论文检索

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Jianwei Li, Jung-Eun Kim

Backdoor attacks pose severe security threats to large language models (LLMs), where a model behaves normally under benign inputs but produces malicious outputs when a hidden trigger appears. Existing backdoor removal methods typically assume prior knowledge of triggers, access to a clean reference model, or rely on aggressive finetuning configurations, and are often limited to classification tasks. However, such assumptions fall apart in real-world generative LLM settings. In this work, we propose a new framework for purifying **generative LLM** without any prior trigger knowledge or clean references. Through systematic sanity checks, we find that backdoor associations are redundantly encoded across MLP layers, while attention modules primarily amplify trigger signals without establishing the behavior. Leveraging this insight, we shift the focus from isolating specific backdoor triggers to cutting off the trigger–behavior associations, and design an immunization-inspired elimination approach: by constructing multiple synthetic backdoored variants of the given suspicious model, each trained with different malicious trigger–behavior pairs, and contrasting them with their clean counterparts. The recurring modifications across variants reveal a shared **"backdoor signature"**—analogous to antigens in a virus. Guided by this signature, we neutralize highly suspicious components in LLM and apply lightweight finetuning to restore its fluency, producing purified models that withstand diverse backdoor attacks and threat models while preserving generative capability.

Applications · Everything Else

Marius Miron, David Robinson, Milad Alizadeh, Ellen Gilsenan-McMahon, Gagan Narula, Emmanuel Chemla, Maddie Cusimano, Felix Effenberger, Masato Hagiwara, Benjamin Hoffman 等

Bioacoustics, the study of sounds produced by living organisms, plays a vital role in conservation, biodiversity monitoring, and behavioral studies. Many tasks in this field, such as species, individual, and behavior classification and detection, are well-suited to machine learning. However, they often suffer from limited annotated data, highlighting the need for a general-purpose bioacoustic encoder capable of extracting useful representations for diverse downstream tasks. Such encoders have been proposed before, but are often limited in scope due to a focus on a narrow range of species (typically birds), and a reliance on a single model architecture or training paradigm. Moreover, they are usually evaluated on a small set of tasks and datasets. In this work, we present a large-scale empirical study that covers aspects of bioacoustics that are relevant to research but have previously been scarcely considered: training data diversity and scale, model architectures and training recipes, and the breadth of evaluation tasks and datasets. We obtain encoders that are state-of-the-art on the existing and newly proposed benchmarks. We also identify *what matters* for training these encoders, such that this work can be extended when more data are available or better architectures are proposed. Specifically, across 26 datasets with tasks including species classification, detection, individual ID, and vocal repertoire discovery, we find that self-supervised pre-training followed by supervised post-training on a mixed bioacoustics + general-audio corpus yields the strongest in- and out-of-distribution performance. We show the importance of data diversity in both stages. To support ongoing research and applications, we release the model checkpoints as well as the Animal Vocalization Encoder library [AVEX](https://projects.earthspecies.org/avex/) (an API for model loading and inference, and a Python-based system for training and evaluating bioacoustics representation learning models)

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Yongxian Wei, Runxi Cheng, Weike Jin, Enneng Yang, Li Shen, LU HOU, SiNan Du, Chun Yuan, Xiaochun Cao, Dacheng Tao

Foundation models update slowly due to resource-intensive training, whereas domain-specific models evolve rapidly between releases. Model merging seeks to combine multiple expert models into a single, more capable model, reducing storage and serving costs while supporting decentralized development. Despite its potential, previous studies have primarily focused on merging visual classification models or Large Language Models (LLMs) for code and math tasks. Recently, Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) that extend LLMs through large-scale multimodal training have gained traction. However, no benchmark exists for model merging research that clearly divides the tasks of MLLM training and evaluation. In this paper, $(i)$ we introduce a model merging benchmark for MLLMs, which includes multiple tasks such as VQA, Geometry, Chart, OCR, and Grounding, studying both LoRA and full fine-tuning models. Moreover, we explore how model merging can combine different modalities (e.g., vision-language, audio-language, and video-language models), moving toward the Omni-language model. $(ii)$ We implement 10 model merging algorithms on the benchmark. Furthermore, we propose a novel method that removes noise from task vectors and robustly optimizes the merged vector based on a loss defined over task vector interactions, achieving an average performance gain of 2.48\%. $(iii)$ We find that model merging offers a promising way for building improved MLLMs without requiring training data. Our results also demonstrate that the complementarity among multiple modalities outperforms individual modalities.

