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Applications · Climate

Shilei Cao, Hehai Lin, Jiashun Cheng, Yang Liu, Guowen Li, Xuehe Wang, Juepeng Zheng, Haoyuan Liang, Meng Jin, Chengwei Qin 等

While recent advances in machine learning have equipped Weather Foundation Models (WFMs) with substantial generalization capabilities across diverse downstream tasks, the escalating computational requirements associated with their expanding scale increasingly hinder practical deployment. Current Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods, designed for vision or language tasks, fail to address the unique challenges of weather downstream tasks, such as variable heterogeneity, resolution diversity, and spatiotemporal coverage variations, leading to suboptimal performance when applied to WFMs. To bridge this gap, we introduce WeatherPEFT, a novel PEFT framework for WFMs incorporating two synergistic innovations. First, during the forward pass, Task-Adaptive Dynamic Prompting (TADP) dynamically injects the embedding weights within the encoder to the input tokens of the pre-trained backbone via internal and external pattern extraction, enabling context-aware feature recalibration for specific downstream tasks. Furthermore, during backpropagation, Stochastic Fisher-Guided Adaptive Selection (SFAS) not only leverages Fisher information to identify and update the most task-critical parameters, thereby preserving invariant pre-trained knowledge, but also introduces randomness to stabilize the selection. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of WeatherPEFT on three downstream tasks, where existing PEFT methods show significant gaps versus Full-Tuning, and WeatherPEFT achieves performance parity with Full-Tuning using fewer trainable parameters. The code of this work is available at https://github.com/ShileiCao/WeatherPEFT.

Applications · Climate

Sumanth Varambally, Marshall Fisher, Jas Thakker, Yiwei Chen, Zhirui Xia, Yasaman Jafari, Ruijia Niu, Manas Jain, Veeramakali Vignesh Manivannan, Zachary Novack 等

Foundation models for weather science are pre-trained on vast amounts of structured numerical data and outperform traditional weather forecasting systems. However, these models lack language-based reasoning capabilities, limiting their utility in interactive scientific workflows. Large language models (LLMs) excel at understanding and generating text but cannot reason about high-dimensional meteorological datasets. We bridge this gap by building the first agentic framework for weather science. Our framework includes a Python code-based environment for agents (ZephyrusWorld) to interact with weather data, featuring tools including a WeatherBench 2 dataset indexer, geolocator for geocoding from natural language, weather forecasting, climate simulation capabilities, and a climatology module for querying precomputed climatological statistics (e.g., means, extremes, and quantiles) across multiple timescales. We design Zephyrus, a multi-turn LLM-based weather agent that iteratively analyzes weather datasets, observes results, and refines its approach through conversational feedback loops. We accompany the agent with a new benchmark, ZephyrusBench, with a scalable data generation pipeline that constructs diverse question-answer pairs across weather-related tasks, from basic lookups to advanced forecasting, extreme event detection, and counterfactual reasoning. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the strong performance of Zephyrus agents over text-only baselines, outperforming them by up to 44 percentage points in correctness. However, the hard tasks are still difficult even with frontier LLMs, highlighting the challenging nature of our benchmark and suggesting room for future development. Our codebase and benchmark are available at \url{https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/Zephyrus}.

Applications · Climate

Juan Duque, Razvan Ciuca, Ayoub Echchahed, Hugo Larochelle, Aaron Courville

Addressing climate change requires global coordination, yet rational economic actors often prioritize immediate gains over collective welfare, resulting in social dilemmas. InvestESG is a recently proposed multi-agent simulation that captures the dynamic interplay between investors and companies under climate risk. We provide a formal characterization of the conditions under which InvestESG exhibits an intertemporal social dilemma, deriving theoretical thresholds at which individual incentives diverge from collective welfare. Building on this, we apply Advantage Alignment, a scalable opponent shaping algorithm shown to be effective in general-sum games, to influence agent learning in InvestESG. We offer theoretical insights into why Advantage Alignment systematically favors socially beneficial equilibria by biasing learning dynamics toward cooperative outcomes. Our results demonstrate that strategically shaping the learning processes of economic agents can result in better outcomes that could inform policy mechanisms to better align market incentives with long-term sustainability goals.

