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Applications · Time Series

Xinyu Li, Yuchen Luo, Hao Wang, Haoxuan Li, Liuhua Peng, Feng Liu, Yandong Guo, Kun Zhang, Mingming Gong

Recent booming time series models have demonstrated remarkable forecasting performance. However, these methods often place greater focus on more effectively modelling the historical series, largely neglecting the forecasting phase, which generates long-term forecasts by separately predicting multiple time points. Given that real-world time series typically consist of various long short-term dynamics, independent predictions over individual time points may fail to express complex underlying patterns and can lead to a lack of global views. To address these issues, this work explores new perspectives from the forecasting phase and proposes a novel Implicit Forecaster (IF) as an additional decoding module. Inspired by decomposition forecasting, IF adopts a more nuanced approach by implicitly predicting constituent waves represented by their frequency, amplitude, and phase, thereby accurately forming the time series. Extensive experimental results from multiple real-world datasets show that IF can consistently boost mainstream time series models, achieving state-of-the-art forecasting performance. Code is available at this repository: [https://github.com/rakuyorain/Implicit-Forecaster](https://github.com/rakuyorain/Implicit-Forecaster).

Reinforcement Learning · Batch Offline

Nicolas Le Roux, Marc Bellemare, Jonathan Lebensold, Arnaud Bergeron, Joshua Greaves, Alexandre Fréchette, Carolyne Pelletier, Eric Thibodeau-Laufer, Sándor Tóth, Sam Work

We propose a new algorithm for fine-tuning large language models using reinforcement learning. Tapered Off-Policy REINFORCE (TOPR) uses an asymmetric, tapered variant of importance sampling to speed up learning while maintaining stable learning dynamics, even without the use of KL regularization. TOPR can be applied in a fully offline fashion, allows the handling of positive and negative examples in a unified framework, and benefits from the implementational simplicity that is typical of Monte Carlo algorithms. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with a series of experiments on the GSM8K and MATH reasoning benchmarks, finding performance gains for training both a model for solution generation and as a generative verifier. We show that properly leveraging positive and negative examples alike in the off-policy regime simultaneously increases test-time accuracy and training data efficiency, all the while avoiding the ``wasted inference'' that comes with discarding negative examples. We find that this advantage persists over multiple iterations of training and can be amplified by dataset curation techniques, enabling us to match 70B-parameter model performance with 8B language models. As a corollary to this work, we find that REINFORCE's baseline parameter plays an important and unexpected role in defining dataset composition in the presence of negative examples, and is consequently critical in driving off-policy performance.

Applications · Time Series

Jialin Chen, Ziyu Zhao, Gaukhar Nurbek, Aosong Feng, Ali Maatouk, Leandros Tassiulas, Yifeng Gao, Rex Ying

The ubiquity of dynamic data in domains such as weather, healthcare, and energy underscores a growing need for effective interpretation and retrieval of time-series data. These data are inherently tied to domain-specific contexts, such as clinical notes or weather narratives, making cross-modal retrieval essential not only for downstream tasks but also for developing robust time-series foundation models by retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Despite the increasing demand, time-series retrieval remains largely underexplored. Existing methods often lack semantic grounding, struggle to align heterogeneous modalities, and have limited capacity for handling multi-channel signals. To address this gap, we propose TRACE, a generic multimodal retriever that grounds time-series embeddings in aligned textual context. TRACE enables fine-grained channel-level alignment and employs hard negative mining to facilitate semantically meaningful retrieval. It supports flexible cross-modal retrieval modes, including Text-to-Timeseries and Timeseries-to-Text, effectively linking linguistic descriptions with complex temporal patterns. By retrieving semantically relevant pairs, TRACE enriches downstream models with informative context, leading to improved predictive accuracy and interpretability. Beyond a static retrieval engine, TRACE also serves as a powerful standalone encoder, with lightweight task-specific tuning that refines context-aware representations while maintaining strong cross-modal alignment. These representations achieve state-of-the-art performance on downstream forecasting and classification tasks. Extensive experiments across multiple domains highlight its dual utility, as both an effective encoder for downstream applications and a general-purpose retriever to enhance time-series models.

