Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a vital role across various domains such as finance, energy, healthcare, and meteorology. Currently, most deep learning based TSF methods typically operate with a fixed lookback window. This approach comes from the high compute and memory costs of long contexts, as well as the standard practice of using sliding windows. This creates a trade-off. Making the window larger reduces the number of training samples, which can harm stability and generalization. However, keeping the window small prevents the model from using long history during inference. We propose an inference-only streaming autoregressive framework that replaces repeated full-context recomputation with a one-time context warmup and incremental decoding, enabling efficient long-history forecasting without retraining. While straightforward caching attentions is brittle for time series due to distribution shifts and noisy or redundant histories, we address these issues with cache-consistent normalization and selective memory under a fixed cache budget. Across diverse benchmarks, our approach substantially reduces inference latency with no or marginal accuracy loss, and often improves performance when longer lookbacks are beneficial.
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Online time series forecasting relies on continual updates to cope with concept drift. In multi-step forecasting, however, the ground truth for an H-step prediction arrives only after H steps, so a delayed residual entangles persistent drifts with transient shocks and seasonal fluctuations. Existing methods typically apply a uniform update rule to all delayed errors, which can overreact to noise and under-adapt to real drift. We view delayed residuals as compressed observations of latent drift over the horizon, and propose PADRE, a drift evidence driven framework that converts each delayed feedback event into a context-sensitive adaptation decision. PADRE builds a Tri-View drift representation from (i) the current input context, (ii) recent delayed-residual trajectories, and (iii) retrieved typical types of drift, and quantifies their agreement via a geometric consistency measure. To exploit recurring drift structure, PADRE mines an offline Pattern Bank of regime-conditioned residual prototypes and retrieves a soft pattern prompt online. A lightweight prompt guided policy outputs a continuous update gate that scales the backbone’s gradient step, enabling decisive updates under coherent evidence and conservative updates otherwise. Experiments on five real-world benchmarks and three backbones demonstrate consistent gains under delayed feedback, reducing MSE by 6%–15% relative to recent baselines and improving update stability across horizons.
Multivariate Time Series Classification (MTSC) demands models that can effectively capture complex temporal patterns across multiple scales while remaining computationally efficient. However, existing approaches generally struggle to reconcile fine-grained representation learning, especially under class imbalance and real-world constraints. In this paper, we present FreSH, a Frequency-Segmented Hierarchical Multi-Expert Framework designed to address these challenges. FreSH introduces a new perspective for MTSC by enabling adaptive, multi-scale analysis of temporal signals, allowing different aspects of the data to be modeled in a complementary and coordinated manner. By combining localized specialization with holistic context modeling, FreSH achieves strong representational capacity without incurring excessive computational overhead. An adaptive fusion strategy further enhances flexibility, enabling the model to dynamically emphasize the most informative components of the input. In addition, we incorporate a more robust optimization objective that improves learning stability across varying sample difficulties and class distributions. Extensive evaluations on 30 UEA benchmark datasets and real-world vibration data demonstrate that FreSH consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in classification accuracy, while substantially reducing model size and efficiency. The implementation code is publicly available at https://github.com/Wangmy2120/FreSH00.
Time-series clustering remains challenging due to the inherent trade-off between clustering effectiveness and computational efficiency. Similarity-based methods often suffer from quadratic complexity caused by pairwise distance computations, while deep learning–based approaches typically rely on costly iterative training and a large number of trainable parameters. In this paper, we propose MSRGC-Net, an efficient time-series clustering framework that integrates multiscale reservoir computing, granular-ball-based anchoring graph construction, and consensus learning. MSRGC-Net adopts a training-free reservoir computing paradigm to extract multiscale temporal representations from raw time series without backpropagation, significantly reducing computational overhead. To capture the intrinsic structure of the resulting representations, granular-ball computing is employed to adaptively model data distributions via density-consistent regions, yielding compact and robust anchor graph representations. Furthermore, a consensus-based anchoring graph optimization strategy is introduced to effectively align multiscale reservoir representations and integrate complementary information across temporal scales. Extensive experiments on widely used univariate and multivariate benchmark datasets demonstrate that MSRGC-Net consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in clustering performance while maintaining superior computational efficiency.