Applications · Climate

Chenrui Xu, Xi Huang, Ying-Jun Zhang, Jianwei Huang

Accurate prediction of extreme wind velocities has substantial significance in industry, particularly for the operation management of wind power plants. Although the state-of-the-art data-driven models perform well for general meteorological forecasting, they may exhibit large errors for extreme weather—for example, systematically underestimating the magnitudes and short-term variation of extreme winds. To address this issue, we conduct a theoretical analysis of how the data frequency spectrum influences errors in extreme wind prediction. Based on these insights, we propose a novel loss function that incorporates a gradient penalty to mitigate the magnitude shrinkage of extreme weather, and we theoretically justify its effectiveness via a PDE-based energy–enstrophy analysis. To capture more precise short-term wind velocity variations, we design a novel structure of physics-embedded machine learning models with frequency reweighting. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to the baseline models, our approach achieves significant improvements in predicting extreme wind velocities while maintaining robust overall performance.

Applications · Time Series

Qihe Huang, Zhengyang Zhou, Yangze Li, Jiaming Ma, Kuo Yang, Binwu Wang, Xu Wang, Yang Wang

Accurate weather forecasting is crucial for climate research, disaster mitigation, and societal planning. Despite recent progress with deep learning, global atmospheric data remain uniquely challenging since weather dynamics evolve across heterogeneous spatial and temporal scales ranging from planetary circulations to localized phenomena. Capturing such cross-scale interactions within a unified framework remains an open problem. To address this gap, we propose \textbf{STORM}, a spatio-temporal model that disentangles atmospheric variations into multiple scales to uncover scale-specific dependencies. In addition, it enables coherent forecasting across multiple resolutions, maintaining consistent temporal evolution. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that STORM consistently delivers superior performance across both global and regional settings, as well as for short- and long-term forecasts.

Applications · Climate

Chang Xu, Gencer Sumbul, Li Mi, Robin Zbinden, Devis Tuia

Super-resolving climate data is crucial for fine-grained decision-making in various domains, ranging from agriculture to environmental conservation. However, existing super-resolution approaches struggle to generate the high-frequency spatial information present in climate data, especially over regions showing complex terrain variability. A key obstacle lies in a frequency bias existing in both deep neural networks (DNNs) and climate data: DNNs exhibit such bias by overfitting to low-frequency information, which is further exacerbated by the prevalence of low-frequency components in climate data (e.g., plains, oceans). As a consequence, geography-dependent high-frequency details are hard to reconstruct from coarse climate inputs with DNNs. To improve the fidelity of climate super-resolution (SR), we introduce GeoFAR: by explicitly encoding climatic patterns at different frequencies, while learning implicit geographical neural representations (i.e., related to location and elevation), our approach provides frequency-aware and geography-informed representations for climate SR, thereby reconstructing fine-grained climate information at high resolution. Experiments show that GeoFAR is a model-agnostic approach that can mitigate high-frequency prediction errors in both deterministic and generative SR models, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance across various spatial resolutions, atmospheric variables, and downscaling ratios. Datasets and code are available at https://eceo-epfl.github.io/GeoFAR/.

Applications · Climate

Bernardo Perrone Ribeiro, Jana Faganeli Pucer

Radar-based precipitation nowcasting, the task of forecasting short-term precipitation fields from previous radar images, is a critical problem for flood risk management and decision-making. While deep learning has substantially advanced this field, two challenges remain fundamental: the uncertainty of atmospheric dynamics and the efficient modeling of high-dimensional data. Diffusion models have shown strong promise by producing sharp, reliable forecasts, but their iterative sampling process is computationally prohibitive for time-critical applications. We introduce FlowCast, the first end-to-end probabilistic model leveraging Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) as a direct noise-to-data generative framework for precipitation nowcasting. Unlike hybrid approaches, FlowCast learns a direct noise-to-data mapping in a compressed latent space, enabling rapid, high-fidelity sample generation. Our experiments demonstrate that FlowCast establishes a new state-of-the-art in probabilistic performance while also exceeding deterministic baselines in predictive accuracy. A direct comparison further reveals the CFM objective is both more accurate and significantly more efficient than a diffusion objective on the same architecture, maintaining high performance with significantly fewer sampling steps. This work positions CFM as a powerful and practical alternative for high-dimensional spatiotemporal forecasting.