Applications · Time Series

Yinghui Liu, Hao Miao, Guojiang Shen, Yan Zhao, Xiangjie Kong, Ivan Lee

Out-of-town trip recommendation aims to generate a sequence of Points of Interest (POIs) for users traveling from their hometowns to previously unvisited regions based on personalized itineraries, e.g., origin, destination, and trip duration. Modeling the complex user preferences--which often exhibit a two-fold nature of static and dynamic interests--is critical for effective recommendations. However, the sparsity of out-of-town check-in data presents significant challenges in capturing such user preferences. Meanwhile, existing methods often conflate the static and dynamic preferences, resulting in suboptimal performance. In this paper, we for the first time systematically study the problem of out-of-town trip recommendation. A novel framework SPOT-Trip is proposed to explicitly learns the dual static-dynamic user preferences. Specifically, to handle scarce data, we construct a POI attribute knowledge graph to enrich the semantic modeling of users’ hometown and out-of-town check-ins, enabling the static preference modeling through attribute relation-aware aggregation. Then, we employ neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to capture the continuous evolution of latent dynamic user preferences and innovatively combine a temporal point process to describe the instantaneous probability of each preference behavior. Further, a static-dynamic fusion module is proposed to merge the learned static and dynamic user preferences. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness of the proposed solutions, showing that SPOT-Trip achieves performance improvement by up to 17.01%.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Qianyue Hao, Yiwen Song, Qingmin Liao, Jian Yuan, Yong Li

Policy exploration is critical in reinforcement learning (RL), where existing approaches include $\epsilon$-greedy, Gaussian process, etc. However, these approaches utilize preset stochastic processes and are indiscriminately applied in all kinds of RL tasks without considering task-specific features that influence policy exploration. Moreover, during RL training, the evolution of such stochastic processes is rigid, which typically only incorporates a decay in the variance, failing to adjust flexibly according to the agent's real-time learning status. Inspired by the analyzing and reasoning capability of large language models (LLMs), we design **LLM-Explorer** to adaptively generate task-specific exploration strategies with LLMs, enhancing the policy exploration in RL. In our design, we sample the learning trajectory of the agent during the RL training in a given task and prompt the LLM to analyze the agent's current policy learning status and then generate a probability distribution for future policy exploration. Updating the probability distribution periodically, we derive a stochastic process specialized for the particular task and dynamically adjusted to adapt to the learning process. Our design is a plug-in module compatible with various widely applied RL algorithms, including the DQN series, DDPG, TD3, and any possible variants developed based on them. Through extensive experiments on the Atari and MuJoCo benchmarks, we demonstrate LLM-Explorer's capability to enhance RL policy exploration, achieving an average performance improvement up to 37.27%. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/LLM-Explorer for reproducibility.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Jinwoo Kim, Max Beier, Petar Bevanda, Nayun Kim, Seunghoon Hong

A key question in sequence modeling with neural networks is how to represent and learn highly nonlinear and probabilistic state dynamics. Operator theory views such dynamics as linear maps on Hilbert spaces containing mean embedding vectors of distributions, offering an appealing but currently overlooked perspective. We propose a new approach to sequence modeling based on an operator-theoretic view of a hidden Markov model (HMM). Instead of materializing stochastic recurrence, we embed the full sequence distribution as a tensor in the product Hilbert space. A generative process is then defined as maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) gradient flow in the space of sequences. To overcome challenges with large tensors and slow sampling convergence, we introduce spectral mean flows, a novel tractable algorithm integrating two core concepts. First, we propose a new neural architecture by leveraging spectral decomposition of linear operators to derive a scalable tensor network decomposition of sequence mean embeddings. Second, we extend MMD gradient flows to time-dependent Hilbert spaces and connect them to flow matching via the continuity equation, enabling simulation-free learning and faster sampling. We demonstrate competitive results on a range of time-series modeling datasets.

