partial differential equations and a real-world climate modeling task. Our code is published at: https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/MFRNP

Probabilistic Methods · Gaussian Processes

Nicolas Alder, Ralf Herbrich

The widespread use of artificial intelligence requires finding energy-efficient paradigms for the field. We propose to reduce the energy consumption of Gaussian process regression using low-precision floating-point representations. We explore how low-precision representations impact the results of Gaussian process regression and how data set properties, implementation approach, model performance, and energy consumption interact. Our findings show that a well-conditioned kernel matrix allows reducing the energy consumption by up to 89.01% for 98.08% of arithmetic operations with little to no impact on model performance. Our findings are relevant whenever one needs to invert a symmetric full-rank matrix.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Louis Grenioux, Maxence Noble, Marylou Gabrié, Alain Oliviero Durmus

Building upon score-based learning, new interest in stochastic localization techniques has recently emerged. In these models, one seeks to noise a sample from the data distribution through a stochastic process, called observation process, and progressively learns a denoiser associated to this dynamics. Apart from specific applications, the use of stochastic localization for the problem of sampling from an unnormalized target density has not been explored extensively. This work contributes to fill this gap. We consider a general stochastic localization framework and introduce an explicit class of observation processes, associated with flexible denoising schedules. We provide a complete methodology, *Stochastic Localization via Iterative Posterior Sampling* (**SLIPS**), to obtain approximate samples of these dynamics, and as a by-product, samples from the target distribution. Our scheme is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation of the denoiser and comes with detailed practical guidelines. We illustrate the benefits and applicability of **SLIPS** on several benchmarks of multi-modal distributions, including Gaussian mixtures in increasing dimensions, Bayesian logistic regression and a high-dimensional field system from statistical-mechanics.

Applications · Time Series

Shikai Fang, Qingsong Wen, Yingtao Luo, Shandian Zhe, Liang Sun

In real-world scenarios such as traffic and energy management, we frequently encounter large volumes of time-series data characterized by missing values, noise, and irregular sampling patterns. While numerous imputation methods have been proposed, the majority tend to operate within a local horizon, which involves dividing long sequences into batches of fixed-length segments for model training. This local horizon often leads to the overlooking of global trends and periodic patterns. More importantly, most methods assume the observations are sampled at regular timestamps, and fail to handle complex irregular sampled time series in various applications. Additionally, most existing methods are learned in an offline manner. Thus, it is not suitable for applications with rapidly arriving streaming data. To address these challenges, we propose BayOTIDE: Bayesian Online Multivariate Time series Imputation with functional decomposition. Our method conceptualizes multivariate time series as the weighted combination of groups of low-rank temporal factors with different patterns. We employ a suite of Gaussian Processes (GPs),each with a unique kernel, as functional priors to model these factors. For computational efficiency, we further convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE), and developing a scalable algorithm for online inference. The proposed method can not only handle imputation over arbitrary timestamps, but also offer uncertainty quantification and interpretability for the downstream application. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets. We release the code at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/BayOTIDE.

Deep Learning

Herilalaina Rakotoarison, Steven Adriaensen, Neeratyoy Mallik, Samir Garibov, Edward Bergman, Frank Hutter

With the increasing computational costs associated with deep learning, automated hyperparameter optimization methods, strongly relying on black-box Bayesian optimization (BO), face limitations. Freeze-thaw BO offers a promising grey-box alternative, strategically allocating scarce resources incrementally to different configurations. However, the frequent surrogate model updates inherent to this approach pose challenges for existing methods, requiring retraining or fine-tuning their neural network surrogates online, introducing overhead, instability, and hyper-hyperparameters. In this work, we propose FT-PFN, a novel surrogate for Freeze-thaw style BO. FT-PFN is a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that leverages the transformers' in-context learning ability to efficiently and reliably do Bayesian learning curve extrapolation in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis across three benchmark suites shows that the predictions made by FT-PFN are more accurate and 10-100 times faster than those of the deep Gaussian process and deep ensemble surrogates used in previous work. Furthermore, we show that, when combined with our novel acquisition mechanism (MFPI-random), the resulting in-context freeze-thaw BO method (ifBO), yields new state-of-the-art performance in the same three families of deep learning HPO benchmarks considered in prior work.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Albert Tseng, Jerry Chee, Qingyao Sun, Volodymyr Kuleshov, Chris De Sa