Probabilistic time series forecasting seeks to quantify the uncertainty of future observations. While recent works introduce latent variables to alleviate the spurious dependencies caused by hidden confounders, thereby reducing overly wide confidence intervals, simply incorporating latent factors is not sufficient. When the underlying latent dynamics evolve at multiple temporal scales, existing methods may entangle temporally coarse and fine latent dynamics, which introduces spurious latent transitions and in turn amplifies predictive uncertainty. Therefore, disentangling temporally coarse and fine latent dynamics is essential for achieving sharper and more reliable probabilistic forecasting results. Building on this insight, we propose COFE (COarse And FinE latent dynamics disentanglement), a variational autoencoder–based framework that models the temporal distribution by disentangling and modeling the rapidly changing and slowly varying latent dynamics simultaneously. In particular, the proposed COFE harnesses the independence of estimated noises between adjacent latent states as well as a sparsity constraint on estimated noise to disentangle latent dynamics across different scales effectively. More specifically, we show that the multi-scale latent dynamics are disentangled with rigorous theoretical guarantees. Extensive experiments on 15 benchmark datasets, compared against 12 state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrate that COFE achieves superior uncertainty quantification, validating its effectiveness in a wide range of real-world scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/polars8948/COFE
Time series forecasting (TSF) refers to a fundamental task of predicting future sequential data based on historical observations. One representative category of TSF methods is transformer-based approaches, which translate time series into token sequences (i.e., as raw texts) before applying well-established transformers. In this paper, we conducted extensive preliminary experiments to evaluate their stability against various noises, and we empirically observed an interesting phenomenon: applying noises with appropriate levels to training time series can promote the predictive accuracy of transformer-based TSF methods. We analyze this phenomenon from the perspective of token attention and find one basic reason is that applying noises with appropriate levels can lead to token attention weights wavy, which is more consistent to the basic characteristic of time series data. Motivated by this phenomenon and analysis, we apply perturbations and propose a sub-objective wrt, perturbations constraining token attention weights to be wavy. Accordingly, we propose a novel TSF method, namely Wave-Attention-aware TransformER (WATER). We empirically evaluate \baby across the commonly used benchmark datasets, and experimental results indicate that it consistently outperforms the existing TSF methods.
Network Traffic Anomaly Detection (NTAD), particularly under zero-positive settings, is a critical task in cybersecurity. Existing zero-positive NTAD approaches primarily rely on reconstruction-based pipelines. Nevertheless, these methods are susceptible to an identical shortcut issue, where models indiscriminately reconstruct both normal and anomalous inputs, leading to anomaly overgeneralization. To address this limitation, we propose BiPred, the first prediction-based detection paradigm for NTAD. BiPred symmetrically divides each network traffic sample into two segments and reformulates the NTAD task as a bidirectional prediction across these two segments. Unlike reconstruction-based methods, our BiPred not only eliminates shortcut learning by design but also establishes explicit bidirectional contextual dependencies, making it more sensitive to anomalous traffic. Moreover, we develop a novel Residual Scanning Mamba block that encodes multi-view contextual information to support bidirectional prediction. A residual fusion mechanism is proposed for the multi-view scanning Mamba to suppress the accumulation of inter-view redundancy. This design prevents representation degradation and provides multi-view contextual details for prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our BiPred paradigm, highlighting a new research direction for NTAD. Code is available at https://github.com/ikun0124/BiPred.
Reliable forecasting of cross-regional terrorism fatalities is essential for early warning and security planning. However, real-world terrorism data are characterized by extreme sparsity, abrupt volatility, and weak, rapidly shifting non-Euclidean spatial relationships, posing substantial challenges for existing spatiotemporal forecasting models in learning stable multi-scale dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose a robust spatiotemporal forecasting framework, termed WBMCF. In the temporal dimension, a single-level Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) is introduced to stabilize temporal structures, and a Bidirectional Gated Mamba module is employed to capture stage-dependent long-range temporal dependencies; additionally, in the spatial dimension, a topology-agnostic Convolutional Feed-Forwar+d Network (ConvFFN) is incorporated to model cross-regional dependencies via implicit feature coupling, thereby eliminating reliance on fixed spatial topologies. Extensive experiments on five regional subsets of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) demonstrate that WBMCF achieves stable and competitive forecasting performance under sparse and noisy conditions. The source code is available at https://github.com/weibaozhong/WBMCF.