Deep Learning · Robustness

Miaoyun Zhao, Qiang Zhang

Achieving group-robust generalization in the presence of spurious correlations remains a significant challenge, particularly when bias annotations are unavailable. Recent studies on Class-Conditional Distribution Balancing (CCDB) reveal that spurious correlations often stem from mismatches between the class-conditional and marginal distributions of bias attributes. They achieve promising results by addressing this issue through simple distribution matching in a bias-agnostic manner. However, CCDB approximates each distribution using a single Gaussian, which is overly simplistic and rarely holds in real-world applications. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Multi-stage data-Selective reTraining strategy (MST), which describes each distribution in greater detail using the hard confusion matrix. Building on these finer descriptions, we propose a fine-grained variant of CCDB, termed FG-CCDB, which enhances distribution matching through more precise confusion-cell-wise reweighting. FG-CCDB learns sample weights from a global perspective, effectively mitigating spurious correlations without incurring substantial storage or computational overhead. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MST serves as a reliable proxy for ground-truth bias annotations and can be seamlessly integrated with bias-supervised methods. Moreover, when combined with FG-CCDB, our method performs on par with bias-supervised approaches on binary classification tasks and significantly outperforms them in highly biased multi-class and multi-shortcut scenarios.

Theory · Learning Theory

Arshia Soltani Moakhar, Tanapoom Laoaron, Faraz Ghahremani, Kiarash Banihashem, MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi

This paper advances the theoretical understanding of active learning label complexity for decision trees as binary classifiers. We make two main contributions. First, we provide the first analysis of the **disagreement coefficient** for decision trees—a key parameter governing active learning label complexity. Our analysis holds under two natural assumptions required for achieving polylogarithmic label complexity: (i) each root-to-leaf path queries distinct feature dimensions, and (ii) the input data has a regular, grid-like structure. We show these assumptions are essential, as relaxing them leads to polynomial label complexity. Second, we present the first general active learning algorithm for binary classification that achieves a **multiplicative error guarantee**, producing a $(1+\epsilon)$-approximate classifier. By combining these results, we design an active learning algorithm for decision trees that uses only a **polylogarithmic number of label queries** in the dataset size, under the stated assumptions. Finally, we establish a label complexity lower bound, showing our algorithm’s dependence on the error tolerance $\epsilon$ is close to optimal.

Applications · Time Series

Wenhui Cui, Christopher M. Sandino, Hadi Pouransari, Ran Liu, Juri Minxha, Ellen Zippi, Erdrin Azemi, Behrooz Mahasseni

Hand gesture classification using high-quality structured data such as videos, images, and hand skeletons is a well-explored problem in computer vision. Alternatively, leveraging low-power, cost-effective bio-signals, e.g. surface electromyography (sEMG), allows for continuous gesture prediction on wearable devices. In this work, we aim to enhance EMG representation quality by aligning it with embeddings obtained from structured, high-quality modalities that provide richer semantic guidance, ultimately enabling zero-shot gesture generalization. Specifically, we propose EMBridge, a cross-modal representation learning framework that bridges the modality gap between EMG and pose. EMBridge learns high-quality EMG representations by introducing a Querying Transformer (Q-Former), a masked pose reconstruction loss, and a community-aware soft contrastive learning objective that aligns the relative geometry of the embedding spaces. We evaluate EMBridge on both in-distribution and unseen gesture classification tasks and demonstrate consistent performance gains over all baselines. To the best of our knowledge, EMBridge is the first cross-modal representation learning framework to achieve zero-shot gesture classification from wearable EMG signals, showing potential toward real-world gesture recognition on wearable devices.