Post-training quantization (PTQ) reduces the memory footprint of LLMs by quantizing their weights to low-precision. In this work, we introduce QuIP#, a weight-only PTQ method that achieves state-of-the-art results in extreme compression regimes ($\le$ 4 bits per weight) using three novel techniques. First, QuIP# improves QuIP's (Chee et al., 2023) incoherence processing by using the randomized Hadamard transform, which is faster and has better theoretical properties. Second, QuIP# uses vector quantization to take advantage of the ball-shaped sub-Gaussian distribution that incoherent weights possess: specifically, we introduce a set of hardware-efficient codebooks based on the highly symmetric $E_8$ lattice, which achieves the optimal 8-dimension unit ball packing. Third, QuIP# uses fine-tuning to improve fidelity to the original model. Our experiments show that QuIP# outperforms existing PTQ methods, enables new behaviors in PTQ scaling, and supports fast inference. Our code can be found at https://github.com/Cornell-RelaxML/quip-sharp.

Theory · Learning Theory

Ingvar Ziemann, Stephen Tu, George J. Pappas, Nikolai Matni

In this work, we study statistical learning with dependent data and square loss in a hypothesis class with tail decay in Orlicz space: $\mathscr{F}\subset L_{\Psi_p}$. Our inquiry is motivated by the search for a sharp noise interaction term, or variance proxy, in learning with dependent (e.g. $\beta$-mixing) data. Typical non-asymptotic results exhibit variance proxies that are deflated *multiplicatively* in the mixing time of the underlying covariates process. We show that whenever the topologies of $L^2$ and $\Psi_p$ are comparable on our hypothesis class $\mathscr{F}$, the empirical risk minimizer achieves a rate that only depends on the complexity of the class and second order statistics in its leading term. We refer to this as a *near mixing-free rate*, since direct dependence on mixing is relegated to an additive higher order term. Our approach, reliant on mixed tail generic chaining, allows us to obtain sharp, instance-optimal rates. Examples that satisfy our framework include for instance sub-Gaussian linear regression and bounded smoothness classes.

Reinforcement Learning

Vivienne Wang, Tinghuai Wang, wenyan yang, Joni-kristian Kamarainen, Joni Pajarinen

In goal-conditioned hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL), a high-level policy specifies a subgoal for the low-level policy to reach. Effective HRL hinges on a suitable subgoal representation function, abstracting state space into latent subgoal space and inducing varied low-level behaviors. Existing methods adopt a subgoal representation that provides a deterministic mapping from state space to latent subgoal space. Instead, this paper utilizes Gaussian Processes (GPs) for the first probabilistic subgoal representation. Our method employs a GP prior on the latent subgoal space to learn a posterior distribution over the subgoal representation functions while exploiting the long-range correlation in the state space through learnable kernels. This enables an adaptive memory that integrates long-range subgoal information from prior planning steps allowing to cope with stochastic uncertainties. Furthermore, we propose a novel learning objective to facilitate the simultaneous learning of probabilistic subgoal representations and policies within a unified framework. In experiments, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in standard benchmarks but also in environments with stochastic elements and under diverse reward conditions. Additionally, our model shows promising capabilities in transferring low-level policies across different tasks.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Yilun Xu, Gabriele Corso, Tommi Jaakkola, Arash Vahdat, Karsten Kreis

Diffusion models (DMs) have revolutionized generative learning. They utilize a diffusion process to encode data into a simple Gaussian distribution. However, encoding a complex, potentially multimodal data distribution into a single *continuous* Gaussian distribution arguably represents an unnecessarily challenging learning problem. We propose ***Dis**crete-**Co**ntinuous Latent Variable **Diff**usion Models (DisCo-Diff)* to simplify this task by introducing complementary *discrete* latent variables. We augment DMs with learnable discrete latents, inferred with an encoder, and train DM and encoder end-to-end. DisCo-Diff does not rely on pre-trained networks, making the framework universally applicable. The discrete latents significantly simplify learning the DM's complex noise-to-data mapping by reducing the curvature of the DM's generative ODE. An additional autoregressive transformer models the distribution of the discrete latents, a simple step because DisCo-Diff requires only few discrete variables with small codebooks. We validate DisCo-Diff on toy data, several image synthesis tasks as well as molecular docking, and find that introducing discrete latents consistently improves model performance. For example, DisCo-Diff achieves state-of-the-art FID scores on class-conditioned ImageNet-64/128 datasets with ODE sampler.

