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Applications · Language, Speech and Dialog

Hongyi Zhou, Jin Zhu, Pingfan Su, Kai Ye, Ying Yang, Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun, Chengchun Shi

We study the problem of determining whether a piece of text has been authored by a human or by a large language model (LLM). Existing state of the art logits-based detectors make use of statistics derived from the log-probability of the observed text evaluated using the distribution function of a given source LLM. However, relying solely on log probabilities can be sub-optimal. In response, we introduce AdaDetectGPT -- a novel classifier that adaptively learns a witness function from training data to enhance the performance of logits-based detectors. We provide statistical guarantees on its true positive rate, false positive rate, true negative rate and false negative rate. Extensive numerical studies show AdaDetectGPT nearly uniformly improves the state-of-the-art method in various combination of datasets and LLMs, and the improvement can reach up to 37\%. A python implementation of our method is available at https://github.com/Mamba413/AdaDetectGPT.

Applications · Physics

Takeshi Koshizuka, Issei Sato

Physics-informed machine learning is gaining significant traction for enhancing statistical performance and sample efficiency through the integration of physical knowledge. However, current theoretical analyses often presume complete prior knowledge in non-hybrid settings, overlooking the crucial integration of observational data, and are frequently limited to linear systems, unlike the prevalent nonlinear nature of many real-world applications. To address these limitations, we introduce a discrete weak form that unifies collocation and variational methods, enabling the incorporation of incomplete and complex physical constraints in hybrid learning settings. Within this formulation, we establish that the generalization performance of physics-informed regression in such hybrid settings is governed by the dimension of the affine variety associated with the physical constraint, rather than by the number of parameters. This enables a unified analysis that is applicable to both linear and nonlinear equations. We also present a method to approximate this dimension and provide experimental validation of our theoretical findings.

Social Aspects · Fairness, Equity, Justice and Safety

Kevin Zhang, Yonghan Jung, Divyat Mahajan, Karthikeyan Shanmugam, Shalmali Joshi

Identifying and measuring biases associated with sensitive attributes is a crucial consideration in healthcare to prevent treatment disparities. One prominent issue is inaccurate pulse oximeter readings, which tend to overestimate oxygen saturation for dark-skinned patients and misrepresent supplemental oxygen needs. Most existing research has revealed *statistical disparities* linking device measurement errors to patient outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs) without causal formalization. This study *causally* investigates how racial discrepancies in oximetry measurements affect invasive ventilation in ICU settings. We employ a causal inference-based approach using *path-specific effects* to isolate the impact of bias by race on clinical decision-making. To estimate these effects, we leverage a doubly robust estimator, propose its self-normalized variant for improved sample efficiency, and provide novel finite-sample guarantees. Our methodology is validated on semi-synthetic data and applied to two large real-world health datasets: MIMIC-IV and eICU. Contrary to prior work, our analysis reveals minimal impact of racial discrepancies on invasive ventilation rates. However, path-specific effects mediated by oxygen saturation disparity are more pronounced on ventilation duration, and the severity differs by dataset. Our work provides a novel pipeline for investigating potential disparities in clinical decision-making and, more importantly, highlights the necessity of causal methods to robustly assess fairness in healthcare.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

SangYong Lee, Sangjun Chung, Simon Woo

With increasing regulations on private data usage in AI systems, machine unlearning has emerged as a critical solution for selectively removing sensitive information from trained models while preserving their overall utility. While many existing unlearning methods rely on the *retain data* to mitigate the performance decline caused by forgetting, such data may not always be available (*retain-free*) in real-world scenarios. To address this challenge posed by retain-free unlearning, we introduce **RUAGO**, utilizing adversarial soft labels to mitigate over-unlearning and a generative model pretrained on out-of-distribution (OOD) data to effectively distill the original model’s knowledge. We introduce a progressive sampling strategy to incrementally increase synthetic data complexity, coupled with an inversion-based alignment step that ensures the synthetic data closely matches the original training distribution. Our extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets and architectures demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing retain-free methods and achieves comparable or superior performance relative to retain-based approaches, demonstrating its effectiveness and practicality in real-world, data-constrained environments.

