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Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Christoph Jürgen Hemmer, Manuel Brenner, Florian Hess, Daniel Durstewitz

In dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) we seek to infer from time series measurements a generative model of the underlying dynamical process. This is a prime objective in any scientific discipline, where we are particularly interested in parsimonious models with a low parameter load. A common strategy here is parameter pruning, removing all parameters with small weights. However, here we find this strategy does not work for DSR, where even low magnitude parameters can contribute considerably to the system dynamics. On the other hand, it is well known that many natural systems which generate complex dynamics, like the brain or ecological networks, have a sparse topology with comparatively few links. Inspired by this, we show that *geometric pruning*, where in contrast to magnitude-based pruning weights with a low contribution to an attractor's geometrical structure are removed, indeed manages to reduce parameter load substantially without significantly hampering DSR quality. We further find that the networks resulting from geometric pruning have a specific type of topology, and that this topology, and not the magnitude of weights, is what is most crucial to performance. We provide an algorithm that automatically generates such topologies which can be used as priors for generative modeling of dynamical systems by RNNs, and compare it to other well studied topologies like small-world or scale-free networks.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Shuai Zhang, Chuan Zhou, Yang Liu, PENG ZHANG, Xixun Lin, Zhiming Ma

We present a novel perspective on temporal point processes (TPPs) by reformulating their intensity processes as solutions to stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular, we first prove the equivalent SDE formulations of several classical TPPs, including Poisson processes, Hawkes processes, and self-correcting processes. Based on these proofs, we introduce a unified TPP framework called Neural Jump-Diffusion Temporal Point Process (NJDTPP), whose intensity process is governed by a neural jump-diffusion SDE (NJDSDE) where the drift, diffusion, and jump coefficient functions are parameterized by neural networks. Compared to previous works, NJDTPP exhibits model flexibility in capturing intensity dynamics without relying on any specific functional form, and provides theoretical guarantees regarding the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the proposed NJDSDE. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that NJDTPP is capable of capturing the dynamics of intensity processes in different scenarios and significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art TPP models in prediction tasks.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Maksim Sinelnikov, Manuel Haussmann, Harri Lähdesmäki

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness patterns, and measurement time points can be governed by an unknown stochastic process. While various solutions have been suggested, the majority of them have been designed to account for only one of these challenges. In this work, we propose a flexible and efficient latent-variable model that is capable of addressing all these limitations. Our approach utilizes Gaussian processes to capture correlations between samples and their associated missingness masks as well as to model the underlying point process. We construct our model as a variational autoencoder together with deep neural network parameterised decoder and encoder models, and develop a scalable amortised variational inference approach for efficient model training. We demonstrate competitive performance using both simulated and real datasets.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Shubhanshu Shekhar, Aaditya Ramdas

We consider the problem of sequential change detection under minimal assumptions on the distribution generating the stream of observations. Formally, our goal is to design a scheme for detecting any changes in a parameter or functional $\theta$ of the data stream distribution that has small detection delay, but guarantees control on the frequency of false alarms in the absence of changes. We describe a simple reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences (CSs): begin a new level-$(1-\alpha)$ CS at each time step, and proclaim a change as soon as the intersection of all active CSs becomes empty. We prove that the average run length of our scheme is at least $1/\alpha$, resulting in a change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions (thus allowing for possibly dependent observations, and nonparametric distribution classes), but strong guarantees. We also describe an interesting parallel with Lorden's reduction from change detection to sequential testing and connections to the recent ''e-detector'' framework.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Weijieying Ren, Xiaoting Li, Huiyuan Chen, Vineeth Rakesh, Zhuoyi Wang, Mahashweta Das, Vasant Honavar