Applications · Time Series

Cheng HE, Xu Huang, Gangwei Jiang, Zhaoyi Li, Defu Lian, Hong Xie, Enhong Chen, xijie liang, Zhengzengrong, Patrick P. C. Lee

Despite recent progress in time-series foundation models, challenges persist in improving representation learning and adapting to diverse downstream tasks. We introduce a General Time-series Model (GTM), which advances representation learning via a novel frequency-domain attention mechanism that captures time-granularity-aware features, an aspect underexplored in prior research. We further propose a novel pre-training strategy that unifies reconstruction and autoregressive objectives through a hybrid masking mechanism. Our pre-training strategy, combined with 2D positional encoding and span shuffling, enhances the robustness and generalization of representations. GTM is established as the first generative-task-agnostic model for time-series analysis, enabling seamless adaptation to various generative tasks without any task-specific modifications. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GTM consistently outperforms SOTA models on various generative tasks and achieves strong classification results with minimal adaptation. Furthermore, GTM exhibits clear scaling behavior, with accuracy improving as model size and pre-training data increase.

Computer Vision · Vision Models & Multimodal

Siyi Du, Xinzhe Luo, Declan O'regan, Chen Qin

Multimodal deep learning (MDL) has achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet its practical deployment is often hindered by incomplete multimodal data. Existing incomplete MDL methods either discard missing modalities, risking the loss of valuable task-relevant information, or recover them, potentially introducing irrelevant noise, leading to the discarding-imputation dilemma. To address this dilemma, in this paper, we propose DyMo, a new inference-time dynamic modality selection framework that adaptively identifies and integrates reliable recovered modalities, fully exploring task-relevant information beyond the conventional discard-or-impute paradigm. Central to DyMo is a novel selection algorithm that maximizes multimodal task-relevant information for each test sample. Since direct estimation of such information at test time is intractable due to the unknown data distribution, we theoretically establish a connection between information and the task loss, which we compute at inference time as a tractable proxy. Building on this, a novel principled reward function is proposed to guide modality selection. In addition, we design a flexible multimodal network architecture compatible with arbitrary modality combinations, alongside a tailored training strategy for robust representation learning. Extensive experiments on diverse natural and medical image datasets show that DyMo significantly outperforms state-of-the-art incomplete/dynamic MDL methods across various missing-data scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com//siyi-wind/DyMo.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Tiberiu Sosea, Cornelia Caragea

In this paper, we propose Label-Aware Noise Elimination (LANE), a new approach to learning with noisy labels. At its core, LANE introduces a new metric---label-aware margin---aimed at quantifying the degree of noise of each training example (or quality thereof). LANE leverages the semantic relations between classes and monitors the training dynamics of the model on each training example to dynamically lower the weight of training examples that are perceived to have noisy labels. We test the effectiveness of LANE on multiple text classification tasks and benchmark our approach on a wide variety of datasets with various numbers of classes and amounts of label noise. LANE considerably outperforms strong baselines on all datasets and settings, obtaining significant improvements ranging from an average improvement of 2.88% in F1 on manually annotated datasets to a considerable average improvement of 4.75% F1 on datasets with high level of injected label noise. We carry out a comprehensive analysis of LANE and identify the key components that lead to its success.

General Machine Learning · Representation Learning

Zeeshan Hayder, Ali Cheraghian, Lars Petersson, Mehrtash Harandi, Richard Hartley

Knowledge Distillation (KD) is a widely adopted framework for compressing large models into compact student models by transferring knowledge from a high-capacity teacher. Despite its success, KD presents two persistent challenges: (1) the trade-off between optimizing for the primary task loss and mimicking the teacher's outputs, and (2) the gradient disparity arising from architectural and representational mismatches between teacher and student models. In this work, we propose Dynamic Trade-off Optimization for Knowledge Distillation (DTO-KD), a principled multi-objective optimization formulation of KD that dynamically balances task and distillation losses at the gradient level. Specifically, DTO-KD resolves two critical issues in gradient-based KD optimization: (i) gradient conflict, where task and distillation gradients are directionally misaligned, and (ii) gradient dominance, where one objective suppresses learning progress on the other. Our method adapts per-iteration trade-offs by leveraging gradient projection techniques to ensure balanced and constructive updates. We evaluate DTO-KD on large-scale benchmarks including ImageNet-1K for classification and COCO for object detection. Across both tasks, DTO-KD consistently outperforms prior KD methods, yielding state-of-the-art accuracy and improved convergence behavior. Furthermore, student models trained with DTO-KD exceed the performance of their non-distilled counterparts, demonstrating the efficacy of our multi-objective formulation for KD.