Applications · Climate

Changhoon Song, Teng-Yuan Chang, Youngjoon Hong

Accurate forecasting of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or storms is critical for risk management and disaster mitigation. Although high-resolution radar observations have spurred extensive research on nowcasting models, precipitation nowcasting remains particularly challenging due to pronounced spatial locality, intricate fine-scale rainfall structures, and variability in forecasting horizons. While recent diffusion-based generative ensembles show promising results, they are computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time applications. In contrast, deterministic models are computationally efficient but remain biased toward normal rainfall. Furthermore, the benchmark datasets commonly used in prior studies are themselves skewed--either dominated by ordinary rainfall events or restricted to extreme rainfall episodes--thereby hindering general applicability in real-world settings. In this paper, we propose exPreCast, an efficient deterministic framework for generating finely detailed radar forecasts, and introduce a newly constructed balanced radar dataset from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which encompasses both ordinary precipitation and extreme events. Our model integrates local spatiotemporal attention, a texture-preserving cubic dual upsampling decoder, and a temporal extractor to flexibly adjust forecasting horizons. Experiments on established benchmarks (SEVIR and MeteoNet) as well as on the balanced KMA dataset demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, delivering accurate and reliable nowcasts across both normal and extreme rainfall regimes.

Applications · Climate

Rafael Pablos Sarabia, Joachim Nyborg, Morten Birk, Jeppe Sjørup, Anders Vesterholt, Ira Assent

We present a deep learning model for high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasting over an 8-hour horizon in Europe, overcoming the limitations of radar-only deep learning models with short forecast lead times. Our model efficiently integrates multiple data sources - including radar, satellite, and physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) - while capturing long-range interactions, resulting in accurate forecasts with robust uncertainty quantification through consistent probabilistic maps. Featuring a compact architecture, it enables more efficient training and faster inference than existing models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model surpasses current operational NWP systems, extrapolation-based methods, and deep-learning nowcasting models, setting a new standard for high-resolution precipitation forecasting in Europe, ensuring a balance between accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency.

Applications · Climate

Doyi Kim, Minseok Seo, Changick Kim

Precipitation forecasting relies on heterogeneous data sets. Weather radar is accurate, but coverage is geographically limited and costly to maintain. Weather stations provide accurate but sparse point measurements, while satellites offer dense, high-resolution coverage without direct rainfall retrieval. To overcome these limitations, we propose Query-Conditioned Gaussian Splatting (QCGS), the first framework to fuse automatic weather station (AWS) observations with satellite imagery for generating radar-like rainfall fields. Unlike conventional 2D Gaussian splatting, which renders the entire image plane, QCGS selectively renders only queried rainfall regions, avoiding unnecessary computation in non-precipitating areas while preserving sharp precipitation structures. The framework combines a radar point proposal network that identifies rainfall-support locations with an implicit neural representation (INR) network that predicts Gaussian parameters for each point. QCGS enables efficient, resolution-flexible rainfall field generation in real time. Through extensive evaluation with benchmark precipitation products, QCGS demonstrates over 50\% improvement in RMSE compared to conventional gridded rainfall products, and consistently maintains high performance across multiple spatiotemporal scales.

Romain Thoreau, Valerio Marsocci, Dawa Derksen

As large-scale heterogeneous data sets become increasingly available, adapting foundation models at low cost has become a key issue. Seminal works in natural language processing, e.g. Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), leverage the low "intrinsic rank" of parameter updates during adaptation. In this paper, we argue that incorporating stronger inductive biases on both the data and the models can enhance the adaptation of Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs), pretrained on RGB satellite images, to other types of optical satellite data. Specifically, the pretrained parameters of GFMs serve as a strong prior for the spatial structure of multispectral images. For this reason, we introduce DEFLECT (Deflecting Embeddings for Finetuning Latent representations for Earth and Climate Tasks), a novel strategy for adapting GFMs to multispectral satellite imagery with very few additional parameters. DEFLECT improves the representation capabilities of the extracted features, particularly enhancing spectral information, which is essential for geoscience and environmental-related tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method across three different GFMs and five diverse datasets, ranging from forest monitoring to marine environment segmentation. Compared to competing methods, DEFLECT achieves on-par or higher accuracy with 5-10x fewer parameters for classification and segmentation tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/VMarsocci/DEFLECT.

