Reinforcement learning (RL) excels in reasoning tasks with verifiable rewards, while its adaptation to machine translation (MT) remains challenging due to the lack of unique reward signals under multiple valid translations. Existing RL approaches for MT face either fixed references in supervised settings or the production of homogeneous references leading to mode collapse in unsupervised settings. Both limitations arise from ignoring entropy dynamics in RL-based MT. The core challenge is leveraging entropy for supervision construction and self-evolution. In this paper, we propose an Entropy-Driven Unsupervised RL for MT. Our framework integrates entropy-guided sampling for exploration, confidence-weighted label generation to transcend majority-voting bias, and uncertainty-aware optimization to prioritize high-entropy tokens. These mechanisms allow reward signals to co-evolve with model proficiency beyond fixed references. Experiments across multiple language pairs show our method outperforms supervised and unsupervised baselines by +0.63 and +2.52 average points, respectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/fortunatekiss/URLMT.
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Despite the importance of open-ended event forecasting for risk management, current LLM-based methods predominantly target only the most probable outcomes, neglecting the intrinsic uncertainty of real-world events. To bridge this gap, we advance open-ended event forecasting from pinpoint forecasting to *scatter forecasting* by introducing the proxy task of hypothesis generation. This paradigm aims to generate an inclusive and diverse set of hypotheses that broadly cover the space of plausible future events. To this end, we propose SCATTER, a reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimizes inclusiveness and diversity of the hypothesis. Specifically, we design a novel hybrid reward that consists of three components: 1) a validity reward that measures semantic alignment with observed events, 2) an intra-group diversity reward to encourage variation within sampled responses, and 3) an inter-group diversity reward to promote exploration across distinct modes. By integrating the validity-gated score into the overall objective, we confine the exploration of wildly diversified outcomes to contextually plausible futures, preventing the mode collapse issue. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets, i.e., OpenForecast and OpenEP, demonstrate that SCATTER significantly outperforms strong baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/Sambac1/SCATTER .
Reflective RAG: Self-Evaluation Driven Strategy Optimization in Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation
PDF ↗Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a widely adopted paradigm for grounding Large Language Models (LLMs) in external knowledge. Recent agentic RAG systems introduce multi-turn reasoning, but they often lack the capacity to evaluate the utility of retrieved information, leading to brittle reasoning and suboptimal decision-making. We propose Reflective RAG, an agentic framework that incorporates self-evaluation to dynamically optimize retrieval and generation strategy. At its core, Reflective RAG employs a reflection tagging mechanism that allows the model to critique the relevance of retrieved content, thereby explicitly guiding its subsequent policy. To ensure robust learning, we introduce a two-stage training procedure that partially decouples evaluation semantics from strategy optimization. First, during supervised fine-tuning (SFT), the model learns to generate accurate reflection signals by self-correcting labels based on internal uncertainty. Second, a reinforcement learning (RL) stage optimizes the agent’s strategy using these reflections, stabilized by dynamic KL regularization. Evaluations across five knowledge-intensive QA benchmarks demonstrate that Reflective RAG consistently outperforms strong agentic baselines. Further analysis demonstrates its improved training stability and stronger generalization to complex multi-hop reasoning tasks.
P-QuASAR: A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Holistic Patent Quality Assessment and Refinement
PDF ↗Automated assessment of patent quality is increasingly important given the growth of patent filings and the adoption of AI-assisted drafting. Existing methods often rely on modular pipelines or generic detectors, resulting in fragmented decisions and limited integration across quality dimensions. We propose P-QuASAR (Patent Quality Assurance via Structured Assessment and Refinement), a unified probabilistic framework that represents patent specifications as Quality Graphs. Multiple interdependent quality dimensions—such as regulatory compliance, technical coherence, and figure–text consistency—are jointly modeled using uncertainty-aware Quality Assessment Functions with learned edge potentials. Cross-dimensional evidence propagation via loopy belief propagation enables calibrated defect detection, while Optimal Intervention Paths translate inferred quality states into prioritized and actionable refinement recommendations. Evaluated on 500 patents across eight IPC domains against seven state-of-the-art baselines, P-QuASAR achieves substantial improvements: 99.86% balanced accuracy on regulatory compliance, 88.91% on technical coherence, and 94.70% on figure consistency, outperforming the strongest baselines by 3.0%, 9.0%, and 7.1%, respectively. Ablation studies confirm that joint graph reasoning contributes 3.66 points to average performance. When applied for refinement, P-QuASAR reduces average defects in AI-generated patents from 9.04–12.15 to 3.21 per document, surpassing human-authored patents.