We consider the problem of test-time adaptation of predictive models trained on tabular data. Effective solution of this problem requires adaptation of predictive models trained on the source domain to a target domain, using only unlabeled target domain data, without access to source domain data. Existing test-time adaptation methods for tabular data have difficulty coping with the heterogeneous features and their complex dependencies inherent in tabular data. To overcome these limitations, we consider test-time adaptation in the setting wherein the logical structure of the rules is assumed to remain invariant despite distribution shift between source and target domains whereas the numerical parameters associated with the rules and the weights assigned to them can vary to accommodate distribution shift. TabLog discretizes numerical features, models dependencies between heterogeneous features, introduces a novel contrastive loss for coping with distribution shift, and presents an end-to-end framework for efficient training and test-time adaptation by taking advantage of a logical neural network representation of a rule ensemble. We present results of experiments using several benchmark data sets that demonstrate TabLog is competitive with or improves upon the state-of-the-art methods for test-time adaptation of predictive models trained on tabular data. Our code is available at https://github.com/WeijieyingRen/TabLog.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

William Merrill, Jackson Petty, Ashish Sabharwal

State-space models (SSMs) have emerged as a potential alternative architecture for building large language models (LLMs) compared to the previously ubiquitous transformer architecture. One theoretical weakness of transformers is that they cannot express certain kinds of sequential computation and state tracking (Merrill & Sabharwal, 2023), which SSMs are explicitly designed to address via their close architectural similarity to recurrent neural networks (RNNs). *But do SSMs truly have an advantage (over transformers) in expressive power for state tracking?* Surprisingly, the answer is no. Our analysis reveals that the expressive power of SSMs is limited very similarly to transformers: SSMs cannot express computation outside the complexity class $\mathsf{TC}^0$. In particular, this means they cannot solve simple state-tracking problems like permutation composition. It follows that SSMs are provably unable to accurately track chess moves with certain notation, evaluate code, or track entities in a long narrative. To supplement our formal analysis, we report experiments showing that Mamba-style SSMs indeed struggle with state tracking. Thus, despite its recurrent formulation, the "state'' in an SSM is an illusion: SSMs have similar expressiveness limitations to non-recurrent models like transformers, which may fundamentally limit their ability to solve real-world state-tracking problems.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ivan Marisca, Cesare Alippi, Filippo Maria Bianchi

Given a set of synchronous time series, each associated with a sensor-point in space and characterized by inter-series relationships, the problem of spatiotemporal forecasting consists of predicting future observations for each point. Spatiotemporal graph neural networks achieve striking results by representing the relationships across time series as a graph. Nonetheless, most existing methods rely on the often unrealistic assumption that inputs are always available and fail to capture hidden spatiotemporal dynamics when part of the data is missing. In this work, we tackle this problem through hierarchical spatiotemporal downsampling. The input time series are progressively coarsened over time and space, obtaining a pool of representations that capture heterogeneous temporal and spatial dynamics. Conditioned on observations and missing data patterns, such representations are combined by an interpretable attention mechanism to generate the forecasts. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world benchmarks under different missing data distributions, particularly in the presence of contiguous blocks of missing values.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Maude Lizaire, Michael Rizvi-Martel, Marawan Gamal, Guillaume Rabusseau

Second-order Recurrent Neural Networks (2RNNs) extend RNNs by leveraging second-order interactions for sequence modelling. These models are provably more expressive than their first-order counterparts and have connections to well-studied models from formal language theory. However, their large parameter tensor makes computations intractable. To circumvent this issue, one approach known as MIRNN consists in limiting the type of interactions used by the model. Another is to leverage tensor decomposition to diminish the parameter count. In this work, we study the model resulting from parameterizing 2RNNs using the CP decomposition, which we call CPRNN. Intuitively, the rank of the decomposition should reduce expressivity. We analyze how rank and hidden size affect model capacity and show the relationships between RNNs, 2RNNs, MIRNNs, and CPRNNs based on these parameters. We support these results empirically with experiments on the Penn Treebank dataset which demonstrate that, with a fixed parameter budget, CPRNNs outperforms RNNs, 2RNNs, and MIRNNs with the right choice of rank and hidden size.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Deividas Eringis, john leth, Zheng-Hua Tan, Rafal Wisniewski, Mihaly Petreczky

In this paper we derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for a class of stochastic dynamical systems with inputs, namely, for linear time-invariant stochastic state-space models (stochastic LTI systems for short). This class of systems is widely used in control engineering and econometrics, in particular, they represent a special case of recurrent neural networks. In this paper we 1) formalize the learning problem for stochastic LTI systems with inputs, 2) derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for such systems, and 3) discuss various consequences of this error bound.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Jiayi Deng, Xiaodong Yang, Jun Yu, Jun Liu, Zhaiming Shen, Danyang Huang, Huimin Cheng