Computer Vision · Image and Video Generation

Peter Kocsis, Lukas Höllein, Matthias Niessner

We introduce IntrinsiX, a novel method that generates high-quality intrinsic images from text description. In contrast to existing text-to-image models whose outputs contain baked-in scene lighting, our approach predicts physically-based rendering (PBR) maps. This enables the generated outputs to be used for content creation scenarios in core graphics applications that facilitate re-lighting, editing, and texture generation tasks. In order to train our generator, we exploit strong image priors, and pre-train separate models for each PBR material component (albedo, roughness, metallic, normals). We then align these models with a new cross-intrinsic attention formulation that concatenates key and value features in a consistent fashion. This allows us to exchange information between each output modality and to obtain semantically coherent PBR predictions. To ground each intrinsic component, we propose a rendering loss which provides image-space signals to constrain the model, thus facilitating sharp details also in the output BRDF properties. Our results demonstrate detailed intrinsic generation with strong generalization capabilities that outperforms existing intrinsic image decomposition methods used with generated images by a significant margin. Finally, we show a series of applications, including re-lighting, editing, and for the first time text-conditioned room-scale PBR texture generation. We will release the code and the pre-trained model weights.

Applications · Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Lisa Schmors, Dominic Gonschorek, Jan Niklas Böhm, Yongrong Qiu, Na Zhou, Dmitry Kobak, Andreas Tolias, Fabian Sinz, Jacob Reimer, Katrin Franke 等

Modern neural recording techniques such as two-photon imaging or Neuropixel probes allow to acquire vast time-series datasets with responses of hundreds or thousands of neurons. Contrastive learning is a powerful self-supervised framework for learning representations of complex datasets. Existing applications for neural time series rely on generic data augmentations and do not exploit the multi-trial data structure inherent in many neural datasets. Here we present TRACE, a new contrastive learning framework that averages across different subsets of trials to generate positive pairs. TRACE allows to directly learn a two-dimensional embedding, combining ideas from contrastive learning and neighbor embeddings. We show that TRACE outperforms other methods, resolving fine response differences in simulated data. Further, using in vivo recordings, we show that the representations learned by TRACE capture both biologically relevant continuous variation, cell-type-related cluster structure, and can assist data quality control.

Applications · Time Series

Weiyang Zhang, Xinyang Chen, Xiucheng Li, Kehai Chen, Weili Guan, Liqiang Nie

With the increasing number of time series pre-trained models, designing transferability evaluation metrics for time series has become an urgent problem to address. While transferability evaluation has been extensively studied in computer vision, we aim to address a critical gap by developing tailored metrics for time series analysis. In this paper, we introduce TEMPLATE, a transferability estimation framework specifically tailored for versatile time series analysis, comprising three complementary metrics: (1) Dependency Learning Score quantifies a model’s capacity to capture temporal dependencies. (2) Pattern Learning Score evaluates the representation quality in extracting discriminative temporal patterns. (3) Task Adaptation Score assesses cross-task generalization capability, enabling versatile time series analysis. TEMPLATE presents a versatile framework compatible with both classification and regression paradigms. Through comprehensive benchmarking across five distinct downstream tasks, our method demonstrates superior capability in identifying optimal pre-trained models from heterogeneous model pools for transfer learning. Compared to the state-of-the-art method ETran, our approach improves the weighted Kendall's $\tau_w$ across five downstream tasks by 35\%. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TEMPLATE-A0AA/.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Zhi Wen Soi, Chaoyi Zhu, Fouad Abiad, Aditya Shankar, Jeroen Galjaard, Huijuan Wang, Lydia Chen