Qiusheng Huang, Xiaohui Zhong, Xu Fan, Hao Li

Similar to conventional video generation, current deep learning-based weather prediction frameworks often lack explicit physical constraints, leading to unphysical outputs that limit their reliability for operational forecasting. Among various physical processes requiring proper representation, radiation plays a fundamental role as it drives Earth's weather and climate systems. However, accurate simulation of radiative transfer processes remains challenging for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to their inherent complexity and high computational costs. Here, we propose FuXi-RTM, a hybrid physics-guided deep learning framework designed to enhance weather forecast accuracy while enforcing physical consistency. FuXi-RTM integrates a primary forecasting model (FuXi) with a fixed deep learning-based radiative transfer model (DLRTM) surrogate that efficiently replaces conventional radiation parameterization schemes. This represents the first deep learning-based weather forecasting framework to explicitly incorporate physical process modeling. Evaluated over a comprehensive 5-year dataset, FuXi-RTM outperforms its unconstrained counterpart in 88.51% of 3320 variable and lead time combinations, with improvements in radiative flux predictions. By incorporating additional physical processes, FuXi-RTM paves the way for next-generation weather forecasting systems that are both accurate and physically consistent.

Hao Zheng, Yuting Zheng, Hanbo Huang, Chaofan Sun, Enhui Liao, Lin Liu, Yi Han, Hao Zhou, Shiyu Liang

Reconstructing atmospheric surface \text CO _2 is crucial for understanding climate dynamics and informing global mitigation strategies. Traditional inversion models achieve precise global \text CO _2 reconstruction but rely heavily on uncertain prior estimates of fluxes and emissions. Inspired by recent advances in data-driven weather forecasting, we explore whether data-driven models can reduce reliance on these priors. However, \text CO _2 reconstruction presents unique challenges, including complex spatio-temporal dynamics, periodic patterns and sparse observations. We propose \text CO _2-Net, a data-driven model that addresses these challenges without requiring extensive prior data. We formulate \text CO _2 reconstruction as solving a constrained advection-diffusion equation and derive three key components: physics-informed spatio-temporal factorization for capturing complex transport dynamics, wind-based embeddings for modeling periodic variations and a semi-supervised loss for integrating sparse \text CO _2 observations with dense meteorological data. \text CO _2-Net is designed in three sizes---small (S), base (B) and large (L)---to balance performance and efficiency. On CMIP6 reanalysis data, \text CO _2-Net (S) and (L) reduce RMSE by 11% and 71% , respectively, when compared to the best data-driven baseline. On real observations, \text CO _2-Net (L) achieves RMSE comparable to inversion models. The ablation study shows that the effectiveness of wind-based embedding and semi-supervised loss stems from their compatibility with our spatio-temporal factorization. Code is available at https://github.com/Leamonz/CORE.

Shaohan Li, Hao Yang, Min Chen, Xiaolin Qin

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances are made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments shows state-of-the-art performance of our method. In specific, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82% and 23.39%, respectively.

Yi Wang, Zhitong Xiong, Chenying Liu, Adam J. Stewart, Thomas Dujardin, Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Angelos Zavras, Franziska Gerken, Ioannis Papoutsis, Laura Leal-Taixé 等

Advances in Earth observation (EO) foundation models have unlocked the potential of big satellite data to learn generic representations from space, benefiting a wide range of downstream applications crucial to our planet. However, most existing efforts remain limited to fixed spectral sensors, focus solely on the Earth's surface, and overlook valuable metadata beyond imagery. In this work, we take a step towards next-generation EO foundation models with three key components: 1) Copernicus-Pretrain, a massive-scale pretraining dataset that integrates 18.7M aligned images from all major Copernicus Sentinel missions, spanning from the Earth's surface to its atmosphere; 2) Copernicus-FM, a unified foundation model capable of processing any spectral or non-spectral sensor modality using extended dynamic hypernetworks and flexible metadata encoding; and 3) Copernicus-Bench, a systematic evaluation benchmark with 15 hierarchical downstream tasks ranging from preprocessing to specialized applications for each Sentinel mission. Our dataset, model, and benchmark greatly improve the scalability, versatility, and multimodal adaptability of EO foundation models, while also creating new opportunities to connect EO, weather, and climate research. Codes at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/Copernicus-FM.