Conventional community detection methods often categorize all nodes into clusters. However, the presumed community structure of interest may only be valid for a subset of nodes (named as `tight nodes'), while the rest of the network may consist of noninformative ``scattered nodes''. For example, a protein-protein network often contains proteins that do not belong to specific biological functional modules but are involved in more general processes, or act as bridges between different functional modules. Forcing each of these proteins into a single cluster introduces unwanted biases and obscures the underlying biological implication. To address this issue, we propose a tight community detection (TCD) method to identify tight communities excluding scattered nodes. The algorithm enjoys a strong theoretical guarantee of tight node identification accuracy and is scalable for large networks. The superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated by various synthetic and real experiments.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Serina Chang, Frederic Koehler, Zhaonan Qu, Jure Leskovec, Johan Ugander

A common network inference problem, arising from real-world data constraints, is how to infer a dynamic network from its time-aggregated adjacency matrix and time-varying marginals (i.e., row and column sums). Prior approaches to this problem have repurposed the classic iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure, also known as Sinkhorn’s algorithm, with promising empirical results. However, the statistical foundation for using IPF has not been well understood: under what settings does IPF provide principled estimation of a dynamic network from its marginals, and how well does it estimate the network? In this work, we establish such a setting, by identifying a generative network model whose maximum likelihood estimates are recovered by IPF. Our model both reveals implicit assumptions on the use of IPF in such settings and enables new analyses, such as structure-dependent error bounds on IPF’s parameter estimates. When IPF fails to converge on sparse network data, we introduce a principled algorithm that guarantees IPF converges under minimal changes to the network structure. Finally, we conduct experiments with synthetic and real-world data, which demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical and algorithmic contributions.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Yongqiang Cai

In recent years, deep learning-based sequence modelings, such as language models, have received much attention and success, which pushes researchers to explore the possibility of transforming non-sequential problems into a sequential form. Following this thought, deep neural networks can be represented as composite functions of a sequence of mappings, linear or nonlinear, where each composition can be viewed as a word. However, the weights of linear mappings are undetermined and hence require an infinite number of words. In this article, we investigate the finite case and constructively prove the existence of a finite vocabulary $V$=$\phi_i: \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}^d | i=1,...,n$ with $n=O(d^2)$ for the universal approximation. That is, for any continuous mapping $f: \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}^d$, compact domain $\Omega$ and $\varepsilon>0$, there is a sequence of mappings $\phi_{i_1}, ..., \phi_{i_m} \in V, m \in \mathbb{Z}^+$, such that the composition $\phi_{i_m} \circ ... \circ \phi_{i_1} $ approximates $f$ on $\Omega$ with an error less than $\varepsilon$. Our results demonstrate an unusual approximation power of mapping compositions and motivate a novel compositional model for regular languages.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Kethmi Hirushini Hettige, Jiahao Ji, Shili Xiang, Cheng Long, Gao Cong, Jingyuan Wang

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10\%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning. The code is available at: https://github.com/kethmih/AirPhyNet

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Hyunwook Lee, Sungahn Ko

Accurate traffic forecasting is challenging due to the complex dependency on road networks, various types of roads, and the abrupt speed change due to the events. Recent works mainly focus on dynamic spatial modeling with adaptive graph embedding or graph attention having less consideration for temporal characteristics and in-situ modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning model named TESTAM, which individually models recurring and non-recurring traffic patterns by a mixture-of-experts model with three experts on temporal modeling, spatio-temporal modeling with static graph, and dynamic spatio-temporal dependency modeling with dynamic graph. By introducing different experts and properly routing them, TESTAM could better model various circumstances, including spatially isolated nodes, highly related nodes, and recurring and non-recurring events. For the proper routing, we reformulate a gating problem into a classification problem with pseudo labels. Experimental results on three public traffic network datasets, METR-LA, PEMS-BAY, and EXPY-TKY, demonstrate that TESTAM achieves a better indication and modeling of recurring and non-recurring traffic.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ilan Naiman, N. Benjamin Erichson, Pu Ren, Michael W Mahoney, Omri Azencot