jusheng zhang, Kaitong Cai, Yijia Fan, Jian Wang, Keze Wang

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have greatly improved cross-modal semantic understanding, yet significant limitations remain in fine-grained discrimination and deep causal reasoning tasks. Existing VLMs often rely on superficial statistical correlations, lacking the ability to capture the underlying causal logic between visual and textual content. To address this, we propose the **CounterFactual Vision-Language Fine-tuning Model (CF-VLM)**, a novel framework that enhances the causal reasoning capabilities of VLMs through the targeted use of counterfactual samples. CF-VLM introduces three complementary training objectives: maintaining foundational cross-modal alignment, reinforcing the uniqueness, and stability of factual scene representations against coherent counterfactuals, and sharpening the model’s sensitivity to minimal but critical causal edits. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CF-VLM consistently outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods on compositional reasoning and generalization benchmarks. Furthermore, it shows promise in mitigating visual hallucinations, indicating improved factual consistency. Our CF-VLM provides a robust foundation for deploying VLMs in high-stakes, real-world scenarios requiring reliable reasoning and interpretability.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Cheng Yan, Felix Mohr, Tom Viering

Sample-wise learning curves plot performance versus training set size. They are useful for studying scaling laws and speeding up hyperparameter tuning and model selection. Learning curves are often assumed to be well-behaved: monotone (i.e. improving with more data) and convex. By constructing the Learning Curves Database 1.1 (LCDB 1.1), a large-scale database with high-resolution learning curves including more modern learners (CatBoost, TabNet, RealMLP, and TabPFN), we show that learning curves are less often well-behaved than previously thought. Using statistically rigorous methods, we observe significant ill-behavior in approximately 15% of the learning curves, almost twice as much as in previous estimates. We also identify which learners are to blame and show that specific learners are more ill-behaved than others. Additionally, we demonstrate that different feature scalings rarely resolve ill-behavior. We evaluate the impact of ill-behavior on downstream tasks, such as learning curve fitting and model selection, and find it poses significant challenges, underscoring the relevance and potential of LCDB 1.1 as a challenging benchmark for future research.

Applications · Physics

Rishal Aggarwal, Jacky Chen, Nicholas Boffi, David Koes

Efficient sampling from the Boltzmann distribution given its energy function is a key challenge for modeling complex physical systems such as molecules. Boltzmann Generators address this problem by leveraging continuous normalizing flows to transform a simple prior into a distribution that can be reweighted to match the target using sample likelihoods. Despite the elegance of this approach, obtaining these likelihoods requires computing costly Jacobians during integration, which is impractical for large molecular systems. To overcome this difficulty, we train an energy-based model (EBM) to approximate likelihoods using both noise contrastive estimation (NCE) and score matching, which we show outperforms the use of either objective in isolation. On 2D synthetic systems where failure can be easily visualized, NCE improves mode weighting relative to score matching alone. On alanine dipeptide, our method yields free energy profiles and energy distributions that closely match those obtained using exact likelihoods while achieving $100\times$ faster inference. By training on multiple dipeptide systems, we show that our approach also exhibits effective transfer learning, generalizing to new systems at inference time and achieving at least a $6\times$ speedup over standard MD with only a bit of fine-tuning. While many recent efforts in generative modeling have prioritized models with fast sampling, our work demonstrates the design of models with accelerated likelihoods, enabling the application of reweighting schemes that ensure unbiased Boltzmann statistics at scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/RishalAggarwal/BoltzNCE.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Shlomi Hod, Lucas Rosenblatt, Julia Stoyanovich

Differentially private (DP) machine learning often relies on the availability of public data for tasks like privacy-utility trade-off estimation, hyperparameter tuning, and pretraining. While public data assumptions may be reasonable in text and image data, they are less likely to hold for tabular data due to tabular data heterogeneity across domains. We propose leveraging powerful priors to address this limitation; specifically, we synthesize realistic tabular data directly from schema-level specifications -- such as variable names, types, and permissible ranges -- without ever accessing sensitive records. To that end, this work introduces the notion of ``surrogate'' public data -- datasets generated independently of sensitive data, which consume no privacy loss budget and are constructed solely from publicly available schema or metadata. Surrogate public data are intended to encode plausible statistical assumptions (informed by publicly available information) into a dataset with many downstream uses in private mechanisms. We automate the process of generating surrogate public data with large language models (LLMs); in particular, we propose two methods: direct record generation as CSV files, and automated structural causal model (SCM) construction for sampling records. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that surrogate public tabular data can effectively replace traditional public data when pretraining differentially private tabular classifiers. To a lesser extent, surrogate public data are also useful for hyperparameter tuning of DP synthetic data generators, and for estimating the privacy-utility tradeoff.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Shuaiqi Wang, Vikas Raunak, Arturs Backurs, Victor Reis, Pei Zhou, Sihao Chen, Longqi Yang, Zinan Lin, Sergey Yekhanin, Giulia Fanti