Applications · Robotics

Runze Liu, Yali Du, Fengshuo Bai, Jiafei Lyu, Xiu Li

In preference-based Reinforcement Learning (RL), obtaining a large number of preference labels are both time-consuming and costly. Furthermore, the queried human preferences cannot be utilized for the new tasks. In this paper, we propose Zero-shot Cross-task Preference Alignment and Robust Reward Learning (PEARL), which learns policies from cross-task preference transfer without any human labels of the target task. Our contributions include two novel components that facilitate the transfer and learning process. The first is Cross-task Preference Alignment (CPA), which transfers the preferences between tasks via optimal transport. The key idea of CPA is to use Gromov-Wasserstein distance to align the trajectories between tasks, and the solved optimal transport matrix serves as the correspondence between trajectories. The target task preferences are computed as the weighted sum of source task preference labels with the correspondence as weights. Moreover, to ensure robust learning from these transferred labels, we introduce Robust Reward Learning (RRL), which considers both reward mean and uncertainty by modeling rewards as Gaussian distributions. Empirical results on robotic manipulation tasks from Meta-World and Robomimic demonstrate that our method is capable of transferring preference labels across tasks accurately and then learns well-behaved policies. Notably, our approach significantly exceeds existing methods when there are few human preferences. The code and videos of our method are available at: https://sites.google.com/view/pearl-preference.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Jiajun Ma, Shuchen Xue, Tianyang Hu, Wenjia Wang, Zhaoqiang Liu, Zhenguo Li, Zhiming Ma, Kenji Kawaguchi

With the incorporation of the UNet architecture, diffusion probabilistic models have become a dominant force in image generation tasks. One key design in UNet is the skip connections between the encoder and decoder blocks. Although skip connections have been shown to improve training stability and model performance, we point out that such shortcuts can be a limiting factor for the complexity of the transformation. As the sampling steps decrease, the generation process and the role of the UNet get closer to the push-forward transformations from Gaussian distribution to the target, posing a challenge for the network's complexity. To address this challenge, we propose Skip-Tuning, a simple yet surprisingly effective training-free tuning method on the skip connections. For instance, our method can achieve 100% FID improvement for pretrained EDM on ImageNet 64 with only 19 NFEs (1.75), breaking the limit of ODE samplers regardless of sampling steps. Surprisingly, the improvement persists when we increase the number of sampling steps and can even surpass the best result from EDM-2 (1.58) with only 39 NFEs (1.57). Comprehensive exploratory experiments are conducted to shed light on the surprising effectiveness of our Skip-Tuning. We observe that while Skip-Tuning increases the score-matching losses in the pixel space, the losses in the feature space are reduced, particularly at intermediate noise levels, which coincide with the most effective range accounting for image quality improvement.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Xiaoqiang Lin, Zhaoxuan Wu, Zhongxiang Dai, Wenyang Hu, Yao Shu, See-Kiong Ng, Patrick Jaillet, Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable instruction-following capabilities and achieved impressive performances in various applications. However, the performances of LLMs depend heavily on the instructions given to them, which are typically manually tuned with substantial human efforts. Recent work has used the query-efficient Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm to automatically optimize the instructions given to black-box LLMs. However, BO usually falls short when optimizing highly sophisticated (e.g., high-dimensional) objective functions, such as the functions mapping an instruction to the performance of an LLM. This is mainly due to the limited expressive power of the Gaussian process (GP) which is used by BO as a surrogate to model the objective function. Meanwhile, it has been repeatedly shown that neural networks (NNs), especially pre-trained transformers, possess strong expressive power and can model highly complex functions. So, we adopt a neural bandit algorithm which replaces the GP in BO by an NN surrogate to optimize instructions for black-box LLMs. More importantly, the neural bandit algorithm allows us to naturally couple the NN surrogate with the hidden representation learned by a pre-trained transformer (i.e., an open-source LLM), which significantly boosts its performance. These motivate us to propose our INSTruction optimization usIng Neural bandits Coupled with Transformers (INSTINCT) algorithm. We perform instruction optimization for ChatGPT and use extensive experiments to show that INSTINCT consistently outperforms baselines in different tasks, e.g., various instruction induction tasks and the task of improving zero-shot chain-of-thought instructions. Our code is available at https://github.com/xqlin98/INSTINCT.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Yirui Liu, Xinghao Qiao, Yulong Pei, Liying Wang