Event prediction plays a critical role in high-stakes applications such as military operations, public safety, and healthcare. Current methods learn temporal knowledge graphs to predict events at future timestamps, and the predictions directly influence decision-making and resource allocation. However, these methods lack rigorous uncertainty quantification, which limits their reliability for decision-making, especially in high-stakes scenarios where the cost of errors is high. In this paper, we propose CFEP, a conformal prediction framework tailored for event prediction to address this challenge. This is achieved through end-to-end optimization that ensures coverage while improving efficiency. Specifically, we first introduce non-conformity score diffusion, which captures both topological and temporal uncertainty in temporal knowledge graphs. Additionally, we propose an efficiency-aware optimization algorithm to reduce the coverage gap and improve computational efficiency. Experimental results on three public datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently guarantees statistical coverage while improving efficiency. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/hucheng-IIE/CFEP.
Addressing Overthinking in Large Vision-Language Models via Gated Perception-Reasoning Optimization
PDF ↗Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have exhibited strong reasoning capabilities through chain-of-thought mechanisms that generate step-by-step rationales. However, such slow-thinking approaches often lead to overthinking, where models produce excessively verbose responses even for simple queries, resulting in test-time inefficiency and even degraded accuracy. Prior work has attempted to mitigate this issue via adaptive reasoning strategies, but these methods largely overlook a fundamental bottleneck: visual perception failures. We argue that stable reasoning critically depends on low-level visual grounding, and that reasoning errors often originate from imperfect perception rather than insufficient deliberation. To address this limitation, we propose Gated Perception-Reasoning Optimization (GPRO), a meta-reasoning controller that dynamically routes computation among three decision paths at each generation step: a lightweight fast path, a slow perception path for re-examining visual inputs, and a slow reasoning path for internal self-reflection. To learn this distinction, we derive large-scale failure attribution supervision from approximately 790k samples, using teacher models to distinguish perceptual hallucinations from reasoning errors. We then train the controller with multi-objective reinforcement learning to optimize the trade-off between task accuracy and computational cost under uncertainty. Experiments on five benchmarks demonstrate that GPRO substantially improves both accuracy and efficiency, outperforming recent slow-thinking methods while generating significantly shorter responses.
BV-Blend: Uncertainty-Weighted Historical Baselines for Stable Critic-Free RL with Verifiable Rewards
PDF ↗Critic-free reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), exemplified by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), avoids training a value function (critic) and reduces memory and compute overhead relative to critic-based PPO pipelines for aligning large language models. However, GRPO-style advantage estimation depends on prompt-local (within-prompt-group) reward statistics and can be unstable. In particular, when all rollouts in a prompt group receive identical rewards, the within-group reward variance becomes zero, and group normalization yields *zero* advantages for that group, impeding learning in cold-start regimes with binary verifiers. We introduce **BV-Blend**, a critic-free framework that stabilizes advantage estimation by combining prompt-local on-policy statistics with semantic-cluster-conditioned historical moments. BV-Blend maintains EMA-tracked reward moments for each cluster, derives a confidence weight from a standard error of the mean (SEM) proxy, and uses this weight to blend historical and prompt-local baseline and variance statistics into a standardized advantage for PPO-style clipped updates. Experiments on verifiable reasoning benchmarks show that BV-Blend improves training stability and performance, and remains robust in regimes where group-normalized methods may stall.
Reinforcement Learning (RL) with sparse outcome rewards suffers from inefficient credit assignment in complex LLM reasoning tasks. While utilizing stronger LLMs as teachers to derive dense token-level supervision offers a cost-effective alternative to proprietary reward models, it relies on the flawed assumption that teachers are perfect oracles. In reality, teacher models exhibit capability limitations and uncertainty, producing noisy signals that make student policies susceptible to reward hacking. To address this, we propose Teacher Reward Adaptive Calibration (TRAC), a robust framework that filters noisy supervision by dynamically modulating teacher influence via a multi-granularity calibration mechanism. TRAC evaluates teacher reliability across three principled dimensions: problem-level expertise, trajectory-level discrimination, and token-level confidence. Furthermore, we integrate TRAC with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), formulating as TRAC-GRPO, which treats calibrated teacher-derived reward as an additive advantage reshaping term to ensure fair advantage estimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TRAC effectively mitigates teacher noise, significantly enhancing the reasoning capabilities and training stability of LLMs compared to standard baselines. The code will be available at: https://github.com/JIA-Lab-research/TRAC.
Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) achieve strong multimodal reasoning but frequently exhibit hallucinations and incorrect responses with high certainty, which hinders their usage in high-stakes domains. Existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, largely developed for text-only LLMs, typically optimize a single holistic confidence score using binary answer-level correctness. This design is mismatched to LVLMs: an incorrect prediction may arise from perceptual failures or from reasoning errors given correct perception, and a single confidence conflates these sources while visual uncertainty is often dominated by language priors. To address these issues, we propose VL-Calibration, a reinforcement learning framework that explicitly decouples confidence into visual and reasoning confidence. To supervise visual confidence without ground-truth perception labels, we introduce an intrinsic visual certainty estimation that combines (i) visual grounding measured by KL-divergence under image perturbations and (ii) internal certainty measured by token entropy. We further propose token-level advantage reweighting to focus optimization on tokens based on visual certainty, suppressing ungrounded hallucinations while preserving valid perception. Experiments on thirteen benchmarks show that VL-Calibration effectively improves calibration while boosting visual reasoning accuracy, and it generalizes to out-of-distribution benchmarks across model scales and architectures.
Conversational recommender systems (CRSs) operate under incremental preference revelation, requiring recommendation decisions under uncertainty. While recent LLM-based approaches achieve strong performance on proxy metrics such as Recall@K and BLEU, they often fail to deliver high-quality, user-aligned recommendations in practice, as they optimize intermediate objectives like retrieval accuracy or fluent generation rather than recommendation quality itself. We propose HARPO (Hierarchical Agentic Reasoning with Preference Optimization), an agentic framework that reframes conversational recommendation as a structured decision-making process optimized for multi-dimensional recommendation quality. HARPO integrates (i) hierarchical preference learning that decomposes recommendation quality into interpretable dimensions (relevance, diversity, satisfaction, and engagement) with context-dependent weighting; (ii) deliberative tree-search reasoning guided by a learned value network evaluating candidate paths on predicted quality; and (iii) domain-agnostic reasoning abstractions through Virtual Tool Operations and multi-agent refinement. We evaluate HARPO on ReDial, INSPIRED, and MUSE, demonstrating consistent improvements over strong baselines on recommendation-centric metrics while maintaining competitive response quality.
Reinforcement Learning (RL) is the dominant paradigm for training Large Language Model (LLM) agents on long-horizon tasks. However, sparse and delayed rewards often lead to trajectory neglect, in which agents lose focus on the task goal and interaction history at intermediate steps. Prior work has explored step-level supervision using Shannon-entropy–based uncertainty signals, which conflate inherent state complexity with agent confidence and therefore provide unreliable estimates of decision reliability. To address this issue, we propose normalized entropy, which measures confidence deviations relative to an agent’s average behavior under a given state, thereby strengthening the association between low-quality actions and trajectory neglect. Building on this insight, we introduce Selective Trajectory-Aware Policy Optimization (STAPO), a hierarchical group-based RL framework. STAPO leverages normalized entropy to locate outlier steps associated with trajectory neglect and optimizes them via a joint mechanism of trajectory-aware reward and trajectory-independent penalty, enhancing trajectory awareness while preserving training stability. Extensive experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Search-Augmented QA demonstrate that STAPO achieves state-of-the-art performance while substantially alleviating trajectory neglect, validating its effectiveness and robustness for agentic tasks.
Improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) has largely relied on iterative self-training with model-generated data. While effective at boosting accuracy, existing approaches primarily reinforce successful reasoning paths, incurring a substantial calibration cost: models become overconfident and lose the ability to represent uncertainty. This failure has been characterized as a form of model collapse in alignment, where predictive distributions degenerate toward low-variance point estimates.We address this issue by reframing open-ended reasoning training as an epistemic learning problem, in which models must learn not only how to reason, but also when their reasoning should be trusted. We propose epistemically-calibrated reasoning (EpiCaR) as a training objective that jointly optimizes reasoning performance and calibration, and instantiate it within an iterative supervised fine-tuning framework using explicitly extracted meta-cognitive self-evaluation signals. Experiments on Llama-3 and Qwen-3 families demonstrate that our approach achieves Pareto-superiority over standard baselines in both accuracy and calibration, particularly in models with sufficient reasoning capacity (e.g., 3B+). This framework generalizes effectively to OOD mathematical reasoning (GSM8K) and code generation (MBPP). Ultimately, our approach enables a 3\times reduction in the overall inference compute budget, matching the K=30 majority-vote performance of STaR with only K=10 confidence-weighted samples, entirely without the multi-model overhead of external verifiers.
Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) enhances LLM reasoning but often induces overconfidence, where incorrect responses yield lower perplexity than correct ones, degrading relative calibration as described by the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Existing approaches either yield limited improvements in calibration or sacrifice gains in reasoning accuracy. We first prove that this degradation in GRPO-style algorithms stems from their uncertainty-agnostic advantage estimation, which inevitably misaligns optimization gradients with calibration. This leads to improved accuracy at the expense of degraded calibration. We then propose Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization (CAPO). It adopts a logistic AUC surrogate loss that is theoretically consistent and admits regret bound, enabling uncertainty-aware advantage estimation. By further incorporating a noise masking mechanism, CAPO achieves stable learning dynamics that jointly optimize calibration and accuracy. Experiments on multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that CAPO-1.5B significantly improves calibration by up to 15% while achieving accuracy comparable to or better than GRPO, and further boosts accuracy on downstream inference-time scaling tasks by up to 5%. Moreover, when allowed to abstain under low-confidence conditions, CAPO achieves a Pareto-optimal precision–coverage trade-off, highlighting its practical value for hallucination mitigation.
Standard evaluators, such as reward models, compress diverse human judgments into a single scalar, conflating valid Subjective Preference with Cognitive Uncertainty. This structural mismatch often leads to brittle alignment and reward hacking. To address this, we propose PRISM which reinterprets reward evaluation as a conditional distribution parameterized by a Mixture of Gaussians. PRISM structurally disentangles these factors: distinct Gaussian experts emerge to capture conflicting preference dimensions, while their variance estimates quantify uncertainty, acting as a dynamic reliability gate during optimization. We introduce a two-stage training strategy to learn these disentangled representations from scalable pairwise comparisons without requiring massive fine-grained annotations. Empirical results show that PRISM significantly outperforms scalar baselines in both accuracy and generalization. Furthermore, in downstream Reinforcement Learning, PRISM effectively mitigates reward hacking, yielding policies that are more robust and resilient to distribution shifts.
Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent’s ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain under-explored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.
Hallucinations arise when large language models (LLMs) guess rather than acknowledge their underlying uncertainty. Existing static strategies for mitigating hallucinations have been only partially successful, largely because they do not explicitly model the information gain from interacting with the external environment. Researchers need a general method to proactively steer users toward informative clarifications, thereby unlocking the model’s effective capacity under underspecified inputs. We model the uncertainty of LLMs in interactive settings and uncover the mechanism of active calibration between model concepts and human evaluations, improving reliability. We show that calibration error in LLMs density estimation admits a non-vanishing lower bound under non-interactive learning, while interaction empirically reduces it. We further characterize that calibration error identifies informative queries and that calibration can be accelerated by shifting query distributions from imbalanced to balanced regimes. Guided by these insights, we propose a calibration-driven Interactive Learning Strategy (ILS) that selects clarification queries by optimizing calibration error, providing both theoretical guarantees and empirical gains for reliability. Code and data are available at https://github.com/zhouyeah215/Demystifying_Uncertainty.
Recently, large language models (LLMs) have driven a systematic shift in the graph ML com- munity through the adoption of text-attributed graphs (TAGs). Although a variety of frameworks have been developed, most fail to properly ad- dress the challenge of data uncertainty in open- world environments. A representative source of such uncertainty is the limited availability of la- bels in large-scale datasets due to high annotation costs, where unlabeled nodes may belong to either known classes or novel, unknown classes. While node-level out-of-distribution detection and con- ventional open-world graph learning attempt to tackle this problem, two core limitations remain: ① Insufficient methods — existing approaches typically optimize semantics or topology in isola- tion for unknown-class rejection, failing to effec- tively integrate textual and structural information in TAGs; ② Incomplete pipelines — most stud- ies conduct only idealized analyses, such as as- suming a predefined number of unknown classes, which restricts practical utility for model updates and long-term deployment. To overcome these issues, we introduce the Open-world Graph Assis- tant (OGA), an LLM-based framework. OGA first performs unknown-class rejection via adaptive la- bel traceability (ALT), harmoniously combining semantic and topological cues, and then applies the graph label annotator (GLA) for unknown- class annotation, allowing unlabeled nodes to con- tribute to model training. In essence, OGA offers a new pipeline that fully automates the handling of unlabeled nodes in open-world environments, and we establish a systematic benchmark cover- ing four key aspects to validate its effectiveness and practicality through extensive experiments.