Spatio-temporal forecasting is inherently bottlenecked by a phenomenon we term Spatio-Temporal Duality: the paradoxical coexistence of time-varying physical lags and instantaneous semantic synchrony. Constrained by passive coupling, existing architectures often employ indiscriminate spatial aggregation that fails to dynamically arbitrate interaction intensity based on traffic states, forcing models to rely on redundant deep stacking to approximate complex dynamics. We address this issue by introducing Time Arbitrated Spatial GNN (TAS-GNN), an efficient framework that arbitrates spatial interactions through time. Our model leverages deep temporal semantics to dynamically and proactively manage the aggregation of spatial domains, effectively decoupling physical connectivity from semantic relevance. In addition, to ensure model simplicity, we also introduce spectral decoupling via discrete wavelet Transform (DWT) to capture multiscale dependencies with minimal overhead. Experiments on three real-world datasets (PEMS04, 07, 08) show that TAS-GNN not only outperforms the current baseline model in accuracy, but also significantly improves the inference speed while reducing the number of parameters.
Time series forecasting is vital in diverse sectors such as energy and transportation, where non-stationary dynamics are deeply intertwined with external events in other modalities such as texts. However, incorporating natural language-based external events to improve non-stationary forecasting remains largely unexplored, as most approaches still rely on a single modality, resulting in limited contextual knowledge and model underperformance. Enabling fine-grained multimodal interactions between temporal and textual data is challenged by two fundamental issues: (1) the gap in modeling interactions among discrete external events and continuous time series in a unified framework; (2) classical uniform diffusion timestep ignores event-induced non-stationary variability, leading to imbalanced denoising difficulty across diffusion stages. In this work, we propose event-aware non-stationary time series forecasting EventTSF, an autoregressive diffusion framework that integrates historical time series and textual events via step-wise diffusion. To mitigate the imbalanced denoising difficulty of uniform timestep sampling, EventTSF uses an event-aware flow-matching timestep conditioned on event semantics. Extensive experiments on 7 synthetic and real-world datasets show that EventTSF outperforms 12 non-stationary time series forecasting baselines, achieving average gains of 41.3% in probabilistic forecasting and 27.5% in deterministic forecasting across all evaluation metrics.
Contrastive learning has become a dominant paradigm for learning time series representations from large-scale unlabeled data. However, current methods are often adapted from computer vision and rely on random time-domain augmentations (e.g., jittering and cropping). Such augmentations can unpredictably disrupt the natural frequency structure of signals, leading to representations failing to capture crucial patterns in the data. To address this, we propose a framework of Frequency-Aware Augmentation and Alignment for Time Series Contrastive Learning (FACL), which comprises two key innovations. First, FACL employs a novel frequency-structured augmentation mechanism based on wavelet transforms. The mechanism constructs controlled and interpretable contrastive views by the structured attenuation and recombination of specific wavelet components. Second, FACL introduces a multi-level contrastive objective that incorporates a subspace alignment strategy. This objective explicitly aligns representations within their corresponding frequency subspaces. Experiments across six forecasting and four classification benchmarks show that FACL achieves superior performance compared to recent baselines. Ablation studies and model analysis highlight the contribution of each component in FACL. Furthermore, low-sample semi-supervised learning experiments confirm the robustness and generalization of FACL.
Time-series forecasting plays an essential role in domains such as finance, healthcare, and energy. Yet most existing systems operate in a unimodal setting, overlooking complementary information available from visual and textual modalities. There are surprisingly few time-series forecasting demos, and multimodal, interpretable demos are rarer still. In practice, it is difficult for users to experiment with foundation models on their own time-series data due to strict input requirements, heavy setup burdens, and limited interpretability support. We present MulTiCast, an interactive Multimodal Time series foreCasting system that enables users to combine numerical signals with visual and textual context to improve predictions. The system builds on pretrained models with lightweight adaptation, but its central contribution lies in the interactive demonstration platform. Through a web interface via Hugging Face Spaces, users can load datasets, toggle modality inclusion, and visualize forecasts together with the attention maps of each modality, providing insights into the reasoning path behind the predictions.