This paper introduces the Deep Functional Factor Model (DF2M), a Bayesian nonparametric model designed for analysis of high-dimensional functional time series. DF2M is built upon the Indian Buffet Process and the multi-task Gaussian Process, incorporating a deep kernel function that captures non-Markovian and nonlinear temporal dynamics. Unlike many black-box deep learning models, DF2M offers an explainable approach to utilizing neural networks by constructing a factor model and integrating deep neural networks within the kernel function. Additionally, we develop a computationally efficient variational inference algorithm to infer DF2M. Empirical results from four real-world datasets demonstrate that DF2M provides better explainability and superior predictive accuracy compared to conventional deep learning models for high-dimensional functional time series.

Applications · Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Yididiya Nadew, Xuhui Fan, Christopher J Quinn

Gaussian process factor analysis (GPFA) is a latent variable modeling technique commonly used to identify smooth, low-dimensional latent trajectories underlying high-dimensional neural recordings. Specifically, researchers model spiking rates as Gaussian observations, resulting in tractable inference. Recently, GPFA has been extended to model spike count data. However, due to the non-conjugacy of the likelihood, the inference becomes intractable. Prior works rely on either black-box inference techniques, numerical integration or polynomial approximations of the likelihood to handle intractability. To overcome this challenge, we propose a conditionally-conjugate Gaussian process factor analysis (ccGPFA) resulting in both analytically and computationally tractable inference for modeling neural activity from spike count data. In particular, we develop a novel data augmentation based method that renders the model conditionally conjugate. Consequently, our model enjoys the advantage of simple closed-form updates using a variational EM algorithm. Furthermore, due to its conditional conjugacy, we show our model can be readily scaled using sparse Gaussian Processes and accelerated inference via natural gradients. To validate our method, we empirically demonstrate its efficacy through experiments.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Lingxiao Yang, Shutong Ding, Yifan Cai, Jingyi Yu, Jingya Wang, Ye Shi

Recent advances in diffusion models attempt to handle conditional generative tasks by utilizing a differentiable loss function for guidance without the need for additional training. While these methods achieved certain success, they often compromise on sample quality and require small guidance step sizes, leading to longer sampling processes. This paper reveals that the fundamental issue lies in the manifold deviation during the sampling process when loss guidance is employed. We theoretically show the existence of manifold deviation by establishing a certain lower bound for the estimation error of the loss guidance. To mitigate this problem, we propose Diffusion with Spherical Gaussian constraint (DSG), drawing inspiration from the concentration phenomenon in high-dimensional Gaussian distributions. DSG effectively constrains the guidance step within the intermediate data manifold through optimization and enables the use of larger guidance steps. Furthermore, we present a closed-form solution for DSG denoising with the Spherical Gaussian constraint. Notably, DSG can seamlessly integrate as a plugin module within existing training-free conditional diffusion methods. Implementing DSG merely involves a few lines of additional code with almost no extra computational overhead, yet it leads to significant performance improvements. Comprehensive experimental results in various conditional generation tasks validate the superiority and adaptability of DSG in terms of both sample quality and time efficiency.

Optimization · Zero-order and Black-box Optimization

Shion Takeno, Yu Inatsu, Masayuki Karasuyama, Ichiro Takeuchi

Among various acquisition functions (AFs) in Bayesian optimization (BO), Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) and Thompson sampling (TS) are well-known options with established theoretical properties regarding Bayesian cumulative regret (BCR). Recently, it has been shown that a randomized variant of GP-UCB achieves a tighter BCR bound compared with GP-UCB, which we call the tighter BCR bound for brevity. Inspired by this study, this paper first shows that TS achieves the tighter BCR bound. On the other hand, GP-UCB and TS often practically suffer from manual hyperparameter tuning and over-exploration issues, respectively. Therefore, we analyze yet another AF called a probability of improvement from the maximum of a sample path (PIMS). We show that PIMS achieves the tighter BCR bound and avoids the hyperparameter tuning, unlike GP-UCB. Furthermore, we demonstrate a wide range of experiments, focusing on the effectiveness of PIMS that mitigates the practical issues of GP-UCB and TS.