Zhe Zhang, Runlin Liu, Aishan Liu, Xingyu Liu, Xiang Gao, Hailong Sun

The evaluation of code-generating Large Language Models (LLMs) is fundamentally constrained by two intertwined challenges: a reliance on static, easily contaminated problem sources and the use of superficial, low-rigor testing. This paper introduces a new benchmark construction philosophy, Dual Scaling, designed to systematically address both limitations. Our approach involves continuously scaling the source of problems from dynamic, real-world code repositories and systematically scaling the rigor of tests via automated, high-coverage Property-Based Testing (PBT). We instantiate this philosophy in CODE2BENCH, an end-to-end framework that leverages Scope Graph analysis for principled dependency classification and a 100% branch coverage quality gate to ensure test suite integrity. Using this framework, we construct CODE2BENCH-2509, a new benchmark suite with native instances in both Python and Java. Our extensive evaluation of 10 state-of-the-art LLMs on CODE2BENCH-2509, powered by a novel "diagnostic fingerprint" visualization, yields three key insights: (1) models exhibit a fundamental performance gap, excelling at API application (Weakly Self-Contained tasks) but struggling with algorithmic synthesis (Self-Contained tasks); (2) a model’s performance is profoundly shaped by the target language’s ecosystem, a nuance we are the first to systematically quantify; and (3) our rigorous, scaled testing is critical in uncovering an "illusion of correctness" prevalent in simpler benchmarks. Our work presents a robust, scalable, and diagnostic paradigm for the next generation of LLM evaluation in software engineering. The code, data, and results are available at https://code2bench.github.io/.

Computer Vision · Classification and Understanding

Huaijie Wang, De Cheng, Guozhang Li, Zhipeng Xu, Lingfeng He, Jie Li, Nannan Wang, Xinbo Gao

Video Class-Incremental Learning (VCIL) seeks to develop models that continuously learn new action categories over time without forgetting previously acquired knowledge. Unlike traditional Class-Incremental Learning (CIL), VCIL introduces the added complexity of spatiotemporal structures, making it particularly challenging to mitigate catastrophic forgetting while effectively capturing both frame-shared semantics and temporal dynamics. Existing approaches either rely on exemplar rehearsal, raising concerns over memory and privacy, or adapt static image-based methods that neglect temporal modeling. To address these limitations, we propose Spatiotemporal Preservation and Routing (StPR), a unified and exemplar-free VCIL framework that explicitly disentangles and preserves spatiotemporal information. We begin by introducing Frame-Shared Semantics Distillation (FSSD), which identifies semantically stable and meaningful channels by jointly considering channel-wise sensitivity and classification contribution. By selectively regularizing these important semantic channels, FSSD preserves prior knowledge while allowing for adaptation. Building on this preserved semantic space, we further design a Temporal Decomposition-based Mixture-of-Experts (TD-MoE), which dynamically routes task-specific experts according to temporal dynamics, thereby enabling inference without task IDs or stored exemplars. Through the synergy of FSSD and TD-MoE, StPR progressively leverages spatial semantics and temporal dynamics, culminating in a unified, exemplar-free VCIL framework. Extensive experiments on UCF101, HMDB51, SSv2 and Kinetics400 show that our method outperforms existing baselines while offering improved interpretability and efficiency in VCIL.

Theory · Learning Theory

Ichiro Hashimoto

In this paper, we provide sufficient conditions of benign overfitting of fixed width leaky ReLU two-layer neural network classifiers trained on mixture data via gradient descent. Our results are derived by establishing directional convergence of the network parameters and classification error bound of the convergent direction. Our classification error bound also lead to the discovery of a newly identified phase transition. Previously, directional convergence in (leaky) ReLU neural networks was established only for gradient flow. Due to the lack of directional convergence, previous results on benign overfitting were limited to those trained on nearly orthogonal data. All of our results hold on mixture data, which is a broader data setting than the nearly orthogonal data setting in prior work. We demonstrate our findings by showing that benign overfitting occurs with high probability in a much wider range of scenarios than previously known. Our results also allow us to characterize cases when benign overfitting provably fails even if directional convergence occurs. Our work thus provides a more complete picture of benign overfitting in leaky ReLU two-layer neural networks.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Dang Nguyen, Jiping Li, Jinghao Zheng, Baharan Mirzasoleiman