Time series anomaly detection has received substantial attention over the past two decades, leading to the development of hundreds of algorithms. However, comprehensively understanding this vast landscape remains challenging, particularly for non-experts and novices. In this demonstration paper, we present InTimeAD, an interactive web application that provides access to more than 30 state-of-the-art time series anomaly detection algorithms. InTimeAD is intended to explore the performance of existing as well as custom anomaly detection models in an interactive, hands-on manner. By lowering the entry bar, we support practitioners overwhelmed by the large number of existing techniques, while providing a platform for researchers to rapidly analyze their novel anomaly detection algorithms.
CompRestacking: Capturing Channel Dependency in Highly Correlated Multivariate Time Series Data (Student Abstract)
PDF ↗The consideration of channel correlation is crucial for improving the performance of multivariate time series forecasting. However, existing models fail to capture it in homogeneous and highly correlated channels. In this work, we introduce CompRestacking (Compression Restacking), a strikingly intuitive and effective method to address this problem. The approach consists of three main components: (1) PCC-Restacking for correlation-aware channel ordering, (2) Temporal embedding for time encoding, and (3) Aggregation compression for compact token generation. CompRestacking consistently outperforms in experiment results. The results demonstrate that CompRestacking leverages strong channel correlations for improved performance.
Context-Aware Diffusion for Telemetry Time Series with Permutation-Stable Feature Modeling (Student Abstract)
PDF ↗We present a context-aware diffusion model for multivariate time series generation in dynamic and partially observed environments, with applications to data-center computing node's telemetry and beyond. The model integrates pretrained textual embeddings to represent feature semantics, enabling flexible, context-guided generation and improved adaptability to unseen or re-ordered input features. Built on a transformer architecture, it employs both time-wise and feature-wise masking to support missing data during training and inference. We show that the model is robust to permutations with respect to the feature dimension, mantaining stable performance in settings where input configurations vary. Empirical evaluations on HPC sensor data illustrate the model’s versatility across generation and imputation tasks. This work introduces a modular and generalizable framework for time series modeling in complex, high-dimensional systems which can serve as a digital-twin for data-center's compute node telemetry.
Time-Series Anomaly Detection with Graph-Based Self-Supervised Learning and Foundation Models: Towards Real-World Applications
PDF ↗Time-series data, which represent the evolution of one or more variables over time, are ubiquitous across domains such as finance, medicine, industry, and security. Time-Series Anomaly Detection (TSAD) is essential for identifying irregular events such as equipment failures, fraudulent activities, and neurological disorders. Despite significant progress, TSAD remains challenging due to the complexity of time-series signals, the diversity of anomaly types, and the scarcity of high-quality labeled data. This thesis contributes: (i) the first comprehensive surveys of Graph-based TSAD (G-TSAD) and Self-Supervised Learning for Anomaly Detection (SSL-AD), showing how graph modeling and SSL proxy tasks yield robust representations for TSAD while mapping limits and future directions; (ii) EEG-CGS, a contrastive–generative SSL framework that encodes fine-grained subgraph structure without anomaly labels, improving multivariate TSAD and localizing anomalous sensors and regions; (iii) TSAD-C, which integrates graph representations with diffusion models to capture long-range temporal and spatial dependencies while explicitly handling contaminated training data; and (iv) extending TSAD beyond benchmark datasets into other impactful domains, and developing foundation models specialized for biosignals to detect novel anomalies in drug-resistant epilepsy patients.