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs).However, GANs are unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to the these issues, they are (surprisingly) less considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KoVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leveraging spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stability of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KoVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KoVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KoVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate the empirical ground truth distribution.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

YongKyung Oh, Dongyoung Lim, Sungil Kim

Irregular sampling intervals and missing values in real-world time series data present challenges for conventional methods that assume consistent intervals and complete data. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) offer an alternative approach, utilizing neural networks combined with ODE solvers to learn continuous latent representations through parameterized vector fields. Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) extend Neural ODEs by incorporating a diffusion term, although this addition is not trivial, particularly when addressing irregular intervals and missing values. Consequently, careful design of drift and diffusion functions is crucial for maintaining stability and enhancing performance, while incautious choices can result in adverse properties such as the absence of strong solutions, stochastic destabilization, or unstable Euler discretizations, significantly affecting Neural SDEs' performance. In this study, we propose three stable classes of Neural SDEs: Langevin-type SDE, Linear Noise SDE, and Geometric SDE. Then, we rigorously demonstrate their robustness in maintaining excellent performance under distribution shift, while effectively preventing overfitting. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets for interpolation, forecasting, and classification tasks, and analyze the robustness of our methods with 30 public datasets under different missing rates. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in handling real-world irregular time series data.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yong Liu, Tengge Hu, Haoran Zhang, Haixu Wu, Shiyu Wang, Lintao Ma, Mingsheng Long

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Haeyong Kang, Jaehong Yoon, DaHyun Kim, Sung Ju Hwang, Chang Yoo

Neural Implicit Representation (NIR) has recently gained significant attention due to its remarkable ability to encode complex and high-dimensional data into representation space and easily reconstruct it through a trainable mapping function. However, NIR methods assume a one-to-one mapping between the target data and representation models regardless of data relevancy or similarity. This results in poor generalization over multiple complex data and limits their efficiency and scalability. Motivated by continual learning, this work investigates how to accumulate and transfer neural implicit representations for multiple complex video data over sequential encoding sessions. To overcome the limitation of NIR, we propose a novel method, Progressive Fourier Neural Representation (PFNR), that aims to find an adaptive and compact sub-module in Fourier space to encode videos in each training session. This sparsified neural encoding allows the neural network to hold free weights, enabling an improved adaptation for future videos. In addition, when learning a representation for a new video, PFNR transfers the representation of previous videos with frozen weights. This design allows the model to continuously accumulate high-quality neural representations for multiple videos while ensuring lossless decoding that perfectly preserves the learned representations for previous videos. We validate our PFNR method on the UVG8/17 and DAVIS50 video sequence benchmarks and achieve impressive performance gains over strong continual learning baselines.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Xiaodan Chen, Xiucheng Li, Bo Liu, Zhijun Li

Multivariate time series forecasting plays an important role in various applications ranging from meteorology study, traffic management to economics planning. In the past decades, many efforts have been made toward accurate and reliable forecasting methods development under the assumption of intact input data. However, the time series data from real-world scenarios is often partially observed due to device malfunction or costly data acquisition, which can seriously impede the performance of the existing approaches. A naive employment of imputation methods unavoidably involves error accumulation and leads to suboptimal solutions. Motivated by this, we propose a Biased Temporal Convolution Graph Network that jointly captures the temporal dependencies and spatial structure. In particular, we inject bias into the two carefully developed modules, the Multi-Scale Instance PartialTCN and Biased GCN, to account for missing patterns. The experimental results show that our proposed model is able to achieve up to $9.93$\% improvements over the existing methods on five real-world benchmark datasets. Our code is available at: https://github.com/chenxiaodanhit/BiTGraph.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Siqiao Xue, Xiaoming Shi, Zhixuan Chu, Yan Wang, Hongyan Hao, Fan Zhou, caigao jiang, Chen Pan, James Zhang, Qingsong Wen 等

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts. The code and data are available at \url{https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess}.