Differentially private (DP) synthetic data generation is a promising technique for utilizing private datasets that otherwise cannot be exposed for model training or other analytics. While much research literature has focused on generating private unstructured text and image data, in enterprise settings, structured data (e.g., tabular) is more common, often including natural language fields or components. Existing synthetic data evaluation techniques (e.g., FID) struggle to capture the structural properties and correlations of such datasets. In this work, we propose Struct-Bench, a framework and benchmark for evaluating synthetic datasets derived from structured datasets that contain natural language data. The Struct-Bench framework requires users to provide a representation of their dataset structure as a Context-Free Grammar (CFG). Our benchmark comprises 5 real-world and 2 synthetically generated datasets. We show that these datasets demonstrably present a great challenge even for state-of-the-art DP synthetic data generation methods. Struct-Bench provides reference implementations of different metrics and a leaderboard, offering a standardized platform to benchmark and investigate privacy-preserving synthetic data methods. We also present a case study showing how Struct-Bench improves the synthetic data quality of Private Evolution (PE) on structured data. The benchmark and the leaderboard have been publicly made available at https://struct-bench.github.io.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Fan Mo, Bo Liu, Yuan Fan, Kun Qin, Yizhou Zhao, Jinhe Zhou, Jia Sun, Jinfei Liu, Kui Ren

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies, the demand for training data has surged, exacerbating risks of data leakage. Despite increasing incidents and costs associated with such leaks, data leakage prevention (DLP) technologies lag behind evolving evasion techniques that bypass existing sensitive information recognition (SIR) models. Current datasets lack comprehensive coverage of these adversarial transformations, limiting the evaluation of robust SIR systems. To address this gap, we introduce DataSIR, a benchmark dataset specifically designed to evaluate SIR models on sensitive data subjected to diverse format transformations. We curate 26 sensitive data categories based on multiple international regulations, and collect 131,890 original samples correspondingly. Through empirical analysis of real-world evasion tactics, we implement 21 format transformation methods, which are applied to the original samples, expanding the dataset to 1,647,501 samples to simulate adversarial scenarios. We evaluated DataSIR using four traditional NLP models and four large language models (LLMs). For LLMs, we design structured prompts with varying degrees of contextual hints to assess the impact of prior knowledge on recognition accuracy. These evaluations demonstrate that our dataset effectively differentiates the performance of various SIR algorithms. Combined with its rich category and format diversity, the dataset can serve as a benchmark for evaluating related models and help develop future more advanced SIR models. Our dataset and experimental code are publicly available at https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/fanmo1/datasir and https://github.com/Fan-Mo-ZJU/DataSIR.

Social Aspects

Alexandra Olteanu, Su Lin Blodgett, Agathe Balayn, Angelina Wang, Fernando Diaz, Flavio Calmon, Margaret Mitchell, Michael Ekstrand, Reuben Binns, Solon Barocas

In AI research and practice, rigor remains largely understood in terms of methodological rigor---such as whether mathematical, statistical, or computational methods are correctly applied. We argue that this narrow conception of rigor has contributed to the concerns raised by the responsible AI community, including overblown claims about the capabilities of AI systems. Our position is that a broader conception of what rigorous AI research and practice should entail is needed. We believe such a conception---in addition to a more expansive understanding of 1) methodological rigor---should include aspects related to 2) what background knowledge informs what to work on (epistemic rigor); 3) how disciplinary, community, or personal norms, standards, or beliefs influence the work (normative rigor); 4) how clearly articulated the theoretical constructs under use are (conceptual rigor); 5) what is reported and how (reporting rigor); and 6) how well-supported the inferences from existing evidence are (interpretative rigor). In doing so, we also provide useful language and a framework for much needed dialogue about the AI community's work by researchers, policymakers, journalists, and other stakeholders.