Synthetic time series generated by diffusion models enable sharing privacy-sensitive datasets, such as patients' functional MRI records. Key criteria for synthetic data include high data utility and traceability to verify the data source. Recent watermarking methods embed in homogeneous latent spaces, but state-of-the-art time series generators operate in data space, making latent-based watermarking incompatible. This creates the challenge of watermarking directly in data space while handling feature heterogeneity and temporal dependencies. We propose TimeWak, the first watermarking algorithm for multivariate time series diffusion models. To handle temporal dependence and spatial heterogeneity, TimeWak embeds a temporal chained-hashing watermark directly within the temporal-feature data space. The other unique feature is the $\epsilon$-exact inversion, which addresses the non-uniform reconstruction error distribution across features from inverting the diffusion process to detect watermarks. We derive the error bound of inverting multivariate time series while preserving robust watermark detectability. We extensively evaluate TimeWak on its impact on synthetic data quality, watermark detectability, and robustness under various post-editing attacks, against five datasets and baselines of different temporal lengths. Our results show that TimeWak achieves improvements of 61.96% in context-FID score, and 8.44% in correlational scores against the strongest state-of-the-art baseline, while remaining consistently detectable.

Applications · Health

David Dai, Peilin Chen, Chanakya Ekbote, Paul Liang

Clinical decision‑making routinely demands reasoning over heterogeneous data, yet existing multimodal language models (MLLMs) remain largely vision‑centric and fail to generalize across clinical specialties. To bridge this gap, we introduce QoQ-Med-7B/32B, the first open generalist clinical foundation model that jointly reasons across medical images, time‑series signals, and text reports. QoQ-Med is trained with Domain‑aware Relative Policy Optimization (DRPO), a novel reinforcement‑learning objective that hierarchically scales normalized rewards according to domain rarity and modality difficulty, mitigating performance imbalance caused by skewed clinical data distributions. Trained on 2.61 million instruction tuning pairs spanning 9 clinical domains, we show that DRPO training boosts diagnostic performance by 43% in macro‑F1 on average across all visual domains as compared to other critic-free training methods like GRPO. Furthermore, with QoQ-Med trained on intensive segmentation data, it is able to highlight salient regions related to the diagnosis, with an IoU 10x higher than open models while reaching the performance of OpenAI o4-mini. To foster reproducibility and downstream research, we release (i) the full model weights, (ii) the modular training pipeline, and (iii) all intermediate reasoning traces.

Theory · Learning Theory

Wei Shi, Yuan Cao

Transformers have proven highly effective across various applications, especially in handling sequential data such as natural languages and time series. However, transformer models often lack clear interpretability, and the success of transformers has not been well understood in theory. In this paper, we study the capability and interpretability of transformers in learning a family of classic statistical models, namely random walks on circles. We theoretically demonstrate that, after training with gradient descent, a one-layer transformer model can achieve optimal accuracy in predicting random walks. Importantly, our analysis reveals that the trained model is interpretable: the trained softmax attention serves as a token selector, focusing on the direct parent state; subsequently, the value matrix executes a one-step probability transition to predict the location of the next state based on this parent state. We also show that certain edge cases not covered by our theory are indeed failure cases, demonstrating that our theoretical conditions are tight. By investigating these success and failure cases, it is revealed that gradient descent with small initialization may fail or struggle to converge to a good solution in certain simple tasks even beyond random walks. Experiments are conducted to support our theoretical findings.

General Machine Learning · Causality

Tian Gao, Songtao Lu, Junkyu Lee, Elliot Nelson, Debarun Bhattacharjya, Yue Yu, Miao Liu

Causal discovery in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) for dynamic time series data has been widely studied in various applications. Much of the existing work has focused on observational, offline, and/or stationary settings. In this work, we propose a dynamic DAG discovery algorithm, Meta-D$^2$AG, based on online meta-learning. Meta-D$^2$AG is designed to learn dynamic DAG structures from potentially nonlinear and non-stationary times series datasets, accounting for changes in both parameters and graph structures. Notably, Meta-D$^2$AG explicitly treats data collected at different time points with distribution shifts as distinct domains, which is assumed to occur as a result of external interventions. Moreover, Meta-D$^2$AG contains a new online meta-learning framework to take advantage of the temporal transition among existing domains such that it can quickly adapt to new domains with few measurements. A first-order optimization approach is utilized to efficiently solve the meta-learning framework, and theoretical analysis establishes the identifiability conditions and the convergence of the learning process. We demonstrate the promising performance of our method through better accuracy and sample efficiency on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art baselines.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Yuanpei Gao, Qi Yan, Yan Leng, Renjie Liao