GAICo: A Deployed and Extensible Framework for Evaluating Diverse and Multimodal Generative AI Outputs
PDF ↗The rapid proliferation of Generative AI (GenAI) into diverse, high-stakes domains necessitates robust and reproducible evaluation methods. However, practitioners often resort to ad-hoc, non-standardized scripts, as common metrics are often unsuitable for specialized, structured outputs (e.g., automated plans, time-series) or holistic comparison across modalities (e.g., text, audio, and image). This fragmentation hinders comparability and slows AI system development. To address this challenge, we present GAICo (Generative AI Comparator): a deployed, open-source Python library that streamlines and standardizes GenAI output comparison. GAICo provides a unified, extensible framework supporting a comprehensive suite of reference-based metrics for unstructured text, specialized structured data formats, and multimedia (images, audio). Its architecture features a high-level API for rapid, end-to-end analysis, from multi-model comparison to visualization and reporting, alongside direct metric access for granular control. We demonstrate GAICo's utility through a detailed case study evaluating and debugging complex, multi-modal AI Travel Assistant pipelines. GAICo empowers AI researchers and developers to efficiently assess system performance, make evaluation reproducible, improve development velocity, and ultimately build more trustworthy AI systems, aligning with the goal of moving faster and safer in AI deployment. Since its release on PyPI in Jun 2025, the tool has been downloaded over 16K times, across versions, by Dec 2025, demonstrating growing community interest.
Numerous social movements (SMs) around the world help support the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Understanding how key events shape SMs is key to the achievement of the SDGs. We have developed SMART (Social Media Analysis & Reasoning Tool) to track social movements related to the SDGs. SMART was designed by a multidisciplinary team of AI researchers, journalists, communications scholars and legal experts. This paper describes SMART's transformer-based multivariate time series Discourse Evolution Engine for Predictions about Social Movements (DEEP) to predict the volume of future articles/posts and the emotions expressed. DEEP outputs probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty estimates, providing critical support for editorial planning and strategic decision-making. We evaluate DEEP with a case study of the #MeToo movement by creating a novel longitudinal dataset (433K Reddit posts and 121K news articles) from September 2024 to June 2025, which is publicly available for research purposes.
In the user growth scenario, Internet companies invest heavily in paid acquisition channels to acquire new users. But sustainable growth depends on acquired users' generating lifetime value (LTV) exceeding customer acquisition cost (CAC). In order to maximize LTV/CAC ratio, it is crucial to predict channel-level LTV in an early stage for further optimization of budget allocation. The LTV forecasting problem is significantly different from traditional time series forecasting problems, and there are three main challenges. Firstly, it is an unaligned multi-time series forecasting problem that each channel has a number of LTV series of different activation dates. Secondly, to predict in the early stage, it faces the imbalanced short-input long-output (SILO) challenge. Moreover, compared with the commonly used time series datasets, the real LTV series are volatile and non-stationary, with more frequent fluctuations and higher variance. In this work, we propose a novel framework called Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion (TTF) to address the above challenges. We introduce a trapezoidal multi-time series module to deal with data unalignment and SILO challenges, and output accurate predictions with a multi-tower structure called MT-FusionNet. The framework has been deployed to the online system for Douyin. Compared to the previously deployed online model, MAPE_p decreased by 4.3%, and MAPE_a decreased by 3.2%, where MAPE_p denotes the point-wise MAPE of the LTV curve and MAPE_a denotes the MAPE of the aggregated LTV.
LiBrain: LLM-Powered Li-ion Battery Diagnostics with Time-Series-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Framework for E-bikes
PDF ↗The rapid proliferation of smart-city ecosystems has significantly amplified the demand for Li-ion batteries, which now serve as the primary energy source for sustainable transportation systems such as e-bikes. Ensuring battery safety and optimal performance is crucial, yet challenging due to complex intrinsic dynamics and extrinsic operating conditions. This paper presents LiBrain, an innovative LLM-powered, time-series-aware retrieval-augmented framework designed to simultaneously address both safety and performance challenges through three synergistic components: (1) a distributed IoT-enabled edge network for continuous real-time battery monitoring and data acquisition, (2) a pretrained deep multi-task diagnostic engine capable of comprehensive battery performance forecasting, and (3) a knowledge-base augmentation module that transforms technical diagnostics into clear, actionable guidance tailored for e-bike users. Functioning as an intelligent battery management assistant, LiBrain effectively bridges the gap between expert-level real-time analytics and practical, user-friendly instructions. Extensive validation across a real-world operational e-bike battery-swap network demonstrates LiBrain's exceptional capabilities, achieving a 95% adoption rate in hazardous alarm detection and 92% in battery-status prediction. In real application, Li-Brain has processed over 500 million battery events, managed almost 10 million inquiries and 1 million alarms annually, and identified 10% of on-site batteries daily for proactive replacement, thereby maintaining operational safety and reliability.