Zero-shot out-of-vocabulary detection (ZS-OOVD) aims to accurately recognize objects of in-vocabulary (IV) categories provided at zero-shot inference, while simultaneously rejecting undefined ones (out-of-vocabulary, OOV) that lack corresponding category prompts. However, previous methods are prone to overfitting the IV classes, leading to the OOV or undefined classes being misclassified as IV ones with a high confidence score. To address this issue, this paper proposes a zero-shot OOV detector (OOVDet), a novel framework that effectively detects predefined classes while reliably rejecting undefined ones in zero-shot scenes. Specifically, due to the model’s lack of prior knowledge about the distribution of OOV data, we synthesize region-level OOV prompts by sampling from the low-likelihood regions of the class-conditional Gaussian distributions in the hidden space, motivated by the assumption that unknown semantics are more likely to emerge in low-density areas of the latent space. For OOV images, we further propose a Dirichlet-based gradient attribution mechanism to mine pseudo-OOV image samples, where the attribution gradients are interpreted as Dirichlet evidence to estimate prediction uncertainty, and samples with high uncertainty are selected as pseudo-OOV images. Building on these synthesized OOV prompts and pseudo-OOV images, we construct the OOV decision boundary through a low-density prior constraint, which regularizes the optimization of OOV classes using Gaussian kernel density estimation in accordance with the above assumption. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves the OOV detection performance in zero-shot scenes. Code will be available.
Deep Learning · Everything Else
Recent advancements in tabular deep learning have demonstrated exceptional practical performance, yet the field often lacks a clear understanding of why these techniques actually succeed. To address this gap, our paper highlights the importance of the concept of data (aleatoric) uncertainty for explaining the effectiveness of recent tabular DL methods. While data uncertainty leads to irreducible prediction errors on test samples, it also introduces stochasticity into the training signal that can impede effective learning. We demonstrate that tabular methods differ significantly in their ability to cope with this optimization challenge. Specifically, we reveal that the success of many beneficial design choices in tabular DL, such as numerical feature embeddings, advanced ensembling strategies, retrieval-augmented models, and tabular Prior-Fitted Networks, can be partially attributed to their respective implicit mechanisms for performing well under high data uncertainty. By dissecting these varied mechanisms, we provide a unifying understanding of recent performance improvements. Furthermore, leveraging insights from this perspective, we design a novel, more effective numerical feature embedding method as an immediate practical outcome of our analysis. Overall, our work paves the way toward a principled understanding of the benefits introduced by modern tabular methods that results in the concrete advancements of existing techniques and outlines future research directions for tabular DL.
Social Aspects · Robustness
Split Federated Learning (SFL) enables privacy-preserving collaborative training by partitioning models between clients and a server. However, under non-IID data distributions, SFL often suffers from biased optimization and unstable convergence, while existing solutions largely adapt techniques from conventional federated learning. In this work, we observe that the split architecture of SFL inherently alters how client information is represented and coordinated, opening opportunities for bias compensation beyond parameter-level aggregation. Based on this insight, we propose BESplit, an architecture-aware framework that exploits the intrinsic structure of SFL to mitigate non-IID effects. First, to prevent biased local data from dominating global updates, we introduce Evidential Aggregation (EA) to perform fine-grained reweighting of client contributions based on evidential uncertainty. Second, to further reduce distributional skew, we develop Bias-Compensated Collaboration (BCC) to align split-layer representations by pairing complementary clients. Finally, Dual-Teacher Distillation (DTD) is incorporated to synchronize knowledge between decoupled client and server models, enabling independent local inference. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets demonstrate that BESplit consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy, convergence stability, and computational efficiency under diverse non-IID settings.