While deep learning methods have achieved strong performance in time series prediction, their black-box nature and inability to explicitly model underlying stochastic processes often limit their robustness handling non-stationary data, especially in the presence of abrupt changes. In this work, we introduce Neural MJD, a neural network based non-stationary Merton jump diffusion (MJD) model. Our model explicitly formulates forecasting as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) simulation problem, combining a time-inhomogeneous Itô diffusion to capture non-stationary stochastic dynamics with a time-inhomogeneous compound Poisson process to model abrupt jumps. To enable tractable learning, we introduce a likelihood truncation mechanism that caps the number of jumps within small time intervals and provide a theoretical error bound for this approximation. Additionally, we propose an Euler-Maruyama with restart solver, which achieves a provably lower error bound in estimating expected states and reduced variance compared to the standard solver. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Neural MJD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning and statistical learning methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/DSL-Lab/neural-MJD.

Social Aspects · Accountability, Transparency and Interpretability

Viet-Hung Tran, Ngoc Phu Doan, Zichi Zhang, Tuan Pham, Phi Hung Nguyen, Xuan Hoang Nguyen, Hans Vandierendonck, Ira Assent, Thai Son Mai

Deep learning models for time series classification (TSC) have achieved impressive performance, but explaining their decisions remains a significant challenge. Existing post-hoc explanation methods typically operate solely in the time domain and from a single-view perspective, limiting both faithfulness and robustness. In this work, we propose MIX (Multi-view Time-Frequency Interactive EXplanation Framework), a novel framework that helps to explain deep learning models in a multi-view setting by leveraging multi-resolution, time-frequency views constructed using the Haar Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). MIX introduces an interactive cross-view refinement scheme, where explanation's information from one view is propagated across views to enhance overall interpretability. To align with user-preferred perspectives, we propose a greedy selection strategy that traverses the multi-view space to identify the most informative features. Additionally, we present OSIGV, a user-aligned segment-level attribution mechanism based on overlapping windows for each view, and introduce keystone-first IG, a method that refines explanations in each view using additional information from another view. Extensive experiments across multiple TSC benchmarks and model architectures demonstrate that MIX significantly outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods in terms of explanation faithfulness and robustness.

Data-centric AI · Data-centric AI methods and tools

Muyao Wang, Zeke Xie, Bo Chen, Hongwei Liu, James Kwok

The influence function serves as an efficient post-hoc interpretability tool that quantifies the impact of training data modifications on model parameters, enabling enhanced model performance, improved generalization, and interpretability insights without the need for expensive retraining processes. Recently, Multivariate Time Series (MTS) analysis has become an important yet challenging task, attracting significant attention. While channel extremely matters to MTS tasks, channel-centric methods are still largely under-explored for MTS. Particularly, no previous work studied the effects of channel information of MTS in order to explore counterfactual effects between these channels and model performance. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Channel-wise Influence (ChInf) method that is the first to estimate the influence of different channels in MTS. Based on ChInf, we naturally derived two channel-wise algorithms by incorporating ChInf into classic MTS tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of ChInf and ChInf-based methods in critical MTS analysis tasks, such as MTS anomaly detection and MTS data pruning. Specifically, our ChInf-based methods rank top-1 among all methods for comparison, while previous influence functions do not perform well on MTS anomaly detection tasks and MTS data pruning problem. This fully supports the superiority and necessity of ChInf.