Theory · Learning Theory

Alberto González-Sanz, François Bachoc, Jean-Michel Loubes, Louis Béthune

The distribution regression problem encompasses many important statistics and machine learning tasks, and arises in a large range of applications. Among various existing approaches to tackle this problem, kernel methods have become a method of choice. Indeed, kernel distribution regression is both computationally favorable, and supported by a recent learning theory. This theory also tackles the two-stage sampling setting, where only samples from the input distributions are available. In this paper, we improve the learning theory of kernel distribution regression. We address kernels based on Hilbertian embeddings, that encompass most, if not all, of the existing approaches. We introduce the novel near-unbiased condition on the Hilbertian embeddings, that enables us to provide new error bounds on the effect of the two-stage sampling, thanks to a new analysis. We show that this near-unbiased condition holds for three important classes of kernels, based on optimal transport and mean embedding. As a consequence, we strictly improve the existing convergence rates for these kernels. Our setting and results are illustrated by numerical experiments.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Yujie Zhu, Charles Hepburn, Matthew Thorpe, Giovanni Montana

In reinforcement learning with sparse rewards, demonstrations can accelerate learning, but determining when to imitate them remains challenging. We propose Smooth Policy Regularisation from Demonstrations (SPReD), a framework that addresses the fundamental question: when should an agent imitate a demonstration versus follow its own policy? SPReD uses ensemble methods to explicitly model Q-value distributions for both demonstration and policy actions, quantifying uncertainty for comparisons. We develop two complementary uncertainty-aware methods: a probabilistic approach estimating the likelihood of demonstration superiority, and an advantage-based approach scaling imitation by statistical significance. Unlike prevailing methods (e.g. Q-filter) that make binary imitation decisions, SPReD applies continuous, uncertainty-proportional regularisation weights, reducing gradient variance during training. Despite its computational simplicity, SPReD achieves remarkable gains in experiments across eight robotics tasks, outperforming existing approaches by up to a factor of 14 in complex tasks while maintaining robustness to demonstration quality and quantity. Our code is available at https://github.com/YujieZhu7/SPReD.

Quentin Bertrand, Anne Gagneux, Mathurin Massias, Rémi Emonet

Modern deep generative models can now produce high-quality synthetic samples that are often indistinguishable from real training data. A growing body of research aims to understand why recent methods, such as diffusion and flow matching techniques, generalize so effectively. Among the proposed explanations are the inductive biases of deep learning architectures and the stochastic nature of the conditional flow matching loss. In this work, we rule out the noisy nature of the loss as a key factor driving generalization in flow matching. First, we empirically show that in high-dimensional settings, the stochastic and closed-form versions of the flow matching loss yield nearly equivalent losses. Then, using state-of-the-art flow matching models on standard image datasets, we demonstrate that both variants achieve comparable statistical performance, with the surprising observation that using the closed-form can even improve performance.

Antonio Orvieto, Robert Gower

Understanding the remarkable efficacy of Adam when training transformer-based language models has become a central research topic within the optimization community. To gain deeper insights, several simplifications of Adam have been proposed, such as the signed gradient and signed momentum methods. In this work, we conduct an extensive empirical study — training over 1,500 language models across different data configurations and scales — comparing Adam to several known simplified variants. We find that signed momentum methods are faster than SGD, but consistently underperform relative to Adam, even after careful tuning of momentum, clipping setting and learning rates. However, our analysis reveals a compelling option that preserves near-optimal performance while allowing for new insightful reformulations: constraining the Adam momentum parameters to be equal, $\beta_1=\beta_2$. Beyond robust performance, this choice affords new theoretical insights, highlights the "secret sauce" on top of signed momentum, and grants a precise statistical interpretation: we show that Adam in this setting implements a natural online algorithm for estimating the mean and variance of gradients—one that arises from a mean-field Gaussian variational inference perspective.

Applications · Physics

Ye Zhu, Duo Xu, Zhiwei Deng, Jonathan Tan, Olga Russakovsky

We study Diffusion Schrödinger Bridge (DSB) models in the context of dynamical astrophysical systems, specifically tackling observational inverse prediction tasks within Giant Molecular Clouds (GMCs) for star formation. We introduce the Astro-DSB model, a variant of DSB with the pairwise domain assumption tailored for astrophysical dynamics. By investigating its learning process and prediction performance in both physically simulated data and in real observations (the Taurus B213 data), we present two main takeaways. First, from the astrophysical perspective, our proposed paired DSB method improves interpretability, learning efficiency, and prediction performance over conventional astrostatistical and other machine learning methods. Second, from the generative modeling perspective, probabilistic generative modeling reveals improvements over discriminative pixel-to-pixel modeling in Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) testing cases of physical simulations with unseen initial conditions and different dominant physical processes. Our study expands research into diffusion models beyond the traditional visual synthesis application and provides evidence of the models' learning abilities beyond pure data statistics, paving a path for future physics-aware generative models which can align dynamics between machine learning and real (astro)physical systems.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Bowen Deng, Lele Fu, Sheng Huang, Tianchi Liao, Jialong Chen, Zhang Tao, Chuan Chen