Tingrui Qiao, Caroline Walker, Chris Cunningham, Yun Sing Koh

Thematic analysis (TA) is a widely used qualitative method for identifying underlying meanings within unstructured text. However, TA requires manual processes, which become increasingly labour-intensive and time-consuming as datasets grow. While large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to assist with TA on small-scale datasets, three key limitations hinder their effectiveness. First, current approaches often depend on interactions between an LLM agent and a human coder, a process that becomes challenging with larger datasets. Second, with feedback from the human coder, the LLM tends to mirror the human coder, which provides a narrower viewpoint of the data. Third, existing methods follow a sequential process, where codes are generated for individual samples without recalling previous codes and associated data, reducing the ability to analyse data holistically. To address these limitations, we propose Thematic-LM, an LLM-based multi-agent system for large-scale computational thematic analysis. Thematic-LM assigns specialised tasks to each agent, such as coding, aggregating codes, and maintaining and updating the codebook. We assign coder agents different identity perspectives to simulate the subjective nature of TA, fostering a more diverse interpretation of the data. We applied Thematic-LM to the Dreaddit dataset and the Reddit climate change dataset to analyse themes related to social media stress and online opinions on climate change. We evaluate the resulting themes based on trustworthiness principles in qualitative research. Our study reveals insights such as assigning different identities to coder agents promotes divergence in codes and themes.

Jacopo Lenti, Luca Maria Aiello, Corrado Monti, Gianmarco De Francisci Morales

Climate activism is crucial in stimulating collective societal and behavioral change towards sustainable practices through political pressure. Although multiple factors contribute to the participation in activism, their complex relationships and the scarcity of data on their interactions have restricted most prior research to studying them in isolation, thus preventing the development of a quantitative, causal understanding of why people approach activism. In this work, we develop a comprehensive causal model of how and why Reddit users engage with activist communities driving mass climate protests (mainly the 2019 Earth Strike, Fridays for Future, and Extinction Rebellion). Our framework, based on Stochastic Variational Inference applied to Bayesian Networks, learns the causal pathways over multiple time periods. Distinct from previous studies, our approach uses large-scale and fine-grained longitudinal data (2016 to 2022) to jointly model the roles of sociodemographic makeup, experience of extreme weather events, exposure to climate-related news, and social influence through online interactions. We find that among users interested in climate change, participation in online activist communities is indeed influenced by direct interactions with activists and largely by recent exposure to media coverage of climate protests. Among people aware of climate change, left-leaning people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are particularly represented in online activist groups. Our findings offer empirical validation for theories of media influence and critical mass, and lay the foundations to inform interventions and future studies to foster public participation in collective action.

Jon Whittle 0001

In 2024, Demis Hassabis and John Jumper won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry for developing an AI model to predict the shape of every protein known to mankind. Chair of the Nobel Committee, Heiner Linke, described the AI system as the achievement of a ''50-year-old dream'' that solved a notoriously difficult problem eluding scientists since the 1970s. This AI system, AlphaFold, has ushered in a golden age of AI for science - the development of AI techniques for accelerating scientific discovery. We are currently amid the largest surge in the application and development of AI for scientific research in history. Scholarly publications, patents, education, training, research activity and investment are increasing at unprecedented rates. AI may help scientists address humanity's greatest challenges such as climate change, pollution, resource scarcity and infectious diseases. In this talk, I will cover the state of practice in AI for science. I'll discuss some of the successes already achieved as well as challenges for applying AI to science in the future. And I'll highlight some of the work at CSIRO, Australia's national science agency, which contains over 1000 AI experts developing novel AI solutions to long-standing scientific problems.

Emre Eftelioglu, Naoki Abe, Ramakrishnan Kannan, Yuzhou Chen, Kathleen Buckingham, Auroop R. Ganguly, James Hodson 0003

The Fragile Earth Workshop is a recurring event in ACM's KDD Conference on research in knowledge discovery and data mining that gathers the research community to find and explore how data science can measure and progress climate and social issues, following the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework.

Yuxuan Liang 0002, Haomin Wen, Yutong Xia, Ming Jin 0005, Bin Yang 0002, Flora Salim, Qingsong Wen, Shirui Pan, Gao Cong

Spatio-Temporal (ST) data science, which includes sensing, managing, and mining large-scale data across space and time, is fundamental to understanding complex systems in domains such as urban computing, climate science, and intelligent transportation. Traditional deep learning approaches have significantly advanced this field, particularly in the stage of ST data mining. However, these models remain task-specific and often require extensive labeled data. Inspired by the success of Foundation Models (FM), especially large language models, researchers have begun exploring the concept of Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models (STFMs) to enhance adaptability and generalization across diverse ST tasks. Unlike prior architectures, STFMs empower the entire workflow of ST data science, ranging from data sensing, management, to mining, thereby offering a more holistic and scalable approach. Despite rapid progress, a systematic study of STFMs for ST data science remains lacking. This survey aims to provide a comprehensive review of STFMs, categorizing existing methodologies and identifying key research directions to advance ST general intelligence.