Theory · Everything Else

Mario Morawski, Anaïs Després, Remi Rehm

Sequential data—ranging from financial time series to natural language—has driven the growing adoption of autoregressive models. However, these algorithms rely on the presence of underlying patterns in the data, and their identification often depends heavily on human expertise. Misinterpreting these patterns can lead to model misspecification, resulting in increased generalization error and degraded performance. The recently proposed $\texttt{evolving pattern (EvoRate)}$ metric addresses this by using the mutual information between the next data point and its past to guide regression order estimation and feature selection. Building on this idea, we introduce a general framework based on predictive information—the mutual information between the past and the future, $\mathbf{I}(X_{\text{past}}; X_{\text{future}})$. This quantity naturally defines an information-theoretic learning curve, which quantifies the amount of predictive information available as the observation window grows. Using this formalism, we show that the presence or absence of temporal patterns fundamentally constrains the learnability of sequential models: even an optimal predictor cannot outperform the intrinsic information limit imposed by the data. We validate our framework through experiments on synthetic data, demonstrating its ability to assess model adequacy, quantify the inherent complexity of a dataset, and reveal interpretable structure in sequential data.

Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Zhichao Chen, Xu Chen, Qingyang Dai, Lei Wang, Haoxuan Li, Zhouchen Lin

Training time-series forecast models presents unique challenges in designing effective learning objectives. Existing methods predominantly utilize the temporal mean squared error, which faces two critical challenges: (1) label autocorrelation, which leads to bias from the label sequence likelihood; (2) excessive amount of tasks, which increases with the forecast horizon and complicates optimization. To address these challenges, we propose Time-o1, a transformation-augmented learning objective for training time-series forecasting models. The central idea is to transform the label sequence into decorrelated components with discriminated significance. Models are then trained to align the most significant components, thereby effectively mitigating label autocorrelation and reducing task amount. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-o1 achieves state-of-the-art performance and is compatible with various forecast models. Code is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Time-o1.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Aleksandar Terzic, Nicolas Menet, Michael Hersche, Thomas Hofmann, Abbas Rahimi

Modern state-space models (SSMs) often utilize structured transition matrices which enable efficient computation but pose restrictions on the model’s expressivity, as measured in terms of the ability to emulate finite-state automata (FSA). While unstructured transition matrices are optimal in terms of expressivity, they come at a prohibitively high compute and memory cost, even for moderate state sizes. We propose a structured sparse parametrization of transition matrices in SSMs that enables FSA state tracking with provably optimal state size and depth, while keeping the computational cost of the recurrence comparable to that of diagonal SSMs. Our method, \emph{PD-SSM}, parametrizes the transition matrix as the product of a column one-hot matrix ($P$) and a complex-valued diagonal matrix ($D$). As a result, the computational cost of parallel scans scales linearly with the state size. Theoretically, the model is BIBO-stable and can emulate any $N$-state FSA with one layer of dimension $N$ and a linear readout of size $N ×N$, significantly improving on all current structured SSM guarantees. Experimentally, the model significantly outperforms a wide collection of modern SSM variants on various FSA state tracking tasks. On multivariate time-series classification, it outperforms neural controlled differential equations, a paradigm explicitly built for time-series analysis. Finally, we integrate PD-SSM into a hybrid Transformer-SSM architecture and demonstrate that the model can effectively track the states of a complex FSA in which transitions are encoded into sets of variable-length English sentences. The code is available at https://github.com/IBM/expressive-sparse-state-space-model.

Applications · Time Series

Jaebin Lee, Hankook Lee

In machine learning, effective modeling requires a holistic consideration of how to encode inputs, make predictions (i.e., decoding), and train the model. However, in time-series forecasting, prior work has predominantly focused on encoder design, often treating prediction and training as separate or secondary concerns. In this paper, we propose TimePerceiver, a unified encoder-decoder forecasting framework that is tightly aligned with an effective training strategy. To be specific, we first generalize the forecasting task to include diverse temporal prediction objectives such as extrapolation, interpolation, and imputation. Since this generalization requires handling input and target segments that are arbitrarily positioned along the temporal axis, we design a novel encoder-decoder architecture that can flexibly perceive and adapt to these varying positions. For encoding, we introduce a set of latent bottleneck representations that can interact with all input segments to jointly capture temporal and cross-channel dependencies. For decoding, we leverage learnable queries corresponding to target timestamps to effectively retrieve relevant information. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework consistently and significantly outperforms prior state-of-the-art baselines across a wide range of benchmark datasets.