Synthetically augmenting training datasets with diffusion models has become an effective strategy for improving the generalization of image classifiers. However, existing approaches typically increase dataset size by 10–30× and struggle to ensure generation diversity, leading to substantial computational overhead. In this work, we introduce TADA (**TA**rgeted **D**iffusion **A**ugmentation), a principled framework that selectively augments examples that are not learned early in training using faithful synthetic images that preserve semantic features while varying noise. We show that augmenting only this targeted subset consistently outperforms augmenting the entire dataset. Through theoretical analysis on a two-layer CNN, we prove that TADA improves generalization by promoting homogeneity in feature learning speed without amplifying noise. Extensive experiments demonstrate that by augmenting only 30–40% of the training data, TADA improves generalization by up to 2.8% across diverse architectures including ResNet, ViT, ConvNeXt, and Swin Transformer on CIFAR-10/100, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet, using optimizers such as SGD and SAM. Notably, TADA combined with SGD outperforms the state-of-the-art optimizer SAM on CIFAR-100 and TinyImageNet. Furthermore, TADA shows promising improvements on object detection benchmarks, demonstrating its applicability beyond image classification. Our code is available at https://github.com/BigML-CS-UCLA/TADA.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

De Cheng, Mingyue Zeng, Zhipeng Xu, Di Xu, Nannan Wang, Xinbo Gao

Incremental Object Detection (IOD) enables AI systems to continuously learn new object classes over time while retaining knowledge of previously learned categories. This capability is essential for adapting to dynamic environments without forgetting prior information. Although existing IOD methods have made progress in mitigating catastrophic forgetting, they usually lack explicit and quantitative modeling of information conflicts during knowledge preservation, making task boundaries ambiguous. Such conflicts often stem from the fact that a single image can contain objects belonging to previous, present, and future tasks, where unlabeled past and future objects are often mistakenly treated as background. In this paper, we propose a novel approach grounded in Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) to alleviate conflict knowledge preservation caused by task interference. Specifically, we introduce the Interference Knowledge Isolated Elastic Weight Consolidation (IKI-EWC) framework for IOD, which leverages the mispredictions of the old detector on new task data to estimate task conflicts and suppresses them at the parameter level. By reformulating the Bayesian posterior of model parameters, we derive a mathematical relationship between previously learned knowledge and interference knowledge, enabling targeted elimination of conflicts during model weight updates. In addition, we also propose a prototype-based knowledge calibration (PKC) mechanism to further preserve old knowledge during the training of the objector's classification head. This method employs a learnable projection layer to compensate semantic drift in old class prototypes, and then jointly trains the classification head using both calibrated prototypes and current task features, thereby mitigating forgetting caused by classifier updates. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC and MS-COCO benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, outperforming state-of-the-art approaches in various settings.

Ambarish Moharil

This paper investigates how multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) can be represented in non-Euclidean spaces, with emphasis on the Poincaré model of hyperbolic geometry. We aim to capture the geometric evolution of their weighted topology and self-organization over time. Instead of restricting analysis to single checkpoints, we construct temporal parameter-graphs across $T$ snapshots of the optimization process. This reflects the view that neural networks encode information not only in their weights but also in the trajectory traced during training. Drawing on the idea that many complex networks admit embeddings in hidden metric spaces where distances correspond to connection likelihood, we present a geometric and temporal graph-based meta learning framework for obtaining dynamic hyperbolic representations of the underlying neural parameter graphs. Our model embeds temporal parameter-graphs in the Poincaré ball and learns from them while maintaining equivariance to within-snapshot neuron permutations and invariance to permutations of past snapshots. In doing so, it preserves functional equivalence across time and recovers the network’s latent geometry. Experiments on regression and classification tasks with trained MLPs show that hyperbolic temporal representations expose how structure emerges during training, offering intrinsic explanations of self-organisation in a given model training environment.