Graph classification has long assumed a closed-world setting, limiting its applicability to real-world scenarios where new categories often emerge. To address this limitation, we introduce Graph-Level Novel Category Discovery (GLNCD), a new task aimed at identifying unseen graph categories without supervision from novel classes. We first adapt classical Novel Category Discovery (NCD) methods for images to the graph domain and evaluate these baseline methods on four diverse graph datasets curated for the GLNCD task. Our analysis reveals that these methods suffer a notable performance degradation compared to their image-based counterparts, due to two key challenges: (1) insufficient utilization of structural information in graph self-supervised learning (SSL), and (2) ineffective pseudo-labeling strategies based on ranking statistics (RS) that neglect graph structure. To alleviate these issues, we propose ProtoFGW-NCD, a framework consisting of two core components: ProtoFGW-CL, a novel graph SSL framework, and FGW-RS, a structure-aware pseudo-labeling method. Both components employ a differentiable Fused Gromov-Wasserstein (FGW) distance to effectively compare graphs by incorporating structural information. These components are built upon learnable prototype graphs, which enable efficient, parallel FGW-based graph comparisons and capture representative patterns within graph datasets. Experiments on four GLNCD benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of ProtoFGW-NCD.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Alexey Kurennoy, Majed Dodin, Tural Gurbanov, Ana Peleteiro Ramallo

The online evaluation of machine learning models is typically conducted through A/B experiments. Sequential statistical tests are valuable tools for analysing these experiments, as they enable researchers to stop data collection early without increasing the risk of false discoveries. However, existing sequential tests either limit the number of interim analyses or suffer from low statistical power. In this paper, we introduce a novel sequential test designed for the continuous monitoring of A/B experiments. We validate our method using semi-synthetic simulations and demonstrate that it outperforms current state-of-the-art sequential testing approaches. Our method is derived using a new technique that inverts a bound on the probability of threshold crossing, based on a classical maximal inequality.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Tianzhe Xiao, Yichen Li, Yining Qi, YI LIU, wangshi.ww, Haozhao Wang, Yi Wang, Ruixuan Li

Multimodal federated learning (MMFL) has gained increasing popularity due to its ability to leverage the correlation between various modalities, meanwhile preserving data privacy for different clients. However, recent studies show that correlation between modalities increase the vulnerability of federated learning against Gradient Inversion Attack (GIA). The complicated situation of MMFL privacy preserving can be summarized as follows: 1) different modality transmits different amounts of information, thus requires various protection strength; 2) correlation between modalities should be taken into account. This paper introduces an information theory perspective to analyze the leaked privacy in process of MMFL, and tries to propose a more reasonable protection method \textbf{Sec-MMFL} based on assessing different information leakage possibilities of each modality by conditional mutual information and adjust the corresponding protection strength. Moreover, we use mutual information to reduce the cross-modality information leakage in MMFL. Experiments have proven that our method can bring more balanced and comprehensive protection at an acceptable cost.

Siu Lun (Alan) Chau, Michele Caprio, Krikamol Muandet

Quantifying differences between probability distributions is fundamental to statistics and machine learning, primarily for comparing statistical uncertainty. In contrast, epistemic uncertainty---due to incomplete knowledge---requires richer representations than those offered by classical probability. Imprecise probability (IP) theory offers such models, capturing ambiguity and partial belief. This has driven growing interest in imprecise probabilistic machine learning (IPML), where inference and decision-making rely on broader uncertainty models---highlighting the need for metrics beyond classical probability. This work introduces the Integral Imprecise Probability Metric (IIPM) framework, a Choquet integral-based generalisation of classical Integral Probability Metric to the setting of capacities---a broad class of IP models encompassing many existing ones, including lower probabilities, probability intervals, belief functions, and more. Theoretically, we establish conditions under which IIPM serves as a valid metric and metrises a form of weak convergence of capacities. Practically, IIPM not only enables comparison across different IP models but also supports the quantification of epistemic uncertainty~(EU) within a single IP model. In particular, by comparing an IP model with its conjugate, IIPM gives rise to a new class of epistemic uncertainty measures---Maximum Mean Imprecision (MMI) ---which satisfy key axiomatic properties proposed in the Uncertainty Quantification literature. We validate MMI through selective classification experiments, demonstrating strong empirical performance against established EU measures, and outperforming them when classical methods struggle to scale to a large number of classes. Our work advances both theory and practice in Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning, offering a principled framework for comparing and quantifying epistemic uncertainty under imprecision.