Computer Vision · Classification and Understanding

Chunming Li, Shidong Wang, Haofeng Zhang

On-the-Fly Category Discovery (OCD) aims to address the limitations of transductive learning and closed-set prediction in category discovery tasks by enabling real-time classification of potential future categories using prior knowledge. Existing OCD approaches typically rely on hash-based encodings that map features into low-dimensional hash spaces and directly classify test samples using these encodings. Despite efforts to mitigate the sensitivity of hash functions during testing, these methods still suffer from severe overestimation of the number of categories. In this work, we thoroughly analyze the practical limitations of current OCD methods and formally identify a performance lower bound for the task. Based on this insight, we reformulate OCD into two sub-tasks: Open-Set Recognition and an Fully Novel OCD setting. For all samples, we employ a soft class thresholding strategy to directly detect known classes, which significantly enhances the deployment feasibility of OCD to downstream tasks. For outlier samples, we propose Adaptive Gaussian Expansion (AGE), a dynamic category discovery method that models the Probability Density Functions (PDF) of different classes to uncover potential novel categories in real time. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Computer Vision · Classification and Understanding

Kaiting Liu, Hazel Doughty

Video recognition models are typically trained on fixed taxonomies which are often too coarse, collapsing distinctions in object, manner or outcome under a single label. As tasks and definitions evolve, such models cannot accommodate emerging distinctions and collecting new annotations and retraining to accommodate such changes is costly. To address these challenges, we introduce category splitting, a new task where an existing classifier is edited to refine a coarse category into finer subcategories, while preserving accuracy elsewhere. We propose a zero-shot editing method that leverages the latent compositional structure of video classifiers to expose fine-grained distinctions without additional data. We further show that low-shot fine-tuning, while simple, is highly effective and benefits from our zero-shot initialization. Experiments on our new video benchmarks for category splitting demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms vision-language baselines, improving accuracy on the newly split categories without sacrificing performance on the rest. Project page: https://kaitingliu.github.io/Category-Splitting/.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Xiaoyang li, Linwei Tao, Haohui Lu, Minjing Dong, Junbin Gao, Chang Xu

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong predictive performance on relational data; however, their confidence estimates often misalign with actual predictive correctness, posing significant limitations for deployment in safety-critical settings. While existing graph-aware calibration methods seek to mitigate this limitation, they primarily depend on coarse one-hop statistics, such as neighbor-predicted confidence, or latent node embeddings, thereby neglecting the fine-grained structural heterogeneity inherent in graph topology. In this work, we propose Wavelet-Aware Temperature Scaling (WATS), a post-hoc calibration framework for node classification that assigns node-specific temperatures based on tunable heat-kernel graph wavelet features. Specifically, WATS harnesses the scalability and topology sensitivity of graph wavelets to refine confidence estimates, all without necessitating model retraining or access to neighboring logits or predictions. Extensive evaluations across nine benchmark datasets with varying graph structures and three GNN backbones demonstrate that WATS achieves the lowest Expected Calibration Error (ECE) among most of the compared methods, outperforming both classical and graph-specific baselines by up to 41.2\% in ECE and reducing calibration variance by 15.84\% on average compared with graph-specific methods. Moreover, WATS remains computationally efficient, scaling well across graphs of diverse sizes and densities. The implementation is available at \url{https://github.com/lxy1134/WATS.git}

Theory · Interpretability and Visualization

Chi-Ning Chou, Artem Kirsanov, Yao-Yuan Yang, SueYeon Chung

Generalization—the ability to perform well beyond the training context—is a hallmark of biological and artificial intelligence, yet anticipating unseen failures remains a central challenge. Conventional approaches often take a "bottom-up" mechanistic route by reverse-engineering interpretable features or circuits to build explanatory models. While insightful, these methods often struggle to provide the high-level, predictive signals for anticipating failure in real-world deployment. Here, we propose using a "top-down" approach to studying generalization failures inspired by medical biomarkers: identifying system-level measurements that serve as robust indicators of a model’s future performance. Rather than mapping out detailed internal mechanisms, we systematically design and test network markers to probe structure–function links, identify prognostic indicators, and validate predictions in real-world settings. In image classification, we find that task-relevant geometric properties of in-distribution (ID) object manifolds consistently forecast poor out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. In particular, reductions in two geometric measures—effective manifold dimensionality and utility—predict weaker OOD performance across diverse architectures, optimizers, and datasets. We apply this finding to transfer learning with ImageNet-pretrained models. We consistently find that the same geometric patterns predict OOD transfer performance more reliably than ID accuracy. This work demonstrates that representational geometry can expose hidden vulnerabilities, offering more robust guidance for model selection and AI interpretability.